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What is the chance of a message in a bottle being found?

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What is the chance of a message in a bottle being found?

Recently, a cheerful 100-year-old message in a bottle was found on the south-west coast of Australia. In it, a world war one soldier proclaimed to be “as happy as Larry”.

If you’re a betting person, you probably wouldn’t expect great odds of this happening. A bottle cast into the ocean could end up absolutely anywhere.

If it floats to a remote location, there is little chance of somebody stumbling upon it. And if it lands somewhere more favourable where people could potentially find it, there are other issues. The message itself will deteriorate over time as light degrades it. If the bottle fills with water, it will sink and almost certainly never be found.

So, what are the chances of a message in a bottle being found and it being over 100? And what are your chances of finding this bottle?

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Despite these many possibilities during a bottle’s lifetime, the probability we are after is a straightforward calculation. Just count up the number of bottles with messages that have been found and are over 100 years old, and divide by the number of messages that have been sent this way (assuming we know how many are sent):

Probability calculation.

Our diagram below shows a hypothetical situation where 20 bottles are sent in total, of which six are found (indicated in gold) and one of these is over 100 years old (indicated by the “100” stamp). So, one in 20 bottles are found and over 100 years old. (Note: This is only a hypothetical calculation, not the real data.)

Hypothetical bottle data. Bottle image from https://www.flaticon.com/free-icons/bottle.

Instead of calculating the probability directly, another way to do it is by breaking the problem into two parts: (A) a bottle with a message is found, and (B) the found bottle is over 100. These two probabilities can be calculated separately and multiplied together to get what we want:

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Multiplication rule of probability.

This is known as the “multiplication rule” of probability, and we confirm from our hypothetical numbers that (6/20)×(1/6) = 1/20, as before.

Both approaches to calculating this probability are simple. However, the direct calculation requires knowing the total number of bottles sent out, which is very difficult to know in the real world.

The multiplication rule has the advantage that it breaks the calculation into two parts. We can tackle each separately, then bring the two results together to get the probability we want. This is useful in the real-world situation where we can draw information from different sources.

First, we’ll deal with the probability that a bottle with a message is found, irrespective of its age.

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Experts from the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency of Germany suggest a one in ten chance that a message in a bottle will be found. This aligns broadly with various historical “drift bottle” experiments, where oceanographers released large numbers of bottles to understand ocean currents.

For example, studies from the 1960s and ’70s in the North Atlantic Ocean led to recovery rates of 14% from the Gulf of Mexico, 8% from the Caribbean Sea and 7% from the northern Brazilian coast. A more recent and more northerly study (between Canada and Greenland) from the 2000s led to a 5% recovery rate.

We would expect the results to vary naturally from different experiments in different parts of the world. But to keep things simple, we will stick with 1/10 as the probability that a bottle with a message is found.

Now for the second piece of the calculation: of the bottles that are found, what proportion are over 100 years old?

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The table below summarises data from news articles collected on Wikipedia about very old bottles with messages that have been found. However, only data on bottles over 25 years old has been collected, presumably because older bottles are more newsworthy.

Data on the age distribution of bottles found, where the asterisk * indicates an estimated number.

So, we needed to estimate the number of 0- to 25-year-old bottles with messages ourselves – here’s how we did this.

The table shows that fewer bottles with messages are found as they get older. Messages in bottles degrade over time, which means the bottles have an increased chance of breaking and sinking, or just getting covered in layers of sediment. Plotting this data in the graph below helped us see the trend in the ages of found bottles more clearly.

Trend in the ages of bottles found.

We drew a line to match this observed trend in the ages of found bottles. This red line in the graph corresponds to the equation:

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This equation provides an estimate of how many bottles have been found for any specific age range (where 25 = 0-to-25, 50 = 25-to-50 and so on). We are interested in the the 0- to 25-year-old bottles, so the equation suggests 46 bottles have been found in this range.

