TLDR:

• Nearly $26 billion in short liquidation leverage sits above Bitcoin’s current $62,000 price level.
• Shorts lost $218 million in 24 hours, more than double long liquidations across the crypto market.
• A single $82 million short position on OKX was wiped out amid Bitcoin’s 24-hour liquidation wave.
• Cycle Bands flashed an oversold signal for the first time since 2023, hinting at a possible base.

Bitcoin traders are staring down a potential short squeeze as lopsided leverage positions build across major exchanges.

Coinglass data shows nearly $26 billion in short liquidation leverage sitting above Bitcoin’s $62,000 price level. Meanwhile, long liquidation exposure below that level remains well under $2 billion.

This stark imbalance is drawing attention from analysts and active traders watching the market closely.

Lopsided Leverage Builds Across Major Exchanges

The concentration of short positions is spread primarily across three platforms. Binance, OKX, and Bybit hold the bulk of this leveraged exposure on the short side.

Over the past 24 hours, total crypto liquidations reached $332 million across the broader market. Shorts accounted for $218 million of that figure, more than double the losses on the long side.

Bitcoin alone drove $124 million in liquidations during that same window. A single short position on OKX was wiped out for $82 million, standing out as the largest closure.

Open interest across the market climbed 3% to $103 billion despite trading volume pulling back. That combination of rising open interest and falling volume points to a buildup of speculative positioning rather than active price discovery.

Traders are now divided on what comes next for Bitcoin. One camp sees the lopsided short exposure as fuel for a sharp upside move.

The other argues that a break below $60,000 support could trigger a bearish reversal instead. Both scenarios carry real risk given the current leverage environment.

The $60,000 level has become the key line in the sand for market participants. A sustained move below it could unwind the short squeeze thesis quickly and accelerate selling pressure.

Market Data Points Toward Possible Base Formation

Technical analysts are watching Bitcoin’s behavior around the $60,200 yearly low. Crypto analyst account Alpha Extract noted on X that Bitcoin failed to close below that level on the four-hour timeframe. The account described this as a constructive development, even while maintaining a cautious near-term outlook.

Alpha Extract added that lower prices may still come before any meaningful recovery takes hold. However, the analyst noted that each move lower builds a better risk-reward setup for an asymmetric upside trade.

That framing reflects a measured view common among experienced traders navigating prolonged downtrends.

Adding to the discussion, Alpha Extract pointed out that Cycle Bands flashed an oversold signal for the first time since 2023.

That type of reading has historically appeared near market turning points, though it does not guarantee an immediate reversal. Traders are treating it as one more data point in an evolving picture.

The broader market is watching whether Bitcoin can hold current levels and build a credible base. Until that case strengthens, short squeeze risk and downside pressure will continue to define the trading environment.

TLDR:

• Stellar (XLM) is attracting institutional interest through fast, low-cost cross-border payment infrastructure.
• Growing stablecoin activity and real-world asset tokenization are strengthening Stellar’s on-chain economic case.
• Potential CBDC integrations and institutional partnerships could serve as major long-term catalysts for XLM.
• Continuous network upgrades and scalability improvements position Stellar for sustained growth beyond short-term volatility.

Stellar (XLM) is showing signs that a long-term breakout may be forming as blockchain adoption moves toward real-world utility. The network has built a foundation around fast, low-cost cross-border payments and institutional integration.

With growing activity across stablecoins and tokenized assets, Stellar’s infrastructure is drawing closer attention from market observers and financial institutions alike.

Institutional Adoption Could Be the Catalyst Behind XLM’s Breakout

Stellar’s growing institutional presence is one of the strongest arguments for a potential long-term breakout. Financial institutions are increasingly evaluating networks that offer practical payment solutions at low cost. Stellar fits that profile more directly than most competing blockchain networks currently available.

Payment providers are also beginning to build on Stellar’s infrastructure at a measurable pace. As more real transactions flow through the network, its on-chain economic activity grows steadily.

