Steve Clarke’s side face five-time world champions Brazil in Miami as they look to seal a place in the knockouts
Scotland are looking to seal their place in the knockout stages of the World Cup, and their final group match could hardly be tougher as they face five-time champions Brazil in Miami.
Steve Clarke’s side kicked off their first World Cup campaign in 28 years with a 1-0 win over Haiti in the opening round, but they were then beaten by the same scoreline against Morocco. They currently sit in third position in Group C with three points, just behind the Brazilians and Moroccans, who are first and second respectively with four points.
With this summer’s competition expanding to 48 sides, a whopping 32 teams will make it through to the knockout stages, meaning it is in fact more difficult to be eliminated than qualify.
While the top two teams in each group go through automatically, eight of the 12 third-placed teams at the end of the group stage will also go through to the round of 32, with Scotland currently in a strong position to do just that.
A first-ever win against Brazil on Wednesday night would see Clarke’s side finish in the top two in their group and go through automatically, while a draw would also all but seal their place in the knockout rounds.
Even a defeat would not mean that Scotland’s World Cup journey was necessarily over, as they currently have the second-best record out of the teams currently in third place. With three points after two games and a goal difference of zero, they are level with Sweden, who top the third-place table.
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But while they are sitting comfortably for now, a heavy defeat against Brazil could dramatically change the story for Scotland, as their goal difference would take a sizeable hit.
As the BBC reports, Opta statistics show that while a team finishing third with a goal difference of zero has a 95% chance of progressing to the knockout stage, this drops to 84% for a difference of -1, to 63% for -2, 42% for -3 and 27% for -4.
If they lose, Scotland are set to face an anxious wait for the rest of the week, as they may not have their place in the knockout stages confirmed until Sunday morning, when the final round of group stage matches are set to be played.
To put them at a further disadvantage, the third-placed teams playing later in the week will have a clearer picture of what results they need to qualify, and as a result may look to play for a draw or ‘park the bus’ in order to defend their goal difference.
In summary, if Scotland lose, they will need as many groups as possible to end with two teams finishing on fewer than three points. Here is a breakdown of the results the Tartan Army need to be mindful of over the next week.
Group A – For Scotland, the best case scenario in this group would be for Mexico to beat the Czech Republic and for South Korea to defeat South Africa, as that would leave the team in third on one point. However, the worst case scenario would be wins for South Africa and the Czech Republic, as the team in third would then be on four points.
Group B – Wednesday night’s clash between Bosnia-Herzegovina and Qatar could have an impact on Scotland’s knockout hopes, as a draw would leave the third-placed team in their group on no more than two points. However, a win either way would see the third-placed team on four points.
Group D – With Turkey already out, either Australia or Paraguay will finish in third. The two sides meet in their final game, and a win for either team would mean the side finishing third would do so on three points. However, a draw would leave the third-placed side on four points.
Group E – Ecuador and Curacao currently sit in third and fourth respectively with one point apiece. They will take on Germany and Ivory Coast respectively in their final games, and Scotland will be hoping for them both to lose. However, if they can spring a couple of surprises, the group may end with the third-placed team on four points.
Group F – A heavy defeat for Sweden against second-placed Japan could see Scotland move to the top of the third-placed table – but a point for Sweden would leave the third-placed side in the group on at least four points.
Group G – All Scottish eyes will be on the showdown between Egypt and Iran, with an Egyptian win set to guarantee that the team finishing third in the group will do so with fewer than three points.
Group H – A Spanish win against Uruguay would ensure that the team in third could only finish on a maximum of two points.
Group I – The most favourable result as far as Scotland are concerned would be a draw between Senegal and Iran, which would see the team in third finish on just one point.
Group J – With Austria and Algeria currently sitting in second and third respectively on three points, the best case scenario for Scotland would be a heavy victory for one of those teams when they meet each other in their final group game. The worst case scenario would be a draw in that game, as it would mean the third-placed team would finish on four points.
Group K – Uzbekistan and DR Congo will meet in their final group game, and Scotland will want to avoid a win for the latter, as that would put them third on four points. A win for Uzbekistan, however, would be ideal for Clarke’s side, as it would see them finish third on three points but likely with a poor goal difference, which currently sits at -7.
Group L – The best case scenario for Scotland would be for Ghana to record a big win against Croatia and for Panama to fail to beat England, as this would ensure the third-placed team finishing on three points with a poor goal difference. However, if Croatia are able to gain a point or more against Ghana, the third-placed finisher would do so on four points.
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