Adding up this and all of the numbers in the table gives a total of 106 bottles found, of which 12 are over 100 years old, and 12/106 is about one in ten.

Recapping the above, we have that: (A) one in ten bottles with messages are found, of which (B) one in ten are over 100 years old. Bringing these results together using the multiplication rule, we estimate the chance of a message in a bottle being found and it being over 100 years old to be (1/10)×(1/10) = 1/100.

So, if there are 100,000 bottles with messages floating around the oceans waiting to be found, we’d expect 1,000 of these to be found and be 100 or more years old. Assuming anybody in the world is equally likely to find one of these, with 8 billion people currently, that’s about a one in 8 million chance of you finding one – pretty unlikely.

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However, some people are more persistent at message-in-a-bottle hunting than others. Following the paths of ocean currents (known as gyres) could provide clues on where to look.

Specifically, peninsulas or islands intersecting with these gyres could be good spots. For this reason, it has been suggested the Caribbean islands are ideally placed for finding bottles as they lie on the path of the North Atlantic Gyre. Which seems like a great reason to travel to the Carribean!

But let’s also spare a thought for the poor soul stranded on their desert island, who surely won’t appreciate the low odds of their SOS being found.

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Grieving daughter says mum murdered in France ‘made life feel better’

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Daily Record

Dawn Kerr, 56, was found dead at a property in Les Pequies on February 6 last year, with her husband’s body also found.

A grieving daughter has said she hopes to help create “a society free of domestic abuse” after her mum was murdered in France.

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Dawn Kerr, 56, was found dead at a property in Les Pequies on February 6 last year, with her husband’s body also found. French authorities ruled there was no evidence to suggest another person was involved in their deaths.

The prosecutor in charge of the case ruled the investigation as a murder suicide. The couple married in 2023 after moving to France, and had been described as “normal, lovely people” by their neighbours.

Her daughter Amanda has now paid tribute to her mum, branding her “one of those rare people who made life better and brighter just by being it”. She will now hike Mount Etna in Sicily on May 16 as she raises funds for Edinburgh Women’s Aid.

Amanda, who is from Musselburgh, told Edinburgh Live: “My mum was one of those rare people who made life feel better and brighter just by being in it. She was kind, optimistic, and deeply caring and also the most organised person anyone had ever met. She somehow managed to hold everything together while giving so much of herself to others, because she loved doing that.

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“As a mum, she set the standard for everything I hope to be, for my own daughter. As a friend, she had a way of making people feel like they were the only person in the room.

“She gave so much to the world around her. She fundraised constantly and did all of that while working two jobs and raising a family. People used to ask her if she had more hours in the day than everyone else.

“I honestly do not think it is possible to recreate the kind of person my mum was. She was rare, and I feel so proud and lucky to call her my mum and best friend. It’s an honour to me when people say I remind them of my mum.”

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Amanda – who runs marketing firm The Popular Agency – feels she is very much ‘her mother’s daughter’, with Dawn’s qualities and ‘being’ passed down and she will now be doing the climb on her mum’s 58th birthday. She said: “Everything I am doing now is rooted in what she showed me was possible. I always find myself asking ‘what would Dawn do’.

“It never mattered where you saw my mum, she was always happy to chat, she always had time for people and was always, always smiling and laughing. I’m excited for this climb, I’ve been training for 10 months and documenting it all on social media to raise awareness of the fundraiser, which I have raised just over £7,500 on two donation platforms.

“There is still so much snow on Mount Etna so the hike might be more difficult than I had originally thought, but I’m up for the challenge.”

Last year, Amanda and her brother Callum – who has appeared in Channel 4 soap Hollyoaks and One Piece on Netflix – urged people not to attend the funeral of Andrew Seale. In a statement shared online, the pair said: “In the absence of any evidence suggesting third-party involvement in the tragic death of our mother, Dawn Kerr, the prevailing hypothesis remains that of a murder-suicide. Our mother was killed by multiple blows to the head, and Andrew was found deceased by hanging.

