The current bear market is not as bad as those from previous years, according to Matt Hougan. 

“The folks saying this [crypto] winter is worse than 2018 or 2022 don’t remember 2018 or 2022,” said Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan on Tuesday.

In 2018, “we had $3,000 Bitcoin and a ‘global computer’ [Ethereum] with no applications and limited throughput,” he said before adding, “In 2022, we had a total market collapse and a regulator that wanted to put us out of business.”

Things are a little different today as we have “stablecoins going to $3 trillion, tokenization going to $200 trillion, a positive regulatory climate, and better tokenomics,” he said.

Additionally, BlackRock and Apollo are building on DeFi, there is a “massively built out infrastructure,” ETFs, and “rising concerns about fiat currency.”

“So, yep, I’m optimistic. It doesn’t mean smooth sailing, but I’m excited for the ride.”

Previous Bear Markets Were Apocalyptic

The current bear market has seen total capitalization decline 49% from its peak of just below $4.4 trillion in October to its low of $2.23 trillion on Feb. 6. This is much shallower than previous bear markets, but it is not over yet. In 2018, markets collapsed by 88%, and in 2022, they crashed by around 73% from the previous cycle peak to the bear market bottoms.

The 2022 FTX crash “was dark,” and 2018 “was borderline crypto extinction sentiment,” commented the Kobeissi Letter. The March 2020 Covid crash was also apocalyptic, with markets tanking 56% in less than a month.

The difference this time, as pointed out by Hougan, is that the fundamentals for crypto are much stronger. Many analysts believe the current market slump is driven not by crypto-native factors but by broader macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns.

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Glassnode reported that Bitcoin’s crash to $60,000 on Feb. 6 “imposed drastic psychological pressure on ‘diamond hands’ comparable to the May 2022 Luna crash.”

“Simply put, long-term holders realized significant losses — a rare shift in conviction typically seen in deeper stages of bear markets.”

The recent drop to $60k imposed drastic psychological pressure on “diamond hands,” comparable to the May 2022 LUNA crash.
In both cases, the 7D EMA of Long-Term Holder SOPR fell below 1 after trading for 1-2 years above it.
Simply put, long-term holders realized significant… pic.twitter.com/xc6bXzwPYx

— glassnode (@glassnode) February 16, 2026

Long Term Holders Still in Profit

Alphractal founder Joao Wedson said on Monday that the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for long-term holders stands at 0.36, “meaning long-term holders are still, on average, in profit.”

“When Long-Term Holders’ NUPL enters negative territory, it means even the most convicted participants are holding unrealized losses. Historically, this marks the phase of maximum market depression.”

In previous cycles, “this was the final phase before the start of a new bull run,” he said, noting that we are not there yet.

Bitcoin was trading around $68,000 at the time of writing after failing again to top $70,000 on Monday.

Investors are most bearish on the dollar in over a decade, per Bank of America’s (BofA) latest survey and that extreme bet could breed bitcoin BTC$68,382.04 volatility, just not the way crypto bulls have become used to.

BofA’s February survey shows investor positioning in the U.S. dollar has fallen to its most negative (bearish) level since at least early 2012, with net exposure at a record underweight. This is driven by concerns over further deterioration in the U.S. labor market, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Since its inception, bitcoin has mostly moved in the opposite direction of the U.S. Dollar Index, rising when the greenback slides and falling when it strengthens. That tracks for two big reasons: As a dollar-denominated asset, a softer buck makes BTC cheaper to buy and vice versa. Plus, a strong dollar tightens financial conditions globally, hammering risk assets like bitcoin and the reverse holds when it weakens.

So, if history is a guide, the record bearish dollar positioning, a sign of investors aligned for a weaker dollar, could be termed a classic bullish tailwind for bitcoin.

But wait, there’s a twist. Since early 2025, and especially lately, bitcoin has developed a weird positive link to the dollar. DXY plunged over 9% last year and another 1% this year. Yet BTC dropped 6% in 2025 and is down 21% year-to-date. Their 90-day correlation hit 0.60 on Monday, the highest since April 2025, according to data source TradingView.

If that link sticks, a deeper slide in the dollar index may not bode well for bitcoin. But the flip side is a dollar bounce, fueled by a short squeeze, could drag BTC higher with it.

