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Are Supermarkets ‘Taking The Mickey’ With Olive Oil Prices?

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Are Supermarkets 'Taking The Mickey' With Olive Oil Prices?

In 2024, Miguel Guzmán, the chief sales officer of Deoleo (a huge olive oil producer which owns brands like Bertolli), said prices were expected to drop by as much as half in early 2025.

That’s because growing conditions had improved in Spain. “The market is expected to begin to stabilise, and normality is expected to be gradually restored as the new harvest progresses and supply increases,” he said at the time.

But over a year on, Filippo Berio director Walter Zanre has said that supermarkets are “taking the mickey” with the prices they expect customers to pay for the product, despite lower wholesale costs.

“We brought prices down twice last year and it’s not all been passed on to the consumer, which is a huge frustration,” he told Sky News.

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He added, “The supermarket was surprised at how resilient the shopper was at high prices, so the view is they don’t need to give it all away for nothing”.

In other words, he suggested high prices made them realise just how much more UK shoppers would spend on the product, and they aren’t willing to give that up just because their costs are lower.

We asked the UK Food Council, who said they’d noticed “an upward trend in all food costs” to weigh in on the topic, which they’re “watching closely”.

Why are olive oil prices so high?

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“The prediction that prices would halve in 2024 was based on a reasonable expectation,” a UK Food Council spokesperson told us.

“Spain’s harvest was forecast to rebound significantly, and wholesale costs did indeed begin to fall. The problem is that retail prices tend to follow wholesale costs on the way up much faster than they do on the way down.”

To some extent, they added, that can be a reasonable buffer against future risk. In 2022 and 2023, growing conditions in Spain (the biggest producer of olive oil in the world) were so poor that the country only exported half its usual output.

“Supermarkets are understandably cautious – they lock in contracts in advance and factor in hedging costs,” the spokesperson said.

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Nonetheless, “the scale of the gap between what brands like Filippo Berio are now charging and what’s sitting on shelf does raise real questions”.

Zanre said that he expected olive oil sales to “fall off a cliff” when they reached their recent price highs. But he added that UK sales only dropped by 20% or so.

“To put it in context: a 500ml bottle of Filippo Berio extra virgin olive oil retailed at around £3.75 in 2022, peaked at roughly £10.50 at the start of 2025, and has since come down to around £7.50 as wholesale prices eased,” the UK Food Council member said.

“That’s still double what it was three years ago, even as the underlying commodity cost has fallen sharply. ONS data from late 2025 showed retail olive oil prices down about 16% year-on-year – meaningful progress, but arguably not proportionate to how far wholesale costs have dropped.”

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This is “suggestive”, said the UK Food Council

“Are supermarkets taking advantage of consumers who’ve adjusted to higher prices? It’s difficult to prove intent, but the economics are suggestive. Once shoppers have normalised paying £9 or £10 for a bottle, there’s less commercial pressure to drop back towards £5,” the spokesperson stated.

“That said, increased competition – particularly from Greek and Portuguese oils gaining shelf space – may do more to force prices down than any public pressure campaign.”

Speaking to The Independent, Andrew Opie, director of food and sustainability at the British Retail Consortium, said that supermarkets are doing their best to pass savings on to customers and “operate on very tight margins, reflecting a market driven by savvy customers.

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“Olive oil, like many everyday products, is something shoppers can compare across brands and retailers to take advantage of promotions or switch to alternatives that suit their budget”.

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Wings Over Scotland | Pick Your Poison

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At the end of last year we noted the unusual and persistent levels of divergence in Scottish political polling. As polls have become much more frequent during the election campaign, nothing about that has changed. The final polls, published yesterday, are so far apart from each other that they tell us basically zip.

Analysing this mess is meaningless, so we’ll just give you some highlights.

On the constituency vote the SNP are in either the low 30s or the low 40s, either 12 points ahead of Labour, 20 points ahead of Labour, or 24 points ahead of Reform.

On the list they’re either 1 ahead of Reform, 8 ahead of them, or 13 ahead of Labour.

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The Greens are either in 3rd, 4th or 6th place on the list, where they’re either 1, 2 or a whopping 12 points behind Reform. The Lib Dems are either 6th with 8%, or 4th with 12% (which is a non-trivial 50% more, arithmetic lovers). Reform have either more than twice as much support as the Tories (22-10), or just four points more (17-13).

That 10% would likely get the Tories one list seat per region, whereas the 13% might well get them twice as many. Similar applies to the Lib Dems, whose low of 8% definitely wouldn’t get them more than one seat per region, but whose high of 12% could – with luck and a following wind – just about double that.

The Greens’ lowest list score (10%) would garner one seat per region, but their highest (17%) would all but guarantee two per region and could conceivably get them as many as three per region. The same applies to Labour, whose lowest is 12% and highest is 19%, but who have a better chance of winning constituency seats.

