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How the Greens became the nasty party

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Trump Is Being ‘Humiliated’ By Iran And US Has No Exit Plan, Friedrich Merz Says

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Trump Is Being 'Humiliated' By Iran And US Has No Exit Plan, Friedrich Merz Says

Germany’s chancellor has declared America is being “humiliated” by Iran over negotiations to end the war in the country and reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz.

Friedrich Merz said he “can’t tell what strategic exit the Americans are pursuing” exactly two months after the conflict began.

A ceasefire is currently in place, but there is little prospect of an imminent peace deal being reached.

Meanwhile, the key waterway the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, while the US is blockading Iran’s ports.

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Donald Trump last week called off planned peace talks which had been due to be held between American and Iranian officials in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, insisting they were a waste of time.

Posting on Truth Social, he said: “If they want to talk, all they have to do is call.”

But Merz said: “At the moment I can’t tell what strategic exit the Americans are pursuing, especially since the Iranians are obviously negotiating very skilfully, or perhaps very skilfully refusing to negotiate, and are letting the Americans travel to Islamabad only to send them back home empty-handed.

“An entire nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership, especially by these so called Revolutionary Guards.”

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German Chancellor Friedrich Merz says the U.S. is being “humiliated” by Iran’s leadership, and suggests the Trump administration is getting outmaneuvered at the negotiating table by Tehran. pic.twitter.com/vcC0ELVRvy

— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) April 27, 2026

Lyse Doucet, the BBC’s highly-respected chief international correspondent, has said any peace deal “will take a long time” to be reached because “neither side wants to back down”.

Subscribe to Commons People, the podcast that makes politics easy. Every week, Kevin Schofield and Kate Nicholson unpack the week’s biggest stories to keep you informed. Join us for straightforward analysis of what’s going on at Westminster.

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Fury vs Joshua: This long-awaited heavyweight battle will define a generation

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Anthony Joshua (left) and Tyson Fury (right) hold their gloves up in a defence stance, bare chested, in separate images that have been edited to be side by side

Anthony Joshua (left) and Tyson Fury (right) hold their gloves up in a defence stance, bare chested, in separate images that have been edited to be side by side

The all‑British super fight is now confirmed for 2026 as two former boxing champions collide on home soil in a career‑defining clash of size, skill and legacy.

The long-anticipated all-British heavyweight showdown between Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua is officially on.

Boxing promoter, Eddie Hearn, has declared the bout “signed, sealed and delivered”. Meanwhile, both fighters have publicly confirmed contracts are in place, ending years of speculation and near-misses that have kept fans waiting for a true domestic mega-fight.

When and where for Fury vs Joshua boxing match?

Precise details are being finalised, but the fight is expected to take place later in 2026, with several reports pointing to the fourth quarter as the most likely window.

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Organisers are targeting a UK stadium setting capable of holding tens of thousands of fans. Venues such as Wembley Stadium and the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium are obvious frontrunners given their record of accomplishment hosting major boxing events.

The plan is clearly to stage the bout on home soil and on the biggest possible stage.

The road to the ring

Both fighters arrive at this meeting with complicated recent histories that explain why the fight took so long to materialise.

Fury’s career has been punctuated by long breaks, a high-profile rivalry with Deontay Wilder, and a later defeat to Oleksandr Usyk that preceded a brief retirement.

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Joshua’s path included Olympic glory, world titles, losses to Usyk and a series of comeback fights.

The timing finally aligned after Fury’s comeback victory over Arslanbek Makhmudov and Joshua’s return-to-action plans, allowing promoters to stitch together a deal that had eluded them for years.

Tune-up fights and training camps

Anthony Joshua has a tune-up bout in July. Organisers view this as a necessary step to sharpen his timing and rebuild momentum after a mixed run of recent opponents.

Joshua has also been training with Oleksandr Usyk and his team, which is a notable development given Usyk’s own victories over both Joshua and Fury. The collaboration is being framed as a tactical advantage for AJ.

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Fury, meanwhile, has mixed his own training arrangements, bringing back coach SugarHill Steward into his camp shortly before his comeback fight. Fury has often emphasised a degree of self-direction in his preparations.

