Mumbai: Retail and high networth traders have piled on bets in stock futures at record levels, encouraged by the bullish momentum in mid and smallcap stocks and the Nifty’s range-bound moves.

Their net open positions in stock futures – calculated as a net of long or bullish and short or bearish bets on stock futures were at 28.57 lakh on Friday, slightly lower than Thursday’s record open position of net 28.59 lakh, as per data from NSE.

“The client side, consisting of retail and HNI players have shown record activity in stock futures trading, as the headline indices have been moving in a narrow range, limiting index trading opportunities,” said Chandan Taparia, head of technical and derivatives research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

The Nifty has remained in a broad range of 22,300-24,800 since the start of the West Asia conflict in late February. After dipping in March, the index has recovered some of its losses and is still 5.8% down since the conflict. The Nifty Midcap 150 and Smallcap 250 are up 3% and 5.6% respectively, since late February.

Taparia said midcap and smallcap indices have been outperforming the Nifty and Sensex, with several stocks touching all-time highs and seeing strong trading activity.

“While benchmark indices continue to be impacted by FII selling and geopolitical uncertainty, mid and smallcap stocks are being driven more by domestic factors, which is leading to higher participation in stock futures in these segments.”
Stocks with highest build-up
Retail traders, whose positions make a majority of these volumes, are riding the momentum, said Vipin Kumar, AVP- derivatives and technical research at Globe Capital Market.
“During the last week of March and the first week of April 2026, we saw record net long open positions by clients and record net short positions by FIIs in Index futures. But right now, the lack of momentum (rangebound trading) in indices is causing this shift by retail clients from index futures to stock futures,” he said.

Foreign investors, who usually bet on index futures in India, have largely remained short or bearish on the headline indices since the start of the year. The Long Short Ratio of foreign portfolio investors, a measure of their bullish bets versus bearish, was at nearly 14% on Friday, showing they remain predominantly pessimistic.

Elevated trading volumes among domestic individual traders come despite the attempts by the government and the capital markets regulator to tamp down activity in the local futures and options market.

The government had raised the securities transaction tax (STT) on futures to 0.05% from 0.02%, a 150% increase.

“Higher volatility typically leads to higher trading activity. This is why, despite a higher STT, we are seeing increased trading activity and higher open positions by participants,” said Kumar.

That said, their net open positions in index futures, stock and index options are still lower than the levels seen in late 2024 and early 2025.

“This could be because stock options are not as liquid as futures and key traders avoid options due to theta or time decay, which reduces the value of options as one moves close to expiry,” said Taparia.

Beyond war-related inflation fears, longer-term borrowing costs in the US are increasingly being driven by a rise in so-called real yields, which strip out inflation, indicating bond investors aren’t just worried about price pressures from the Iran war.

Other culprits include signs already large public debt burdens will swell even further, fallout from the AI investment boom and the mounting chance central banks such as the Federal Reserve will raise rather than cut interest rates.

The speculation, highlighted by strategists at ING Bank NV, Goldman Sachs Group and Barclays Plc, is that the recent jump in some long-term yields will not fully reverse even if the inflation spurred by costlier oil retreats.

That risks keeping market borrowing costs elevated around multi-year highs even after the conflict ends, maintaining pressure on governments and economies.

“The argument that duration is selling off globally due to inflation fears is hard to square with market pricing of medium- and long-term inflation risk,” said Jonathan Hill, head of US inflation strategy at Barclays. “Instead, the interaction between rising debt levels, potentially higher neutral rates, and AI could be driving real rates higher.”

The neutral rate is the level which neither spurs nor slows the economy. While the surge in oil prices may be capturing headlines, breakeven rates that measure the inflation expectations of bond-markets haven’t risen as far as overall rates in the US and UK. Hill notes that even amid war, 10-year breakevens are 50 basis points below where they were in the first half of 2022, when the US Fed was jacking up rates.

Technical analysts expect Nifty to remain rangebound with a mildly bullish undertone this week, as the index continues to consolidate amid mixed domestic and global cues. Most experts see the 23,800–24,000 zone as a crucial breakout hurdle, while the 23,150–23,250 band is expected to provide key support on the downside.