(The number of Green list seats is quite likely to determine whether there’s a pro-indy majority or not, so a couple of percentage points either way could be crucial in terms of the ultimate shape of the government, though it’ll make sod-all difference in terms of independence. The SNP-Labour coalition might yet happen.)

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And of course, it depends on whose voters, if anyone’s, are most motivated to turn out, and how many of the 20% who still say they’re undecided make their minds up, and whether it rains or not, and the price of cheese and whether Venus is rising in Uranus. Frankly, our dears, we haven’t got a scooby.

So we’re having the day off, and we’ll see you tomorrow for the results. Your guess, at this stage, is as good as ours.

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‘Our Keir is going nowhere’

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‘Our Keir is going nowhere’

The post ‘Our Keir is going nowhere’ appeared first on spiked.

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Pro-Palestine sectarians are poisoning democracy

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Pro-Palestine sectarians are poisoning democracy

On Thursday, England goes to the polls for the local elections. In theory, this is the most prosaic form of democracy we have. A chance to vote on the administration of bin collections, pothole fixing, planning applications and council taxes.

Councils are not meant to function as a stage for sectarian grievance or foreign-policy cosplay. Yet, across a growing number of English councils, that is what local politics is becoming. Over the past month, I have spent many hours analysing candidates whose political pitch revolves not around their ward, but around Gaza and the politics of the wider Muslim world.

Some of these ‘pro-Palestine’ candidates should be nowhere near public office. Amu Gib, who is standing as an independent in Islington, was allegedly part of the ton last year, in which Palestine Action activists are alleged to have caused £7million damage. Shahid Butt, standing as an independent candidate in Birmingham, was convicted in Yemen in 1999 over a plot to bomb the British consulate, an Anglican church and a hotel. An independent in Bradford, Sharat Hussain, has described Jews as ‘dirty paedo foreskin-eating pigs’.

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It is hardly unreasonable to ask what this says about the calibre of people now being drawn into politics by their loathing of Israel. Local-election campaigns are becoming a vehicle for imported rage and council chambers are imagined not as a place to govern a borough, but as a place to perform allegiance to a foreign cause.

My recent report for the Henry Jackson Society sought to measure this phenomenon rather than merely gawp at it. It used ‘Muslim sectarian’ not as a label for Muslim candidates, but as an operational category for candidates whose public political appeal is repeatedly structured around Muslim communal grievance, Muslim representation or transnational Muslim causes.

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On that definition, 66 out of 1,902 wards in the 2024 English local elections elected at least one Muslim sectarian candidate. The strongest predictors of a ward electing at least one Muslim sectarian candidate are higher voter turnout, a larger proportion of voters under 30, and a larger proportion of Muslims.

A one-point increase in voter turnout within a ward is associated with a 14 per cent increase in the chance of electing at least one Muslim sectarian candidate. A one-point increase in the under-30 share is associated with an 11 per cent higher chance, and a one-point jump in the ward’s Muslim proportion is associated with a seven per cent higher chance. These are not causal claims. They do not mean Muslim voters or young voters are inherently sectarian. They mean that where the numbers, demographics and mobilisation structures are in place, this sectarian politics can break through.

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This is bad for everyone, especially Muslims. It reduces Muslim voters to a grievance constituency. It rewards candidates who inflame rather than govern.

Local democracy depends on shared civic life. A councillor is not elected to represent only those who share his religion, ethnicity, foreign-policy obsessions or communal grievances. He represents the whole ward: the people who voted for him, the people who voted against him and the people who did not vote at all. This basic civic ideal is being corroded by sectarian politics. We need to confront this threat before we lose this ideal entirely.

Emma Schubart is a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.

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Menin’s Fair Fares push tests Mamdani

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City Council Speaker Julie Menin is proposing to expand an existing city discount program for low-income residents, as an alternative to Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s fast and free bus plan.

City Council Speaker Julie Menin is proposing to expand an existing city discount program for low-income residents, as an alternative to Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s fast and free bus plan.

DAYS THE BUDGET IS LATE: 36 

ALL’S FARE: City Council Speaker Julie Menin portrayed Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s administration today as stuck running a failing mass transit discount program.

The alternative? Her own plan to provide free fares to hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers.

Drawing that very particular contrast served as an attempt to turn the tables on Mamdani, who made free buses a key campaign pledge. Menin’s preferred approach is to expand Fair Fares — an existing discount for low-income residents — into a free bus and subway program for people at or below 150 percent of the poverty level.

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In the process, Menin and other Council members poked the administration for not enrolling enough people in the current iteration of Fair Fares by failing to cut unnecessary red tape. Right now, less than 40 percent of eligible people participate, leaving half a million New Yorkers paying full freight for rides they could get at half price.