How each man looks in the ring after their respective camps will be a major factor in assessing the outcome.

High stakes

This is a late-career clash for both men, which adds unpredictability. Injuries, training setbacks or an upset in a tune-up fight could delay or alter the matchup.

Boxing’s history is full of last-minute changes. Promoters are mindful that even with contracts signed, the fight’s timing and staging remain vulnerable to the usual risks, injuries in camp, failed medicals or unforeseen personal issues.

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Still, the commercial and sporting incentives to make the fight happen are enormous, so expect organisers to push hard to keep the schedule on track.

Beyond the ropes

This fight is more than a sporting contest; it’s a global entertainment event.

Reports indicate that Saudi financier Turki Alalshikh, who is backing the event, has stipulated a major musical performance as part of the show. Dua Lipa is a proposed headliner.

That kind of crossover entertainment underlines the scale of the production being planned, and the desire to make the event a cultural moment as well as a boxing match.

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Which boxer has the edge?

Predicting a winner is difficult and depends on multiple variables: ring rust, physical condition, tactical adjustments, and how each fighter’s style matches up on the night.

Fury’s size, movement and unorthodox style have troubled elite opponents. Meanwhile Joshua’s power, athleticism and improved boxing IQ under different camps make him dangerous at any stage.

Both men have had recent setbacks and long layoffs at various points, which levels the playing field in some respects.

Ultimately, the fight will come down to who executes their game plan under pressure and who can impose their strengths while minimising vulnerabilities.

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What boxing fans should watch next

Fans should watch for official announcements on the date and venue, confirmation of undercard fights, and the outcome of Joshua’s July tune-up bout, which will shape expectations heading into the main event.

Training footage, sparring reports and any pre-fight press tours will also offer clues about form and mindset.

Given the commercial muscle behind the promotion, expect a global broadcast plan and a spectacle designed to attract casual viewers as well as hardcore boxing fans.

This fight has been on the cards for many years. Finally, we will see a convergence of star power, national interest and commercial backing.

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When Fury and Joshua meet, it will be more than a heavyweight contest. This will be a defining moment for British boxing and a major event on the 2026 sporting calendar.

Featured image via Getty Images

By Faz Ali

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Indoor Vs Outdoor Cat Lifespans, Explained

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Indoor Vs Outdoor Cat Lifespans, Explained

In 2025, there were about 10.2 million pet cats in the UK; almost a quarter of all UK households (24%) have a feline friend.

But, per Cats Protection, 3% of these were injured by cars outside the home, and the most common cause for injury was fights among other cats in the great outdoors (15%).

Perhaps it’s no surprise, then, that a new paper has suggested the best way to help our cats live longer is the simple, free technique of keeping them indoors.

Why might keeping cats indoors help them live longer?

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Roaming cats may die as many as 10 years before their indoor peers, the researchers wrote.

This is partly because outdoor cats are exposed to “substantial risks of traumatic injury and infectious disease, plus lesser risks of poisoning and abuse”.

They added that the “cohort of outdoor cats has approximately 70-80% of the lifespan of the cohort of indoor cats”, and that chronic conditions created by e.g. injuries sustained outdoors can create expensive vet bills for owners.

Additionally, they found that the quality of life of indoor cats was generally better than that of outdoor cats.

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Even their bond with their owners tended to be more satisfying and fulfilling.

That’s not to say being indoors has no downsides fior cats

The researchers say this doesn’t mean keeping your cat indoors carries zero risk.

“Containment,” they say, may lead to “obesity, diabetes or behavioural problems… Contained cats are also unlikely to express all cat behaviour”.

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And though solutions including “environmental enrichment, exercise, and correct feeding, plus containment logistics,” are plentiful, they “may strain owners’ time and finances”.

But, they add, on balance, it’s probably still the better choice.

They ended their paper, “We conclude that, based on health and welfare, the advantages of containment are considerable and the disadvantages often remediable.”

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Michael Jackson Biopic Will Get ‘At Least’ One Sequel, Studio Boss Claims

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Michael Jackson Biopic Will Get 'At Least' One Sequel, Studio Boss Claims

As speculation mounts about a potential sequel to the new Michael Jackson biopic, the head of the movie studio behind it has made a bold claim about its future.

