‘The world is on fire’ and Britain’s allies are ‘dismayed’ by our failure to prepare for war, MPs were told today in the starkest warning yet about a future conflict with Russia.
General Sir Richard Barrons and Lord Robertson, who wrote a defence plan rejected by Downing Street as unaffordable, offered a terrifying view of the UK’s vulnerabilities.
Appearing before a parliamentary committee today they exposed how this country is comfortably in range of Russian ballistic missiles and how its defences are near non-existent.
Gen Sir Richard and Lord Robertson previously wrote the Strategic Defence Review (SDR) which was published last year and set out the requirements for Britain to thwart Kremlin aggression.
The SDR was supposed to be followed urgently by the government’s Defence Investment Plan (DIP) but instead ministers wasted a year arguing what cuts to make.
A plan for an ‘Iron Dome’ to protect Britain’s major cities from Russian aerial attacks was costed at a basic £80billion – yet Labour offered just £1billion as part of the DIP.
An explosion lights up the sky over Kyiv early yesterday as Russian missiles targeted the Ukrainian capital city. The West is next MPs were told today and Britain is vulnerable.
General Sir Richard Barrons, a former UK government advisor on defence lambasted Labour’s record today, including that ministers wasted a year in the race to prepare for possible conflict with Russia.
Former NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson criticised UK government failures to publish the Defence Investment Plan (DIP) and warned Sir Keir Starmer could face stinging criticism from US President Donald Trump, and other allies, at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey.
Speaking in detail for the first time about the Labour government’s failure to address Britain’s vulnerabilities, Sir Richard told the Defence Committee:
‘The world is on fire now. The UK does not own the clock on when we need to be ready by. It is set by Russia and likely on the back of an outcome in Ukraine. Which is why people talk credibly about 2030 or sooner.
‘Integrated missile defence is the iconic thing that did not get into the SDR. But we got £1 billion for it in the DIP. That buys you some improvements to defence missiles, some improvements to the Type 45s [air defence warships] and advanced command and control. You’ll know better that you are going to be hit by a missile.
‘Entry level Integrated Missile Defence (IMD) is probably £80 billion over ten years. The IMD of my dreams is probably £120billion. People assume there is a sort of ‘Iron Dome’ over London but it is not even remotely there. We shouldn’t kid ourselves that if we have arguments around the margins of the DIP that we are somehow fixing defence. It’s just not true.’
Sir Richard continued that Labour’s delay over publishing the DIP has depleted the UK’s defence industrial base, as companies either went bust or accepted foreign orders for weapons as ministers awaited guidance on how much to spend.
Sir Richard said Labour’s shambles over defence was ‘profoundly dangerous’ and also made no sense considering Sir Keir Starmer has warned how Britain could be involved in direct conflict with Russia by 2030.
Another alarming factor is how President Putin appears increasingly willing to lash out towards the West and is targeting the UK, they told the committee.
It emerged yesterday how a Russian aircraft harassed the Royal Navy’s £3.5billion aircraft carrier the HMS Prince of Wales in the Norwegian Sea and how Kremlin drones launched from a shadow fleet vessel in the North Sea flew over UK nuclear facilities and airbases in 2024.
Meanwhile, Russia’s ally Iran fired a ballistic missile towards the UK’s airbase on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia after Downing Street accepted a US request to use the airbase for long-range bombing missions targeting Tehran’s Islamic dictatorship earlier this year.
MPs were warned Russian President Vladimir Putin appears willing to escalate the conflict in Ukraine.
Sir Richard added: ‘The delay publishing the DIP was significant as the SDR had articulated a narrative for war in the 21st Century, it had built a sense of expectation and relief. Then there was no money and nothing happened. By far the most dangerous consequence of the delay was the Prime Minister saying Russia could attack NATO by 2030 and then we lost a year of mobilising for that. That was profoundly dangerous.
‘We’ve gone from the UK being a major NATO spender to 12th and, ranked against our capability targets you are 31 from 32 and the other member does not have any armed forces. So how do you implement the SDR fast enough to deter your enemies and to be the leading influence we keep claiming to be? That brings you back to the money. Find more money sooner. Make different choices. That’s it.’
Sir Richard and Lord Robertson explained how the SDR was drafted on the assumption that the UK was going to spend 3.0 per cent of GDP ‘by the new parliament’, which would mean 2028 or 2029. Instead, based on current Labour spending projections, the UK will spend a mere 2.7 per cent by 2030.
Sir Richard explained: ‘It was clear by last summer that they [the government] had looked at the figures, added some new things in and it was clear there was a gap. Let’s say that was £24billion over four years –to implement the 62 recommendations and the money the government wanted to find in those four years.
‘We knew there was no new money for the first two years and then only a dribble for the rest of this parliament. That wasn’t a surprise. What it is exposed was a really clear choice. If you want to implement this review, and you have said that you do, you will have to find more money sooner.
‘If you won’t find more money sooner then what would you like to cut from the review you have just announced? And they went around in that circle three times a week, every week between September [2025] until basically when the announcement was made. And for me that just was not good enough.’
He said: ‘Our allies are dismayed. They look at how long it has taken, the delay putting the flesh on the bones. It confused them. The Prime Minister is in Ankara for the NATO summit. He will be sitting beside President Trump in alphabetical order around the North Atlantic Council table. Relations may be quite frosty.
‘Allies around the table are stepping up to the mark and are spending more on defence and some of the bigger countries like Germany and Poland are spending considerably more than we are. The delay and the reality will have disturbed our allies who have expected more of the United Kingdom given we have always claimed to have a leading role in NATO.
‘We said in the SDR it may be necessary to go faster. The plan can be accelerated. We are running out of years. The reality is the challenge is bigger now, more serious and more clear than we anticipated. Yet the Defence Investment Plan itself doesn’t come up to it.’
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