That kind of organic growth tends to support sustained price movement over time rather than short-term speculation.

Crypto commentator SylvianGuibal on X captured this sentiment, noting that Stellar “continues to attract growing institutional interest while expanding its footprint across payments, stablecoins, and tokenized assets.”

If that trajectory holds, institutional adoption alone could serve as a meaningful breakout trigger for XLM going forward.

Real-World Asset Tokenization and Stablecoins Could Push XLM Higher

Tokenization of real-world assets is emerging as a strong driver for Stellar’s long-term growth outlook. Institutions exploring regulated digital finance are looking for networks that can handle asset issuance reliably. Stellar’s architecture is built to support exactly that kind of activity at scale.

Stablecoin usage on the network is also growing at a notable rate. Stablecoins need fast, affordable infrastructure to move value efficiently across borders. Stellar meets those technical requirements, positioning it well within a rapidly expanding stablecoin market.

Beyond that, potential central bank digital currency integrations could further strengthen XLM’s long-term case. Several central banks are actively researching CBDC frameworks, and Stellar has been part of those early discussions. A confirmed CBDC partnership would represent a considerable step toward a sustained breakout scenario.

Continuous Network Upgrades Keep XLM Positioned for Long-Term Growth

Stellar’s development team has maintained a steady schedule of technical upgrades aimed at improving scalability and interoperability.

These improvements ensure the network remains competitive as global financial infrastructure evolves. Consistent development is one of the clearer signs that the project is building for the long term.

The network’s ability to handle high transaction volumes without sacrificing speed or cost remains a core strength.

As adoption grows, this technical capacity reduces the risk of bottlenecks that have slowed other blockchain networks.

That reliability makes Stellar a more credible choice for institutions considering long-term infrastructure commitments.

As @SylvianGuibal stated, “the real question is whether Stellar can continue capturing meaningful economic activity on-chain.”

If adoption across payments, tokenized assets, and stablecoins keeps accelerating, XLM may already be laying the groundwork for the breakout that many in the market are watching for.

TLDR:

• The LTH-SOPR to STH-SOPR ratio has dropped sharply, showing long-term holders are no longer booking large profits.
• Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit has fallen to 47%, matching levels historically seen at the floor of past bear markets.
• Bitcoin is approaching the 200-week moving average and Realized Price, two key support zones from prior cycles.
• Capital rotation toward AI stocks and tech IPOs is driving Bitcoin’s demand shortage, not a structural failure.

Is the market structure starting to change for Bitcoin? That question is gaining traction among analysts and long-term investors.

Bitcoin has slid toward the $60,000 range despite ETF approvals, growing corporate adoption, and clearer regulatory frameworks.

Three on-chain indicators are now offering a data-driven answer to that question — and what they show points toward a bottoming phase rather than a structural breakdown.

What the Data Says About Bitcoin’s Current Market Position

The first indicator drawing attention is the LTH-SOPR to STH-SOPR ratio. This metric compares how long-term holders and short-term holders are realizing gains or losses.

The ratio has fallen sharply in recent weeks. Long-term holders are no longer booking the large profits seen during the previous bull run.

That change in behavior carries weight. When long-term holders stop selling into strength, one major source of sell-side pressure begins to ease.

Historically, this pattern has appeared during the later stages of market corrections. It does not confirm a bottom, but it does reflect a meaningful shift in holder sentiment.

Supply in Profit has also dropped to roughly 47%. That means more than half of all circulating Bitcoin is now held at a loss or near break-even.

In bull markets, this figure typically exceeds 90%. The current reading aligns closely with levels seen at the floor of previous bear cycles in 2018 and 2022.

Taken together, these two indicators suggest that speculative excess has largely been removed from the system. Investors who entered during peak euphoria have either sold or are sitting on unrealized losses. That kind of market cleanup has historically preceded recovery phases.

