The April 4 meeting between Nepali Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli and his Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi, on the sidelines of the 6th BIMSTEC Summit in Bangkok, Thailand, had been difficult to arrange.
Back home in Nepal, Oli had been blaming India for fomenting the growing pro-monarchy protests.
In the first sign of trouble, on March 9, around 10,000 people turned up to welcome ex-king Gyanendra Shah back to the national capital of Kathmandu from his tour of western Nepal. Few had expected so many people on the day. Then, in a sad turn of events, on March 28, two people were killed and scores of others were injured in clashes between pro-monarchy supporters and police.
Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist party officially declared that India was supporting the protesters.
But while on one hand Oli was busy accusing India, on the other, he desperately sought an audience with the Indian prime minister. Many reckon his anti-India posturing was also aimed at getting Modi’s attention.
Oli got his wish when Modi consented to see him for around half an hour in Bangkok.
As things turned out, the two spoke for nearly 45 minutes, around 30 minutes of which were spent in a one-on-one dialogue. After the meeting, Oli was reportedly upbeat, saying he expected India to invite him for an official visit to New Delhi soon. Yet, besides the usual bromides, little of substance emerged from this meeting.
A trip to New Delhi is considered a rite of passage when a new prime minister assumes office in Nepal. It signals that India welcomes the new government and is ready to do business with it.
But India has yet to invite Oli, even though it has been nearly nine months since he became prime minister. After repeatedly failing to get an invitation from New Delhi, the Nepali prime minister decided to go to Beijing in December 2024. There, he oversaw the signing of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Cooperation Framework for the operationalization of the Nepal-China BRI agreement.
This time, in Bangkok, Modi is believed to have conveyed that if Oli wants to improve ties with New Delhi, the ball is firmly in his court.
On his return to Kathmandu, when Oli was questioned about the meeting with Modi possibly laying the ground for his New Delhi trip, the prime minister replied that the reason he had not gone to India so far was because of his own busy schedule. Unlike in Bangkok, he also sounded far less sure of getting an invitation from New Delhi and sidestepped any such hints.
During the Bangkok meeting, Oli had also invited Modi for Sagarmatha Sambat (May 16-18), Nepal’s flagship international dialogue platform in the image of India’s Raisina Dialogue and Singapore’s Shangri-La Dialogue. Modi apparently replied that he would not be coming as the Sambat dates clash with his Europe trip.
So, optics aside, one, Modi is not coming to Nepal soon, and two, Oli has not gotten an invitation to visit New Delhi, something which he had been desperately trying to secure.
There continue to be fundamental differences between Oli and New Delhi. India has not forgotten that it was under his leadership that Nepal inserted into its constitution a new Nepali national map that includes all the territory of the Kalapani region, at least some of which India claims. In fact, Modi is believed to have told Oli in Bangkok that “Nepal must abandon its irrational claim over a 335-square-kilometer area in Uttarakhand encompassing Limpiyadhura, Kalapani, and Lipulekh.”
Oli has also claimed that Lord Rama was born in Nepal and mocked India’s national emblem, which he said should read “Singhamev Jayate” (might will prevail) rather than “Satyamev Jayate” (truth will prevail). It was also Oli who took the initiative to sign landmark trade and transit agreements with China following the 2015-16 unofficial Indian blockade.
There is still a lot of resistance in New Delhi to giving Oli any benefit of doubt and to normalizing ties with his government.
If anything, India could make life more difficult for Oli as the pro-monarchy and pro-Hindu state rallies gain ground in Nepal. Whether or not New Delhi is actively supporting the reinstatement of a Hindu state and monarch, it could use these protests as leverage against Oli at a time when the Nepali prime minister faces considerable pressures at home, not just from the opposition but even from his coalition partners.
It is in the interest of both Kathmandu and Oli to carefully calibrate relations with New Delhi in the new context. For one, Oli should tone down his India-bashing. His strategy of sounding tough to get Modi’s attention is not working.
