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XRP Price On Track To Repeat July 2024 Recovery Rally

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XRP MVRV Ratio Extreme Values

XRP has remained under pressure amid a broader crypto market pullback. The token continues to trade below a persistent downtrend line that began at the start of the year. Multiple breakout attempts have failed, reinforcing bearish control in the short term.

Despite the ongoing decline, historical patterns suggest this phase may precede a recovery rally. Similar technical setups have marked turning points in the past. Notably, July 2024.

XRP Could See Its History Repeated

The Market Value to Realized Value, or MVRV, Extreme Values indicator shows XRP has traded below the 1.0 threshold for an extended period. An MVRV ratio under 1.0 often signals that the asset is undervalued relative to its historical cost basis. This condition can reflect capitulation among short-term holders.

Green bars within the MVRV model indicate XRP is “getting low,” suggesting a potential bottom formation. Historically, such readings have occurred after MVRV remained below 1.0 for roughly 15% of trading days. These periods have often aligned with reversal stages rather than prolonged declines.

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XRP MVRV Ratio Extreme Values
XRP MVRV Ratio Extreme Values. Source: Glassnode

A similar setup emerged in July 2024. Shortly after comparable MVRV readings, XRP surged 51% within days. While past performance does not guarantee future results, the data suggests XRP may be nearing a recovery phase if historical tendencies repeat.

On-chain metrics offer additional insight into shifting investor behavior. The number of addresses holding at least 10,000 XRP has begun to stabilize after a notable decline. This cohort represents mid-sized holders rather than large whales.

The recent uptick follows the largest drop in such addresses since December 2020. Historically, renewed participation from these holders comes after accumulation by larger XRP investors. Rising conviction among smaller participants often reflects a cascading improvement in confidence in price stability and potential upside from top holders.

XRP Holders
XRP Holders. Source: Glassnode

XRP Price Aims At Ending Downtrend 

XRP is trading at $1.42 at the time of writing, holding above the critical $1.36 support level. Maintaining this base is essential for preserving near-term bullish prospects. However, the asset remains capped beneath a descending trendline that has rejected price advances three times this year.

While improving MVRV readings and addressing growth support a constructive outlook, confirmation remains pending. A decisive move above $1.57 would be required to validate a breakout. Flipping this level into support would clear the $1.50 resistance and break the established downtrend structure. Such a shift could open a path toward $1.91, marking a significant recovery extension.

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XRP Price Analysis
XRP Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

If bullish momentum weakens, XRP may continue consolidating within its current range. A breakdown below $1.36 would shift the structure bearish. In that scenario, downside risk could extend toward $1.11, invalidating the recovery thesis and reinforcing selling pressure in the broader XRP price trend.

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Crypto World

BlackRock says only Bitcoin and Ethereum attract investors

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Microsoft stock plunges 11% as Bitcoin traders seek refuge amid broader tech selloff

BlackRock digital assets head Robert Mitchnick said Bitcoin and Ethereum remain the only two cryptocurrencies attracting meaningful investor demand.

Summary

  • BlackRock says Bitcoin and Ethereum dominate investor demand.
  • IBIT saw $26B inflows in 2025 despite Bitcoin’s price decline.
  • ETH staking ETF aims to add yield to ether exposure.

This comes as the asset manager evaluates future ETF products. Speaking on CNBC following the launch of BlackRock’s ETHB staked ether ETF, Mitchnick stated Bitcoin commands approximately 60% of crypto market share while Ethereum holds the low teens.

The comments come as BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF recorded $26 billion in inflows during 2025 despite Bitcoin falling nearly 50% from its October all-time high.

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IBIT ranked fourth globally for ETF inflows last year, becoming the only product in the top 20 to post positive flows while delivering negative price returns.

Year-to-date flows for IBIT remain slightly positive, with approximately 90% of the investor base maintaining steady accumulation patterns through the drawdown.

