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Exclusive: Count Climate Spending As Part Of Defence Budget, Say Greens

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Exclusive: Count Climate Spending As Part Of Defence Budget, Say Greens

Spending on climate change should count towards the government’s defence budget, according to the Greens.

HuffPost UK can reveal that the party believes Labour should “broaden its lens on defence spending and be more realistic about the threats facing us” amid rising fears over global warming.

Keir Starmer unveiled his long-awaited Defence Investment Plan (DIP) on Tuesday, setting out plans to boost the defence budget by an additional £15 billion by the end of the decade.

But he did not explain how the government plans to hit its target of spending 3.5% of national income on defence by 2035.

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It has since emerged there is a £4.7bn black hole in that defence uplift, too.

HuffPost UK has learned that the Greens believe funds to protect Britain against the changing climate should be part of that defence spending.

It comes after record-breaking temperatures in June, causing widespread disruption to life in the UK.

A party source told HuffPost UK: “Climate preparedness is the black hole at the heart of the current conversation about defence spending.

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“Climate breakdown is a huge and imminent threat but currently the government seems to be totally asleep at the wheel when it comes to the impact on our security.

“Spain is a very interesting example, where they’re looking at using the defence spending budget to combat climate impacts.”

Spanish prime minister Pedro Sanchez called for a wider definition of defence spending to include cyber security, anti-terrorism and efforts to combat climate change last year.

When the Trump administration first began pressuring Nato allies to pay more for its own security, Sanchez warned policymakers had to recognise the “real threat of the climate emergency in the Mediterranean”.

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He said in May 2025 that 17% of that year’s military spending would go towards natural disaster relief.

Green Party leader Zack Polanski told HuffPost UK: “Thinking about security only in terms of military spending is incredibly short sighted.

“We face a number of serious, overlapping threats from cyber-warfare to the climate crisis and there is little evidence the government is taking seriously this full spectrum – especially given they tried to suppress a report on the huge risks posed by the collapse of ecosystems.

“The impact of extreme heat in the last week alone shows how vulnerable we are to the impacts of the climate and nature crisis.

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“Infrastructure breaking down, schools and hospitals overheated, and serious risks to life. And yet the government seems to have no plan for dealing with this urgent threat.

“Any prime minister committed to keeping the people of this country safe must look at security in the round, which means not cutting investment in other areas to fund military spending but investing to boost resilience in all areas from cyber-security to our food systems.”

Listen to Commons People, the podcast that makes politics easy. Every week, Kevin Schofield and Kate Nicholson unpack the week’s biggest stories to keep you informed. Join us for straightforward analysis of what’s going on at Westminster.

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Tributes to ‘beautiful soul’, 18, killed in car crash who will be ‘eternally missed’

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Daily Record

Tallulah Bradford, 18, died after being struck by a vehicle in Southend

The devastated loved ones of a teenage girl have paid an emotional tribute, saying the loss of her “beautiful soul” has left “a hole in many hearts”.

On Saturday, June 13, emergency services rushed to Chalkwell Park in Southend following reports that a group of individuals had taken unauthorised control of a small articulated loading vehicle. Tallulah Bradford, 18, was struck by the vehicle and heartbreakingly passed away days later on June 19.

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Her distraught mother described the youngster as a “beautiful soul”, reports Essex Live.

In a moving statement, she said: “Tallulah was not only a daughter to me, she was the bestest friend. She was an amazing sister, granddaughter, niece and cousin and was loved by all who knew her.

“She was a beautiful, hardworking, fun and outgoing young girl. Tallulah always lived her best life, had a beautiful soul and life will never be the same without her.”

“Losing Tallulah has left a hole in many hearts that could never be filled but we will forever be grateful for the memories we have made with her. We will miss her eternally.

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“We would like to thank the emergency services who cared for Tallulah when she needed it the most.”

Tallulah’s closest friend, Macie, also offered a heartfelt tribute to the teenager.