Why Bitcoin’s Price Decline May Not Signal a Structural Failure

Bitcoin is competing for capital against some of the most powerful investment narratives in global markets right now.

Artificial intelligence stocks and anticipated major technology IPOs are drawing liquidity away from crypto. That rotation is creating a demand shortage, not a collapse in Bitcoin’s fundamentals.

This distinction matters when reading the on-chain data. Bitcoin is approaching two historically important valuation benchmarks — the 200-week moving average and the Realized Price.

Both have acted as strong support zones during past downturns. Buyers who monitor these levels tend to treat them as favorable long-term entry points.

The convergence of these three signals — softening long-term holder profit-taking, a majority of supply in loss, and proximity to key valuation support — paints a consistent picture.

The market structure appears to be transitioning away from distribution and toward accumulation. Sentiment has moved from euphoria to measured caution.

Still, the bottoming phase is not yet confirmed. The next sustained move upward will depend on whether fresh capital returns to Bitcoin.

Until that rotation happens, the market remains in a critical testing zone — and on-chain data remains the clearest tool available for reading its direction.

TLDR:

• Ethereum’s 3-day chart has printed a TD Sequential “9” buy signal after a drop from $2,300 to $1,600.
• The TD Sequential signal indicates potential seller exhaustion but does not confirm a full trend reversal.
• CryptoQuant data shows ETH exchange reserves across all centralized platforms continue trending lower.
• Bulls must defend the $1,600 support zone for ETH to target a recovery toward the $1,800–$1,950 range.

Ethereum’s 3-day chart has printed a TD Sequential “9” buy signal amid a sustained price decline from above $2,300 to near $1,600.

The technical pattern, which tracks nine consecutive bearish candles, points to potential seller exhaustion at current levels.

Meanwhile, on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows exchange reserves across centralized platforms trending sharply lower. Together, the two datasets present a case for a short-term price recovery in ETH.

TD Sequential Flags Possible Trend Exhaustion Near $1,600

Ethereum has been under consistent selling pressure over recent weeks, forming a clear series of lower highs and lower lows.

The decline has been steep, with prices dropping roughly 30% from the $2,300 range to the $1,600 zone. That move reflects broad bearish sentiment across the crypto market during this period.

The TD Sequential indicator works by counting nine consecutive candles that each close lower than four candles prior. When the count reaches nine, the signal suggests the existing trend may be losing strength.

Crypto analyst Ali Charts flagged this development on X, noting a small bullish candle has appeared immediately after the signal printed.

According to Ali Charts, if bulls manage to hold the $1,600 support zone, ETH could recover toward the $1,800–$1,950 resistance range.

That area represents the next logical ceiling based on prior price action. A failure to hold support, however, would likely resume the broader downtrend.

The TD Sequential does not guarantee a reversal. Instead, it marks a point where trend momentum may be weakening.

Traders typically wait for confirmation from subsequent candles before entering positions based on the signal alone.

Exchange Reserve Decline Points to Reduced Selling Supply

On-chain researcher Rei Researcher highlighted a separate but complementary dataset. Based on CryptoQuant’s “Ethereum Exchange Reserve — All Exchanges” metric, ETH reserves across centralized exchanges continue declining after a brief upward recovery. That brief uptick saw some retail investors move coins onto exchanges to restructure their portfolios.

The renewed decline in exchange reserves indicates that available sell-side liquidity is shrinking on order books. When holders withdraw ETH to personal wallets rather than exchange accounts, it reduces the immediate supply available for sale. That dynamic tends to ease downward pressure on price over time.

The dominant outflow pattern seen in the data neutralizes a portion of potential sell pressure sitting on exchange order books.

Rei Researcher noted this as clear evidence that most current holders prefer storage over selling at present price levels. That shift in holder behavior matters because it changes the supply dynamics around the $1,600 support level.

Taken together, the TD Sequential signal and the exchange reserve trend suggest the $1,600 zone carries meaningful technical and on-chain support.