Much has been made of the fact that the new film Michael doesn’t address the many allegations of child sexual abuse levelled against the Billie Jean singer in his lifetime, with several prominent figures attached to the movie claiming this could form the basis of a sequel.

Speaking to Business Insider, Lionsgate chief Adam Fogelson said frankly: “Look, there’s at least one more movie.”

He continued: “Just speaking less as an employee of Lionsgate and more as a person who has spent a lot of time in the movie business, I was always excited by the possibility that you could make a more complete and satisfying telling of Michael’s story if you weren’t confined to only one movie.”

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Originally, filmmaker Antoine Fuqua had intended to include scenes referencing the allegations, and even shot a sequence of the police raiding Jackson’s Neverland ranch.

However, when production was close to being complete, the Jackson estate discovered a legal clause in one accuser’s settlement, forbidding his name or likeness from ever being featured in a film.

As a result, Fuqua had to bring back the cast and crew for costly reshoots, though Fogelson said some of this footage could still see the light of day.

“From my perspective, it’s important to try to give the audience an authentic understanding of who Michael Jackson was,” he added.

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“So I think that that can be done with or without some of what was in the third act that had to be scrapped.”

During an interview published over the weekend, Fuqua was asked if it was true that around “a third of footage” already recorded could go into a potential Michael follow-up, to which he confirmed: “Absolutely.”

He also said last week that if a Michael sequel were to go ahead, he’d hope to not “sensationalise” the stories and controversies surrounding the Grammy winner in his later years.

“Being a movie star, rock star, superstar like Michael, there’s enough of that already,” he claimed. “You don’t have to do much. But I think the key is, like, who was he as a human being?

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Michael had a mauling from critics in the lead-up to its release, but it’s seemingly fared much better with audiences.

As well as making more money in its opening weekend than any biopic before it, it holds an audience score on Rotten Tomatoes of 97%, and an average Letterboxd rating of 3.6 stars of a possible five.

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Cynthia Erivo Stops Dracula Performance After Spotting An Audience Member Filming

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Cynthia Erivo Stops Dracula Performance After Spotting An Audience Member Filming

Cynthia Erivo brought a live performance of Dracula to an abrupt halt on Monday night, after spotting an audience member filming in the audience.

The show was then paused, with one audience member later sharing footage they filmed during this break, questioning: “Whatever happened to theatre etiquette?”

Metro also cited another audience member who claimed that the filming patron was “kicked out” by security, with the Oscar nominee returning to the stage to resume her performance after a 10-minute break.

HuffPost UK has contacted representatives for Cynthia Erivo and the Noel Coward Theatre, where Dracula is currently playing, for comment.

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And just this month, Lesley Manville took issue with the current trend that has seen theatres allowing guests to film the curtain call on their phones.

“It’s theatre – let’s preserve it!” she told Radio 4. “We are all in this room, we are telling you a story, you’re listening – clap or don’t clap, but don’t just stick your phone in our face. I find it insulting.”

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Top Civil Servant’s Insights On Mandelson Appointment

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Top Civil Servant's Insights On Mandelson Appointment

Sir Philip Barton became the latest former civil servant to give evidence to the Foreign Affairs Committee on Peter Mandelson’s appointment as UK ambassador to the United States.

The former permanent secretary at the Foreign Office was quizzed on how the shamed former Labour peer got the role – and whether the rules were followed.

Barton left his post on January 19, 2025, less than a month before Mandelson took up his job in Washington DC, but had been closely involved in the appointment process before then.

Here are the five key things we learned from his 90-minute evidence session.

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1) He Had Concerns About Mandelson’s Jeffrey Epstein links

Sir Philip told the committee that he was worried that Mandelson’s known links to the convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein would prove problematic.

Asked what concerns he had about the decision by Keir Starmer to give the then Labour peer the plum diplomatic post, he said: “I think it was very much … around the possibility of his known connection to Epstein, causing an issue subsequently.

“Obviously, I didn’t know what was actually going to happen, because Epstein was such a toxic, hot potato subject in US politics itself, including in the election campaign.”

