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Politics

How Are All The Main Parties Feeling Ahead Of Elections?

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Prime Minister Keir Starmer speaks with residents at Newton Leys pavilion to discuss how the government is implementing policies to ease the cost of living as he campaigns ahead of local elections scheduled for May 7 on April 1, 2026

This Thursday will present the largest test of the Labour government – and its rival parties – since the last general election nearly two years ago.

Around 5,000 seats across 136 local councils, along with six mayoral contests, are up for election in England.

Voters in Scotland and Wales will also go to the polls for elections to Holyrood and the Senedd.

Labour are widely expected to suffer a catastrophic night, piling fresh pressure on Keir Starmer.

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The Tories are expected to endure significant losses too, with the Greens and especially Reform UK on course to make huge gains as voters deliver a damning verdict on the two main parties.

Here, HuffPost UK assesses how the main parties are shaping up ahead of the biggest test of public opinion since July, 2024.

Labour

Prime Minister Keir Starmer speaks with residents at Newton Leys pavilion to discuss how the government is implementing policies to ease the cost of living as he campaigns ahead of local elections scheduled for May 7 on April 1, 2026
Prime Minister Keir Starmer speaks with residents at Newton Leys pavilion to discuss how the government is implementing policies to ease the cost of living as he campaigns ahead of local elections scheduled for May 7 on April 1, 2026

Peter Nicholls via Getty Images

Pollsters’ prediction? Top forecaster Lord Hayward warned Labour will lose 1,850 council seats. That means the party could be left with barely a quarter of the 2,550 councillors they currently have in the areas which are up for re-election.

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YouGov does not expect Labour to win any constituency seats in Scotland at all, with their predicted 15 seats coming from the regional top-up lists.

Labour is also expected to lose power in the Welsh parliament for the first time since it was established in 1999, with YouGov predicting the party’s vote share will drop to 13% – down 23 points on the 2021 election.

That means Labour could end up with just 12 of the Senedd’s 96 seats.

What’s the mood within the party? Understandably bleak.

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Starmer is actively calling for his party to support him amid rising fears of a leadership challenge from his main rivals Angela Rayner, Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting.

One party insider said: “We’re resigned to taking a significant knock, but are still standing and trying to get out as many votes as possible.”

“I just think Labour are fucked either way,” another source said candidly.

In a rare moment of optimism, campaigners also said voters have been “disinterested” rather than actively hostile to Labour activists – which was an improvement on what they were expecting.

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One insider told HuffPost UK that deputy prime minister David Lammy had told activists over the weekend that the row which hit Zack Polanksi in the wake of last week’s Golders Green attacks could damage the Greens.

This sparked some hope that the party could claw back some of their supporters.

Conservatives

Kemi Badenoch, Leader of the Conservative Party meets party supporters during a visit to Sunderland on April 02, 2026 in Sunderland, United Kingdom.
Kemi Badenoch, Leader of the Conservative Party meets party supporters during a visit to Sunderland on April 02, 2026 in Sunderland, United Kingdom.

Ian Forsyth via Getty Images

Pollsters’ prediction? The Tories are expected to lose 600 councillors in England, according to Lord Hayward.

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YouGov expects the Tory vote to fall to just 8% of the vote in Holyrood – that would be the worst ever result for the party at any election within Scotland.

Predictions suggest the Tories would go from having 31 seats in 2021 to just seven.

The pollster also predicts the Tories will end up with just three seats in Wales.

What’s the mood within the party? Not very optimistic.

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Tory leader Kemi Badenoch’s own leadership has been strengthened in recent months as she’s improved her PMQs appearance – and her main challenger, Robert Jenrick has defected to Reform.

But that does not necessarily translate to votes – especially as the Tories are still being punished for their 14 years in power.

One traditionally Conservative voter stunned the public this week by announcing she would be backing Labour instead, just to keep the Greens out.

Anecdotally, HuffPost UK has heard other Tories telling door-knockers they planned to do the same. The party did not respond when approached for comment.

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Reform UK

Nigel Farage leader of the Reform UK party holds up a booklet during a press conference in London, Monday, April 13, 2026.
Nigel Farage leader of the Reform UK party holds up a booklet during a press conference in London, Monday, April 13, 2026.

Pollsters’ prediction? Hayward expects Reform to gain 1,550 seats in England.

The party is expected to make a bmajor reakthrough in Scotland, according to YouGov, winning 20 MSPs in total and replacing Labour as the official opposition to the SNP.

Reform is also in a close fight with Plaid Cymru to be the largest party in the Welsh Senedd.

What’s the mood within the party? Understandably upbeat.

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Reform are set to win their first seats in Wales and Scotland after more than a year of leading in the national opinion polls.

Nigel Farage told The Sunday Times he expected the party to do “stunningly well”.

He claimed Reform would be taking “Labour heartlands” in the local elections – Yorkshire, the northwest, the northeast, parts of the Midlands and the Welsh Valleys.

But there are suggestions that support for the party has already peaked, with its polling numbers declining over the past six months.

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Farage also skipped a grilling from the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg on Sunday. That came after reports he accepted an undisclosed £5 million donation from a billionaire supporter before he ran to be an MP.

His team said he decided to pull out last minute to campaign in his Clacton constituency, but critics suggested he was dodging scrutiny.

The party courted further controversy on Sunday by announcing plans to put detention centres for illegal migrants in constituencies and councils which vote Green.

Greens

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(L-R) Councillor and Green Party candidate for Mayor of Lewisham, Liam Shrivastava and Green Party Leader Zack Polanski pose with supporters holding placards during Lewisham Green Party's 'Big Day Out' at the Fox and Firkin on April 11, 2026
(L-R) Councillor and Green Party candidate for Mayor of Lewisham, Liam Shrivastava and Green Party Leader Zack Polanski pose with supporters holding placards during Lewisham Green Party’s ‘Big Day Out’ at the Fox and Firkin on April 11, 2026

Kymberley Apiro via Getty Images

Pollsters’ prediction? The Greens are set to see its number of councillors in England increase by 500, according to Hayward, mainly in London and other middle class areas of major cities.

The Greens are predicted to enjoy a small boost in Scotland, up from their current eight seats to 11, according to YouGov.

