Lord Robertson’s claim that the UK cannot defend itself with an “ever-expanding” welfare budget has resonated loudly, given his previous positions as a Nato secretary-general and UK defence secretary. Following up on the UK’s 2025 strategic defence review, which he led, Robertson warned that low investment is leaving UK security “in peril”.

The comments have instant appeal in one sense. Defence is indeed awarded a far smaller share of the pie than social protection: 6.5% of total managed expenditure for 2026/27 against 28%, according to estimates.

The UK’s budget deficit is adding to already high public debt, and the IMF has forecast that Britain will be hit harder than other countries by the economic effects of the Iran hostilities. The government is already seeking savings from other departments as it tries to raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027.

But the idea of a simple trade-off, with more weapons requiring less welfare, confuses two very different types of public spending.

Defence is part of “final” public expenditure, funding armed forces’ pay and the weapons and equipment they work with. This takes up money that can’t be assigned elsewhere in the budget, and consumes a share of national output when the government spends it.

In contrast, the welfare budget consists mainly of “transfer payments” that shift income between households. Some transfers are made according to assessed need, others also depend on past national insurance contributions. All represent a redistribution of income without any exchange of goods or services, leaving recipients to decide what to do with the money. This allows prices to steer spending away from scarce resources, while some is used to repay debts or clawed back in tax.

Demands on the public purse

As the government’s overall budget is in deficit (to the tune of around 4.5% of national income in 2025/26), it is true that welfare payments compete with other demands on the public purse. But the boost to recipients’ income is still largely offset by taxes collected from better-off households.

In principle, a country could raise its welfare budget to 100% of its GDP, by collecting all the money generated by production as tax and then paying it out to households. It would compromise efficiency, as happened in Europe’s “state socialist” countries before 1989. But such an economy could still function.

In contrast, raising the defence budget even to 3% of GDP – the UK’s target for the next parliament – will cause political and economic strain. This is due to the trade-off against other final expenditures, including healthcare, education and policing – all equally vital for national survival and security.

The UK and other countries with large welfare systems have reformed them with the aim of adding at least as much to output as to demand. Transfer payments are increasingly designed to keep people economically active, moving into new and more productive work. This matching of extra income to extra production keeps the inflation risk low, even if the government is “printing money” to fund some of its transfer payments.

Extra defence spending carries greater inflation risks. Paying for more weapons and military training generates new income and demand for consumer products. At the same time it can divert workers and materials away from civilian production, into military hardware that is intended never to be used.

Stronger defence could boost production as much as consumption if, as many advocates claim, it stimulates investment and innovations that other industries can adopt. The Manhattan Project remains a standout example of “mission-oriented” military spending that sped the arrival of new technologies and methods of organisation.

Studies confirm a pick-up in innovation and growth after major increases in military spending. But these tend to focus on the US and trace the improvement to increased research and development (R&D). Growth might be stimulated equally well, making more weapons and more welfare an affordable option, if greater sums went into R&D without a link to war preparations.

Of course, defence can be counted as an even more productive investment if, through effective deterrence, it prevents costly wars that would devastate civil production.

But again, there is an important difference between investing in military hardware and in social protection. The welfare bill is hard to forecast, as it varies with the state of the economy and trends in income and employment. But when transfer payments enable people to recover their health or acquire new skills and return to work – or when they keep pensioners out of poverty – the government gets a rapid return on its investment and reduces longer-term costs.

Investment in more soldiers and equipment may be easier to control in the short term. But it commits the government to maintenance and upgrades over the long term, without which the fighting capacity can soon become non-operational. The UK has a history of cost overshoots and delays keeping tanks and ships out of service. That’s why a Treasury set on cost-effectiveness will always choose butter over guns.

Homelessness charity Centrepoint has confirmed it has no plans to work with Sharon Osbourne in the future after she publicly endorsed a rally organised by right-wing activist Tommy Robinson.

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Sharon Osbourne has been cut ties with by a charity after publicly backing a rally organised by controversial right-wing figure Tommy Robinson.