“His injuries are consistent with self-hanging, and no defensive wounds were found on his body. There is also no evidence whatsoever of any third party’s involvement at this stage. While the official investigation is still ongoing, we cannot ignore the circumstances as they stand.

“For this reason, we must respectfully but firmly request that our mother not be included in any way in the funeral arrangements being made for Andrew. Please do not share photographs of them together.”

You can support Amanda with her fundraiser here.

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BBC to cut 2,000 jobs in major restructure

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BBC to cut 2,000 jobs in major restructure

The BBC is set to cut 2,000 jobs as part of a drive to reduce costs by 10 per cent over the next three years, sources have revealed.

It is understood staff were informed of the significant redundancies during an all-staff call held on Wednesday afternoon.

These cuts mark the largest reduction in BBC headcount in almost 15 years and coincide with former Google executive Matt Brittin preparing to take over as director-general next month.

The corporation has also recently unveiled plans to drastically downsize the team responsible for covering national occasions, such as royal events and State funerals, to a single staff member supported by freelancers.

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The BBC has previously said: “Over the last three years we have delivered more than a half a billion pounds worth of savings, much of which we’ve been able to reinvest into our output across the BBC.

“In a rapidly changing media market, we continue to face substantial financial pressures. As a result we expect to make further savings over the next three years of around 10% of our costs.

“This is about the BBC becoming more productive and prioritising our offer to audiences to ensure we’re providing the best value for money, both now and in the future.”

More to follow…

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Police officers charged after pregnant woman and unborn baby die in London crash

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Daily Record

Two Metropolitan Police officers face charges following collision in south-east London that resulted in deaths of 38-year-old woman and her unborn child

Two police officers have been charged in connection with the deaths of a heavily pregnant woman and her unborn baby after she was struck by a police vehicle in London.

The 38 year old woman lost her life after her car collided with an unmarked police vehicle on Eltham Road on October 17, 2024, and her unborn child could not be saved. The baby tragically died at the scene, while the woman subsequently passed away in hospital from her injuries, reports the Mirror.

PC Chris Johnson, 56, has been charged with causing death by dangerous driving, and former PC Danny Tomkins, 35, has been charged with dangerous driving. The charges follow an investigation into the fatal collision carried out by the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC).

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PC Johnson is attached to the Metropolitan Police Taskforce, while former PC Tomkins was assigned to the same unit at the time of the tragedy. Both officers are due to appear before Westminster Magistrates’ Court on Thursday, May 28.

Acting Detective Chief Superintendent James Derham, who oversees policing in Greenwich, said: “Our thoughts remain with the woman’s family and friends, who continue to grieve the loss of her and her unborn child. This was a truly terrible and heartbreaking incident.”

“The IOPC have conducted a thorough and complex investigation and we have worked closely with them as their enquiries have progressed. Following that process, an officer and former officer have now been charged.

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“It is important that nothing is said that could prejudice the court proceedings that will now follow, so it would be inappropriate to comment further at this stage.”

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Trump threatens to fire Powell if the Fed Chair remains with central bank after his term ends

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Trump threatens to fire Powell if the Fed Chair remains with central bank after his term ends

Federal prosecutors made an unannounced visit this week to a construction site at Federal Reserve headquarters that is the focus of an investigation into a $2.5 billion renovation project, according to two people familiar with the visit.

Two prosecutors and an investigator from U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro’s office were turned away on Tuesday by a building contractor and referred to Fed attorneys, one of the people said. The two people familiar with the visit spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to publicly discuss an ongoing investigation.

Last month, during a closed-door hearing before a federal judge, a top deputy from Pirro’s office conceded that they hadn’t found any evidence of a crime in their investigation of the headquarters project.

The investigation has faced bipartisan opposition in Congress. It also has delayed Senate consideration of Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s pick to replace Fed chairman Jerome Powell when his term ends May 15.