YouGov also expects the party to win seven seats in Wales, meaning it could come in fourth place behind Labour in the Senedd.

What’s the mood within the party? Hopeful – but cautious.

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Leader Zack Polanski was forced to apologise last week after sharing a social media post which criticised the police response to a terror attack in Golders Green.

While Labour are hopeful this will reduce the number of voters willing to support their left-wing competitors, a Green insider suggested it would not have too much cut-through.

One senior figure in the party also insisted it was all “very positive” on the doorstep, but campaigners have been more cautious behind the scenes.

“There’s been a lot of hype about us wiping out Labour in London, and we’re definitely going to have a record-breaking result. At the same time, I think people forget the base we’re coming from,” they said, pointing to Greens’ poor performance at London’s last local elections in 2021.

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“It’s going to be very good for us but perhaps some of the more apocalyptic predictions forget the context we’re coming from,” the source claimed.

Lib Dems

Liberal Democrat party leader Sir Ed Davey (C), along with Roger Harmer, leader of Birmingham Liberal Democrats (CL), launches their local election campaign at The Roundhouse on April 10, 2026
Liberal Democrat party leader Sir Ed Davey (C), along with Roger Harmer, leader of Birmingham Liberal Democrats (CL), launches their local election campaign at The Roundhouse on April 10, 2026

Christopher Furlong via Getty Images

Pollsters’ prediction? The Lib Dems are on course to gain 150 seats in the local elections, according to Hayward.

YouGov expects the centrist party to take nine seats in Scotland (up from its current four) but secure just three seats in Wales.

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What’s the mood within the party? Surprisingly upbeat.

The Lib Dems have been trailing in the national opinion polls for some time, outshone by the traditional parties and the populist groups.

Behind the scenes, MPs have been unhappy with Ed Davey’s leadership for months, frustrated with his “gimmicks”.

But, with these elections, the party has developed a clear strategy – focusing on local council issues in the hope of taking more seats in England.

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There’s even been some speculation they could become the largest party in English local government, especially with Labour and the Tories expecting to endure major losses.

SNP

SNP MSP Candidate for Stirling Alyn Smith (C-L), First Minister John Swinney (C) and Deputy Leader of the SNP Keith Brown (C-R) pose for a photo after a campaign stump speech at the King's Knot on May 01, 2026
SNP MSP Candidate for Stirling Alyn Smith (C-L), First Minister John Swinney (C) and Deputy Leader of the SNP Keith Brown (C-R) pose for a photo after a campaign stump speech at the King’s Knot on May 01, 2026

Jeff J Mitchell via Getty Images

Pollsters’ prediction? The SNP is once again on course to comfortably win the Scottish Parliament election.

YouGov predicted the SNP could win 67 seats in Holyrood – giving the party an overall majority. But More in Common and Lord Hayward have both said they will fall short.

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What’s the mood within the party? Very happy.

If the polls are correct, the SNP is heading for a remarkable third decade in power, after first being elected way back in 2007.

This is despite criticism of their handling of the Scottish NHS, education system and other public services during nearly 20 years in power.

While questions remain over whether the party will be able to clinch a majority, they are set to benefit from the major splits between Scottish Labour and the Westminster government.

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Labour leader Anas Sarwar called for Starmer to step down earlier this year in the hope of distancing himself from Downing Street’s disasters, but the move does not seem to have won over voters.

The Nationalists have also pledged to call for a second Scottish independence referendum if they win a majority.

Plaid Cymru

Leader of Plaid Cymru, Rhun ap Iorwerth speaks during the Plaid Cymru manifesto launch on April 9, 2026 in Wrexham, Wales. Plaid Cymru is launching its manifesto ahead of the Senedd (Welsh Parliament) elections taking place on May 7.
Leader of Plaid Cymru, Rhun ap Iorwerth speaks during the Plaid Cymru manifesto launch on April 9, 2026 in Wrexham, Wales. Plaid Cymru is launching its manifesto ahead of the Senedd (Welsh Parliament) elections taking place on May 7.

Matthew Horwood via Getty Images

Pollsters’ prediction? The pro-independence party is only standing in the Welsh devolved election. Hayward predicted it will be the largest party in terms of votes and seats in Senedd.

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However, YouGov predicted it will secure 36 seats – making it just one representative away from Reform’s lead.

What’s the mood within the party? Nervous.

Like the SNP, Plaid Cymru are hoping to capitalise on Labour’s downfall.

Unlike the Scottish Nationalists, they’ve never been in power before and so do not have to contend with their own record in office to win over voters.

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But, they do have the new kids on the block to compete with: Reform UK, who are making gains in Wales – and who look set to be the largest unionist party in the Senedd after Thursday.

How Important Will May 7 Actually Be?

Steve Akehurst, director of research initiative Persuasion UK, warned against seeing this set of results as the ideal test of how the public feels.

He told HuffPost UK: “Local elections are an imperfect way of attempting to measure national sentiment.

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“In terms of predictions, I think it’s best to wait for the national equivalent vote share later in the weekend.”

The specialist said analysing Reform’s performance will be particularly difficult “given the party basically didn’t exist in 2022, the last time many of these seats were contested.”

But, Akehurst warned: “It’s important to remember that Labour losing seats to Reform is not the same as Labour losing votes to Reform.

“Around the country we have seen the same patterns since the general election – where votes shifting from Reform to Tory, or Labour to Green or Liberal Democrat, led to Labour seats becoming Reform seats with little direct loss of votes from one party to the other.

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“That is likely to be the case again at these elections.”

Subscribe to Commons People, the podcast that makes politics easy. Every week, Kevin Schofield and Kate Nicholson unpack the week’s biggest stories to keep you informed. Join us for straightforward analysis of what’s going on at Westminster.

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John Redwood: The new Conservative Party has conservative values

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Sir John, now Lord, Redwood is a former MP for Wokingham and a former Secretary of State for Wales.

I have just published a new short book called “Who’s right? The new case for Conservatism.” In it I set out those timeless values and principles which many conservatives have drawn on over the years. I look at current major arguments over net zero, energy, migration, free speech, benefits reform, national security and the scope of the public sector to draw together the ideas we believe in. I was pleased to read Kemi’s article in the Telegraph last Sunday saying she wants new MPs to be Conservative in thought.