She said: “Tallulah was more than just a friend to me, she was my best friend who had been by my side since we met at school at the age of five. Growing up we shared so many secrets, laughter, good times and memories that will be cherished for a lifetime.

“Her craziness and beautiful spirit will stay with me forever and I’m grateful to have had her by my side. She will always be deeply missed and never be forgotten. Love you always, be the brightest star in the sky.”

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Her mate Shannon also remarked: “Tallulah was kind-hearted, caring, generous and most of all the biggest diva. She wasn’t just a friend to me, she was like a sister.

“I wouldn’t be the person I am today if it wasn’t for her. She will forever be missed and loved. I’ll forever cherish every memory that we have together and we will make sure she is forever remembered as the special girl she was.”

Another close friend Mya commented: “Tallulah was more than my best friend, she was family. Thank you for filling my life with laughter and unforgettable memories.

“Her kindness, strength, and beautiful spirit touched everyone who knew her, and I will always treasure the special bond we shared. Life will never be the same without you, and there will always be a space in my heart that belongs to you.

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“Though you’re no longer here, your love and the memories we created together will stay with me forever.”

Essex Police confirmed investigations into the tragedy continue, with an 18-year-old man from Westcliff and a 17-year-old boy arrested in relation to the incident. Both suspects have been released on bail until September.

In an official statement, the force said: “We know there were a large number of young people in the area at the time, and we believe some may have witnessed what happened. We need anyone who has information and who we’ve not already spoken with to come forward.

“If you have any information, CCTV, dash cam or other footage in relation to this incident, then please get in contact with us. Please quote incident 39 of 13 June.

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“You can let us know by submitting a report on our website or by using our online Live Chat service which is available 24 hours-a-day, seven days-a-week. Visit www.essex.police.uk/digital101 to find out more about our online reporting services.

“If you would like to make an anonymous report you can contact independent charity Crimestoppers, by visiting their website or by calling 0800 555 111.”

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Gary Neville claims Thomas Tuchel copied ‘wrong Mikel Arteta decision’ for England | Football

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Gary Neville claims Thomas Tuchel copied 'wrong Mikel Arteta decision' for England | Football

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In The Mixer’s World Cup special

Everything you need to know about the World Cup – England updates, the games to watch and stories you missed – in five minutes, at 1pm, every day.

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New Portsmouth nursery calls on families to discover their warm, nurturing space

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New Portsmouth nursery calls on families to discover their warm, nurturing space

Parents and carers in Portsmouth are being invited to discover a newly expanded nursery setting at a Fratton-based Infant school. Little Thinkers nursery at Penbridge Infant School, on Lincoln Road, Fratton, are hosting a special Open Event on Saturday 18th July, from 2pm-4pm. 

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Tear down this wall! Property developer faces council probe after erecting section of the Berlin Wall in his garden without planning permission

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Property developer Steve Thorpe, 65, bought a piece of the Berlin Wall to bring home to the UK

A property developer snapping up part of the Berlin Wall has triggered a new Cold War after a neighbour’s complaint – this time not in Germany’s but in England’s capital.

Steve Thorpe, 65, bought a piece of the historic structure and brought it more than 650 miles back to his home in Dulwich, south-east London.

He installed the 3.1m slab at the back of his garden but a neighbour has since complained to Southwark Council about the piece of concrete that used to separate East and West Germany – saying it lacks planning permission.

And the local authority has now launched an investigation into whether the wall, which can be seen from the front door, can stay. 

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Mr Thorpe tracked the towering wall chunk down after learning a grain farmer had been using hundreds of sections of it to line his sheds.

Along with a friend, Mr Thorpe flew out to Germany to go Berlin Wall shopping and decided to buy a piece of history.

He said: ‘The original piece I wanted, they wouldn’t sell me as it is going to go to an exhibition at Brandenburg Gate.’