Menin called it “failing” and blamed a multi-step enrollment process that includes downloading an app and filing out a lengthy form.

“There has to be a recognition that the system is broken,” she said during a Council hearing today.

Rebecca Chew, a chief program officer from the city’s Human Resources Administration, told Menin the agency “worked hard to streamline the process and identify efficiencies, and it’s something we’re continuously looking at to improve and refine.” Later, Chew said that nearly half the people enrolled in one year — right now that’s 380,000 — fail to re-enroll in the next.

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Fair Fares largely predates Mamdani, but under lengthy questioning from Council Member Crystal Hudson, Chew and her colleagues did not offer specific targets for improving enrollment.

The Council is seeking to make enrollment automatic.

Menin opened the hearing by saying she was “very disappointed” in the Mamdani administration for not sending the head of the Department of Social Services to testify.

“I’d be remiss if I did not express our deep disappointment in that,” she said.

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Mamdani has not yet taken a position on the Council proposal.

The democratic socialist has long been skeptical of means-tested programs. But by his own admission, his free-buses-for-all plan isn’t going to happen this year, which creates an awkward situation: He now appears unwilling to support an arguably half-loaf solution that would nonetheless help hundreds of thousands of people ride the bus and subway for free.

“Fair Fares is an important tool for low-income New Yorkers but does not reach enough of them,” Mamdani spokesperson Jeremy Edwards said in an email. “The administration is reviewing all Fair Fares proposals. We will continue to encourage eligible residents to enroll in Fair Fares and work with city and state partners to make transit more affordable for all New Yorkers.” — Ry Rivard

From the Capitol

State Sen. John Liu introduced a bill to increase the cost of marriage licenses and a City Hall wedding in New York City.

WEDDING BELL$: With New York City mired in red ink, one new idea might help Mamdani make a very small dent in the very big budget shortfall.

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City officials have reached out to state lawmakers to let the City Council hike the cost of a City Hall wedding from $25 to $55 and the fee for a marriage license from $25 to $60.

The fee increases would be a miniscule boon to the city’s financial needs — perhaps to the tune of $4 million a year. And the sponsors in the state Legislature say the bill isn’t written with balancing the budget in mind

The fees haven’t been increased since the early 1990s, and the administrative costs of performing a wedding have since risen to $126 — meaning the total fee hike to $115 would simply mean city government loses less money on each ceremony.

“This is a request from the Marriage Bureau, so I think it makes sense,” said state Sen. John Liu, who introduced a bill on the subject Tuesday. “It’s important that people don’t view this as a marriage penalty — no one likes fees and no one likes fee increases, but it’s been the same for decades.”

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Assembly Judiciary Committee Chair Charles Lavine expects critics won’t hesitate to gripe about the minor change: “’If we make it more expensive to get married, then fewer people will get married,’” he said, predicting the GOP response.

The issue is being discussed outside of budget talks, so it will need to be dealt with in the dwindling number of session days before state lawmakers pack it in on June 4.

“We are going to be stuck with a handful of legislative days,” Lavine said. “I hope it’ll work. It’s about time those fees will be made a little more substantial.”

Mamdani has paid more attention to the Marriage Bureau than any of his predecessors — he’s notably the only modern mayor to stop by the City Clerk’s office to officiate ceremonies himself. — Bill Mahoney

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NO ICE MELT: White House border czar Tom Homan’s threat of an ICE surge into New York if a package of sanctuary measures are approved isn’t deterring Democratic state lawmakers.

“If anything, it makes me want to double down,” Democratic state Sen. Pat Fahy said.

Gov. Kathy Hochul and state lawmakers are close to an agreement on a series of bills that would limit how federal immigration agencies like ICE can coordinate with local police departments. They also plan to limit where civil deportation warrants can be executed, blocking them from being carried out in locations like educational facilities and houses of worship.

Read more from POLITICO’s Nick Reisman

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FROM CITY HALL

Mayor Zohran Mamdani announced in February an audit on city agencies' response protocols with federal immigration enforcement.

ICE VENDOR FACES HEAT: Mamdani’s administration is scrutinizing NYPD contracts with a surveillance technology company that’s faced criticism for doing business with federal immigration authorities, our Chris Sommerfeldt reports today.

The examination of the NYPD’s dealings with Vigilant Solutions is part of an ongoing audit process being conducted by Mamdani’s administration at the police department and five other city agencies.

Mamdani ordered the reviews in February with the stated goal of strengthening New York City’s sanctuary laws as President Donald Trump’s administration continues its aggressive — and at times lethal — immigration crackdowns across the U.S. The laws bar city employees and resources from being used to assist federal authorities in civil immigration matters.