AJIT MISHRA
SVP- RESEARCH, RELIGARE BROKING

Where is Nifty headed?
Going ahead, the Nifty continues to trade with a corrective bias and a downward shift in its trading range, reflecting indecisiveness amid mixed domestic and global cues. Immediate support is placed around the 23,150–23,250 zone, followed by the 22,900 mark. On the upside, the 23,800–24,000 zone remains a key hurdle, and a decisive breakout above this band could trigger fresh momentum towards the 24,500–24,650 zone. Trading Strategies
One may consider a “sell on rise” approach in the 23,800–24,000 range in Nifty, with a stop-loss at 24,200 and downside targets around 23,400 and 23,250. Traders may also consider accumulating energy and pharma-related ETFs on dips. For energy exposure, Energy ETF can be accumulated in the 39–41 zone with a stop-loss at 37 for positional targets of 46 and 50. Similarly, Pharmabees can be accumulated in the 24–25 range with a stoploss at 23 for positional targets of 28 and 30.

TOP STOCK BETS
Angel One – CMP Rs 339.35, stop loss at Rs 318, target Rs 378.
Angel One is witnessing renewed buying interest after a volume-backed breakout from consolidation, signalling improving momentum and potential upside continuation. Steel Authority of India – CMP Rs 201.21, stop loss at Rs 189, target Rs 224.

SAIL has reclaimed its multi-year high with improving volumes, indicating strengthening momentum and potential for further upside.

RAJESH PALVIYA
HEAD OF RESEARCH, AXIS SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed?
The market remains in a consolidation phase rather than trend exhaustion, with the broader structure still favouring bulls. The 23,800–23,850 zone has blocked seven breakout attempts in two weeks, though the tight range suggests a strong move once crossed. A decisive weekly close above 24,000 and then 24,126 could trigger a rally towards 24,600. On the downside, 23,250–23,150 remains key support. The weekly RSI staying flat above its reference line indicates the market is in a holding pattern, supporting a patient but selectively bullish stance.

Trading Strategies
Traders can implement a moderately bullish strategy known as a Bull Call Spread with reduced premium outflow and a lower breakeven point, set for the June 2nd expiry. In this net delta long strategy, traders need to buy one lot of the 23,800 call strike at Rs 222 and simultaneously sell one lot of the 24,100 call strike at Rs 111.

This setup results in a maximum outflow of Rs 7,215, which is the maximum loss that can be incurred. If Nifty closes above 23,911 at expiry, the strategy will begin to generate a profit. However, while the risk is limited, so too is the potential profit. The maximum gain is capped at Rs 12,285, as the profit from the long 23,800 strike call will be offset by the sold 24,100 strike call if Nifty closes above 23,911 at expiry.

TOP STOCK BETS
Sammaan Capital– Buy at Rs 161-158, stop loss at Rs 148, target Rs 185-195.

Following last week’s sharp 13% rally, the stock broke out of its six-month Rs 134– 157 trading range on strong volumes, while daily and weekly RSI levels stayed above 50 indicate strengthening momentum and rising buying interest.

Trent – Buy at Rs 4,297-4,255, stop loss at Rs 4,155, target Rs 4,655-4,700.

On the daily chart, the stock confirmed a “Flag”, a continuation pattern breakout around the 4210 level, accompanied by huge volumes. The daily and weekly RSI is in positive territory, quoting above the 50 mark, which signals rising strength.

ROHAN SHAH
TECHNICAL ANALYST, ASIT C. MEHTA INVESTMENT INTERMEDIATES

Where is Nifty headed?
After encountering resistance around the 24500–24700 zone, the index has undergone a measured pullback. Technically, the weekly structure reflects tight volatility compression with the formation of an inside bar setup. A decisive move above 24000 would trigger fresh directional momentum and potentially pave the way towards the 24700 level.

Meanwhile, on the downside, 23200 and 22700 are expected to act as key support levels. Trading Strategy It would be prudent to Buy Nifty Futures above the intermediate resistance level of 24000 for an upside target of 24700, maintaining a stop-loss below 23700 levels.

TOP STOCK BETS
Vishal Mega Mart – CMP Rs 121, stop loss at Rs 114, target Rs 135.

After rebounding sharply from the Rs 100 zone, the stock is signalling a possible trend reversal, with a bullish inverse Head & Shoulders pattern and improving RSI momentum supporting the move.

Vardhman Textiles – CMP Rs 610, stop loss at Rs 578, target Rs 675.

The stock has given a breakout from a four-year Ascending Triangle pattern, signalling strength in the prevailing uptrend. The move has been backed by healthy volume activity, indicating fresh buying interest and improving sentiment.

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Fervo Energy FRVO -9.76%decrease; red down pointing triangle, a geothermal startup that made its public debut this month, is closer than many to fulfilling that promise.

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