Binance’s Bitcoin derivatives index has fallen to 0.35, with analysts noting similar readings appeared near past market lows.

Bitcoin (BTC), which was trading nearly 300 bucks around the $69,000 level at the time of this writing, has recorded readings from multiple on-chain indicators that often precede major trend changes, including weakening derivative momentum and falling short-term holder capital.

The signals have come at a time when the flagship cryptocurrency is struggling to hold recent gains, leaving traders divided over whether the current setup hints at a rebound or deeper weakness.

Derivatives Index and Short-Term Holder Capital Draw Attention

In a March 9 update, on-chain analyst Amr Taha wrote that the Binance Bitcoin derivatives market index has dropped to about 0.35. According to the analyst, the reading is close to the levels seen in July and August 2024 and lower than the 0.43 recorded in April 2025. In the past, readings near these levels appeared during major market lows, which were followed by prices going up significantly.

In the same post, the analyst shared a chart tracking the market cap of BTC in the possession of short-term holders, and per that chart, the figure has fallen to about $390 billion, down from around $437 billion recorded on April 7, 2025.

According to Taha, large declines in this metric have often been precursors to major capitulation events among short-term holders. For example, the same situation happened on April 8, 2025 (which is the day after the previous value of $437 billion was recorded), when heavy selling pressure pushed BTC toward $78,000 before it later climbed above $108,000.

Elsewhere, analyst GugaOnChain described the current situation as a “No Traction Engine” diagnosis, pointing to the Network Value to Transaction Value (NVT) ratio, which jumped 77% to reach 41.34.

NVT compares BTC’s market cap to its on-chain transaction volume, and the increase recorded suggests that the price is moving without corresponding network activity.

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According to the expert, STH-MVRV sitting at 0.76 is a confirmation that retail investors are realizing losses, while the Coinbase Premium turning negative at -0.0048 shows that there is institutional selling pressure.

“The ‘No Traction Engine’ diagnosis is a severe warning,” they wrote. “Do not be deceived by momentary stability or rebounds without volume.”

Mixed On-Chain Signals

The indicator convergence described above is happening when Bitcoin is trading in a narrow range, with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East causing it some volatility. The asset briefly reached $74,000 last week, but on March 8, it fell below $66,000 per CoinGecko data before bouncing back to its current level above $68,000.

Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $568 million in new money come in last week, making it the second week in a row that there have been positive flows after months of steady withdrawals.

However, daily data showed some choppiness, with strong inflows early in the week giving way to nearly $350 million in outflows last Friday, according to SoSoValue. The pattern suggests that some investors are still being careful, even though new money is coming into the market.

Strategy disclosed a major Bitcoin purchase in a March 9 filing, adding 17,994 BTC to its balance sheet last week.

The company’s latest filing revealed that the Bitcoin (BTC) was acquired between March 2 and March 8 for about $1.28 billion, with an average purchase price of $70,946 per coin.

Following the purchase, Strategy’s total holdings reached 738,731 BTC, accumulated for roughly $56.04 billion at an average cost of $75,862 per bitcoin.

Stock sales used to fund the purchase

The acquisition was largely financed through equity sales. Strategy sold 6.3 million shares of Class A common stock, generating about $900 million in net proceeds.

The company also issued 3.7 million shares of its Stretch preferred stock (STRC), raising an additional $377 million. Together, the transactions brought in roughly $1.3 billion, which was used to fund the latest bitcoin purchase.

Strategy still has significant room to raise additional capital through its at-the-market programs. The company reported that $6.7 billion remains available for future sales of MSTR shares, along with $20.3 billion tied to its Strike preferred stock (STRK) and $3.2 billion linked to the Stretch preferred series.

Shares of MSTR were slightly higher in pre-market trading following the disclosure.

Long-term Bitcoin strategy continues

Strategy has steadily accumulated Bitcoin since 2020 under the leadership of executive chairman Michael Saylor, who has repeatedly said the company intends to keep buying the asset as part of its long-term treasury strategy.

The firm also updated its Omnibus Sales Agreement with a group of underwriters that includes TD Securities, Barclays Capital, and Morgan Stanley.

The revision allows Strategy to appoint a second sales agent for certain securities during pre-market and after-hours sessions. According to the filing, the change gives the company greater flexibility when executing large transactions outside regular trading hours.

Strategy remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. The company has continued to increase its holdings through a mix of cash reserves, debt offerings, and equity sales.

Nonfungible token platform Gondi said it has disabled the faulty smart contract that allowed a hacker to steal $230,000 worth of NFTs from the protocol, adding it is now in the process of compensating affected customers.

Gondi said in an X post on Monday that the hacker exploited the “Sell & Repay” contract, which lets borrowers sell escrowed NFTs and automatically repay loans on the platform.

Gondi noted that an updated version of that contract was deployed on Feb. 20 but didn’t confirm how the hacker managed to exploit it. Gondi said no other part of the platform was affected by the exploit.

Data from Ethereum block explorer Etherscan shows 78 NFTs were stolen on Monday at about 8:12 am UTC. Blockchain security platform Blockaid estimated the damage to be $230,000.

In an update, Gondi said its “focus has shifted entirely to making affected users whole” and that Blockaid and an independent auditor have since reviewed the platform, concluding it to be safe to use.

That includes repaying, renegotiating, refinancing loans and starting new loans in addition to buying, selling, trading and listing NFTs on the platform.

Gondi said it has not yet deployed a fix to the Sell & Repay contract, which has now been disabled.

Crypto Samaritans help Gondi recover NFTs

While Blockaid said the hacker had started selling some of the stolen NFTs, members of the NFT community managed to recover and return Doodle, Aluminum Gazer, Lil Pudgy and Servant of the Muse NFTs, Gondi noted.

“We are in active conversations on additional items and expect more to follow, including Taxmen.”