Mr Thorpe instead found another piece of graffiti-daubed wall catching his eye and settled on that.

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Property developer Steve Thorpe, 65, bought a piece of the Berlin Wall to bring home to the UK

Mr Thorpe, pictured with his section of the wall, may have to remove it if retrospective planning permission is not granted

Mr Thorpe, pictured with his section of the wall, may have to remove it if retrospective planning permission is not granted

He had the segment transported to his home in Dulwich, south-east London

He had the segment transported to his home in Dulwich, south-east London

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The shopping was the easy task as he then had to transport the heavy wall back to the UK and get it installed in his garden.

He said: ‘It took an awful lot of wrangling to get it here. We had to get export licences and import licences, but we got it.

‘And because it weighs so much, we had to make a dolly to get it down and use lots and lots of machines and winches to get it through the garden.’

After battling the ‘awful’ January weather, the wall was successfully installed at his home.

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But for Mr Thorpe it is far more than a garden decoration, it is a ‘really significant part of history’, adding: ‘It’s probably the biggest thing that’s happened in my lifetime.’

Mr Thorpe feels his connections to the wall stretch back to the Cold War when he visited Germany with the club Clifton Rugby and played against the British Army. 

However, the segment has not gone down well with everybody nearby – with one neighbour having formally complained to Southwark Council that Mr Thorpe needed planning permission to install the wall.

Mr Thorpe told the Daily Mail: ‘Just as we finished putting it up, a neighbour asked “what is that?”.

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The section is now at the centre of a planning dispute involving Southwark Council

The section is now at the centre of a planning dispute involving Southwark Council

Mr Thorpe said of the structure: 'Because it weighs so much, we had to make a dolly to get it down and use lots and lots of machines and winches to get it through the garden'

Mr Thorpe said of the structure: ‘Because it weighs so much, we had to make a dolly to get it down and use lots and lots of machines and winches to get it through the garden’

Mr Thorpe feels his connections to the wall stretch back to the Cold War when he visited Germany with the club Clifton Rugby and played against the British Army

Mr Thorpe feels his connections to the wall stretch back to the Cold War when he visited Germany with the club Clifton Rugby and played against the British Army

The Berlin Wall near the Brandenburg gate which was built in August 1961

The Berlin Wall near the Brandenburg gate which was built in August 1961

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‘I explained that it was a piece of the Berlin Wall and he said, “You needed to ask my permission for that”. I didn’t think I needed to.’

He has now applied for retrospective planning permission through Dulwich Estates in the hopes they will allow for the wall to remain and not be torn down for a second time.

He said: ‘They either give me permission or they don’t and I’m not sure what I’ll do if they don’t.’

‘It would be a crime to demolish it. It would cost an awful lot to move it – it cost a fortune to get it in.’

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Mr Thorpe says children from the south London neighbourhood come over to view the wall and he has even printed a pamphlet with information on the wall.

Steve said: “Most of my neighbours seem to be very supportive of it. The most historically significant event in my life, in our lives, is the fall of the wall. It’s massive.’

A Southwark Council spokesperson said: ‘We have received a planning complaint about a section of wall installed in Dulwich

‘We will investigate the complaint and take any appropriate action in line with the national planning processes.’

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The Berlin Wall – also known as the Iron Curtain – was a 155km (96-mile) barrier built by East Germany in August 1961 to prevent its citizens from fleeing to the West.

It stood until November 1989 when a new travel law was mistakenly announced, which saw crowds rush to the border.

The wall was opened under the onslaught of so many people and ultimately torn down, paving the way for Germany’s reunification the following year.

Mr Thorpe’s neighbour, who is making the complaint, has been approached for comment. 

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NI Water to take action on illegal Co Antrim July bonfire

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Belfast Live

“The substances burned are harmful to the environment and the cost to remove bonfire debris is an unnecessary expense on an already stretched budget.”