Conservatives believe in freedom. We believe in free speech, free elections, and  free enterprise. We value the talents of individuals, the benefits of the small battalions and free institutions, and the power of the family. We understand the importance of traditions and learning passed down the generations.  We wish to see a prosperous country with wealth and ownership widely spread, a well defended country safe from war and threats, and a civil society with sufficient common bonds and culture.

Conservatives accept the need for limits placed on freedoms for the greater good. We expect a strong rule of law. Free enterprise does not extend to theft and fraud. Freedom to do things should not stretch to harming your neighbour or advancing by violence.

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Conservatives do not want to blindly follow the past, welcoming positive change from the ideas and actions of enterprising individuals and institutions. Traditions and the past should be respected and drawn upon but not become restrictive bonds preventing something better. Conservatives wish to be the “dwarves on the shoulders of the giants”, seeing further because we inherit past wisdom and knowledge.

Conservatives love the countryside and wish to conserve the best of our natural and built environments. We value clean water and fresh air. We believe in being kind to animals, accepting their needs as they live alongside us.

Conservatives welcome strong families and see them as their own welfare societies, transferring wealth and skills between generations and accepting most of the responsibility for bringing up children and caring for the elderly. The state has a welfare role when families break down or when the demands are too great on family members.

Conservatives believe in equality of opportunity, offering a hand up in preference to a hand out. We want to help people on their individual journeys, and accept that those who achieve more and contribute more may earn more and save more. We believe in lower tax rates to protect incentives. We tax the rich who have the money by setting rates that they will stay to pay.

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Conservatives oppose most revolutions for their violence and extremism. Conservatives believe in evolutionary change. There is no perfect state or utopian society that can be created because mankind has criminals as well as saints. Imposing too many solutions from government leads to the abuse of power and to the distress of freedom loving citizens. One of the least perfectible of human institutions is government itself, which needs to be watched, checked and controlled to avoid tyranny.

Conservatives believe in democratic government with choice between parties and philosophies at elections. We believe that Opposition is an important part of democratic government, to prevent a tyranny of the majority and to represent the views of legitimate minorities.

Conservatives believe in their countries, seeing the nation state as the means to create a voluntary common culture, shared experiences and team loyalty in friendly competition with other states. Conservatives are sceptical about drives to international and global government and to rule by an elite or bureaucratic class. There is no global democracy so global government is unaccountable.

Conservatives oppose extremism. We see National Socialism and Communism as two evil creeds of the last century that resulted in mass murders, dreadful wars and the suppression of freedoms which we should strive to prevent in the future.

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‘Who’s right? The new case for Conservatism’ is available on Amazon, published by Bite-sized books.

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Trump-backed Rep. Randy Feenstra concedes Iowa governor primary

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Trump-backed Rep. Randy Feenstra concedes Iowa governor primary

Rep. Randy Feenstra conceded the GOP primary for Iowa governor on Tuesday, a shocking upset after he earned President Donald Trump’s last-minute endorsement.

Feenstra announced in a speech to supporters that he called Zach Lahn, another Republican candidate for governor, to congratulate him. Lahn held a very slight edge in results around midnight Eastern time, but the Associated Press has still not called the race.

The three-term representative outspent Lahn, a businessperson and former GOP operative, by nearly $1 million and leaned heavily into his MAGA credentials during the primary.

Feenstra’s concession is a blow for Trump, who has seen most of his chosen candidates this cycle sail to victory or advance to runoff elections — until now. He backed Feenstra just four days before the primary, a last-ditch attempt to bolster his loyal GOP ally in a race that became increasingly competitive in the final stretch. Feenstra had asked for Trump’s endorsement earlier this year and began calling himself a “Trump conservative” in ads even before receiving the president’s backing.

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The race kicked off when Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds decided against running for reelection, with Feenstra, Lahn and three other candidates competing for the GOP nomination. Feenstra, who boasts a long record in the state and in Congress, was widely viewed as the front-runner, though the latest primary polling revealed he was on shaky standing.

Lahn has never held public office, but spent years working in Republican politics and running campaigns in Montana and Colorado. In this race, he positioned himself as a political outsider. “I’m my own biggest donor and I cannot be bought,” he said in one face-to-camera ad. “I’m running because career politicians, special interests and corporate giants have betrayed Iowans.”Lahn is a native Iowan but spent many years out of the state, most recently opening a private school in Wichita, and reportedly voted in Kansas from 2018 through 2022.

The face-off with Democrat Rob Sand in November will be a marquee race, with Iowa Democrats eager to win a governor’s race in the state for the first time since 2006. Sand, the Iowa state auditor, is the lone Iowa Democrat to hold statewide office.

Andrew Howard contributed to this report.

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Paralympic gold medalist Josh Turek wins Iowa Senate primary with establishment support

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Paralympic gold medalist Josh Turek wins Iowa Senate primary with establishment support

Iowa state Rep. Josh Turek won his Senate primary Tuesday, a victory for national Democrats who helped boost him as they seek to flip the critical seat.

He will face Rep. Ashley Hinson, the GOP nominee, to compete in what has become one of the nation’s most closely watched Senate races, as both parties battle for control of the upper chamber.

Turek, a wheelchair basketball player who was on teams that won two Paralympic gold medals, defeated state Sen. Zach Wahls in a chaotic primary election that turned into a proxy war between the Democratic Party’s leaders and its anti-establishment wing. Wahls frequently accused Turek of being beholden to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer — who didn’t formally endorse in the race but whose leadership PAC maxed out to Turek’s campaign — and outside groups like VoteVets, which spent more than $10 million on advertising for Turek. That figure is more than three times the combined spending from Turek’s and Wahls’ campaigns.

In the end, that money — in cohort with Turek’s “prairie populism” pitch focused on building up the working class — helped him prevail.

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Turek also boasted significant backing from Democrats in the state, including former Sen. Tom Harkin, the last Democrat to represent Iowa in the U.S. Senate. He enters the general election in a deadlock with Hinson, with preprimary polling showing the two in a statistical tie.

Democrats have not elected a senator to Washington since 2008, when Harkin was elected to his final term. But they view this cycle as a golden opportunity, thanks to a sagging economy and growing frustration with the Trump administration’s tariffs, which spiraled Iowa’s agriculture sector into chaos.