Homelessness charity Centrepoint has announced it has “no plans to work together in the future” with Sharon after she openly supported an upcoming demonstration orchestrated by Robinson.

In an online statement, Robinson declared he was organising the march for individuals “who have had enough of migration and mass immigration and the oppression from a tyrannical government”.

The TV star, perhaps most recognised from her time on The X Factor, used her official Instagram profile to write: “See you at the march” under a post advertising the event planned for next month, titled ‘Unite The Kingdom’. The demonstration intends to “bring London to a total standstill”.

Osbourne, whose husband, Black Sabbath icon Ozzy Osbourne, died last July at the age of 76, had previously backed Centrepoint through its Omaze fundraising campaign, offering the public a chance to win a high-end property, reports the Irish Mirror.

A Centrepoint representative made clear: “Sharon supported us on this campaign and, while she is referred to as an ambassador in that context, she was not an official ambassador for Centrepoint.”, reports the Mirror. “We have no plans to work together in the future. Political activity like this runs counter to our values and our long history of supporting young people regardless of their background, religion or ethnicity.

“If we want young people to thrive in this country, then we need to ensure our society continues to allow them to live without fear and to access the opportunities they need to start education or work and leave homelessness behind.”

The Unite the Kingdom rally is due to be held in London on 16 May, spearheaded by right-wing activist Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon. The last demonstration in September drew crowds estimated at between 110,000 and 150,000 attendees.

In recent times, Mrs O has generated growing controversy, including online involvement with anti-immigrant campaigns. Robinson, whose birth name is Stephen Christopher Yaxley-Lennon, co-founded the English Defence League. His 2005 conviction stemmed from assaulting an off-duty police officer.

Another assault conviction followed in 2011, resulting in a suspended sentence for head-butting someone at an EDL rally in Lancashire. That July, Robinson was given a 12-month community rehabilitation order after leading a brawl involving roughly 100 football supporters in Luton during 2010. Two years afterwards, he was imprisoned for passport fraud after attempting to enter America using someone else’s identity. In January 2014, the activist received an 18-month jail term for “conspiring with others to obtain a mortgage by misrepresentation from the Abbey and Halifax banks”. He found himself back behind bars in 2019 following a contempt of court conviction.

A five-year stalking protection order was imposed upon him in 2021 after journalist Lizzie Dearden and her partner, Samuel Partridge, filed a complaint with police. Come May 2025, he walked free halfway through an 18-month sentence he’d been serving for breaching an injunction that barred him from repeating unfounded claims about a Syrian refugee.

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Aidan Walsh, 28, had taken cocaine and cannabis before carrying out a three-point turn and driving into oncoming traffic.

A man’s motives for driving five miles the wrong way down a motorway before a fatal head-on crash “will never be known”, a probe has concluded.

Aidan Walsh, 28, had taken cocaine and cannabis before carrying out a three-point turn on the M20 and driving into oncoming traffic. The labourer, from Folkestone, Kent, dodged vehicles for seven minutes before a crash with van left him with “unsurvivable” injuries.

An inquest heard there was no clear explanation for why he turned around in the moments leading up to the crash, which happened as both drivers tried to avoid each other.

Mr Walsh had been driving a VW Polo on the London-bound carriageway between Junction 8 for Maidstone and Junction 9 for Ashford shortly before 11.30pm on November 12 when the crash happened, the Mirror reports.

In a statement read to the court, PC Darren Chapman said CCTV showed the car stopping in the road before turning around on the hard shoulder and heading in the wrong direction.

Police received multiple 999 calls at 11.28pm reporting the car travelling the wrong way, with the driver seen “swerving” between lanes. At about 11.35pm, dashcam footage from the Mercedes Sprinter van showed Mr Walsh’s headlights approaching in the distance.

The driver of the van, named only as Mr Neville, attempted to move into the other lane to avoid the oncoming car but Mr Walsh made the same manoeuvre and the vehicles collided head-on.

Mr Walsh suffered catastrophic injuries and was taken to King’s College Hospital in London, where he died the next day. The van driver escaped with minor injuries.

