After weeks of subdued activity, US spot ETH ETFs also witnessed a surge in inflows.

Ethereum reclaimed the coveted $2,000 level on Wednesday, amidst a broader improvement in market tone. The world’s largest altcoin by market cap extended its gains and rallied by 8% over the past day.

But new data suggest that ETH’s price action may be entering a more unstable phase.

Ethereum at a Crossroads

Ethereum’s 30-day realized volatility on Binance has climbed to nearly 0.97. According to CryptoQuant, this is its highest level since March 2025. Such a move indicates that ETH’s daily price swings have widened significantly, in what appears to be a pivot away from the relatively calm trading conditions seen in recent weeks.

At the same time, Ethereum is trading in an area that has acted as a mid-range support zone. The combination of rising volatility and price consolidation points to an active standoff between buyers and sellers. Market participants are repositioning as they anticipate a larger move.

The analytics platform explained that this type of volatility expansion often reflects a repricing phase, rather than random short-term fluctuations.

From a structural front, the current volatility levels imply that the market has exited a low-volatility environment and entered a more reactive and uncertain phase. If volatility continues to rise in addition to the price movement, it could pave the way for a decisive directional breakout.

However, if price fails to follow through despite high volatility, ETH may remain trapped in a range until stronger conviction emerges. In past cycles, sharp increases in volatility have frequently come just before strong price rallies, which means that the market may now be at a critical turning point.

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Analysts have recently stated that Ethereum is trading within a five-year demand zone, which they say has historically favored accumulation rather than selling.

Meanwhile, the latest data from Santiment revealed that Ethereum’s 30-day MVRV sits at -5.5%, which places it in mildly undervalued territory despite the recent market rally. The negative MVRV suggests recent buyers are, on average, at a loss, a condition that historically aligns with improved risk-reward zones rather than local market tops.

Improving Sentiment

On the institutional front, US-based spot Ethereum ETFs saw a sharp pickup in demand on February 25, logging more than $157 million in net inflows – its strongest daily total in over a month. The surge was led by Fidelity’s FETH, which attracted $62 million.

Grayscale’s ETHE followed with $33.8 million in inflows, while BlackRock’s ETHA added $31 million.

Centrifuge jumps ~180% in hours on Upbit listing, then eases as traders take profits and mixed technicals flash caution.

Centrifuge’s CFG token rose more than 180% following the announcement that trading would commence on South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Upbit, according to market data.

The rally occurred as broader cryptocurrency markets posted gains, with Bitcoin advancing alongside several major alternative cryptocurrencies. The token subsequently retreated from intraday highs as traders took profits, according to trading data.

Upbit announced trading support for Centrifuge would begin on February 26, 2026, at 2 PM Korea Standard Time, according to the exchange’s statement. The listing includes spot trading pairs against the Korean won, bitcoin, and a major stablecoin. Deposit and withdrawal services were scheduled to become available shortly after the announcement, the exchange stated.

On-chain data indicated increased accumulation by large holders, referred to as “whales” in cryptocurrency markets, according to blockchain analytics. Trading volume increased substantially as the token’s price surged, market data showed.

Upbit’s user base and liquidity have historically generated significant price movements for newly listed tokens, according to market observers.

Centrifuge operates as a platform for tokenizing real-world assets, with its native token enabling governance functions that allow holders to participate in protocol decisions, according to the project’s documentation. The token’s price had followed broader cryptocurrency market declines until the Upbit listing drove prices to levels last observed in October 2025, according to historical price data.

Technical analysis presented mixed signals, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator suggesting bullish momentum while the Relative Strength Index reached levels typically associated with overbought conditions, according to chart data. The token traded above its 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages, technical indicators showed.

Market analysts noted that sustained trading volume from Korean market participants could drive prices toward higher resistance levels, though a decline below key moving averages could accelerate downside pressure.

Three companies have added Strategy’s perpetual preferred equity, Stretch (STRC), to their balance sheets as the security returns to its $100 par value.

Strategy said Prevalon Energy and Anchorage Digital disclosed during presentations at Strategy World 2026 in Las Vegas that each company has allocated a portion of its corporate treasury to STRC, Strategy’s Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock, during the “Bitcoin for Corporations” track. In separate remarks at the conference, OranjeBTC, a Brazilian bitcoin treasury company also confirmed it has added STRC to its balance sheet.

According to STRC.live, STRC briefly touched par during Wednesday’s trading session. Based on trading volume, it is estimated that roughly 22 BTC were purchased through STRC activity. In pre market trading, STRC is again at $100.

STRC is a short duration, high yield credit instrument that ranks senior to MSTR common stock and offers an 11.25% annual dividend, distributed monthly.

The conference also featured additional announcements, including 21Shares bringing STRC exposure to Europe through the Strategy Yield ETP on Euronext Amsterdam.