And Turek, who was elected to the Iowa House of Representatives in 2022, has been through tough races before: In that first election, he defeated a Republican opponent by just six votes.

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BBC drama ‘Years and Years’ predicted our dystopian reality

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BBC drama Years and Years

BBC drama Years and Years

In May 2019, I sat down with my mum in her living room and watched the first episode of Years and Years. This is a dystopian BBC drama created by screenwriter Russell T Davies. He is the same man who brought back Doctor Who in the mid-noughties. Since watching it in 2019, the six-part series has become an oracle. This is because almost every fictional prediction Davies makes in the series has terrifyingly come true.

Please note this article contains spoilers.

Predictions in Years and Years that came true

Years and Years follows Mancunian family the Lyons, who gather one night in 2019 to celebrate the latest addition to their family, baby Lincoln. The drama then quickly moves into the future and spans fifteen years of political turmoil, economic instability, environmental destruction and technological advances. Meanwhile, a far-right party, headed by celebrity-turned-politician Vivienne Rook (played by the brilliant Emma Thompson), rises to power in Britain.

In the first episode alone, which covers the period of 2019 to 2024, Queen Elizabeth II dies. President Trump is re-elected for a second term. Also, a Russian-backed military government takes control of Ukraine. Then, in 2025, character Celeste loses her job to artificial intelligence. Later in the series, Rook’s far-right, anti-immigration ‘Four Star Party’ secures a majority in the next general elections. Sounds scarily familiar, right?

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It’s uncanny that, when interviewed by BBC shortly after the series aired, Davies said the idea for Years and Years was hatched a decade earlier. You might argue that Queen Elizabeth II was in her 90s and would have had to die at some point. Although the year 2022 is scarily spot-on. You might also argue that he may have been inspired by the rise of far-right parties in Europe. It is true that Russia had already begun its invasion of the Ukraine in 2014. But in October 2018, when the series was being filmed, no one could have foreseen Trump getting re-elected. Likewise, no one could have predicted a far-right party actually rising to power in Britain. Back then, Nigel Farage’s Reform Party was still called the Brexit Party. No one really took Farage and his outlandish politics seriously back then.

Certainly, when I first watched the series, the idea that you could lose your job to artificial intelligence or that a far-right party would one day win a general election in the UK was far-fetched. In 2019, AI was still an emerging topic and not a mainstream conversation. Many of us still believed that our government would forever be dominated by Labour and the Conservatives. However, as Davies’s predictions have continued to come true (the latest being Reform’s local elections success in May), Years and Years has become as accurate in its prophecy-telling as The Simpsons.

Other dystopian works that have come true

Years and Years is not the first dystopian TV series, film or novel to fulfil its prophecies.

The most often-used example is George Orwell’s 1984, in which a totalitarian party implements mass surveillance of citizens via two-way screens called telescreens containing hidden cameras and microphones. 

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It has been over seven decades since 1984 was published and mass surveillance is part-and-parcel of our everyday lives. For example, the CCTV cameras are everywhere, and our smartphones ‘listen’ to us.

According to Liberty, Britain has the most intrusive mass surveillance system of any democratic country. This is thanks to the Snoopers’ Charter or Investigatory Powers Act. This act grants the state the power to collect and store information on what we do and say online. 

Why dystopian fiction is not fantasy

Dystopian fiction, as a genre, is less sci-fi and fantasy than the TV, film and publishing industries would have us believe.

What the three genres have in common is the aspect of world-building, in which the writer constructs an imaginary world that is believable. However, this is the only common denominator. Dystopian fiction is really a commentary on the social conditions we are already living in. What writers do is build upon both past and current political, social, economic and environmental conditions.

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Indeed, author Margaret Atwood has often said that The Handmaid’s Tale was inspired by things that have already happened to women as opposed to being complete figments of her imagination. The Christian evangelism dominating American society in her book has long been a shaping force in American politics. It continues to be, as we see so evidently in Trump’s America.

An inevitable return to totalitarianism?

Most dystopian TV, film and literature imagine a totalitarian world order, but we have lived through totalitarianism before and we continue to live through authoritarianism. The level of restriction on freedom of expression, freedom of press, the right to gather and the right to protest here in the UK is living proof of that.

Back in January of this year, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood proposed a new AI-powered mass surveillance system where:

the eyes of the state can be on you at all times.

And that’s under a supposedly ‘centre-left’ Labour government!

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Thanks to Years and Years, I now watch dystopian TV and read dystopian books with a less sceptical lens. Who knows, maybe the next thing to come true from Davies’s predictions will be the ability to project phone filters onto our actual faces.

Featured image via the BBC / the Canary

By Yousra Samir Imran

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Democrats seek more control over referenda in New York

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New York Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie said they don't have to

New York Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie said they don't have to

THE EMPIRE STATE STRIKES BACK: New York Democrats are moving full bore ahead with their plans to join the nationwide redistricting war.

And their efforts are more expansive than their constitutional amendment to allow mid-decade changes to congressional maps: Democrats are also moving a measure that would permanently give the Legislature the authority to decide the wording of ballot questions like the expected 2027 redistricting referendum.

Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie said today the decision to take such an aggressive approach — the amendment would eliminate a ban on lines drawn to favor political parties — was based on the Supreme Court decision, which made redistricting “more of a wide-open process.”

“For us here in New York, we want to be able to have as much flexibility in drawing districts as other states,” Heastie said. “Asking New York to play fair while everybody else is playing ruthless, it’s not right to ask us to do that.”

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Does that mean the speaker will be “ruthless” when picking up the mapmaking pen in 2028?

“I’m going to play fair based on how other people play,” he said.

Before the Empire State gets to the point where new maps are drawn, voters would need to approve the amendment next November. And the parallel ballot language effort from Democrats stands to increase the chances of that happening.

That bill would strip the bipartisan Board of Elections of its power to decide how constitutional amendments appear on the ballot and let the Legislature determine the wording seen by voters.

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The move raised the specter that next year’s referendum won’t highlight its potential to legalize gerrymandering, and instead include platitudes like asking voters if they want to “protect democracy.”

“Clearly, they’re doing this with a purpose,” said state Sen. Jack Martins, a Nassau County Republican. “The last thing we should do is play politics with our state constitution.”