When investors pile into extreme bearish positions, any unexpected price bounce forces them to buy back en masse to limit losses, creating a short squeeze. This frantic covering propels the asset price higher, amplifying volatility skyward.

“Record short positioning raises the risk of volatility in major USD pairs; downside may extend on weak US data, but crowded trade dynamics increase potential for sharp short-covering rallies,” InvestingLive’s Chief Asia-Pacific Currency Analyst Eamonn Sheridan said in a market update.

At press time, the dollar index was up 0.25% on the day at 97.13 and bitcoin changed hands at $68,150, down 1%, according to CoinDesk data.

TLDR:

• • Axelar Network has integrated Stellar, connecting its payments infrastructure with cross-chain interoperability tools
  • Solv Protocol, Stronghold, and Squid Router launched live on the Axelar-Stellar integration at launch day.
  • Stronghold bridges SHx between Stellar and Ethereum, maintaining a unified 1:1 token supply across both chains.
  • Axelar’s 2026 roadmap targets compliant, institutional-grade infrastructure, aligning closely with Stellar’s focus.

Axelar Network has completed its integration with Stellar, linking two key infrastructure layers in the digital asset space.

The move connects Stellar’s payments and asset issuance capabilities with Axelar’s cross-chain interoperability protocol. At launch, Solv Protocol, Stronghold, and Squid Router are already live and operational.

The integration opens new pathways for tokenization, trading, and yield products across blockchain networks for institutional and retail participants alike.

New Cross-Chain Capabilities Reach Builders Immediately

Axelar Network confirmed the integration is live, with projects already building on the combined infrastructure. Stellar brings high throughput, low fees, and native compliance tooling to the table.

Its ecosystem includes payment providers, fintech platforms, and capital markets participants with an established developer base.

The Axelar team announced the milestone on X, stating: “Stellar is now live on Axelar. This integration expands institutional-grade onchain finance, connecting @StellarOrg’s strengths in payments and asset issuance with Axelar’s interoperability layer. At launch, @SolvProtocol, @strongholdpay, and @squidrouter are already live.”

Solv Protocol is among the first to build on the combined stack. Solv is a major allocator in tokenized real-world assets and holds the largest onchain Bitcoin reserve.

Through Axelar and Stellar, Solv can extend yield-bearing products into cross-chain markets. Builders can bridge solvBTC to Stellar today using Solv’s cross-chain application.

Stronghold is bridging its SHx token between Stellar and Ethereum through Axelar’s protocol. The bridge maintains a 1:1 supply across both networks while supporting consistent liquidity.

As noted in the announcement, the bridge allows “SHx holders to move assets freely between the two networks while maintaining a unified 1:1 supply.” SHx holders can already move assets between the two chains via Squid Router.

Institutional Adoption Drives the Integration’s Strategic Direction

Axelar Network’s 2026 roadmap, outlined by Common Prefix, centers on institutional adoption and compliant infrastructure.

Stellar’s focus on payments, regulated asset issuance, and compliance-oriented tools aligns well with that direction.

The roadmap specifically targets “strengthening economic security, enabling compliant and privacy-aware infrastructure, and building institutional products up the stack.”

Squid Router already supports bridging assets including XLM and solvBTC on the integrated network. Its role as a liquidity routing layer allows Stellar-based assets to access broader markets without fragmenting developer workflows. This gives builders immediate cross-chain reach from the Stellar ecosystem.

Financial institutions across global markets continue to explore onchain infrastructure for settlement and trading. Axelar and Stellar co-authored a joint article on onchain retail payments published in The Stablecoin Standard.

That collaboration reflects a shared focus on production-ready infrastructure built for institutional participants.

Axelar Network’s integration with Stellar is fully available to builders today. The announcement confirmed that “applications can begin connecting onchain assets and services across both networks today.”

The integration positions both ecosystems to support the continued growth of regulated, cross-chain digital asset products.

German central bank president Joachim Nagel said he sees “merit in euro-denominated stablecoins,” and argues that they could serve as a cheaper and more efficient means for cross-border payments by both firms and individuals.