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THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP’s earlier story follows below.

Federal prosecutors made an unannounced visit this week to a construction site at Federal Reserve headquarters that is the focus of an investigation into a $2.5 billion renovation project, according to two people familiar with the visit.

Two prosecutors and an investigator from U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro’s office were turned away on Tuesday by a building contractor and referred to Fed attorneys, one of the people said. The two people familiar with the visit spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to publicly discuss an ongoing investigation.

Last month, during a closed-door hearing before a federal judge, a top deputy from Pirro’s office conceded that they hadn’t found any evidence of a crime in their investigation of the headquarters project.

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President Donald Trump has again threatened to fire Jerome Powell if the Federal Reserve Chair decides to stay on the central bank’s governing board after his term as chair expires next month.

“Well then I’ll have to fire him, OK?” Trump told Fox Business in an interview that aired Wednesday when reminded that Powell has said he won’t leave the Fed while the Justice Department investigates a $2.5 billion renovation project at the bank.

Trump has for months wanted to remove Powell as chair of the Fed, saying he has been too slow in orchestrating interest rate cuts that would give the U.S. economy a quick boost. Powell has said the investigation is a pretext to undermine the Fed’s independence to set rates. A federal prosecutor last month admitted that the investigation into the renovations had turned up no evidence of a crime.

Powell’s term as Fed governor expires May 15, but his term as a Fed board member lasts until January 2028.

Trump has nominated former Fed official Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell. Yet Warsh’s confirmation has been delayed. Sen. Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican, has said he won’t vote to confirm any Fed nominees until the investigation is dropped.

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Snapchat to lay off 16% of its workforce as it struggles financially

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Snapchat to lay off 16% of its workforce as it struggles financially

Snap Inc., the company that owns the social media platform Snapchat, is laying off about 16 percent of its full-time workforce.

The move will impact about 1,000 employees, CEO Evan Spiegel announced Wednesday. The company is also closing about 300 open roles.

“This is an incredibly difficult decision, and I am deeply sorry to the colleagues who will be leaving us. You have made important contributions to Snap, and we are committed to supporting you through this transition,” Spiegel said in a message to staff.

Spiegel said the company had to make “tough choices to prioritize the investments we believe are most likely to create long-term value.”

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Snap Inc., the company that owns the social media platform Snapchat, is cutting 16 percent of its full-time workforce
Snap Inc., the company that owns the social media platform Snapchat, is cutting 16 percent of its full-time workforce (Getty Images)

“As a result of these changes, we expect to reduce our annualized cost base by more than $500 million by the second half of 2026, helping to establish a clearer path to net-income profitability,” he said.

Snap has struggled with profitability and is facing mounting pressure from investors, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Impacted employees who are based in the U.S. will receive “four months of severance, healthcare coverage, and equity vesting, along with career transition support,” according to Spiegel’s statement. For those outside the country, the company will “follow local processes and seek to provide comparable support aligned with local norms.”

“Today we announced organizational changes to better align our resources behind our highest priorities as we continue our pivot toward profitable growth,” a Snap spokesperson told The Independent. “These decisions are incredibly difficult, and we are committed to supporting our colleagues who are leaving Snap through this transition.”

Snap also underwent a round of layoffs in 2024, cutting more than 500 jobs. Two years prior, the company had cut 20 percent of its workforce.

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Snapchat, a popular social media platform known for its disappearing photos and videos, has more than 946 million monthly active users, its parent company said in February. The platform also offers a paid subscription service, which surpassed 25 million members earlier this year.

This is a breaking news story. Check back for updates.

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Martin Lewis reacts as ‘aggressive’ council tax rules end

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Martin Lewis reacts as ‘aggressive’ council tax rules end

The government has confirmed plans to end “aggressive” debt collection tactics, giving people far longer to catch up on missed payments and capping extra charges.

Under current rules, councils can demand the full year’s council tax just weeks after a single missed payment, often leading to court action and extra fees.