Whether ETH can sustain a recovery remains contingent on broader market conditions and buyer follow-through at current levels.

TLDR:

• Ripple Prime joins 50+ firms in DTCC’s tokenization working group, including BlackRock and JPMorgan.
  
• DTCC plans limited live production trades in July 2026, with a full service rollout set for October 2026.
  
• The SEC issued a No-Action Letter in December 2025, authorizing DTC’s tokenization service for three years.
  
• Ripple Prime gains access to DTCC clearing rails, helping link tokenized securities with XRP Ledger liquidity.
  

Ripple Prime has joined the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation’s (DTCC) tokenization initiative alongside BlackRock, JPMorgan, and more than 50 other institutions.

The service targets tokenized equities, ETFs, and U.S. Treasuries, with limited production trades set for July 2026 and a full rollout planned for October 2026.

The move places Ripple Prime at the center of one of the most closely watched developments in institutional finance this year.

Ripple Prime Steps Into a Historic Institutional Push

More than 50 organizations are collaborating within DTCC’s Industry Working Group to help shape the service, representing a broad cross-section of the financial sector.

Major participants include JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citadel Securities, Invesco, HSBC, Charles Schwab, BlackRock, Nasdaq, NYSE, Robinhood, and Wells Fargo.

Ripple Prime is the prime brokerage born from the $1.25 billion Hidden Road acquisition. Its presence in the working group puts it directly alongside institutions that collectively manage trillions in assets. That positioning carries weight well beyond the digital asset sector.

From the digital assets sector, Ripple Prime joins USDC issuer Circle, digital asset infrastructure firm Fireblocks, tokenization leader Ondo Finance, and exchanges Kraken and Backpack.

Together, these firms represent the crypto-native layer of what is otherwise a largely traditional financial initiative.

Social media reactions followed quickly after the announcement. Account @InvestWithD noted that Ripple Prime is helping test, validate, and shape institutional infrastructure alongside Wall Street’s biggest players.

The post also clarified that Stellar is separately positioned as the public blockchain for DTCC’s multi-chain strategy — a point that had caused confusion among many observers.

What the DTCC Initiative Means for Ripple Prime

DTCC is working to connect traditional clearing and settlement rails with blockchain-based representations of real-world assets.

Rather than building separate systems, the goal is to embed tokenization directly within existing post-trade infrastructure.

The target assets are those already held inside its subsidiary, The Depository Trust Company — Russell 1000 equities, major ETFs, and U.S. Treasuries.

The SEC issued a No-Action Letter in December 2025 authorizing DTC to operate a defined tokenization service for three years.

That ruling provided the regulatory foundation institutions needed to participate openly. It also signaled broader federal comfort with tokenized securities operating within established financial systems.

Ripple Prime’s participation grants it access to DTCC clearing rails as a prime broker, a direct view into how tokenized securities will be issued and settled, and the ability to design products linking DTCC-based assets with XRP Ledger-based collateral and liquidity. Those capabilities stand to strengthen Ripple Prime’s offering across institutional markets.

For Ripple Prime, securing a seat alongside JPMorgan, BlackRock, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs elevates its credibility massively across institutional markets.

Whether XRP plays a direct settlement role remains an open question, but Ripple’s formal place in this process is now confirmed.

Strategy, the billion-dollar holder of Bitcoin in the corporate treasury space, is once again sparking investor intrigue as a pivotal proxy vote on its STRC dividend schedule nears. Executive chairman Michael Saylor used social media to hint at forthcoming news regarding the company’s BTC holdings, posting a chart that tracks Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases over nearly six years. The message, paired with a broader push from the firm’s leadership, arrives just days before shareholders vote on whether STRC dividends should switch from a monthly cadence to a semi-monthly one.

Market context matters here. Strategy is reported to own 843,706 BTC, with an average cost basis of about $75,701 per coin. Bitcoin itself traded around $62,150 during the reporting window, having declined roughly 16.6% over the past week. The numbers underscore a contrast between a large, patient holder and the near-term price volatility that can accompany major treasury moves.