During his speech at the New Year’s Reception of the American Chamber of Commerce in Germany in Frankfurt, Nagel, who leads the Deutsche Bundesbank, added that the EU is “working hard on the introduction of the digital euro.”

“This will be the first pan-European retail digital payment solution, based solely on European infrastructures,” he added.

However, he did not elaborate on how euro-denominated stablecoins would be regulated within the European Union’s existing legal framework, nor clarify how they would interact with the planned digital euro or broader monetary policy architecture.

In separate comments made last week, Nagel cautioned that if US dollar-denominated stablecoins were to gain significantly larger market share than a euro-pegged alternative, European monetary policy “could be severely impaired,” and the continent’s sovereignty could be weakened.

Nagel, who has long maintained a cautious and skeptical stance toward unbacked cryptocurrencies, has instead advocated the use of a state-backed digital euro, which he believes “will play a role in future resilience” for Europe.

According to him, the central bank has already “accomplished important exploratory work on the possible introduction of a wholesale CBDC.” A wholesale CBDC, he said, would allow financial institutions to make “programmable payments” in central bank money.

Elsewhere in the U.S., there has been a lot of momentum around stablecoin, and the market has been expanding at a rapid pace on the back of demand for dollar-equivalent settlement layers, especially after President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law in July 2025.

But policy deadlock around a key market structure bill has stalled progress and divided crypto industry and banking stakeholders over issues such as stablecoin yield and reward mechanisms.

The European Union is preparing a sweeping ban on cryptocurrency transactions involving Russian entities, even as Russian financial firms accelerate efforts to institutionalize crypto investment products at home.

EU targets Russian crypto with sweeping ban

According to a recent Financial Times report, the European Commission is proposing a blanket prohibition on crypto dealings between EU individuals or companies and any crypto-asset service provider established in Russia. The measure forms part of the bloc’s 20th sanctions package against Moscow since the invasion of Ukraine.

Unlike previous rounds that targeted specific exchanges or wallets, the new proposal would ban all Russian-linked crypto transactions, aiming to close loopholes that allowed sanctioned entities to rebrand or shift operations.

EU officials argue that cryptocurrencies, stablecoins and digital payment rails have created alternative channels for cross-border value transfers outside traditional banking oversight.

The draft reportedly includes restrictions tied to Russian digital finance infrastructure such as ruble-linked stablecoins and any future central bank digital currency.

However, the plan requires unanimous approval from all 27 EU member states, a hurdle that could complicate adoption and enforcement.

Russia deepens crypto investment push

At the same time, Russia’s domestic crypto sector is expanding.

Broker Finam has launched trading in units of a new investment fund focused on cryptocurrency mining operations. The fund pools capital to finance industrial-scale mining infrastructure, including facilities powered by natural gas in regions such as Mordovia.

It has been registered with the Bank of Russia, signaling increasing formalization of the sector.

The move reflects Russia’s broader strategy to regulate and legitimize crypto mining after legal reforms in recent years. With abundant energy resources and cold climates suitable for mining operations, Russia has positioned itself as a significant global mining hub.

Structured investment vehicles like Finam’s fund provide domestic investors exposure to digital asset production without directly holding cryptocurrencies.

For Brussels, digital assets represent a potential sanctions-evasion channel requiring tighter restrictions. For Moscow, crypto mining and regulated investment products are becoming tools of economic resilience and financial innovation under Western pressure.

TLDR:

• Buterin confirms users need no alignment with his views on AI, DeFi, or culture to use Ethereum. 
• He argues calling an app “corposlop” is free speech, not censorship, under Ethereum’s open framework. 
• Buterin warns that pretend neutrality weakens values, urging crypto builders to state principles clearly. 
• He compares Ethereum to Linux, saying a full-stack value-aligned ecosystem must exist alongside the protocol.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has issued a wide-ranging statement on personal views, free speech, and decentralized protocols.

He made clear that users do not need to share his opinions to participate in the Ethereum network. At the same time, he firmly asserted his right to openly criticize applications he disagrees with.

His remarks draw a firm line between protocol neutrality and individual expression within the broader ecosystem.

Ethereum Belongs to No Single Voice

Buterin opened his statement by listing several areas where he holds strong personal views. He wrote, “You do not have to agree with me on political topics to use Ethereum,” adding the same applies to his views on DeFi, AI, and even cultural preferences.