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Mandelson was sacked by the prime minister after just six months in the job after further revelations emerged about the extent of his friendship with Epstein.

2) The Cabinet Office Did Not Think Mandelson Needed Top Security Clearance

The Guardian revealed nearly two weeks ago that UK Security Vetting had recommended Mandelson not be given “developed vetting” status, which allows the holders to access top secret government information.

However, he was granted it by Sir Olly Robbins, Sir Philip’s successor as permanent secretary in the Foreign Office.

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Giving evidence, Sir Philip confirmed that the Cabinet Office at first did not think that was a prerequisite for Mandelson to take up his ambassadorial role.

He said: “The Cabinet Office initially said that as Mandelson was ‘a fit and proper person’ as a member of the House of Lords, he did not require developed vetting.

“To be honest with you, I thought that was odd and insufficient. To do the job effectively you have to be party to some of the deepest secrets that the UK government holds.”

He said the Cabinet Office later changed its view.

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3) No.10 Was ‘Uninterested’ In Mandelson’s Security Status

Sir Philip was asked if No.10 had a “dismissive” attitude towards Mandelson’s security status, as was claimed last week by Sir Olly Robbins.

He replied: “I wouldn’t use the word dismissive. The word I would use is uninterested.

“I think people wanted to know that all the practical steps required for Mandelson to arrive in Washington on or around the [Trump] inauguration date. It needed to be completed at pace, as it were.”

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4) The Foreign Office Was ‘Absolutely’ Under Pressure To Get Mandelson In Place

Sir Olly Robbins told the committee last Tuesday that there was “constant pressure” on Foreign Office officials from No.10 to get Mandelson in place.

The PM appeared to contradict those comments at prime minister’s questions the following day, when he insisted no pressure was applied.

Asked whether his department was under pressure, Sir Philip said: “There’s two possible questions here. Question one is, was there pressure on the substance of the [developed vetting] case?

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“Question two is, was there pressure to get the [developed vetting] case done in a particular timeframe?

“Answer one is, during my tenure, I was not aware of any pressure on the substance of the Mandelson [developed vetting] case.

“Question two, was there pressure? Absolutely.”

He added: “I don’t think anyone could have been in any doubt in the department working on this that there was pressure to get everything done as quickly as possible.”

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5) Starmer’s Claim That ‘Due Process’ Was Followed Thrown Into Doubt

The PM faces a crunch Commons vote on Tuesday over whether he should be investigated for claiming “due process” was followed in Mandelson’s appointment.

The Tories say that is untrue and Starmer has misled the Commons.

Asked whether due process had been followed, Sir Philip refused to back the PM and instead said he would “dodge” the question.

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“I think the processes the [Foreign Office] … followed up until I stood down on Sunday, 19th January, that was proper process, done at pace as we were asked,” he said.

However, he did say it was “unusual” for Mandelson’s appointment to be announced before security vetting was carried out.

6) Morgan McSweeney Did Not Tell Him To ‘Just Fucking Approve It’

Sir Philip denied reports that Morgan McSweeney, the PM’s chief of staff at the time of Mandelson’s appointment, had told him to “just fucking approve it”.

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He said: “I didn’t receive any direct calls from the chief of staff during my time as permanent under-secretary. So there was no call at all.

“My interactions were always when others were present in a general meeting, there weren’t very many of those either.”

Sir Philip added: ”“I’ve really racked my brains and I cannot recall Morgan McSweeney swearing in a meeting at me, or indeed just in in general.

“So I don’t see any substance in that part of it and I think it’s important I say that this morning, given how many people have come to think that might be true.”

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Subscribe to Commons People, the podcast that makes politics easy. Every week, Kevin Schofield and Kate Nicholson unpack the week’s biggest stories to keep you informed. Join us for straightforward analysis of what’s going on at Westminster.