PC Chapman said Mr Walsh had been to visit a friend in Orpington, where it was later revealed he had smoked cannabis. Toxicology tests also revealed significant levels of cocaine in his system.

Coroner Ian Potter said the Chatham-born labourer had a history of addiction and had 70 micrograms of cocaine per litre of blood – seven times the legal driving limit.

The coroner also said the distance he had travelled while avoiding traffic indicated he did not intend to crash. In his conclusion, the investigating officer described the death as a “very sad and unusual collision”.

They added: “It remains unknown why Mr Walsh made a conscious decision to drive in the opposite direction before colliding with an oncoming vehicle. The only person able to answer that question is, very sadly, no longer here.”

Recording a conclusion of road traffic collision, the coroner said: “This is a very tragic incident. I can’t begin to imagine the pain, heartbreak and upset this causes to Mr Walsh’s friends and family and those involved. For reasons unknown, we’ll never know exactly why Mr Walsh undertook a three-point turn and began to drive in the incorrect direction.”

He added: “Mr Walsh moved from one lane to the middle lane to avoid the collision with the van. It is incredibly unfortunate that he took action at the same time as the van takes action in the same direction, making a collision at speed inevitable. This was nothing but a tragic accident. There was no evidence Mr Walsh intended to end his own life.”

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Spoilers are becoming a bigger and bigger problem these days.

People just don’t seem to care about ruining films and TV shows like they used to.

As a result, most people avoid social media like the plague when there’s a new series or movie out so that they can enjoy the work the way the creator intended.

Still, while everyone and their mum expect social media to spoil the fun, they have higher expectations of TV series.

Because surely no show would knowingly spoil something… would they?

Enter Gogglebox.

Yes, last night the oddly addictive show where we watch people on TV watch TV (it’s better than it sounds) spoiled one of the biggest thrillers of 2025.

Specifically, they spoiled the Sydney Sweeney drama The Housemaid by revealing … basically everything that happens in the film.

Not to follow in GoggleBox’s footsteps, but when we watched the clip, they spoiled every big twist in the film, including the ending.

Needless to say, viewers weren’t happy, and they vented their fury on social media.

@BrianOhJames wrote: ‘How can C4 get away with showing an entire movie, including unexpected twists… for laughs?’

‘Well, I won’t need to watch the Housemaid now,’ added @sundaygirl851.

Meanwhile, @Katie_Lewis said: ‘Gogglebox spoiling the Housemaid film for everyone who hadn’t seen it.’

The Housemaid, which is based on the book of the same name by Freida McFadden, was one of 2025’s most shocking thrillers.

Starring Sydney Sweeney, Amanda Seyfried, and Brandon Sklenar and follows Millie Calloway, who becomes the live-in maid for a wealthy family, but quickly realises all is not well beneath the family’s suburban sheen.

Grossing $401.7million against a reported $35million budget, the film was a slow-burning hit at the box office and earned respectable reviews from critics.

Boasting an impressive 73% on Rotten Tomatoes, the film has been described as a fun throwback to the steamy thrillers of yesteryear, with particular praise offered to Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried.

Metro’s own Tori Brazer wrote in her 3-star review that the film was ‘a pulpy tongue-in-cheek adaptation of a breezy thriller that will slip down smoothly’.

Although she admitted that ‘putting it up on the big screen does emphasise the more fanciful elements and plot holes.’

Variety’s Owen Gleiberman said it’s ‘a movie of diabolical developments, and that’s what’s captivating about it. That, and Elizabeth Perkins’ droll performance as a mother-in-law from WASP hell.’

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A man was seen to approach a row of shops with a plastic bag containing what was three bottles.

Counter-terror police are leading an investigation into an arson attack on a business on Friday night. A man was seen to approach a row of shops with a plastic bag containing what was later found to be three bottles containing fluid.

He placed the bag next to the building and lit the items inside, but the bottles failed to fully ignite. There was minor damage to the shop front but no injuries were reported.

The man fled the scene in Hendon, north-west London. The Mirror reports that Metropolitan Police officers were called shortly after 10.30pm following reports of the incident.