Northern Ireland Water is to take action against the culprits behind a Co Antrim illegal bonfire site amid alleged threats and a failure to reach a resolution.

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Village residents and Lisburn and Castlereagh City councillors have previously spoken out against the dumping of material for the Stoneyford bonfire.

Gate pillars at the former Northern Ireland Water reservoir are annually marked in red, white and blue with ‘UVF’ graffiti and a sign directing people to dump material destined for a July bonfire.

READ MORE: Co Down concerns pond pollution linked to bird and wildlife deaths.

READ MORE: Sinn Fein councillor says political ‘silence on sectarian abuse is deafening’.

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NI Water statement reads: “NI Water has gathered and documented evidence relating to the activity at the site and continue to do so. This information will be referred to the appropriate authorities.

“NI Water has been robust in engaging with elected representatives, community groups and other statutory agencies in the area.

“Extensive efforts have confirmed that the individuals responsible for this bonfire neither engage with, nor respond to approaches made by intermediaries.

“Unfortunately, given previous experiences on this site neither NI Water nor other agencies were able to secure the services of a contractor to remove materials from the site.”

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NIW has previously confirmed in a letter, seen by the Local Democracy Reporting Service, that its staff members have been threatened on site when attempting to negotiate with those responsible for the dump collection and bonfire.

The LDRS in 2025 revealed a £60,000 price tag on bonfire clean-ups at the Stoneyford beauty spot over the last five years, following a decision by the Information Commissioner’s Office to force NIW to release the figures.

The cost included a removal and disposal of tyres by a specialist contractor.

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An up to date Freedom of Information request has shown last year’s clean up of bonfire waste on the site cost NIW approximately £2,500.

Video footage seen by the LDRS shows this year’s “1st July Bonfire” being lit with plumes of black smoke coming from the blaze.

NIW added:”Given the absence of any identifiable organisation or recognised point of contact, there is no meaningful route for community engagement or negotiated resolution, and the matter must therefore be addressed through the relevant statutory processes and enforcement mechanisms available.

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“NI Water would like to take this opportunity to remind the public that building bonfires on this site is illegal.

“The substances burned are harmful to the environment and the cost to remove bonfire debris is an unnecessary expense on an already stretched budget.”

The LDRS contacted the PSNI. A spokesperson said:”There have been no reports received in relation to threats at the Stoneyford site.

“PSNI continues to engage with all relevant partners in relation to the Stoneyford bonfire site, including the landowner, residents and statutory agencies where appropriate.

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“The primary responsibility for decisions relating to structures located on privately owned land rests with the landowner.

“Police engagement has focused on supporting multi-agency discussions, maintaining community safety, assessing any risks associated with the site, and ensuring that any policing response remains proportionate.”

For all the latest news, visit the Belfast Live homepage here and sign up to our daily newsletter here.

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‘Severe’ driving bans and fines after UK punishment rules change

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Wales Online

New Sentencing Council guidelines for careless driving in England and Wales mean even a momentary lapse in concentration could now result in a driving ban or a fine of up to 250% of your weekly income

Drivers could encounter a driving ban for even minor mistakes behind the wheel – owing to the rigorous new sentencing guidelines for careless driving in England and Wales.

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They took effect on July 1, 2025, and mean a brief distraction, such as checking a sat nav, failing to indicate or any momentary lapse, could now trigger significant legal consequences and potentially result in losing your driving entitlement. It’s not solely reckless motorists or those operating vehicles under the influence who need to exercise vigilance; the revised regulations specify that even a temporary error by the most careful of drivers might leave them facing harsh penalties. The overhauled “careless driving” rules – formally termed driving without due care and attention – have been considerably strengthened.

Driving prohibitions lasting up to 56 days are being actively proposed for medium-level offences – incidents that historically would have only incurred penalty points may now mean you forfeit your driving entitlement for nearly two months. Furthermore, substantial fines that can reach 250% of your weekly earnings face those committing even isolated offences, threatening to impact finances severely.