But new proposals will:

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  • Give households 63 days (around two months) to catch up
  • Cap admin and enforcement fees at £100
  • Allow bills to be spread over 12 months instead of 10

The changes aim to ease pressure on families already dealing with rising living costs.

‘Most vicious’ debt collection system

Reacting to the changes, Martin Lewis did not hold back.

He said: “Council tax debt collection is so aggressive it’d make banks blush.

“It’s the most vicious and damaging form of legal debt collection out there – causing counterproductive misery for millions.”

He added that after campaigning on the issue for 18 months, the reform is a major step forward.

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“I’m genuinely moved by this huge first step towards making things better,” he said.

Why households were struggling with council tax rules

Under the old system, missing just one payment could quickly spiral:

Full annual bill demanded within weeks

  • Extra charges added
  • Risk of court action or bailiffs

Campaigners have long argued this approach made debts worse rather than helping people repay them.

Steve Reed said the changes are designed to stop families being pushed into crisis.

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“Too many families are facing aggressive enforcement action, with people left terrified of bailiffs knocking on the door because one month’s council tax bill was missed,” he said.

“We will stop this and make the system fairer.”


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The reforms mark the biggest change to council tax collection in decades, potentially helping millions avoid spiralling debt.

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While Martin Lewis said there is still room for improvement, he made clear this is a significant breakthrough.

“In a perfect world, it would be even longer,” he said, “but this is still a hugely welcome change.”

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Met Office weather maps show parts of UK that will reach 18C this week

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Manchester Evening News

The Met Office said temperatures could reach ‘close to’ 20C

Parts of the UK could reach temperatures as high as 18C in the coming days, as the country faces a mixed week of weather.

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It comes after the UK saw record-breaking temperatures earlier this month, with highs of 26.5C being recorded in Kew Gardens, south west London, on April 8. This made it the hottest day in the first half of April since 1946, the Met Office confirmed.

Despite the week getting off to a chilly start, the Met Office said that it will steadily turn warmer through the next few days, both by day and by night. But as the air warms it will also become more prone to rising and producing showers, so the week will remain mixed rather than settled, the UK weather agency confirmed.

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The Met Office forecast: “A familiar split is likely at times: western areas more frequently exposed to incoming fronts from the Atlantic, while parts of the east see longer drier and brighter spells.

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“Looking through the week as a whole, the wettest conditions are favoured in western hills, particularly across Wales, north‑west England and western Scotland, as well as Northern Ireland. In contrast, parts of eastern England may see relatively little rainfall overall.”

Wednesday is expected to be ‘notably windier’, the Met Office warned, with some ‘blustery, cloudy and milder’ conditions. Bands of rain are set to move over the UK, with ‘brisk winds’.

But in the warmer air, temperatures could climb into the high teens across parts of eastern England. High teens are also possible along the Moray coast, where winds coming over the hills may give a noticeable lift to temperatures, the Met Office said.

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Winds are then expected to ease over Wednesday night and into Thursday, with a ‘sunny and showery’ day for large parts of the country.

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The Met Office said: “Temperatures may dip a little compared with Wednesday, but it should still feel mild for mid‑April, and any sunshine will add a real warmth as the strength of the spring sun increases day by day.”

Friday will see another low-pressure system, bringing rain from the west. There is also a chance of thunderstorms developing, the Met Office warned.

But despite the unsettles conditions, the Met Office said that highs could again reach the high teens, ‘perhaps even close to 20C’ in parts of the country.

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Met Office weather maps show temperatures reaching as high as 18C on Friday afternoon in London and its surrounding areas.

Looking at the Met Office’s long range forecast for the UK, which covers the period between April 20 and 29, the country is expected to see widely dry conditions at the end of the month.

The forecast reads: “High pressure to the north or northeast of the UK will bring plenty of dry weather and sunny spells for most at first.