The revelation that the NYPD audit is looking at a private company indicates Mamdani wants to scrutinize not just whether the department is complying with the sanctuary laws but also its vendors. In ordering the audits, Mamdani specified they may result in “changes and updates to policies and protocols,” suggesting the singling out of Vigilant could come with repercussions for its NYPD contracts.

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Asked why the police department’s Vigilant connections are being scrutinized in particular, mayoral spokesperson Sam Raskin provided little clarity. “The Mamdani administration has engaged with a number of agencies on their policies, guidelines and procedures related to federal immigration enforcement,” he said Tuesday. “We will share more soon.”

As part of the audit process, a questionnaire directed the NYPD to submit a “draft audit” to the mayor’s office with responses to all inquiries by April 20. The form then says the NYPD and the mayor’s office would review the draft before a finalized submission to Mamdani by Thursday.

Read the story from Chris in POLITICO here

ON A RELATED MATTER: When Jeff Blau of Related Companies sat for an interview at a real estate conference Wednesday, he likely expected a friendly crowd.

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But three separate times during a 30-minute interview, activists from the left-leaning New York Communities for Change interrupted his remarks to protest a tentative Adams administration deal under which Blau’s firm would benefit from some $2 billion in public subsidies to complete Hudson Yards.

“$2 billion of taxpayer’s money!” the activists, who were quickly rushed out of the room, shouted. “Shame on you! Shame on you, Related!”

The progressive advocacy group is pushing the Mamdani administration to scrap the public financing scheme — calling it a “boondoggle” and the “biggest corporate bailout in New York City history.”

That tentative deal is now up to Mamdani, but he’s not rushing to move it forward. Mayoral spokesperson Matt Rauschenbach said Wednesday: “We are not actively engaged in negotiations to move this project forward at this time.”

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Blau said he still hopes to advance the project.

“Our hope is that we will announce a transaction this year, we’ll start construction on another 3 million square foot office building and probably start about 2,500 apartments at the same time, 625 affordable units,” Blau said at the conference. “So really a great addition to New York City.”

The ticketed event Wednesday was hosted by The Real Deal, a trade publication that covers the real estate industry. Founder and publisher Amir Korangy, who interviewed Blau, slammed the interruptions.

“This is not the right venue for this,” Korangy said, clearly exasperated by the third instance. “This was clearly coordinated.”

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He added, to some chuckles, “I mean, at least they bought tickets.”

Blau was generally bullish on New York City and offered some praise of the mayor, even as other members of the business elite have raised concerns about his approach in recent days.

“I think the mayor is very, very supportive of new housing construction and is trying to eliminate barriers,” Blau said.
“He’s just getting started and our hope is that he will continue to do that and he will focus on things like [485-x] and engage with the private sector,” he added, referring to the property tax incentive for New York City residential projects that has garnered criticism from the industry.

“We’re doing things all around the country and even globally, but New York City is our home,” Blau continued. “This is the greatest city in the world, despite the protesters. I’m committed to New York City.” — Janaki Chadha

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FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

GOP gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman told reporters that climate change concerns should not influence energy policy decisions.

BLAKEMAN ON CLIMATE CHANGE: Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman demurred when asked today if he believed in climate change during a press conference at the state Capitol.

“Would it be accurate to say that you believe in climate change?” Blakeman was asked.

“I’m not a scientist and I’m not an engineer,” he responded. “Anytime we can make the environment better with a commonsense solution that’s affordable and makes sense, why not?”

Minutes before, Blakeman stressed to reporters that concerns about climate change shouldn’t guide energy policy decisions.

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“To take drastic measures and pretend that you’re actually going to change the carbon footprint of our state and that’s going to have a material effect on the world is complete, utter fiction,” Blakeman said. “Our carbon footprint is miniscule compared to the rest of the world.”

His comments come as Democrats like Hochul are struggling to keep up with the state’s ambitious green policies. The governor poised to win changes to weaken New York’s climate law in the budget, eliminating a near-term deadline to reduce emissions.

Playbook followed up with Blakeman’s campaign this afternoon to ask if he’s landed on a stance on whether he believes climate change is real. We haven’t heard back yet. Jason Beeferman

IN OTHER NEWS

SCRUB-A-DUB: Mamdani’s administration has quietly removed a landing page on the city Economic Development Corporation’s website promoting New York City’s business ties to Israel. (Free Beacon)

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LONG LINES: The number of Long Island families receiving food stamps has grown significantly as thousands may lose access following eligibility changes. (Newsday)

IN THE STREETS: Pro-Palestinian and Pro-Israel protestors were met with a heavy police presence outside Park East Syngogue, which was hosting an event on land sales in Israel. (The New York Times)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

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Zack Polanski is a joke that isn’t funny anymore

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Zack Polanski is a joke that isn’t funny anymore

I guess it’s only fitting that Zack Polanski has been accused of telling porkies about his career. The Green Party leader who thinks men can identify as women apparently spent years identifying as a British Red Cross spokesman and a fully licensed hypnotherapist.