As it now stands, the attorney general’s office makes recommendations on ballot wording to the two Democratic and two Republican commissioners on the Board of Elections. Those commissioners have the final say over what ballot questions look like.

“Having both sides is a strength,” said Peter Kosinski, the board’s Republican co-chair. “Making sure voters see fair language — not just partisan language on the ballot — should be our goal. And I think the Board of Elections achieves that.”

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Democrats counter that they’re best suited for determining this language.

“The will of the Legislature is extrapolated from what the people want, as opposed to the evenly-divided Board of Elections,” Senate Deputy Leader Mike Gianaris said. “The voters of this state have elected Democrats to overwhelming majorities in both houses. Why should the Republican party have 50 percent of the say in what legislative proposals look like on the ballot?”

“We just think it’s better to be in our hands,” Heastie said. — Bill Mahoney

From the Capitol

New York lawmakers are considering a bill that would prohibit nondisclosure agreements in workplace discrimination cases.

NON-DISCLOSURE PUSH: The advocacy group Lift Our Voices is making a last-minute push for a bill that would place new restrictions on the use of non-disclosure agreements.

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The group, co-founded by Gretchen Carlson and Julie Roginsky, is pushing to change “toxic workplace cultures.”

“New York should not be in the business of silencing workers,” Carlson and Roginsky said in a joint statement. “California, Washington, and New Jersey have already banned NDAs that keep survivors of workplace abuse from speaking out, and it’s time for New York to do the same.”

The bill, which would prohibit the use of nondisclosure agreements in workplace discrimination cases, is among the hundreds of proposals being considered in the final week of the legislative session. Nick Reisman

REDISTRICTING RODEO: New York Democrats’ pending redistricting amendment — first reported Monday night by POLITICO — is getting a thumbs up from House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

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“This is just the beginning of our decisive response to the Jim Crow-like tactics unleashed by the Supreme Court when it gutted voting rights in America,” Jeffries said in a statement. “We will ensure that there are free and fair elections moving forward. The Empire State will strike back.”

The proposed changes would enable Democrats to take an aggressive approach redrawing New York’s House lines by 2028.

Jeffries has taken a keen interest in his home state’s efforts to change the redistricting process. He previously appointed Rochester Rep. Joe Morelle, a Democrat who previously served in the state Assembly, to coordinate the effort with Albany lawmakers. Nick Reisman

PACKAGING FLOPS, DATA CENTER MORATORIUM MOVES: Democratic lawmakers plan to send Gov. Kathy Hochul an omnibus measure on data centers for artificial intelligence, including a one-year moratorium on new projects.

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The governor has been hesitant about the prospect of a statewide moratorium, which would be the first in the nation if she signs it.

The measure, sponsored by state Sen. Kristen Gonzalez and Assemblymember Didi Barrett, rolls in several proposals from lawmakers aimed at ensuring data centers don’t lead to higher energy bills for residents. It also includes requirements for a new rate class for data centers and labor standards.

Environmental advocates and Democratic lawmakers had initially proposed a three-year moratorium.

“Regulating hyperscale centers and also figuring out how to properly regulate artificial intelligence is an existential question,” Gonzalez said. “We’re taking a first step here as a state, but it also doesn’t mean that we are getting in the way of innovation.”

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Meanwhile, in a blow to environmental advocates, Heastie told reporters today that he does not plan to bring the plastics bill up for a vote — saying it doesn’t have the support to pass.

It’s the same line he offered last session, though advocates contend the votes are there and that it’s special interest lobbyists standing in the way.

The extended producer responsibility bill aims to shift the cost of waste management and recycling away from local governments to companies that sell packaged goods. It was one of the most lobbied on pieces of legislation outside of the budget last session.

Supporters of the bill were hoping it gave the state a chance to make up for a budget that rolled back New York’s landmark climate legislation. Opponents, meanwhile, have pointed to cost concerns ahead of an election focused on affordability.

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Heastie cited cost as the main reason Democrats in the Assembly are hesitant about the bill. However, the bill has 77 co-sponsors, more than the 76 votes needed to pass. Heastie himself said he was a “yes” on the bill. — Marie J. French and Mona Zhang

FROM CITY HALL

Mayor Zohran Mamdani stood by his endorsement of Democratic socialist Darializa Avila Chevalier for congress following her resurfaced tweets.

HER VIEWS THEY ARE A-CHANGIN’: Democratic socialist congressional hopeful Darializa Avila Chevalier is under fire for a spray of inflammatory social media posts about former President Joe Biden, police officers and various other individuals and issues.

But Mamdani — who endorsed Avila Chevalier’s insurgent campaign against Rep. Adriano Espaillat last week — waved off concerns about her online outbursts today.

“She said herself that a lot of these [posts] don’t reflect her views today, and I’m incredibly excited to be supporting her today and her vision for not only a New York City but frankly a United States of America that working people can afford,” Mamdani told reporters this morning at a press conference in Queens.

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Most of Avila Chevalier’s eyebrow-raising social media missives that have emerged in recent days were posted in 2020, when she was 26. As first reported by Playbook, her expletive-riddled messaging included posts calling Biden “a rapist” and “a war criminal” and one in which she wrote former Mayor Bill de Blasio, a Mamdani ally, “hates Black people.”

More recent tweets have also emerged. CNN reported yesterday that Avila Chevalier posted in 2021 that the “only moral way forward” is to “literally” abolish all police, prisons and borders. She also reposted messages calling for the seizure of “all properties from landlords” and the nationalization of all utilities, hospitals and pharmaceutical companies.

Avila Chevalier said in a statement that she has “grown considerably” since she thumbed out the tweets. Chris Sommerfeldt 

FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

Rep. Dan Goldman and former city Comptroller Brad Lander took to the debate stage last night.

CHERRY PICKING: It’s been nearly a day since the debate between Rep. Dan Goldman and former city Comptroller Brad Lander — and they’re taking the fight online.

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Last night, Lander’s campaign posted a debate clip on social media of Goldman saying, “I do take corporate PAC money” and “I have no problem taking money from anyone who wants to give it to me” — a collage taken from a longer Goldman remark in which he explained that he only accepts corporate PAC money in his leadership PAC in response to a question from Lander about it.