Last week, Strategy paused new Bitcoin accumulation after repurchasing some corporate debt, a move that briefly unsettled traders who feared potential liquidity needs could force BTC sales. The interplay between debt management, treasury buybacks, and the proposed dividend change forms the core of the current investor dialogue.

Key takeaways

• Michael Saylor signaled potential news on Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings through a social post and a tracking chart, suggesting upcoming disclosure or activity ahead of the STRC dividend vote.
• Strategy reportedly holds 843,706 BTC with an average purchase price near $75,701 per Bitcoin, while BTC traded near $62,150 amid a weekly price drop of about 16.6% (CoinMarketCap data).
• The STRC dividend proposal would shift from monthly to semi-monthly payments, aiming to reduce reinvestment lag, improve liquidity, and enhance market efficiency, pending approval by 50% of outstanding shares as of a set date.
• A recent debt repurchase pause raised concerns about funding flexibility and potential BTC selling, highlighting the delicate balance Strategy must maintain between liquidity needs and its Bitcoin accumulation strategy.
• Retail proxy-voting participation remains modest relative to institutions, a dynamic that could influence the outcome of the STRC vote regardless of the underlying fundamentals.

Hints of renewed BTC activity as the vote approaches

In a highly anticipated sequence of moves, Saylor’s X post—“A good time to add more dots”—was accompanied by a link to a chart tracking Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases since the firm began accumulating BTC. The chart, maintained by StrategyTracker.com (an Iceland-registered tracker used by the investor community), has become a recurring preface to any news about new BTC activity from Strategy. The cadence and visibility of these posts have underlined Saylor’s appetite for transparency around Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury, even as the voting process unfolds.

Phonemically echoing the same theme, Strategy’s CEO Phong Le amplified the message, stating that the company’s corporate strategy is to increase net Bitcoin and Bitcoin per share over time. “Rumors otherwise are just rumors,” he said in a follow-up post, reinforcing the leadership’s stance that the treasury strategy remains intentional and forward-looking.

For investors, the implications hinge on whether Strategy uses any new purchases to support an expanding BTC stack or to reinforce the existing position’s cost basis amid a volatile price backdrop. The average cost of 75,701 per BTC provides a rough guide for evaluating near-term purchases against current price levels, though market dynamics and funding considerations will ultimately shape execution if and when purchases are announced.

BTC’s price context matters too. The firm’s holdings sit against a broader market where Bitcoin traded around $62,000, after a pronounced weekly drop. Such price action can influence decisions on timing and size of any new acquisitions, particularly for a publicly traded vehicle with a stated objective of growing BTC exposure per share.

Readers may recall that last week’s debt repurchase move temporarily paused additional Bitcoin accumulation. In the immediate aftermath, traders weighed the possibility that the company could be compelled to liquidate some BTC to finance buybacks. While there is no public indication that such a sale is imminent, the episode underscores the tension between liquidity management and ongoing accumulation goals.

STRC dividend cadence: what the proxy asks for and why it matters

The current ballot asks Strategy’s shareholders to approve a change in the way STRC dividends are paid—from a traditional monthly cadence to semi-monthly installments. Management argues that semi-monthly payments could reduce reinvestment lag, improve market liquidity, increase price stability, and narrow spreads by offering more frequent entry and exit points for investors. In a keynote tied to the Synergy26 conference for registered investment advisers, Saylor described the potential impact as a reduction in volatility and an improvement to the Sharpe ratio, noting that while thousands of companies pay quarterly dividends and a subset pays monthly, Strategy would be among the few to pay twice monthly if approved.

The mechanics of passage are clear: the amendment requires the support of 50% of all STRC shares outstanding as of April 17, 2026, which totals 85 million shares. The final decision is expected to land at Monday’s shareholder meeting, pending any last-minute developments. In practice, the voting dynamic could hinge on how many retail holders participate. A Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance acknowledgment of voting patterns shows retail investors historically casting around 29% of their shares, compared with 77% by institutional holders, a gap that could influence outcomes that depend as much on participation as on price signals.