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Hypocrite Starmer calls transparency vote a ‘stunt’

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Cathy Newman talking to Keir Starmer

Cathy Newman talking to Keir Starmer

PM Keir Starmer stands accused of multiple instances of misleading Parliament. This is why his opponents tabled a vote to try and force a probe into his behaviour – a tactic Starmer himself once deployed against then-PM Boris Johnson:

Stunted ambitions

Dan Hodges of the Daily Mail is known for having a mixture of very bad and very good opinions (mostly trending bad, to be fair). On the issue of Starmer’s many deceptions, he’s been trending spot-on, and has handily compiled the following list:

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In summary, Hodge’s list includes Starmer misleading Parliament by telling the House that:

  • Due process was followed when Mandelson was hired as ambassador to the US (it wasn’t).
  • Pressure was not applied to civil servants vetting Mandelson (it was).

Starmer also:

Boris Johnson

In 2022, then-PM Boris Johnson was having his own transparency crisis. As the Guardian reported at the time:

MPs will vote on Thursday on a Labour motion that would trigger an investigation by the House of Commons privileges committee into whether Johnson misled parliament over a string of lockdown-busting parties in Downing Street.

Starmer urged Conservative MPs to seize the opportunity to get rid of Johnson and “bring decency, honesty and integrity back into our politics”.

Johnson would eventually give the investigation the go-ahead, leading to his downfall. Given this, you can see why Starmer would want to avoid allowing any such probe to go ahead.

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Starmer also described Johnson as:

a man without shame

While we don’t disagree with the sentiment, Johnson did at least agree to an investigation. This means Starmer is even more shameless than Johnson by his own standards.

Case to answer, Starmer

As Hodges has shown, there’s a strong argument for probing Starmer’s behaviour. Despite this, the man himself is whipping his party to prevent them voting for transparency:

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Starmer might cling on for another day with tactics like this, but the writing is on the wall.

Featured image via Sky News

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By Willem Moore

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Madonna And Sabrina Carpenter Announce Release Date For Bring Your Love Duet

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Madonna And Sabrina Carpenter Announce Release Date For Bring Your Love Duet

Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter have announced that the wait is almost over before fans get to stream their new duet at their leisure.

On Monday afternoon, the pair confirmed that Bring Your Love would get its official release later this week, and would be available to stream from 11pm on Thursday 30 April.

“We’ve got something to say about it,” they teased on Instagram, quoting the song’s lyrics.

Following her surprise performance at Coachella, Madonna immediately released Confessions II cut I Feel So Free to streaming services, which will serve as the album’s opening track.

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She also teased more songs from the album during a surprise appearance at her producer Stuart Price’s DJ set at the West Hollywood club The Abbey over the weekend.

Confessions II will be released worldwide on Friday 3 July.

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Politics Home | No 10 Was “Uninterested” In Mandelson Security Vetting, Says Ex Foreign Office Chief

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No 10 Was 'Uninterested' In Mandelson Security Vetting, Says Ex Foreign Office Chief
No 10 Was 'Uninterested' In Mandelson Security Vetting, Says Ex Foreign Office Chief

Former foreign office permanent secretary Philip Barton appeared before MPs in parliament on Tuesday. (Alamy)


4 min read

The former head civil servant in the Foreign Office has told MPs that Downing Street showed an “uninterested” attitude towards the security vetting of Lord Mandelson.

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Speaking to the Foreign Affairs Select Committee on Tuesday morning, Sir Philip Barton also said he felt at the time of Mandelson’s appointment as UK ambassador to the US that it “could become a problem” given the peer’s links to paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein.

Barton, who left his post shortly after Labour entered government, said there was pressure from No 10 to complete Mandelson’s appointment as soon as possible, but sought to stress that there was no pressure on the “substance” of Mandelson’s vetting.

Asked whether he would agree with his successor in the Foreign Office, Sir Olly Robbins, who last week told the same committee that No 10 was “dismissive” about Mandelson’s vetting, Barton said: “I wouldn’t use the word dismissive, the word I would use is uninterested.”

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He said that there was a lack of “interest” in issues highlighted by the vetting process.

“No one said to me: ‘Look, Philip, the Prime Minister knows there’s some risks around this, can you really, really make sure that the vetting is done rigorously?’” he told MPs. 

“It is always rigorous anyway”, he continued. “But that wasn’t the sort of thing being communicated. The sort of thing was: ‘Fine, he needs vetting, make sure it’s done in time’.”