Bitcoin and Ethereum dominate investor allocation decisions

Mitchnick described Bitcoin as a “digital gold emerging monetary alternative” while calling Ethereum as “a technology centric bet around blockchain innovation and the various use cases of ether and digital assets.”

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The distinction decides how investors approach portfolio allocations, with Ethereum exposure aligning more closely with technology and venture equity allocations.

BlackRock’s ETHA became the third-fastest ETF in history to reach $10 billion in assets under management, trailing only IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC.

The newly launched ETHB adds staking yield to spot ether exposure, addressing what Mitchnick called a “limitation” in original ether ETF products that lacked yield capture mechanisms.

The staking feature makes ETHB “much closer, like the Bitcoin ETPs were, to a silver bullet for a lot of investors in terms of a super convenient exposure vehicle,” Mitchnick said.

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Long-term investors drive Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF flows

Retail investors and financial advisors comprise the majority of ETF demand, with both segments showing opportunistic buying during price declines.

Hedge funds account for roughly 10% of flows, primarily running basis trades that go long ETFs while shorting futures contracts. These trades remain neutral for Bitcoin’s price but create flow volatility when basis spreads compress.

Mitchnick noted BlackRock sees “pockets of interest” in other crypto assets but maintains a “discerning approach” to product expansion.

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The firm continues evaluating assets as liquidity, scale, and use cases develop, but Bitcoin and Ethereum remain where investor interest concentrates overwhelmingly.

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USDC Market Cap Nears $80B as UAE Capital Flight Drives Demand

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USDC Market Cap Nears $80B as UAE Capital Flight Drives Demand

The market capitalization of the USDC stablecoin is approaching a record high near $80 billion as demand surges in the Middle East, with one analyst linking the spike to capital flight from the United Arab Emirates.

According to data from CoinMarketCap, USDC (USDC)’s circulating supply has risen to roughly $79.2 billion, marking a new all-time high for the dollar-pegged stablecoin. The stablecoin’s market cap previously hit a high of below $79 billion in December last year.

The increase comes after supply expanded by billions of dollars in recent weeks. The stablecoin’s market cap stood at just over $70 billion in early February and at $75 billion earlier this month.

USDC market cap. Source: CoinMarketCap

Self-proclaimed Dubai-based analyst Rami Al-Hashimi claimed the surge reflects growing demand from investors seeking to move funds out of traditional markets. In a Friday post on X, Al-Hashimi said over-the-counter (OTC) desks in Dubai have struggled to meet demand for the stablecoin.

Related: Stablecoins could form backbone of global payments in 10 years: Billionaire

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Dubai property slump may be driving USDC surge

Al-Hashimi tied the surge in stablecoin demand to turmoil in the UAE’s real estate market. The analyst claimed property prices in Dubai have fallen roughly 27% this month, sparking a rush among investors to move capital into digital assets.

“War panic. Capital flight. Sellers are bleeding,” he wrote, describing what he said was a rapid shift in investor behavior.

Data from TradingView also shows that the DFM Real Estate Index, which tracks the performance of listed real estate and construction companies in Dubai, has suffered a sharp sell-off, with the index falling from around 16,800 at its recent peak to about 11,516, a decline of roughly 31%.

Al-Hashimi claimed the situation has also led some property sellers to accept cryptocurrency payments directly. He said certain real estate listings now advertise discounts for buyers who pay using Bitcoin (BTC).

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“Pay in BTC, get 5–10% off,” he wrote, adding that the trend reflects growing demand for digital assets during periods of financial uncertainty.

Related: Crypto Biz: Circle stock defies Wall Street and digital asset selloff

USDC overtakes USDt in adjusted transaction volume

Japanese investment bank Mizuho says USDC has surpassed Tether’s USDt (USDT) in adjusted transaction volume for the first time since 2019. According to the bank’s research note, USDC recorded about $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume year-to-date, compared with $1.3 trillion for USDt, giving USDC roughly 64% of combined transaction share.