He noted that agreement on none of these topics is required to use Ethereum. This reflects the core promise of a permissionless system.

He was direct in stating that Ethereum is a decentralized protocol. As such, no single person — including himself — speaks for the entire ecosystem.

He noted that “the whole concept of permissionlessness and censorship resistance is that you are free to use Ethereum in whatever way you want.” Users are free to build and transact without seeking approval from any central figure.

However, Buterin acknowledged that his individual voice still carries weight in public discourse. He separated his personal commentary from any form of network-level control.

The distinction, he argued, is essential to understanding what decentralization actually means in practice.

Free Speech Carries Responsibility in Crypto

Buterin addressed the tension between criticism and censorship directly in his post. He stated clearly, “If I say that your application is corposlop, I am not censoring you.”

The network remains open regardless of what he says about any project. This, he argued, is the grand bargain of free speech.

Furthermore, he pushed back against what he described as false neutrality. He wrote that “the modern world does not call out for pretend neutrality, where a person puts on a suit and claims to be equally open to all perspectives.”

Instead, he called for the courage to state principles clearly and to point to negative examples when needed. Criticism, in his view, is a civic responsibility, not an attack.

He also noted that principles cannot remain at the protocol layer alone. He argued that “valuing something like freedom, and then acting as though it has consequences on technology choices, but is completely separate from everything else about our lives, is not pragmatic — it is hollow.” Staying silent on broader social questions, he said, weakens the values themselves.

The Linux Parallel and Full-Stack Value Systems

To illustrate his point, Buterin drew a direct comparison to Linux. He noted that “Linux is a technology of user empowerment and freedom,” yet it also serves as “the base layer of a lot of the world’s corposlop.” The same base layer can serve very different ends. Ethereum, he said, operates the same way.

Because of this, he argued that building the protocol is not enough. He wrote that “if you care about Linux because you care about user empowerment and freedom, it is not enough to just build the kernel.”

A full-stack ecosystem aligned with specific values must also exist alongside it. That ecosystem will not be the only way people use Ethereum, but it must remain available.

He closed by noting that the borders of any shared value framework are naturally fuzzy. He acknowledged that “it is possible, and indeed it is the normal case, to align with any one on some axes and not on other axes.” Ethereum, like Linux, will always serve many communities and value systems at once.

Crypto market sentiment has fallen to extreme lows and could lead to a “durable bottom” that exhausts selling pressure, according to analysts at crypto financial services firm Matrixport. 

“Sentiment has fallen to extremely depressed levels, reflecting broad pessimism across the market,” said Matrixport in a note on Tuesday. 

Matrixport’s own Bitcoin (BTC) “fear and greed index” suggests that “durable bottoms” form when the 21-day moving average drops below zero and reverses higher, which is currently the case.

“This transition signals that selling pressure is becoming exhausted and that market conditions are beginning to stabilize.” 

However, Matrixport cautioned that prices could still fall further in the near term. Historically, these deeply negative sentiment readings have offered attractive entry points, they said. 

“Given the cyclical relationship between sentiment and Bitcoin price action, the latest reading suggests the market may be approaching another inflection point,” it stated.

Crypto market sentiment at four-year lows

Previous periods when the Matrixport sentiment metric was this low were around June 2024 and November 2025, following periods of steep market declines. 

Alternative.me’s “Fear and Greed Index” is also around its lowest level since June 2022, with a reading of 10 out of 100 indicating “extreme fear.” 

Related: Bitcoin down 22%, could it be the worst Q1 since 2018?

If Bitcoin closes February in the red, it will print five straight monthly losses in the longest streak since 2018, and one of the steepest sustained sell-offs in history.  

Bitcoin is at historic oversold levels 

Frank Holmes, chairman of Bitcoin mining firm Hive, said on Monday that Bitcoin is now roughly two standard deviations below its 20-day trading norm. “This is a level we’ve seen only three times in the past five years,” he said. 

“Historically, such extremes have favored short-term bounces over the subsequent 20 trading days,” he explained.  

“Despite the ongoing market jitters, I remain bullish in the long term because the fundamentals still look strong.”

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