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Barton is the latest senior figure to intervene in the saga surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s decision to appoint Mandelson as UK ambassador to Washington.

Opposition parties have accused Starmer of misleading Parliament over whether due process was followed in the appointment process, as well as the question of what pressure Downing Street put on the Foreign Office to formalise Mandelson’s appointment.

Later today, MPs will vote on whether to refer the Prime Minister to the Privileges Committee on the question of whether he has misled Parliament.

Last week, Robbins — who was sacked by Starmer as Foreign Office permanent secretary over his role in the affair — said UK Security Vetting felt the Mandelson case was “borderline” and was “leaning towards recommending that clearance be denied”, but that the Foreign Office deemed the risks manageable. He sought to stress that Mandelson did not ‘fail’ vetting.

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However, in evidence that put more pressure on Starmer’s judgement, Robbins said the Foreign Office had faced “constant pressure” from the No 10 private office to process Mandelson’s appointment as soon as possible.

Speaking this morning, Barton said there was “pressure to get everything done as soon as possible” because No 10 wanted Mandelson in place in time for the start of the second Donald Trump presidency, adding that “the die was cast”. However, he sought to stress to MPs that there was no pressure on the substance of that vetting case.

Barton also denied that he received a call from Morgan McSweeney, who was then the chief of staff to Starmer, urging him to complete Mandelson’s appointment quickly.

“I didn’t receive any direct calls from the chief of staff during my time as permanent under secretary,” said Barton. 

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“I’ve really racked my brains, and I cannot recall Morgan McSweeney swearing in a meeting at me.” 

This is a reference to reports that McSweeney told Barton to “just fucking approve” Mandelson’s appointment to Washington.

Barton admitted to the committee that he felt “conflicted” over not being consulted on Mandelson’s appointment, adding he believed it is “reasonable” to expect the head of the diplomatic service to be consulted.

“On the face of it, it is reasonable for the head of the foreign office to be involved in the thinking around what is our major, top, bilateral ambassador post,” said Barton.

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“On the other hand, given clearly the Prime Minister was deciding to make a political appointment, it is also reasonable that civil servants would not be directly involved in discussions around what is a political appointment. Because, in the end, that is a matter for elected politicians.”

Barton also said he felt it was “off and insufficient” that the Cabinet Office said Mandelson didn’t require security vetting before being appointed. 

He told MPs that people around Trump felt “blindsided” by the decision to appoint Mandelson, rather than continue with Karen Pierce as UK ambassador to the US.

 

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What steel tariffs reveal about the cost of going it alone

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What steel tariffs reveal about the cost of going it alone

Jun Du and Oleksandr Shepotylo argue that, with the UK and EU set to impose major new tariffs on steel imports, the UK would benefit from seeking to coordinate its trade defence policy with the EU. 

In March 2026, the UK government announced its new Steel Strategy. From July, tariff-free quotas for steel imports will be cut by 60% and a 50% tariff will apply to above-quota imports — matching US tariffs imposed last year. The US first raised steel tariffs to 25%, then doubled them to 50%. The UK was exempted from the doubling of the rate under the Economic Prosperity Deal.

The UK’s aim is to shield domestic producers from a global market awash with overcapacity, now estimated at 602m tonnes and forecast to reach 721m by 2027. But the policy matters well beyond the steel sector itself. It is being implemented at precisely the moment the UK–EU relationship is being renegotiated, and at the moment the European Commission is proposing to double its own out-of-quota steel tariff to 50% and cut tariff-free quotas by nearly half. Around 80% of UK steel exports are destined for European markets, so the EU decision is potentially more consequential for UK producers than the US one. How the UK should position itself within – or outside – that emerging European regime is a live question, and the evidence now exists to answer it.

In a new paper from the Centre for Business Prosperity at Aston University, we estimate the effects of the 2025 US steel and aluminium tariffs using large-scale product-level trade data and employ the Kiel Institute’s general equilibrium model for the policy impact evaluation.