Polanski is a figure by turns despicable and risible. The latest revelations fall into the latter bucket. According to The Times, he passed off his efforts hosting fundraisers for the Red Cross as a formal spokesman role with the charity, even bragging on his website in 2020 that he was ‘really proud of the work we do’ (my emphasis).

As for the hypnotherapy thing (Polanski claimed to be a full member of the National Council of Hypnotherapy), this has only served to remind people of the creepiest and most embarrassing chapter of his professional life: when he had a practice on Harley Street and claimed he could enlarge women’s breasts with his skills. I for one am shocked that a bloke who claimed he could do hypno boob jobs might not have been on the up and up.

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Natch, Polanski has accused the right-wing media of having a vendetta against him. But he apparently can’t stop giving them ammunition. And I don’t just mean by massaging his CV. Indeed, I hope his colourful past doesn’t steal focus from the shameful things he is saying and doing in the present – particularly on anti-Semitism.

After two Jews were knifed in Golders Green, the heart of Jewish north London, last week, you might have expected the self-appointed leader of the ‘anti-racist’ left to have something strong to say about it. Instead, we got a perfunctory tweet from Polanski, which interestingly omitted the words ‘Jews’ and ‘anti-Semitism’.

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If only he had stopped there. Instead, Our Zack proceeded to share posts criticising the police for how they subdued the suspect – they gave the scumbag a few stern kicks to the head, fearing he might be wearing a suicide vest, as they wrestled to get the knife off him.

After a rebuke from Metropolitan Police chief Sir Mark Rowley, Polanski apologised. Kinda. When pressed over the weekend, he conceded only that – while he remained concerned, even ‘traumatised’, by the treatment of the suspect – he should have taken it up with the cops in private, rather than on social media.

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Personally, if I was looking for a word to describe how I felt watching that arrest footage, ‘traumatised’ is not the one I’d land on. (That kicking might have been the first time I’ve ever envied a copper.) But trying to turn an attack on Jews into a conversation about police brutality is only the latest, despicable distraction tactic to be used by ‘progressives’ whenever Jew hatred rears its head.

The reflex is always to deflect, to change the subject. Polanski even made a point on Sky News on Sunday of saying that the suspect, Essa Suleiman, also allegedly stabbed a Muslim man (a friend of his) in south-east London before going on his rampage in Golders Green.

What is the point of this comment, if not to dilute the distinctly anti-Jewish nature of the (alleged) attack in Golders Green? Only Polanski can know. But it looks and feels like Zack – like many on the ‘pro-Palestine’ left – struggles to compute the distinct threat to Jewish life and so feels compelled to diminish and generalise it.

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You’ll have noticed this tic. After a little throat-clearing about how awful anti-Semitism is, leftists will suddenly pivot to Islamophobia, or racism in general – issues on which they’re much more comfortable. Because staying on topic would provoke awkward questions about their own role in fomenting the Jew hatred in our midst.

On this score, the Green Party is now the prime offender, picking up where Corbyn’s Labour left off. There have been a slew of stories of late about Green local-election candidates and activists spewing pond-scum anti-Semitism. And no, we’re not talking about ‘criticisms of Israel’, as some remain determined to dress it up. We’re talking about calling Jews ‘cockroaches’, dismissing October 7 as a ‘false flag’, and openly praising the rapists and butchers of Hamas. At least 25 Greens have a history of anti-Semitism. Two were arrested last week on suspicion of inciting racial hatred.

And what is the Green Party doing about it? Only a handful of these candidates have been sanctioned. Mark Adderley, standing in Crystal Palace in south London, was suspended after his rants about ‘the chosen people’ were uncovered, but his local party is still urging people to vote for him. Co-deputy leader Mothin Ali has even been encouraging some ousted candidates to take legal action against his own party.

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Polanski says these are just a few bad apples, that there are anti-Semites in every party, that the establishment is just trying to take him down, etc. Presumably the media are choosing only to report on the Greens’ Jew haters. Perhaps he thinks Bibi Netanyahu put them up to it.

But this won’t wash. The Greens have succumbed to anti-Israel hysteria, which is the seedbed of the new anti-Semitism. All the ancient anti-Semitic tropes about Jews – as baby killers, puppeteers, sneaky subversives – have just been dolled up as ‘anti-Zionism’. And as the Greens’ candidates list attests, the Jew haters aren’t even bothering to make the distinction anymore.