“You are right, I do not take any corporate PAC money in my own campaign account to use on my own campaign, and you also are correct that I do take corporate PAC money in my leadership PAC,” Goldman said at the debate. “That leadership PAC cannot be used for me. It cannot be used for my campaign. It is only used to help my colleagues win back the majority, and I have no problem taking money from anyone who wants to give it to me to help the Democrats take back the majority.”

Goldman responded to Lander on X, writing: “Are you seriously arguing that we shouldn’t do literally everything in our power to win back the majority?” In another post, he charged: “You cannot believe anything he says. If he will edit out the most important part to mislead voters, what else is he lying about?”

Since the beginning of last year, Goldman’s leadership PAC has taken tens of thousands of dollars from corporate PACs and disbursed more than $100,000 to Democratic candidates and organizations, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission.

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Lander doubled down Tuesday. “Wow, what Dan Goldman said is he’s perfectly fine taking money from anyone,” he said in a video using the clipped portion of the debate. “This is how we got here, is by a Democratic Party that is backed by billionaires and wealthy special interests … That’s why we need better Democrats, folks who don’t take all that corporate PAC money, who fight for working people.” Madison Fernandez

IN OTHER NEWS

PAC MENTALITY: American Priorities, a super PAC formed to counter pro-Israel groups like AIPAC, has pledged to spend $2 million for Democratic primary candidates Brad Lander, Darializa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdez. (The New York Times)

TAKE IT FROM ME: Former Mayor Eric Adams met with Republican gubernatorial hopeful Bruce Blakeman to offer advice on campaigning in New York City and signaled he may be open to endorsing him. (New York Post)

CAPITOL LOSS: New data reveals population shifts across upstate New York, with Albany losing residents while Saratoga and Warren gained them based on quality of life, housing and employment considerations. (Times Union)

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Australia: Public inquiry overdue for secretive, expensive AUKUS pact

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AUKUS Trilateral Defence Ministers Meeting, UK, Australia, US

AUKUS Trilateral Defence Ministers Meeting, UK, Australia, US

The AUKUS war pact between the US, UK and Australia is expensive, secretive, and the “worst defence decision” since WWII. That’s according to a respected Australian expert, who says a proper inquiry is long overdue. Ian Lowe, an emeritus professor at Griffith University, Queensland, published a recent critique of the deal, saying it was:

Negotiated rapidly and in secret [and that] the AUKUS pact to produce new nuclear-powered submarines is among the most expensive, consequential and opaque deals in British and Australian military history.

Australia probes shadowy defence deal

Australians are holding a public inquiry, a move that Lowe welcomes. The scholar pulled no punches, saying:

The trilateral security partnership between Australia, the UK and the USA was negotiated in secret in 2021 by the leaders of those three countries. Not one of those leaders is still in office […] given that this is by far the most costly defence project in Australian history, there has been no parliamentary scrutiny of the deal in Australia. It continues to be shrouded in secrecy, despite the high stakes and eye-watering projected cost.

He also cited a former Australian general, Michael Smith, who called the arrangement:

The worst defence decision since we relied on Britain to defend us in World War II.

AUKUS has been in the news for two days running. On 1 June, the Canary reported a joint announcement between US, UK and Australian defence chiefs unveiling an underwater drone programme. Underwater AI war drones appear at the heart of the new deal.

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Lowe pointed out the public is very much out of the loop about the scale and scope of AUKUS. So much so that concerned citizens are investigating the pact themselves:

Now a group of former MPs, retired military and naval officers, leading strategists and academics, human rights lawyers and union leaders have joined together to hold a public inquiry. It is being funded by donations from unions, community organisations, faith groups and concerned citizens.

The inquiry “formally launched” on 2 June, explaining that it is:

coordinated by the Australian Peace and Security Forum (APSF) to ensure it is grounded in expertise, independence and evidence-based examination of the issues. The fundamental question being considered is: will AUKUS keep Australia safe – at what cost?

AUKUS risks, costs, and Britain’s bill

Budgets will be a major concern. 

The Australian government has budgeted for spending some A$368 billion – close to £200 billion – for eight submarines.

The boats will supposedly be delivered in the early 2030s:

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Given those timescales and the fact that the submarines have not yet even been designed, there is understandable scepticism about the budgeted final costs.

And it isn’t clear that the submarines would make Australia more secure. Lowe said he’d held a workshop with submariners. The sailors were split:

While they could operate away from base for longer periods and at greater depth than conventional submarines, their size would prevent them operating in the comparatively shallow waters around Australia’s northern coastline, making them less useful for defending our territory.

And there are worries over Australia’s nuclear non-proliferation obligations and the issue of toxic waste: the subs are nuclear powered:

The AUKUS agreement makes Australia responsible for waste management. That poses a huge problem.

Previous Australian attempts to store much lower-level toxic waste than the boats would produce have failed. And Aussie First Nations people have opposed the schemes energetically.

Lowe said Brits should pay attention to the pact. Because they are picking up the UK end of the bill. The boats are being built at Barrow-in-Furness in England’s north-west:

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As a former member of our parliament said, “So many questions, so few answers. The Australian public deserve more than Cold War rhetoric to justify the mind-boggling expenditure”.

He added:

British taxpayers, who will be picking up the tab for the Barrow-in-Furness part of the operation, should be watching the inquiry with interest.

Lowe is right. The UK’s role in AUKUS does need to be made public. PM Keir Starmer may not have started that particular project. But he has certainly lashed the country’s fortunes to the fantasy of military spending bringing growth. The whole militarist edifice need to be examined. And where necessary pulled down.

Featured image via Kin Cheung / Getty Images

By Joe Glenton

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Colombia may soon have a pro-Israel Trumpian president

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Abelardo de la Espriella Candidate for President of Colombia

Abelardo de la Espriella Candidate for President of Colombia

A brash Trump- and Israel-aligned millionaire — Abelardo De la Espriella — has come out ahead in the first round of Colombia’s presidential election. Colombia’s left-wing government has strongly criticised Israel’s genocide and resisted Trump’s attempts to reassert US influence in Latin America. Meanwhile, De la Espriella  has vowed to reverse these results and restore ties with Israel.