While the possible maximum sentence hasn’t increased, there is a heightened focus on aggravating circumstances associated with the offence, such as consequent harm, indicating the probability of more severe punishments being imposed with increased regularity. Professional motorists face even more rigorous assessments.

Those whose employment relies on driving – whether van operators, HGV drivers, taxi or bus drivers – must remain especially alert. The regulations cite “driving for commercial purposes” or in a goods vehicle as elements that render an offence more grave. Put simply, being on duty at the wheel won’t attract any clemency; in fact, courts may deliver harsher penalties.

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Recent revisions to judicial guidance emphasise that intent carries no significance. In essence, if your driving fails to meet the standards of a careful and competent driver – a benchmark readily crossed when distracted – you’re culpable.

Changes implemented by the Sentencing Council aim to address dangerous driving conduct and have reportedly positioned ordinary drivers firmly in the crosshairs, according to a legal specialist.

Speaking when the changes came into effect a year ago, Charlotte Le Maire, a barrister and transport defence authority at CrashLaw24, urged motorists to treat these changes with seriousness.

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She said: “This is a real wake-up call for UK motorists. You don’t have to be intentionally dangerous behind the wheel to end up banned. Under these guidelines, just a momentary lapse in concentration can lead to severe consequences – a court summons, a huge fine, even losing your licence.

“Any driver could be one small mistake away from a ban. Drivers absolutely must take these changes seriously and stay alert at all times – because a moment’s distraction can ruin lives.”

The fresh regulations have scarcely come into force, yet Charlotte anticipates a dramatic rise in prosecutions following the 2022 introduction of Causing Serious Injury by Careless Driving. She forecast numerous motorists will be astonished to discover themselves charged with “careless driving” for mistakes they regarded as trivial.

The possible consequences for such offences now encompass brief disqualifications and substantial fines, rendering the cost of a moment’s lapse more expensive than previously, the legal expert warned. Particularly when a collision happens, she underlined that securing prompt legal advice is “crucial”.

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Charlotte additionally drew attention to a distinctive element of road traffic law: officers can caution and question you at an incident location without legal representation. The account provided in the chaos after a collision could determine the outcome of a criminal prosecution against you, she underscored.

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Freedom Round the Globe review: Did a planet in revolt create modern America?

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Freedom Round the Globe review: Did a planet in revolt create modern America?

Each chapter traces a revolutionary idea to a different corner of the globe. In Connecticut and the Caribbean, for instance, she examines how slavery transformed the meaning of liberty, giving rise to new political language and radical demands for freedom. The book is a litany of revolt, a kind of world tour of grievances, from Edinburgh to Guangzhou to Kolkata, and from St Kitts to Sierra Leone.

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VR knife crime project to reach more pupils in County Durham

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VR knife crime project to reach more pupils in County Durham

The immersive VR sessions place young people at the centre of realistic scenarios involving knives and gangs, helping them understand the dangers and long-term impact of their decisions in a safe environment.

County Durham and Darlington Police and Crime Commissioner Joy Allen said: “Knife crime in Durham remains low compared to other areas of the country but it is still an issue.

“Our young people are exposed to the same influences and risks as their peers, and some are already engaging in risky behaviour that could escalate into violence if left unchecked.

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“It’s vital we intervene early to break the cycle.”

“Through this important work, we will stop serious violence and knife crime from gaining a greater foothold in our communities.”

The programme uses VR headsets and accessories, with a £4,500 contribution from the PCC funding the Virtual Decisions licence and VR accessories including headphones, alongside match funding from Durham Action Against Crime (£2,000), housing provider Livin (£2,000), and The Cornforth Partnership (£2,200).

Additional funding will allow the Newton Aycliffe Rotary Club, which runs the scheme, to expand delivery across more schools and youth groups.