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Polanski, himself a Jewish man, can hardly be accused of being an anti-Semite. But he has become a prisoner of his own low-wattage worldview. The anti-Israel zealot cannot compute the new anti-Semitism, because doing so would require admitting he is part of the problem.

Plus, it would require admitting that much of this Jew hatred is coming from Muslim communities, which the Greens are desperate to court in our more ‘diverse’ cities. Political calculation meets moral cowardice.

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Politics Home Article | The Rundown Podcast: What To Look Out For At The Local Elections

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The Rundown Podcast: What To Look Out For At The Local Elections
The Rundown Podcast: What To Look Out For At The Local Elections


2 min read

As voters nationwide prepare to go to the polls for a highly anticipated set of local elections tomorrow (Thursday), this week we have a special episode giving you a guide to the key results, when to expect them, how to interpret them, and what might happen next.

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With around 5,000 council seats in England up for grabs on 7 May, along with six mayoralities, every seat at Holyrood and in the newly expanded Senedd, the Labour Party is braced for an extremely painful evening, which will likely put renewed pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership over the weekend.

At the same time, the Conservatives’ electoral woes are expected to continue, in what would be a reminder of the work leader Kemi Badenoch has to do to repair the party’s brand following its heavy general election defeat in 2024.

Meanwhile, signs point to the UK’s insurgent smaller parties, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and Zack Polanski’s Greens, winning many hundreds of seats across the country.

There are also expected to be gains for Liberal Democrats and independent candidates, further demonstrating Britain’s shift to multi-party politics.

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To discuss all of that and more, host of The Rundown podcast, Alain Tolhurst, is joined by Luke Tryl, UK Director at think tank More in Common, along with Dr Hannah Bunting, Senior Lecturer at Exeter University and co-director of The Elections Centre, plus PoliticsHome’Adam Payne and The House magazine’s Sienna Rodgers.


The Rundown is presented by Alain Tolhurst, and is produced by Nick Hilton and edited by Ewan Cameron for Podot

  • Click here to listen to the latest episode of The Rundown, or search for ‘PoliticsHome’ wherever you get your podcasts.

 

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The House | The UK’s ‘visa brake’ risks punishing students from conflict-affected countries

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The UK's ‘visa brake’ risks punishing students from conflict-affected countries
The UK's ‘visa brake’ risks punishing students from conflict-affected countries


4 min read

The blanket ban on certain overseas student visas will do little to tackle the asylum backlog, while harming the prospects of young people in some of the world’s most dangerous countries.

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In the current political climate, headlines often move at breakneck speed. But rushed political decisions, made with little scrutiny, can cause lasting harm that far outlasts the news cycle.

When the Home Secretary blocked student visas for nationals of Afghanistan, Cameroon, Myanmar and Sudan, alongside skilled worker visas for Afghans, last month, the rationale was that it would reduce strain on and abuse of the asylum system. However, the government estimates that the 18-visa month visa brake will reduce asylum claims by only 1,400. Set against more than 160,000 applications over the last 18 months, this will do little to address existing backlogs, while carrying serious consequences for people from impacted countries.

Entering the UK with permission to study and later claiming asylum because war erupts or repression intensifies at home is not misuse. It is the protection system working as intended. The evidence supports this: in 2025, 94 per cent of Sudanese asylum applicants were granted protection. These are people seeking protection from well-documented violence and persecution, not looking for loopholes. I am in Sudan currently, and it offers a stark illustration; the country is facing the world’s worst humanitarian crisis since records began, and millions of young people have been denied access to education.

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One Sudanese colleague, who arrived in the UK on a Chevening scholarship, explained that “the study visa is not just an opportunity, it represents hope, stability, and a pathway to building a better future. A lot of time, effort, and hope have already been invested in this process.”

At the International Rescue Committee (IRC), we work with people from the moment they are forced to flee, through to rebuilding their lives in safety.  All four countries affected by the visa brake are on the IRC’s Emergency Watchlist, meaning they are amongst the 20 most fragile and conflict-affected places on Earth.

The impact is particularly severe for women and girls in Afghanistan, where they have been banned from receiving education over the age of 12, leaving around 1.5m girls barred from secondary education alone. For many Afghan women, access to education abroad has become one of the last remaining routes to learning and independence. One Afghan IRC colleague who arrived in the UK on a scholarship told us the decision feels equivalent to when the Taliban banned women from education and work: “It takes away access to education and opportunity, with very similar consequences for Afghan youth, especially women.”

These visas are often not about permanent migration but gaining qualifications and experience that can help rebuild their countries. An Afghan client, who arrived as a student, told us that this will have a serious impact on the dreams of talented young Afghans: “For many, these opportunities are not just about studying or working abroad. They represent hope, stability and a future built through hard work.”