Far-right candidate sides with Israel

As Latin America’s fourthlargest economy, this could be a pivotal. Colombia has stood for decades as a key US ally in Latin America. It’s also been one of Israel’s staunchest partners in the region. But its first left-wing president Gustavo Petro has severed ties with Israel over its genocidal crimes in Gaza, and criticised intensifying US crimes against Latin American governments under Donald Trump.

Far-right presidential candidate De la Espriella has pledged to:

De la Espriella lived in Miami before the election campaign, and will probably leave again if he loses. And for years, he had served as a lawyer to prominent criminals. His supporters have been flying the Israeli flag alongside campaign banners. Propagandists at United with Israel! have expressed excitement about:

the possibility of reversing one of the most dramatic diplomatic ruptures in Latin America.

Israeli foreign minister Gideon Sa’ar, meanwhile, has celebrated the momentum behind his “friend“:

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Another rich misogynist for the far-right

De la Espriella has modelled himself after Trump, learning how leaders can successfully exploit algorithms and public anger to amass power. While pushing ‘conservative family values,’ he has been openly misogynisticunapologetically sadistic. And he’s come from outside politics to lead the presidential race relying on:

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aggressive use of social media, support from charismatic Evangelical pastors, and backing from key conservative figures across Latin America.

The mining industry has been pushing people to back him. US politicians have been doing the same, while Ecuador’s far-right president tried to bolster his campaign with a dodgy promise to cancel tariffs.

Despite all the personal disagreements on the Colombian right, they share a common hatred of the left in the end. So it’s unsurprising that they’ve been uniting behind de la Espriella. Fellow far-right candidate Paloma Valencia, for example, wasted no time in backing him to ‘oppose communism’.

Recently, meanwhile, Colombia’s left paid particular attention to a scandal showing the Trump regime, drug traffickers, Israel, and the Latin American far right collaborating to undermine progressives in the region. So the prospect of underhand tactics is absolutely on the cards too.

The peace-building, left-wing alternative

De la Espriella got 43% of the vote in the first round. But main left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda was close behind with 40%. So the left is still very much in the race.

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Cepeda and Petro’s Pacto Histórico coalition faced consistent congressional opposition to its programme. But it still managed to reduce poverty, inflation and unemployment. And its gains in congress in March’s elections suggested it remained popular.

Drug-related violence has long been a pervasive problem in Colombia, and there has been a slight increase coinciding with Trump’s second term in the US. But Cepeda believes in continuing the push for peace rather than escalation, as does his Indigenous running mate, human rights activist Aida Quilcué.

Cepeda has also been critical of Israel’s genocide and apologism for it on Colombia’s right.

In the first round of the presidential vote, de la Espriella predictably (as a colonial cheerleader) did well in largely white and conservative areas. Cepeda, meanwhile, won in majority Black and Indigenous communities.

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Around 24 million Colombians voted, but there are 41 million people who are eligible to vote. And turnout is usually a lot higher in the second round, which in this case will take place on 21 June.

The Latin American election is far from over. Voters on the fence will now need to decide between the brash and divisive de la Espriella and the calmer, more pragmatic Cepeda. The Colombian left, meanwhile, will need to unite and make a strong case for peace in order to stop the far right and its sadistic colonial friends.

Featured image via XX / Getty Images

By Ed Sykes

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Reform councillor pictured in Blackface and Rasta hat

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Reform UK councillor Geoff Shaw in Blackface

Reform UK councillor Geoff Shaw in Blackface

Geoff Shaw is one of the new crop of Reform UK councillors who were elected to office in May 2026. And like many of his new colleagues, Shaw is already attracting all the wrong sort of attention:

Disgraceful

Shaw is one of 11 Reform politicians who won a seat on the Epping Forest District Council. This gave Reform a majority of the 18 seats available. Given the rate at which Reform loses councillors, however, the party may struggle to hold on to that majority — especially with politicians like Reform’s Shaw in the mix.

In the offending picture, Shaw appears to have Black and White Minstrel-style face paint on:

Reporting on the history of the show, David Hendy wrote for the BBC website:

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What’s harder to fathom is why, in an era in which tens of thousands of black people had long been settled in Britain or were trying to make it their home, a BBC which had already managed to reflect something of the reality of black British life… took so little account of the offence caused by white performers blacking-up their faces on a peak-time TV show.

Hendy added:

For the best part of the next twenty years it didn’t seem to occur to anyone in a position of authority at the BBC that the series really was offensive to more than just a few “killjoys”. This failure to even see any racism was a measure of the BBC’s real problem: the archival record of its behind-the-scenes thinking during this period is far from flattering.

On that record, one BBC executive wrote at the time of the show’s airing:

The best advice that could be given to coloured people by their friends would be: “on this issue, we can see your point, by [SIC] in your own best interests, for Heaven’s sake shut up. You are wasting valuable ammunition on a comparatively insignificant target”.”

While it’s obvious to most why it’s offensive to portray Black people as cartoonish caricatures, people like Shaw still aren’t getting it. To make it completely clear, then, we need to go back to the start.

The history of minstrelry

The tradition of Black minstrelry began in the US, and it emerged at a time when Black people lacked the rights of white American citizens. As the National Museum of African American History & Culture reported:

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The first minstrel shows were performed in 1830s New York by white performers with blackened faces (most used burnt cork or shoe polish) and tattered clothing who imitated and mimicked enslaved Africans on Southern plantations. These performances characterized blacks as lazy, ignorant, superstitious, hypersexual, and prone to thievery and cowardice. Thomas Dartmouth Rice, known as the “Father of Minstrelsy,” developed the first popularly known blackface character, “Jim Crow” in 1830. By 1845, the popularity of the minstrel had spawned an entertainment subindustry, manufacturing songs and sheet music, makeup, costumes, as well as a ready-set of stereotypes upon which to build new performances.

In other words, the practice emerged as a means for white Americans to ridicule and denigrate their Black countryfolk. And it persisted because enterprising racists figured out how to turn a profit from it.

You can’t separate the act of Blackface from the history of Blackface. And while you can utter phrases like ‘it’s just face paint‘ or ‘I don’t mean any offence‘, in doing so you sound like a fucking idiot.