In parallel coverage, market observers have also noted Strategy’s leverage-facing dynamics in its broader Bitcoin model, with discussions of stress tests and the resilience of a treasury-driven approach in the face of volatility. While such analyses provide important context, the STRC vote remains the decisive lever for governance-related changes to the company’s dividend policy and liquidity management framework.

For reference, the STRC-vote story sits within a larger ecosystem of corporate treasury strategies and how, in practice, large BTC holders navigate liquidity, leverage, and governance risk. Related coverage on Strategy’s leveraged Bitcoin approach has highlighted the stress-testing dimensions that accompany a treasury-led model, underscoring that even well-capitalized programs must adapt to market conditions and shareholder expectations.

What comes next and what to watch

The next days will clarify whether Strategy moves forward with new BTC activity and how the STRC dividend change is received by the market. Investors should watch for any formal disclosures of additional Bitcoin purchases, as indicated by Saylor’s public signals and the StrategyTracker channel, alongside updates from Strategy’s proxy solicitations and voting results as the Monday meeting concludes.

In the broader context, the vote reinforces ongoing debates about how corporate treasuries should balance growth objectives with liquidity and governance norms. As Strategy contends with market volatility and a changing dividend landscape, readers should monitor how the outcome could affect correlations between Bitcoin holdings and shareholder value, especially for investors tracking how treasury policy translates into market behavior and risk-adjusted returns.

Next steps will hinge on the voting outcome, potential new BTC activity, and how the market perceives the balance between Strategy’s treasury strategy and the evolving needs of its investors. If the semi-monthly dividend shift passes, expect increased attention on how the company times reinvestments and how liquidity management shapes future BTC accumulation decisions.

TLDR:

• Solana recorded $716M in real-world asset net inflows in May, the highest figure across all blockchains.
• Mastercard launched always-on USDC stablecoin settlement on Solana, linking traditional finance to the network.
• Backpack Securities introduced a U.S.-regulated brokerage merging traditional stocks with Solana-native tokenization.
• Solana captured roughly 60% of total onchain collectibles volume while Solana Mobile crossed 1,000 dApp Store apps.

The Solana ecosystem recorded a wave of institutional and developer activity in May, even as SOL traded near $65. Mastercard launched always-on USDC settlement on the network.

Backpack introduced a regulated brokerage for tokenized stocks. Real-world asset inflows hit $716 million — the highest across all chains.

Meanwhile, builders shipped payments tools, DeFi protocols, cross-chain bridges, and onchain games at a steady pace.

Institutions Drive Real-World Asset Growth on Solana

The Solana ecosystem attracted $716 million in real-world asset net capital inflows during May. That figure surpassed every competing blockchain, marking a clear institutional preference for the network. The milestone reflects growing confidence in Solana’s speed, cost efficiency, and settlement reliability.

Mastercard’s move added further weight to that trend. The payments giant introduced always-on stablecoin settlement directly on Solana, using USDC. That integration connects traditional financial infrastructure to a public blockchain in a live, operational capacity.

Backpack followed by announcing Backpack Securities, a U.S.-regulated brokerage built on Solana. The platform merges standard brokerage functions with native onchain tokenization.

Raydium separately crossed $2 billion in cumulative trading volume for tokenized equities, showing that demand for onchain real-world assets is already active and growing.

Builders Launch Payments, DeFi, and Cross-Chain Tools

Beyond institutions, the Solana ecosystem saw a broad wave of new product launches throughout May. MoonPay released the MoonAgents Desktop App, which connects ChatGPT or Claude so AI agents can execute onchain payments. Axelar went live on Solana to support cross-chain messaging and programmable asset transfers.