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“Low pressure in the Atlantic will try to push weather fronts towards the UK from the south west, but these may remain slow moving. Some parts of the east coast could be on the chilly side with low cloud and onshore breeze, but further west it will likely feel quite warm, especially in sunnier areas.

“From next weekend and into the start of the following week, there are signs that more unsettled weather could return for a time, bringing rain or showers to some areas.”

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Drought could be making antibiotic resistance worse, scientists say

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Drought could be making antibiotic resistance worse, scientists say

Antibiotic resistance is often associated with hospitals and the overuse of antibiotics in agriculture. Both are genuine problems, but new research suggests another potential culprit that many people haven’t considered – droughts caused by climate change.

A recent study published in the journal Nature Microbiology found that when soil dries out, it can speed up the natural processes that create and spread antibiotic resistance. This doesn’t mean drought directly creates superbugs in hospitals, but it suggests climate change could make the problem worse.

This matters a lot for the UK. The Met Office predicts that summers will get hotter and drier, with longer droughts if emissions stay high. Meanwhile, the NHS is already struggling with antibiotic-resistant infections, which are harder to treat and keep patients in hospital longer. When standard antibiotics stop working, doctors are sometimes forced to use powerful alternatives that are kept in reserve precisely because overusing them risks making those resistant too. These are known as “drugs of last resort”.

So what’s actually happening in the soil? Soil is teeming with bacteria, and many of them naturally produce antibiotics to kill off rivals. Other bacteria carry genes that make them resistant to those attacks.

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An arms race in the soil

In normal, moist soil, bacteria live in a relatively stable environment. But when soil dries out, water gets squeezed into tiny, isolated pockets. Bacteria get crowded together, nutrients become scarce and competition turns brutal. In these conditions, bacteria produce more antibiotics to attack each other, and more resistance genes emerge to help them survive. It’s an arms race fuelled by drought.

Here’s why that’s relevant to human health: bacteria can swap genes with each other through a process called horizontal gene transfer – think of it like sharing a video game cheat code. This means resistance genes from soil bacteria can be picked up by bacteria that infect humans. In fact, some resistance genes found in soil bacteria have already been spotted in bacteria that infect people, hinting at a long evolutionary connection between the two.

Horizontal gene transfer explained.

Some large studies have found that drier regions of the world tend to report higher levels of antibiotic-resistant infections in hospitals, even when taking differences in wealth and healthcare quality into account. However, these studies show correlation, not direct cause and effect. Other factors like how infections are tracked or how easy it is to access healthcare could also explain this pattern.

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Some of the soil bacteria linked to this problem are close relatives of hospital pathogens like Klebsiella pneumoniae and Pseudomonas aeruginosa, which belong to a group called Eskape, responsible for many of the world’s hardest-to-treat infections. Again, this doesn’t mean these bugs come from soil, but it does show how connected environmental and clinical bacteria really are.

Antibiotic resistance already causes millions of infections every year worldwide. Most efforts to tackle it have focused on cutting unnecessary antibiotic use in medicine and farming, which is still vital. But this research suggests the environment itself, and how climate change is reshaping it, also plays a role we can’t afford to ignore.

This is where the idea of One Health comes in. One Health is the idea that human, animal and environmental health are all closely linked. Antibiotic resistance, seen through this lens, isn’t just a medical problem, it’s an ecological one too.

As droughts become more common in the UK and around the world, scientists will need to keep a much closer eye on what’s happening beneath our feet.

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York Christmas Market- rest day plan on hold amid concerns

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York Christmas Market- rest day plan on hold amid concerns

York Council’s Executive voted to defer a decision on closing the market on Tuesdays following new counter-terrorism advice from North Yorkshire Police.

Cllr Pete Kilbane, the council’s Labour deputy leader, said the proposals would be reconsidered before the executive’s next scheduled meeting in a month’s time to help businesses plan accordingly.