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So far, the project has reached 1,194 students in primary, secondary, and special educational needs schools across the area.

Virtual Decisions, the award-winning VR programme in use, has already reached more than 20,000 young people nationwide.

Evaluation shows that after taking part, 91 per cent said they were more likely to consider the consequences of knife crime, while 96 per cent agreed that carrying a knife is more dangerous than not carrying one.

Ms Allen said the programme builds on awareness sparked by the arrival of the Knife Angel sculpture in the region last year.

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She said: “The visit of the Knife Angel monument last year provided a platform to initiate difficult conversations about knife crime and to show young people what really is at stake by carrying knives to inform their future decisions.

“This project has built on the momentum of this work, allowing young people to immerse themselves in situations that explore the dangers and potential consequences of carrying knives so they can ‘feel’ the emotional impact of their decisions in a safe environment.

“It goes back to prevention – an approach to community safety that lies at the foundations of my plan – and sparing families the pain and devastation of losing people they cherish to violence by changing behaviour before it’s too late.”

Ms Allen has made tackling serious violence a core priority within her Police, Crime and Justice Plan, pledging to address its root causes in partnership with other organisations.

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She has also committed to promoting education as a key protective factor, focusing on improving school attendance and reducing exclusions to help keep young people safe.

Alongside the VR scheme, the PCC and members of the County Durham and Darlington Serious Violence Prevention Partnership have continued to fund other education and intervention programmes.

One such project is delivered by the Foundation of Light, the official charity of Sunderland AFC.

It offers an intensive 12-week intervention for young people aged nine to 15 who are not currently involved in criminal activity but are considered at risk.

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The programme aims to improve educational engagement, decision-making, and awareness of the consequences of serious violence.

It targets individuals through schools, youth groups, and community organisations in the Peterlee area.

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Man ‘narrowly missed numerous collisions’ during high-speed chase

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Cambridgeshire Live

The man ignored red traffic lights and drove at double the speed limit

A man drove at double the speed limit in residential areas and ignored red traffic lights in a bid to escape police. Thomas Toth, 21, led officers on a high-speed pursuit in broad daylight on May 8.

He was driving a black Audi A3 in Star Road, Eastgate, Peterborough at about 10.35am, when officers on patrol received information that the car was uninsured.

When the officers indicated for him to stop, Toth accelerated and drove at more than double the speed limit in residential areas, ignored red traffic lights and drove on the wrong side of keep left bollards.

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The pursuit ended in Ling Garth, Dogsthorpe and Toth ran to try and flee from the officers. He was arrested following a police foot chase.

PC Chris Euerby said: “Toth drove recklessly and clearly with no thought to the danger he was putting other people in. He narrowly missed numerous collisions as other innocent motorists were forced to take evasive action. Thankfully, the pursuit ended and he was arrested before anyone was hurt.”

Toth, of Meadow Grove, Dogsthorpe, Peterborough, admitted dangerous driving, driving without insurance and driving without a licence. He was sentenced to 24 weeks in prison, suspended for a year, and handed an 18-month driving ban on Monday, June 29 at Peterborough Magistrates’ Court.

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Ukraine war sparks fears of an organised crime resurgence in Russia

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Ukraine war sparks fears of an organised crime resurgence in Russia

Following the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, Russia endured a period of violent criminal lawlessness known as the “wild 90s”. Organised crime spiked, with gangs taking control of banks, factories and other lucrative markets. Contract killings, shootings and car bombings became part of urban life.

There are now fears that the Ukraine war will give rise to a similar situation as members of Russia’s army, as well as former convicts who were pardoned in exchange for military service, return from the frontlines.

A variety of conditions enabled organised crime to flourish in the 1990s. Weak state institutions, economic turmoil and mass privatisation following the Soviet Union’s collapse created a governance vacuum in Russia.

As criminologist Federico Varese, of the University of Oxford, explains in his work, criminal groups stepped in to provide “private protection” in areas where the state was ineffective or absent. They provided services such as contract enforcement, debt recovery and physical business security.