Separately, Morgan Stanley plans to introduce bitcoin trading, lending, yield, and custody services, with Amy Oldenburg, Head of Digital Asset Strategy at Morgan Stanley, confirming the plans during a panel discussion with Strategy CEO Phong Le.

Bitcoin is trading above $68,000, while MSTR rose 9% on Wednesday and is slightly lower in Thursday pre market trading at around $135.

Key Takeaways

• The Skeptic: Jimmy Wales predicts a crash to $10,000, calling the asset a failure.
• The Data: Prediction markets signal a 66% confidence in bullish continuation.
• The Divergence: On-chain volume and ETF flows contradict the “bubble” narrative.

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has unveiled a comprehensive proposal to implement the GENIUS Act, marking a significant step toward federally regulated stablecoin activity in the United States.

New OCC stablecoin rule proposal seeks federal oversight

The notice of proposed rulemaking, issued on February 25, outlines how payment stablecoins can be issued, backed, supervised, and potentially revoked under federal banking oversight.

Under the draft rules, the OCC would regulate “permitted payment stablecoin issuers” including subsidiaries of national banks, federal qualified issuers, certain state qualified issuers, and foreign stablecoin issuers meeting specified requirements.

The proposal sets standards for reserve assets, mandatory redemption at par, liquidity and risk management, audits, supervisory examinations, custody, and application pathways laying the groundwork for stablecoins to operate within the traditional banking system.

The OCC has opened a 60-day public comment period to gather industry, stakeholder, and public feedback before finalizing the rules. Key aspects such as anti-money-laundering provisions, Bank Secrecy Act requirements, and sanctions rules will be addressed separately in coordination with the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

Comptroller Jonathan V. Gould described the proposed framework as designed to help the stablecoin sector “flourish in a safe and sound manner,” while providing clarity and regulatory certainty for issuers operating under federal supervision.

The GENIUS Act, enacted in July 2025, created a federal regulatory structure for payment stablecoins after years of debate over how to integrate digital assets into U.S. financial law.

The OCC’s proposal represents a landmark effort to translate that statute into enforceable federal rules, potentially shaping how banks, nonbanks, and foreign firms issue and manage stablecoins in the years ahead.

The dollar is trading mixed against the major currencies as investors await important macroeconomic releases and foreign policy signals. Market participants remain cautious ahead of upcoming US data, as well as potential statements following contacts between Washington and Beijing. The trade negotiations factor and the prospect of a meeting between Donald Trump and the Chinese leader remain in focus, as any signs of progress or escalation could influence demand for safe-haven assets and the dollar’s trajectory.

Upcoming macroeconomic releases and developments in the US–China trade agenda will be decisive: either the dollar maintains its advantage and continues to strengthen, or the market shifts into a deeper correction from current levels.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair showed a strong upward impulse at the start of the week and moved closer to recent highs. The rally reflects steady demand for the dollar and relative weakness of the yen amid stable expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy and the accommodative stance of the Bank of Japan. Additional support for the dollar comes from expectations surrounding US economic data, which may confirm the resilience of the American economy.

Should the data come in strong, the move towards fresh highs may continue, while weaker figures could trigger profit-taking and a short-term correction.

Key events for USD/JPY:

• Today at 15:30 (GMT+2): US initial jobless claims;
• Today at 17:00 (GMT+2): Speech by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Michelle Bowman;
• Tomorrow at 01:30 (GMT+2): Tokyo core Consumer Price Index (CPI), Japan.

USD/CAD

The USD/CAD pair remains in a sideways phase. The pair tested the upper boundary of the range but encountered resistance and shifted into a moderate pullback. Technical analysis suggests a possible move towards the lower boundary of the medium-term range, as a “doji” reversal pattern has formed on the daily timeframe.

A confident break and consolidation above 1.3730 could allow the upward momentum to resume.

Key events for USD/CAD:

• Today at 15:30 (GMT+2): Canadian wholesale sales;
• Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+2): Canada GDP (q/q);
• Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+2): US Producer Price Index (PPI).

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Crypto exchange Gate has secured a Payment Institution license in Malta, a license under the European Union’s PSD2 framework, giving the crypto exchange a regulated foothold to offer payment services across the bloc alongside its existing crypto permissions.

The company said Thursday that its Malta-based entity, Gate Technology, received the license from the Malta Financial Services Authority (MFSA). Gate said the approval supports its strategy of linking traditional payment infrastructure with Web3 services in Europe.

The authorization adds payment capabilities to Gate’s existing EU crypto permissions. On Oct. 1, 2025, Gate announced that it had obtained a license under the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation, allowing it to provide exchange and custody services across member states.

EU crypto companies offering payment services in stablecoins must hold either a Payment Institution or an Electronic Money Institution authorization. With PSD2 approval, Gate can passport regulated payment services across the bloc, expanding beyond trading into fiat and stablecoin payment infrastructure.

Gate says its flagship exchange serves more than 49 million users globally, though it does not publicly disclose a breakdown of users in the EU.