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Cameroon is another case in point. For students from English-speaking regions, deeply affected by ongoing violence, access to education in the UK is needed for training lawyers to work within English common law, and for doctors who can return to support overstretched health services.

For those who do stay in the UK, many have worked tirelessly to secure opportunities and are now making extraordinary contributions to workplaces, universities and communities.

These concerns are shared in Parliament. Baroness Royall, former Principal of Somerville College, Oxford, expressed dismay that “brilliant students, following rigorous selection procedures and on fully funded scholarships, have had their hopes, dreams and futures shattered”.

Lord Smith, Chancellor of Cambridge University, echoes this, noting that “overseas students bring life and cultural difference to our universities, and we are infinitely the richer for it”.

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We have seen the damaging consequences of nationality-based restrictions before. In the US, travel bans reinforced harmful stereotypes and fueled hostility. Policies that imply certain nationalities are more likely to ‘abuse’ the system risk deepening division, without fixing the challenges the asylum system faces.

Student and skilled worker visas should be assessed on individual merit. Blanket restrictions based on nationality are unfair, risk undermining British values and set a dangerous precedent.

 

Flora Alexander is Executive Director of International Rescue Committee UK

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Wings Over Scotland | The value bet

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To pass the time on (praise be to Jeebus) the last day of the Holyrood election campaign, we thought we’d do a summary of all the seat projections we could find from last month and this month. Here it is.

Now, as it happens we think the potential seat ranges are significantly wider. There are so many factors of uncertainty that while there’s no doubt who’s going to be the biggest party, we reckon SNP seats could potentially be anywhere from about 47 to about 67 (most likely the upper part of that range), with corresponding ramifications below.

But there’s one potentially interesting thing in that bottom half.

Polling’s been so all-over-the-place that there is no settled consensus about which orders the runners-up will finish in. Here’s a summary of the projections:

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REFORM
8 x 2nd
4 x 3rd

LABOUR
2 x 2nd
8 x 3rd
1 x 4th
1 x 5th

GREENS
2 x 2nd
5 x 4th
3 x 5th
2 x 6th

LIB DEMS
5 x 4th
2 x 5th
5 x 6th

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TORIES
3 x 4th
4 x 5th
5 x 6th

Reform look like favourites for the silver medal, and no projection has put them lower than 3rd. Labour have ranged from 2nd-5th, the Greens from 2nd-6th, with the Lib Dems and Tories not expected to do better than 4th.

Which makes these numbers rather startling.

The gulf in odds between Labour/Reform and the Greens is frankly astonishing. If you bet £100 on Reform to come second you’d make £50 profit. Put the same amount on Labour and if they took the silver you’d be £150 ahead. But stick it on the Greens and get lucky and you’d net yourself a tasty £12,500 windfall.

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Extraordinarily, the Greens are at far longer odds to come second than the SNP, and there is NO chance of the SNP coming second.

(SkyBet’s odds of them winning are 1/200, meaning that if you staked your £100 on them to get the most seats, you’d make a whopping profit of 50p.)

Heck, the Greens coming second (125/1) is at almost the same odds as Alba winning the election (150/1), and Alba don’t even EXIST.

Readers, we don’t think the Greens will be runners-up at this election, and we certainly PRAY that they won’t. But the margins are so slim between all the non-SNP parties, and the polls so febrile, that it’s definitely not beyond the bounds of possibility, and at those absolutely doolally odds it might be worth popping a couple of quid on it just to cheer yourself up if it happens.

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The ugly truth about the cult of Palestinianism

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The ugly truth about the cult of Palestinianism

So this is the movement that the queen of smug, Sally Rooney, promised to share her fat royalty cheques with. This is the movement that plummy vicars fawned over in Westminster Square with their placards saying ‘I Support Palestine Action’. A movement that counts within its ranks men content to use a 7lb sledgehammer to fracture the back of a woman. A movement so far up the fundament of its own self-righteousness that its members think nothing of raining steel blows on a woman’s spine. I would engage in some serious self-reflection if an organisation I gushed over was found to contain blokes who use weapons to crack women’s bones.

This is the news that four members of Palestine Action were found guilty at Woolwich Crown Court yesterday of causing criminal damage at a UK site of the Israel-based defence firm, Elbit Systems. One of them was also found guilty of inflicting grievous bodily harm. He twice whacked a female police officer, Sgt Kate Evans, with a sledgehammer as she tried to arrest one of the keffiyeh-wearing intruders. He fractured her spine. She was off work for three months. To this day she experiences back pain. As Tom Gent of Avon & Somerset Police said yesterday, battering the spinal column of a female officer is not ‘protest’ – it is ‘thuggery’ and it had ‘devastating consequences’ for Sgt Evans.