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Sociologist Vadim Volkov, meanwhile, describes the rise of “violent entrepreneurs” who commodified coercion in an environment where legal institutions had largely collapsed. Russia’s murder rate surged in this period. Between 1990 and 1994, it more than doubled to a peak of over 33 killings per 100,000 people. This made Russia’s murder rate among the highest globally.

Russian soldiers preparing for military action in Ukraine.
Dmitriy Kandinskiy / Shutterstock

Contemporary Russia presents a different picture. Following Vladimir Putin’s rise to power in 1999, the Russian state has consolidated its authority. Putin quickly expanded the state’s security apparatus while reasserting control over criminal networks.

In many cases, organised crime has become integrated into systems of governance, complementing the state’s political or strategic interests. For example, criminal networks have facilitated sanctions evasion by transporting restricted goods through parallel trade routes and acquiring sanctioned technologies via intermediary networks in third countries.

Reinforcing this transformation

The Ukraine war is likely to reinforce this more recent transformation. Expanded western sanctions imposed since the start of the war have widened opportunities for illicit trade and smuggling networks. But the most significant consequences arise from the social and security challenges associated with large-scale military demobilisation.

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Since the full-scale invasion in 2022, Russia has mobilised hundreds of thousands of military personnel. This includes up to 180,000 former convicts. Many of these people have experienced prolonged exposure to combat. Military service does not inherently lead to criminality and it would be inaccurate to suggest that all returning veterans are likely to become offenders.

However, evidence from post-conflict societies such as Colombia, Sierra Leone, Cambodia and Bosnia-Herzegovina suggests that poorly managed demobilisation can reshape criminal markets. Research on disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration consistently demonstrates that unemployment, psychological trauma and weak institutional support creates opportunities for criminal groups to recruit former combatants.

Military service also teaches soldiers organisational skills beyond battlefield experience such as logistics, intelligence gathering and network management. These skills are all transferable to contemporary organised crime. In modern organised crime environments, traditional racketeering is complemented by cybercrime, cryptocurrency laundering and transnational financial crime.

Even if only a small proportion of military personnel returning from Ukraine become involved in criminal activity, they could change the composition and improve the operational sophistication of Russian crime groups. While the circumstances differ, the case of Colombia illustrates how poorly managed demobilisation can transform organised crime.

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In the 2000s, over 30,000 fighters from right-wing paramilitary groups in Colombia were demobilised. A minority of these former combatants subsequently joined or established criminal organisations. They provided military training, discipline and networks, aiding the capabilities of organised crime.

These groups rapidly became major players in the Colombian organised crime ecosystem. A Human Rights Watch report found they became major perpetrators of drug trafficking, extortion and violence. Estimates suggest they controlled up to half of the Colombia’s cocaine exports by 2011.

The Kremlin building in Moscow, where government decisions are made.
The Russian state is far stronger than the one that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
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The Russian state is far stronger than the one that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union. This makes a wholesale resurgence of traditional criminal violence unlikely. Instead, the Ukraine war looks set to accelerate a new generation of criminal networks that are more professional, militarised and embedded within state structures.

However, the Kremlin still faces a difficult balancing act. Contemporary Russian governance has relied upon managing and exploiting criminal groups. And Moscow appears wary of the broad social instability that would emerge if criminal organisations become sufficiently powerful or autonomous to operate beyond state control.

Russia has thus began preparing plans for the return of veterans from Ukraine. The Kremlin has implemented initiatives such as the “Time of Heroes” programme. This programme channels selected veterans into public administration and political office following their demobilisation. Although limited, such planning reflects official recognition that domestic consequences of war will extend beyond the battlefield.

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Regardless of these efforts, the distinction between organised crime and state power in Russia is likely to become harder to draw than at any point since the end of the cold war.

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