Getting away with it

We’re not sure what Shaw’s excuse will be yet, but we’d be very surprised if it contains the word ‘sorry.’ After all, he’s a member of the party which happily tolerated the following:

Featured image via the Canary

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Filton 24 retrials put justice on trial, says Liverpool MP

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Filton 24 activists face retrial

Filton 24 activists face retrial

Labour’s Liverpool Riverside MP Kim Johnson spoke out against the Starmer regime’s determination to convict the ‘Filton 24’ activists. The group had been imprisoned for up to two years awaiting trial.

Starmer and his front-bench drones forced a retrial of the ‘Filton 24’ anti-genocide activists who damaged an Israeli weapons factory. The jury at the first trial had refused to convict them on any charges, despite false evidence from their accusers. The security service-linked judge at the retrial:

• Banned lawyers from telling jurors about their right to “jury equity.”
Banned lawyers and press from noting government pressure for terrorism sentencing despite no terror charges.
Banned lawyers and defendants from discussing anti-genocide motives for targeting the drone factory.

This trial has seen the spotlight focus on the actions of members of the Filton 24.

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Filton 24 retrails and political interference

Now Johnson has told the Canary of her fears for justice and her concerns over political interference in legal process. She said:

The Filton 24 re-trial raises serious questions about transparency and fairness.

We have seen a series of highly unusual developments throughout this case – including restrictions being placed on what can be said in court.

If convicted, these individuals could face terrorism-related sentencing consequences that jurors will not have been told about.

At the same time, senior politicians have continually made public comments about this trial, committing contempt of court, and raising further concerns about the integrity of the process.

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Justice must always be open and transparent. The public has a right to know how these proceedings are being conducted, what juries are being told and what they are not.

These are not fringe concerns. They go to the heart of fair trials, civil liberties and confidence in our justice system.

Of the six re-tried activists, two were acquitted of all charges. Juries rejected all charges alleging any violent intent. However, the four activists convicted of criminal damage will be sentenced on 12 June 2026 at Woolwich Crown Court.

If sentenced under terrorism legislation, the activists face long sentences, tougher barriers to early release, and decades of travel restrictions and having to report to the authorities, even post-release. This is the possible fate for the remaining Filton 24 defendants.

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Their supporters have urged all well-wishers who are able to attend to do so, in order to increase pressure on the intelligence-linked judge to act with restraint. Public mobilisation in support of Filton 24 continues.

Featured image via Barold / the Canary

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Henry Nowak’s death reveals a police force corrupted by wokeness

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Henry Nowak and the savagery of state wokeness

I served for 24 years as a police officer in emergency response, public order, intelligence and counter-terrorism. I saw the best of policing, worked with devoted colleagues and took pride in work that indisputably mattered. I joined the police to make a difference. Duty, camaraderie and justice were not abstract ideals – and I believed that the force made the country safer. But, in the end, disillusionment drove me out.

Over time, I watched the mission of the police being hollowed out by ideological capture. Concern for public trust mutated into a top-down obsession with political correctness and policies that increasingly served political fashions, rather than the enforcement of the law. My personal breaking point came when I understood that the institution itself was eroding the principles I had sworn to defend.

The inevitable, tragic denouement of this ideological transformation came with the murder, in December 2025, of 18-year-old Henry Nowak. Nowak was stabbed four times by a Sikh man named Vickrum Digwa. But, when police arrived at the scene, it was Nowak who was placed in handcuffs. This callous decision was made because Digwa told officers that Nowak was a ‘racist’. Nowak told officers that he’d been stabbed. His last words were reported as, ‘Please, brother, I can’t breathe’. ‘I don’t think you have, mate’, an officer responded. Nowak died at the scene.

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For a long time, British policing stood for impartiality, restraint and equal enforcement of the law. Nobody thinks that now. There has been a litany of cases, some high profile and others not so, where fear of that most career-ending of accusations – ie, of racism – has led to gross injustices.

The most infamous outrage is that of grooming gangs, which have been disproportionately comprised of Pakistani Muslim men. This was not merely a tragedy – it was a disgraceful collapse of policing and child protection. In town after town across the country – in particular areas with large Muslim populations such as Rotherham and Telford – mainly white working-class girls were subjected to appalling sexual exploitation. Police stood by, failed to act or looked the other way. Last year, a report by Baroness Louise Casey found that fear of being labelled racist was one of the primary motivators of police inaction.

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We witnessed a similarly perverse obsession with race in 2021. A teacher at Batley Grammar – an independent state school in West Yorkshire – showed his pupils the same cartoons of Muhammad that were published by the French satirical magazine, Charlie Hebdo, in 2015. The teacher was subject to a terrifying campaign of abuse and intimidation from Muslim parents and organisations, until he was eventually forced into hiding and police protection. Yet again, police caved to the demands of these sectarian bigots in the name of ‘cohesion’. Not one of the teacher’s persecutors was charged.

These events did not emerge out of thin air. For years, police forces have prioritised identity politics above public safety. The death of George Floyd in America in 2020, and the resulting mania of the Black Lives Matter protests, sent this process into overdrive.

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This is a corruption of purpose. Policing is now viewed through social-justice conventions about competing identity groups, producing the notorious ‘two-tier’ mindset. Senior leaders have reinforced that impression with their own bombast. They now routinely describe policing as a vehicle for inclusion and broader social reform. When police leaders sound more like activists than law enforcers, the public is more than entitled to conclude that priorities have been badly warped.

The Independent Office for Police Conduct is now investigating the behaviour of the officers in the Henry Nowak case. But one thing is obvious: responsibility cannot be dumped on frontline officers alone. Culture is set by senior leadership, and senior leadership must answer for the culture that saw its officers handcuff a teenager who was in the process of bleeding to death.

I know full well that policing is hard and that difficult judgements are unavoidable. But difficulty is not an alibi for weakness. The police are not there to placate pressure groups or manage sensitivities – they are there to uphold the law and protect people from intimidation, violence and coercion. When that mission is subordinated to ideological fashion or activist pressure, trust rots. Senior ranks deserve a disproportionate share of the blame, and they must not be spared over the death of Henry Nowak.

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Britain’s policing institutions face a stark choice: continue down a path where social-justice activism eclipses law enforcement, or return to the foundational principles of equal protection under the law. Without that change, public confidence, already at its lowest ebb in memory, will not be recovered.

Paul Birch is a former police officer and counter-terrorism specialist. You can read his Substack here.

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