It was in August 2024 that the Palestine Action gimps in their dumb red boiler suits crashed a van into the security gates of the Elbit factory near Bristol. They stormed inside, tooled up with weapons to destroy the evil wares of those demonic Israelis. They used crowbars and hammers to smash computers, drones and other equipment. They caused a million quids’ worth of damage. When security guards and cops tried to stop their carnival of hubristic vandalism, they turned on them. Alongside the whack of Sgt Evans’ back, the court also heard that one security guard was whipped by one of the Israelophobic mugs, and another allegedly had a firework thrown at him, causing him to suffer a 4cm cut to his face that had to be stapled at hospital.

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Is this what Ms Rooney had in mind when she said she would ‘go on supporting Palestine Action’ even after it was proscribed as a terrorist group by Keir Starmer’s government last year? A group that fucked up a woman’s back and humiliated security guards? One of the intruders, with a keffiyeh around his waist, was heard taunting a security guard with the words, ‘You’re not going to have a job tomorrow’. You will search in vain for a better snapshot of the bilious snobbery of the bourgeois left than this image of four arseholes from the leafy part of town wielding whips and hammers as they mocked basic-wage security guards.

The digital left has been strangely schtum about Palestine Action these past 24 hours. The six bozos were found not guilty of aggravated burglary in February – Rooney and all the other Gazaholics lapped that up. But now four of them have been found guilty of criminal damage, and one of GBH, while the remaining two were acquitted. Perhaps even through the mental fog of their malarial loathing for Israel, the keffiyeh set can see it is not a good look to cheer twats who smash property, smash backs and clash with working-class men, all in order to make a spectacle of their own deluded sense of ethical rectitude.

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That’s what this case has really revealed – the lethal narcissism of the keffiyeh classes. This is a class of people so drunk on moral vanity, so convinced of their own saintedness, that they seem to think anything is justified in the name of ‘the cause’. That cause being to advertise to the world their bloated vision of themselves as holy crusaders against the wickedest state in existence. Indeed, one of the activists told the jury, ‘with absolute certainty’, that breaking into the Elbit base ‘is the best thing I have ever done’. You sad bastard. ‘There is a good chance’, they said, that ‘innocent lives were saved’ as a result of ‘our actions that night’. This is a level of self-delusion that borders on the pathological. Lost in a cocoon of sanctimonious fantasy, they really believe that breaking a computer in Bristol will save a life in Gaza.

This is the modus operandi of Palestine Action – it executes dumb stunts not to impact world affairs but to assert the cultural supremacy of the credentialled haters of Israel here at home. It is moral hubris and class arrogance masquerading as ‘anti-war’. Sometimes it crosses the line into something darker, like when Palestine Action smashed up a Jewish-owned business in Stamford Hill in London. This feels ‘very, very scary now’, said local Jews amid the shattered glass of that woke mini-Kristallnacht. Who could have guessed that the bourgeois left’s division of the world into ‘the anointed’ who righteously hate the Jewish State, and ‘the demonic’ who support it, would prove so catastrophic for the liberty and dignity of Britain’s Jews? All of us. That’s who.

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It feels like this has been a mask-slipping week for the cult of Palestinianism. More people can surely see the sectarian malice that lurks behind that veil of pacifism. A keffiyeh mob smashing a woman’s back. Rancid anti-Semites who call Jews ‘cockroaches’ stinking up the Green Party of England and Wales. Another gaggle of sanctimonious sea-farers setting off for Gaza, even though there’s no famine there, while in South Sudan nearly eight million face ‘acute hunger’. The stabbing of two Jews in Golders Green glossed over by supposed ‘anti-fascists’, who seem more interested in their own right to chant ‘Globalise the intifada’ than in Jews’ right to live in peace. Just think about that: mere days after violence against Jews, they were demanding the right to agitate for more violence against Jews.

Some of us have known for some time that Palestinianism is bigotry in a keffiyeh, the mask Jew hatred wears in the 21st century. We’ve seen this bourgeois army and its Islamist chums engage in the most vile demonisation of the world’s only Jewish nation, and of all who support it, which includes most of the world’s Jews. Are others now clocking this truth? No, anti-Zionism and the winds of hate it has unleashed are not going away. They are far too entrenched in the cultural establishment. But a reckoning might be brewing. Let us hope so.

Brendan O’Neill is spiked’s chief political writer and host of the spiked podcast, The Brendan O’Neill Show. Subscribe to the podcast here. His latest book – After the Pogrom: 7 October, Israel and the Crisis of Civilisation – is available to order on Amazon UK and Amazon US now. And find Brendan on Instagram: @burntoakboy.

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The Israeli embassy terrorist shows why we must stop the boats

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The Israeli embassy terrorist shows why we must stop the boats

The post The Israeli embassy terrorist shows why we must stop the boats appeared first on spiked.

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