They said the investigation is being led by Counter Terrorism Policing London, supported by officers from the North West Command Area. However, the force said it is not being treated as a terrorist incident.

A spokesperson said: “Officers are keeping an open mind about the motive behind the attack. No arrests have been made at this time.”

Commander Helen Flanagan, of Counter Terrorism Policing London, said: “At this stage last night’s arson is not being linked to other incidents in the North West London area over the last week or last month’s arson in Golders Green but Counter Terrorism officers are leading due to the similarities of each attack.

“I would ask that anyone with information or footage that could help our investigation gets in touch with police as soon as possible. We will be relentless in our pursuit of those responsible for this and other, similar, hateful acts against London’s communities.”

Detective Chief Superintendent Luke Williams, who leads policing in the area, said: “Since the incident in Golders Green last month we have spoken extensively to community leaders. I understand and appreciate their concerns, and I know this latest incident will add to fears in the community.

“Local officers are working closely with Counter Terrorism Policing to support the investigation. The community can expect to see a heightened police presence in the area. Since last month’s attack in Golders Green, we have stepped up police patrols and vigilance to reassure communities and disrupt offenders.

“This includes armed police patrols as well as deployments of officers from Project Servator, who are specially trained to spot anyone who may be planning or preparing to commit criminal acts.”

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Iran has reportedly attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz after earlier announcing the waterway had again been closed to shipping

Two gunboats belonging to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have opened fire on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, according to the UK’s maritime security monitoring service.

On Saturday morning, the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre (UKMTO) confirmed that both the tanker and its crew were reported to be safe.

Its map indicates the attack took place off the north-west coast of the United Arab Emirates.

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The UKMTO, which serves as the primary point of contact between military authorities and merchant vessels, stated that authorities are currently investigating the incident.

The UK warning stated: “Master UKMTO has received a report of an incident 20nm (nautical miles) northeast of Oman.

“The Master of a tanker reports being approached by two IRGC gun boats, no VHF challenge, that then fired upon the tanker.

“Tanker and crew are reported safe. Authorities are investigating.”

Earlier on Saturday, Iran announced it had reimposed restrictions on the crucial waterway, after the US declared that reopening the strait would not bring an end to its blockade of Iran-linked shipping.

The statement came the morning after President Donald Trump declared that the American blockade “will remain in full force” until Tehran reaches a deal with the US, including on its nuclear programme.

The dispute over the crucial chokepoint threatened to worsen the energy crisis already weighing on the global economy.

Oil prices began to slip again on Friday amid hopes that the US and Iran were edging closer to an agreement.

About a fifth of the world’s oil passes through the strait and further limits would squeeze already constrained supply, driving prices higher again.

Control over the strait has proven to be one Iran’s main points of leverage and prompted the US to deploy forces and initiate a blockade on Iranian ports.

The blockade is part of an effort to force Tehran to accept a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire to end almost seven weeks of war between Israel, the US and Iran.

Despite the escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, Pakistani officials say the US and Iran are still moving closer to a deal ahead of the April 22 ceasefire deadline.

Foreign minister Ishaq Dar said the ceasefire in Lebanon was a positive sign, noting that fighting between Israel and Hezbollah had been a key sticking point before talks in Islamabad ended “very close” to an agreement last weekend.

Passengers on services travelling both north and southbound were affected, with delays for several hours due to the incident between Retford and Newark Northgate, in Nottinghamshire, on Thursday evening into Friday morning.

At one stage the intruder on the track was said to be on a rail bridge over a river, amid concerns he may fall.

But the incident was finally resolved and brought “to a safe conclusion” with the help of trained negotiators at 3.20am yesterday (Friday April 17).

At one stage nine trains were detained in a holding queue, including Lumo, Hull Trains, Grand Central Rail and LNER services.

LNER said in a statement that it apologised “unreservedly” for the subsequent knock-on delays but explained they were down to trains and passengers being out of place due to the overnight disruption.

David Horne, LNER managing director, said: “I would like to offer my profound apologies to all those whose journeys have been affected.

“We are aware that people were waiting at stations and onboard our trains for a long time, and we know that our customers will have been travelling for important reasons.