Market traders and businesses near its pitches in Parliament street told councillors they feared the effect closing the market for a day would have on their earnings and staff.

The decision at the meeting on Tuesday, April 13 comes after plans for the rest day were drawn up to ease the impact of the event on Blue Badge holders.

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Blue Badge holders were among those banned from driving into York city centre during the market’s opening hours in line with traffic restrictions imposed during the event.

The council approved North Yorkshire Police’s request for an Anti-Terror Traffic Regulation Order (ATTRO) barring vehicles from pedestrianised streets to deter potential attacks which have targeted mass gatherings elsewhere.

The restrictions have since been made permanent and would be activated during future markets and other events on a case-by-case basis in consultation with the council and other emergency services.

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Disabled people said last year the measures would restrict their access to the city centre in the run up to Christmas.

Plans for a rest day on Tuesday are among the measures the council has proposed to ease the impact of restrictions during future markets.

A council report stated opening the market one day less a week would improve accessibility in the city centre.

It added Tuesday was chosen as the rest day because it was one of the quietest in terms of footfall but was not as closely linked to weekend visits as Mondays or Thursdays.

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A rest day would be trialled during this year’s market and the impact would be analysed early next year.

Christmas Market traders have voiced fears about plans to close future events one day a week (Image: Newsquest)

York’s Business Improvement District (BID), Hospitality Association (HAY), hotels and others lodged concerns with the council over the proposals ahead of Tuesday’s decision.

Traders speaking at Tuesday’s meeting said closing the market could see them lose up to 10 per cent of their revenues.

Simon Long, of Shambles Kitchen, said earnings from the market paid the wages of his 30 permanent staff in January.

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The trader said: “I can’t afford to lose any days because of the January payroll.

“What would happen to the price of rent for pitches and would we be expected to make up the losses?

“We’re already facing significant price pressures at the moment, a 10 per cent drop in sales from losing Tuesdays would heighten the pressure massively.”

Louise Harris-Collins, who also trades at the market, said she could have to employ up to 11 fewer people if the plans go ahead.

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She said: “Our margins have become thinner, the prospect of losing a day is truly terrifying.

“The market’s a huge asset to the city, people love it and we need more people to get behind it, not strangle it.”

Speaking following the meeting, disability right activist Flick Williams said she never thought the rest day would happen after saying it was better than nothing.

The executive heard the new police advice was a different interpretation of that previously given and related to additional liabilities and risks.

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Council Deputy Leader Cllr Kilbane said traders’ views would be taken into account ahead of the decision on the rest day.

The deputy leader said: “The time scales are against us, businesses need to know what’s happening.”

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From ‘market value’ to levelling up, the manosphere is shaped by a financial mindset

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From ‘market value’ to levelling up, the manosphere is shaped by a financial mindset

Louis Theroux’s recent Netflix documentary Inside the Manosphere shines a spotlight on masculinity influencers and the dangers of online misogyny, conspiracy theories and anti-feminist ideologies. Responses to the documentary have ranged from outrage to disbelief, criticising how the manfluencers treat the women in their lives and discussing the importance of role models in countering manosphere influences.

But what has been less talked about is how it reveals the relentless pursuit of financial gain driving these “manfluencers” and the language they use to normalise their views.

Amid a cost of living crisis and a declining job market, Theroux shows why “manfluencers” resonate so strongly with their target audience of boys and young men. Theroux meets four key figures in the manosphere, all of whom sell a carefully curated lifestyle based on conspicuous consumption, hypersexuality and an “alpha masculinity” mindset to their millions of followers.

Although this may seem like a tempting lifestyle to some, the main effect is to reinforce a sense of inadequacy and failure among their audiences. Do this enough times, then you can sell the solution to become a “real man”.

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How boys get sucked into the manosphere


In Theroux’s documentary, two fans of a manosphere influencer suggest that “life as a man, you’re born without value. We have to build that value. You have to work for every penny”.