The Solana Foundation also announced native Subscriptions and Allowances, enabling delegated spending and recurring billing on the network.

PAJ Cash debuted v2 of its payment platform, which allows account-based Web3 off-ramps. Lava Card launched a zero-annual-fee Visa debit card tied to Solana, further connecting onchain assets to everyday spending.

On the DeFi side, Kamino’s xStocks market surpassed $30 million in total market size. Zodial shipped a portfolio-margin lending protocol.

Sunrise DeFi, Meteora, and Bedrock Foundation teamed up to launch Dynamic Assets. The Solana Foundation also opened dedicated support for teams building onchain perpetuals infrastructure.

Collectibles, Gaming, and Community Milestones Add Momentum

The Solana ecosystem also led onchain collectibles markets during May, capturing roughly 60% of total volume across all chains.

Moonshot released Moonshot Packs, bringing a physical trading card experience to the blockchain. Jailed, an onchain prison simulator game, also launched on Solana during the period.

Solana Mobile crossed 1,000 live apps on its dApp Store, a community milestone that reflects steady developer growth.

Helium Mobile, the consumer carrier running on Solana’s network, was acquired by Andrew Yang’s Noble Mobile. That acquisition extends the network’s reach into consumer telecom.

KAST won Best Digital Assets Fintech at the BeInCrypto Institutional 100 Awards. MonkeyFoundry opened Cohort 2 applications, closing June 12.

BitRobot Network announced applications for its robotics laboratory program. Together, these developments show that builder and community activity within the Solana ecosystem remained active regardless of short-term price movement.

Bitcoin (BTC) traders said that BTC holding above the $60,000 psychological support over the weekend was important as it recovered 6.5% from a local low near $59,100 to an intraday high of around $62,950 on Sunday.

Key takeaways:

• BTC is eyeing a rally toward $92,630 if it continues to hold above a key moving-average support.
• Nasdaq technicals hint at a potential decline of over 10% in the short term.

BTC may rise above $90,000 if Nasdaq underperforms

Bitcoin’s rebound stood out as the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) plunged more than 4% on Friday, its steepest one-day drop since April 2025. This has raised hopes that risk capital may return to BTC markets.

BTC/USD vs. IXIC daily performance chart. Source: TradingView

Technical commentary shared by veteran analyst Filbfilb offered some hope for the Bitcoin bulls.

In a Sunday post, the analyst highlighted Bitcoin holding strong above its 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA, the blue line) at around $61,880. This level has helped form the bottom in 2020, 2018, and 2015.

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

In other words, traders may view the dip below $60,000 as a shakeout if BTC holds the 200-week SMA, with the 50-week SMA (red) near $92,630 becoming the next major upside target.

At the same time, the Nasdaq appears to be correcting toward its 20-week SMA, the green line near 22,905 points, after its weekly relative strength index (RSI) fell to 62.46 from around 74.75.

Every major Nasdaq weekly RSI drop from above 70 (overbought) to below 70 since 2021 has led the index back toward its 20-week moving average.

IXIC weekly chart. Source: TradingView

The Nasdaq could fall toward 22,905 if the fractal repeats, implying a further decline of about 10.75% from current levels in June or by July.

That said, Bitcoin could be setting up for a sharp mean-reversion rebound if it holds its long-term floor while the Nasdaq continues to cool off.

Bitcoin-Nasdaq ratio supports BTC rebound scenario

Bitcoin’s ratio against the Nasdaq has again reached a record oversold zone, according to its daily RSI readings.

Related: Bitcoin most oversold since 2020 crash: Can BTC rebound to $70K next?

On Saturday, the RSI dropped to 14.70, the lowest in history. The previous record was 14.88, set in February, ahead of a 30%-plus recovery in BTC prices.

BTC/IXIC vs. BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

In simple terms, Bitcoin had become too cheap relative to the Nasdaq, and buyers stepped in. The same setup is appearing again, reiterating a potential rebound in BTC prices in the coming weeks.