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XRP Reclaims Fourth in Crypto Rankings After Flipping BNB: Is Ethereum Within Reach?

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

    • XRP reclaimed fourth place in global crypto rankings with a market cap of around $91 billion.
    • The SEC and CFTC jointly classified XRP as a digital commodity on March 17, boosting trading volume 250%.
    • Only 16% of XRP ETF assets come from institutions, leaving significant room for larger capital inflows.
    • XRP would need to reach roughly $4.79 per token to match Ethereum’s current $295 billion market cap.

XRP price has reclaimed fourth place in global crypto rankings, overtaking BNB with a market cap near $91 billion. The two assets have swapped positions multiple times since March 2026.

XRP trades around $1.50 as of writing, following a 10% rally. Ethereum holds a much larger market cap of roughly $295 billion. Three key developments, however, could close that gap considerably in the months ahead.

The Structural Shift Behind XRP’s Rise Over BNB

For much of the past three years, XRP and BNB have exchanged the fourth-place ranking repeatedly. XRP grabbed it in early 2025, lost it, then reclaimed it in July at a cycle high of $3.65. The token slid back as the broader market corrected through late 2025 and into early 2026.

The March 2026 flip carried more weight than previous ones. On March 17, the SEC and CFTC jointly classified XRP as a digital commodity. Banks and asset managers that had previously avoided XRP over securities concerns could now hold and trade it freely.

XRP spiked to $1.60 that day, with trading volume surging roughly 250%. The rally faded after the Fed held rates and raised its inflation forecast. BNB briefly reclaimed fourth on March 23 before XRP pulled ahead once again.

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Three Catalysts That Could Drive XRP Higher

The CLARITY Act remains the most closely watched catalyst for XRP price. It cleared the House in July 2025 and is targeting a Senate Banking Committee markup in late April. Unlike March’s regulatory guidance, the CLARITY Act would permanently cement XRP’s commodity classification.

XRP ETFs represent another growing driver in the market. Currently, six XRP ETFs operate in the U.S., with retail investors holding about 84% of assets. Institutions account for only 16%, leaving substantial room for larger inflows as legal certainty grows.

Real-world adoption through Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity service adds consistent organic buying pressure. ODL uses XRP to settle cross-border payments in seconds without pre-funded destination accounts.

Expanding ODL corridors throughout 2025 and 2026 have steadily built a foundation of transaction-driven demand.

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What XRP Realistically Needs to Reach Ethereum’s Level

XRP at $1.50 carries a market cap of about $91 billion, compared to Ethereum’s $295 billion. Matching Ethereum’s current valuation would require XRP to reach approximately $4.79 per token. That translates to a 219% move from where it trades today.

A more achievable target for 2026 is a range between $3.00 and $4.00. That range would roughly double XRP’s market cap, placing it about halfway toward Ethereum’s current standing. Getting there still requires the CLARITY Act to pass and macro conditions to stabilize.

Flipping Ethereum this year would need nearly every catalyst aligning at once. A legislative win, a macro recovery, and accelerating ETF inflows would all have to converge simultaneously. That combination is not impossible, but remains a considerable stretch within a single calendar year.

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Crypto World

Charles Schwab, Citadel Both Mull Prediction Market Play

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Charles Schwab, Citadel Both Mull Prediction Market Play

Traditional finance giants Charles Schwab and Citadel Securities are both considering entering prediction markets, with each separately weighing up how they wish to get involved in the fast-growing sector.

“I think at some point we likely will have prediction markets,” Rick Wurster, the CEO of the banking and investing titan Schwab, told investors during a call on Thursday.

He added that prediction markets weren’t “of tremendous interest” when he recently asked a group of Schwab clients about them, but it was an area the company would “take a hard look at, and it would be quite straightforward for us to offer.”

Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster speaking to CNBC after the company launched Bitcoin and Ether trading on Thursday. Source: CNBC

Prediction markets such as the popular Kalshi and Polymarket have exploded in use over the past few months, with both platforms seeing a record combined total monthly trading volume of $23.6 billion in March, according to Token Terminal.

However, Kalshi, Polymarket and other prediction market platforms have also caught the ire of some US state regulators, who have accused them in court of offering unlicensed sports betting.

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Some federal lawmakers have also vowed to crack down on prediction markets, claiming the platforms weren’t doing enough to stamp out insider trading.

Wurster said Schwab’s potential offering would steer away from allowing bets on areas such as sports, politics and pop culture as it looks to position itself as a partner for building long-term wealth.

“Prediction markets that are not aligned to that are not something that we want to pursue,” he said. “If you look at the stats on the success of gamblers, they’re not strong, and people generally lose money.”

Citadel “keeping an eye” on prediction markets

Meanwhile, Citadel Securities president Jim Esposito said at a Semafor conference in Washington, DC, on Thursday that the company is “absolutely keeping an eye on developments” in prediction markets. 

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Citadel Securities president Jim Esposito speaking at the Semafor World Economy conference on Thursday. Source: YouTube

“We’re not there yet, there’s not that much liquidity,” he added, but said that the market is likely to “ramp and scale,” and it was “certainly possible” that the market-making firm would potentially look to get involved.

Related: Democrats question CFTC chair on insider trading in prediction markets

Esposito said Citadel was “not looking at sports at the moment at all, I don’t see us entering that market,” but did signal an interest in some event contracts.

He added that Citadel could see its retail and institutional clients use some event contracts as a hedge for risks to their investments, such as contracts for elections, which have been known to move markets.

“That’s going to be some of the biggest risks to investors’ portfolios that they’re going to have to grapple with,” Esposito said. “Having a clean and distinct way to hedge certain risks, I think there’s a good use case and industrial logic to it.”

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Magazine: Should users be allowed to bet on war and death in prediction markets?