“I want to reassure everyone that our teams, both on the ground and behind the scenes, were working hard to get people moving towards their destinations as quickly as possible.

“However, due to the sensitivity of the incident and with the safety of everyone involved being paramount, we could only run our services through the affected area when British Transport Police determined it was safe to do so.

“We thank our customers for their patience and understanding while teams responded to the sensitive situation.”

A British Transport Police spokesperson said: “We were called just before 7:40pm yesterday (April 16) to reports of a trespasser on the line near Retford Railway Station.

“Officers responded alongside Nottinghamshire Police and other emergency services, and a man was located in a precarious position on a bridge.

“A specialist police negotiator also attended the scene to bring the incident to a safe conclusion due to concerns for the man’s welfare.

“At 3.20am on April 17, the man was arrested on suspicion of obstructing the railway and taken into police custody where he remains.”

Gunnar Lindahl, joint operations director for Network Rail and LNER, said: “Our teams worked closely with the emergency services and train operators during this serious and sensitive incident to keep everyone safe and reopen the railway as soon as it was safe to do so.

“We’re sorry to anyone whose journey was affected while the situation was brought to a safe conclusion.

“Once the line was clear, our teams worked quickly to restore services and support operators in getting trains on the move again.”

LNER customers booked on services on April 16 or 17 are eligible to use their existing tickets on any LNER service to their destination up to, and including, Monday April 20.

Customers were advised to make a new seat reservation, for free, via the LNER app, website, or at its Travel Centres.

One of the affected passengers, James Horton, who was on a Kings Cross to Edinburgh LNER service on Thursday evening, finally reached Edinburgh Waverley station several hours later than planned, shortly after 8am on Friday.

But he was full of praise for rail staff on the train on which he was on board.

Taking to social media platform LinkedIn, he said they handled “a difficult situation”, which was not of their making, “very well”.

Mr Horton added: “I can’t thank the staff on the train personally, but credit should be given to them.

“Everyone got to where they needed to be and coffee and water were served all night and morning.”

Mojtaba Khamenei praised his forces for standing up to American and Israeli “arrogance” before warning of “new defeats”.

Iran’s Supreme Leader has blasted Donald Trump and US forces in a fiery new threat. Mojtaba Khamenei praised his forces for standing up to American and Israeli “arrogance” before warning of “new defeats”.

He also boasted that his enemies have had their “weakness and humiliation” exposed to the world, in a new statement released via an Iranian state news agency.

Mojtaba has not been seen in public since the US-Israel war with Iran began and was chosen as the new leader after his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the initial strikes in February. Mojtaba spoke of how his army has “stood up to America’s sinister schemes”.

His statement said: “With its strong divine and popular support and in dense, fortified ranks, it [the army] stands shoulder to shoulder with other mujahideen of the armed forces against the two armies at the forefront of the front of kufr (disbelief) and arrogance, clashing with them hand-to-hand and exposing their weakness and humiliation to the eyes of the world; just as its drones strike like lightning against the American and Zionist criminals, its brave navy is ready to make the enemies taste the bitterness of new defeats.”

The warning comes after Iran today said it was closing the Strait of Hormuz again, writes the Mirror. There have already been reports of Iranian gun boats opening fire on tankers attempting to cross the crucial waterway.

Mojtaba finished his message by saying: “Greetings and blessings of the Almighty upon all the mujahideen of the Islamic Republic Army of Iran, from its emirs and commanders to its staff and silent, anonymous soldiers; and greetings and blessings of the Almighty upon all its self-sacrificing volunteers and wounded veterans; and His special mercy upon the honorable families of all the martyrs of the imposed war waged by America and the Zionist regime against the great nation of Iran. And peace be upon you, and the mercy and blessings of Allah.”

Iran’s joint military command also said on Saturday that control of the Strait of Hormuz has “returned to its previous state… under strict management and control of the armed forces”.

It warned that it would continue to block passage through the strait as long as the US blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect.

Two gunboats from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard opened fire on a tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center said. It said the tanker and crew are safe but did not identify the vessel.

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