The language used in the manosphere is the language of financial markets, with discussion of optimisation, levelling up and marginal gains. Phrases like “sexual market value”, “high/low value man” and “maxxing” convert intimacy into a market and the body into an asset class. Manosphere guidance encourages young men to inspect themselves from the outside, as if conducting a performance review. Men’s bodies are seen as measurable assets and an index of “masculinity”.




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The pseudoscientific attractiveness scale that grew out of incel forums and is now making money for looksmaxxing influencers

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Glow-ups, routines, hacks, looksmaxxing, courses, tips and videos on “ways to increase your value” are deployed as strategies to help fans unlock the secret of being a “real man”. In these spaces, the broader system that turns masculinity and relationships into metrics is never the problem. Instead, men are told that failure lies in their inability to increase their own “market value”. These discourses of “self-improvement” are, in reality, damaging forms of self-surveillance.

Manosphere adherents end up caught in a loop of aspiration and self-loathing: improve, compare, fail, repeat. In this context, the language of “levelling up” becomes especially insidious. Although it sounds playful and empowering, this mindset traps fans in a permanently unwinnable game. There is always another goal to strive for, another skill to master, another level to unlock.

‘Manosphere’ influencers place high value on physical fitness and attractiveness in both men and women.
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The dating market

The consequences of this mindset for both men and women is most evident in the language around dating and the idea of the “sexual market”. Attraction is viewed as quantifiable (“high/low value”), competitive (“winners/losers”) and impersonal (“it’s just sex”). Women and men are both consumers and products competing for scarce demand. Rejection is “market feedback”.

These metaphors reduce a deeply social and emotional sphere of life down to a superficial economic reality. By treating people and relationships as metrics, it becomes easier to view them only in instrumental terms. Framing relationships as one-dimensional, transactional and based on hierarchy has negative effects for both men and women.

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In Inside the Manosphere, one influencer reveals that he filmed a woman performing a sex act on him for “clout”. Theroux shows a clip from one influencer’s social media arguing that women are “subordinate” to men and should always make themselves sexually available. In one of the most discussed scenes from the documentary, one man advocates for “one-sided monogamy”, where he sleeps with other women while his wife stays at home as the main caregiver.

This man reduces women to an “attractiveness score”, saying that if a man isn’t tall but is physically fit, muscular and makes money, “Maybe [he doesn’t] come to Miami and pull Miami 10s, but I’ll be damned if [he] can’t pull a couple of 8s or 9s in a small town in America”.

Some of this corporate language is used to make misogynistic ideas sound neutral, data-driven and common sense. While recording a podcast, one man uses his “female delusion calculator” to draw attention to the unrealistic expectations a female guest has of a prospective partner. Although presented as a mathematical model based on demographic data, its primary function is to highlight what he claims is the “irrational” nature of women in the contemporary dating scene, and conclude that women “overinflate [their] own sense of self-worth”.

By framing this commentary as a form of objective analysis, it makes hierarchy seem an everyday and commonplace part of life and hides its misogynistic underpinnings.

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Influencers in the manosphere often pronounce that they are seeking to elevate the position of men through the language of empowerment. The self-improvement narratives are compelling, but they don’t stand up against the evidence that these men are very much in it for themselves.

The documentary highlights how the manfluencers’ central goal is ultimately self-enrichment, often at the expense of their followers. Theroux “invests” £500 into an interviewee’s trading platform, only to see it whittled away over the course of a few weeks, with the influencer taking his cut. Fans of one influencer pay to have their comments read out live on air. Another influencer courts conspiracy theories to create viral content, describing those in the manosphere as “trying to make a buck” by selling ideologies.

There is a sense that compromising the social contract doesn’t matter, so long as you have a Rolex on your wrist, a Lamborghini to drive and a fancy apartment to hide away in. The ideologies promoted by the manfluencers in the documentary are rooted in misogyny, sexism, violence and exploitation – and there is clearly a market ready and willing to buy them.

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