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US steel imports fell by around 20%, aluminium by around 10%, and the doubling of tariffs doubled the trade shock. But the costs did not remain at the border, with 70-80% of the tariff hit passed through to downstream buyers, including the firms that use steel as an input. US consumer prices for the covered products rose by approximately 27% for steel and 32% for aluminium.

The impact on UK exports was far from uniform across products. Aerospace components alone account for 43% of UK steel and aluminium exports to the US, and absorbed the shock almost entirely through volumes, with prices held firm by long-term contracts and certification requirements. Automotive inputs followed a similar pattern. Commoditised products, such as hot-rolled coil and steel plate, by contrast, adjusted by cutting their margins by 21-23%, with foreign exporters accepting lower profits to hold on to market share.

There is also evidence that the tariffs chilled new trade relationships without destroying established ones. The probability of a new bilateral, UK-US export relationship forming fell by 0.8 percentage points, while exit rates among existing exporters were essentially unchanged. The damage is done quietly, in the trade that never begins.

These findings matter for the UK because the government is about to impose a tariff of the same magnitude on its own border. The 300,000 workers in downstream steel-using industries (automotive, aerospace, construction, fabricated metals) outnumber the 30,000 in primary steelmaking by ten to one. It is the downstream industries who will absorb the cost, through higher input prices and, ultimately, through prices in the shops. This is a cost-of-living issue as much as an industrial one.

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The government is three months from implementing a 50% above-quota tariff with no published impact assessment. The pass-through estimates, the scale of downstream exposure, and the chilling effect on new exporters ought to feature in any serious evaluation.

The more striking finding for the UK–EU debate comes from the general equilibrium modelling. Under current conditions (the UK on a 25% US tariff, most competitors on 50%), preferential access to the US market is worth approximately £482m a year. That is a real gain. But it is structurally fragile: it exists only while the differential holds, it is subject to US review, and it could be withdrawn at any point.

More importantly, the modelling shows what happens when the EU acts. When the EU imposes its own steel tariffs alongside the US, the UK’s gain edges down. Coordinated European trade policy provides a cushion the UK cannot replicate alone.

The UK-EU ‘reset’ has so far delivered limited economic results, and the Prime Minister and Chancellor have made clear that they want to pursue greater alignment with the single market at the next UK-EU summit, in the hope of delivering greater economic benefits.

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Much of the discussion around alignment focuses on regulatory standards: SPS, product safety, emissions trading. Trade defence policy is at least as consequential, and inseparable from the regulatory alignment now being discussed for industrial goods such as cars and chemicals. The steel evidence suggests that, in a world of escalating tariff conflicts between major blocs, a key question for a medium-sized economy is whether it can afford to conduct trade defence policy alone, absorbing the costs without the benefit of collective action. The chilling effect on new trade relationships means the answer is being shaped now, invisibly, in the export links that never form.

The case for coordination, though, does not rest solely on cushioning against shared losses. The UK and the EU have complementary strengths in technology, scale and industrial capability that, combined, could build competitive advantage rather than merely defend against disruption. In a geoeconomic landscape where the US, China and the EU are all reshaping trade around strategic interests, the opportunity is to develop joint approaches to competitiveness. That means shared investment in low-carbon steel production and coordinated standards that create scale advantages, alongside trade instruments designed to build industries rather than simply protect them. This is a different proposition from alignment as damage limitation and is the conversation the reset ought to be having.

None of this is to dismiss the strategic case for domestic steel capacity — with production at its lowest since the 1930s, there is a legitimate argument for maintaining capability for defence, infrastructure and the energy transition. But our results price that choice: they show what downstream sectors and consumers will pay for tariff-based protection, so that the strategic decision can be made with its costs in view.

Steel is an unusually clean test case. What it reveals is that the costs of going it alone are quantifiable, and that the gains from coordination could extend well beyond loss reduction — if the ambition is there to pursue them.

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By Jun Du, Professor of Economics at Aston Business School and Founding Director of the Centre for Business Prosperity, and Oleksandr Shepotylo, Associate Professor at Aston Business School. The paper, ‘Steel and aluminium tariffs: impact assessment for the US, UK, and broader markets’, is co-authored with Yujie Shi and Lisha He.

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