Dr Stephen Goss is a freelance historian, lectures in history and politics in London, and is a Conservative councillor in Reading.

The big story from Northern Ireland this month is the truly remarkable success of Belfast hosting Fleadh Cheoil na hÉireann this year. ‘The Fleadh’, as it is known, is an annual music festival which has been running for 75 years. A different village, town, or city on the island of Ireland is selected to host the festivities which celebrate and promote traditional Irish music and dance. In a similar way to the Edinburgh Fringe now overshadowing the Edinburgh International Festival, the ‘craic agus ceol’ surrounding the Fleadh has eclipsed the formal competitions at its heart.

This was its first visit to Belfast. The organisers expected 800,000 people; instead, footfall of over 1.6 million visitors has been recorded over the eight days. To put this perspective, the population of Northern Ireland is approximately 1.9 million.

Yet, the statistics scarcely convey the atmosphere.

Serendipitously I was home in Belfast while the Fleadh was taking place. Streets were cleaned and pedestrianised, businesses entered into the spirit of the event, and music and drinking spilled out from pubs and venues into the public realm. A city usually divided and dysfunctional showed it could be relaxed and welcoming. A triumph for Belfast, its economy and tourism, it sets the stage for what will hopefully be an even greater success when the Fleadh returns to the city next August.

However, such is the nature of Northern Irish politics, the event could not escape attempts to force it into Northern Ireland’s familiar zero-sum narrative. I have written previously about nationalist contrived outrage, and it raised its ugly head again on this occasion. Some nationalist and republican commentators seemed invested in unionist rejection. Jude Collins predicted there would be ‘distressingly few Protestants/unionists availing themselves of the chance to hear the best in Irish music, dance and culture’. There is too much bigotry, dismissiveness, and sectarianism in this assessment from the Belfast republican press for me to summarise here. The general assumption was that unionists and loyalists would boycott, protest, or at best ignore the Fleadh. Any that held their nose and engaged with it were to be considered doing so for purely cynical, political reasons.

While Jim Allister and the Traditional Unionist Voice raised concerns over the cost and disruption caused by the event (and objections to a Post Office selling Irish tricolours), unionism in fact embraced the Fleadh. Speaker of the Northern Ireland Assembly, Edwin Poots MLA (briefly DUP Leader; the DUP’s Liz Truss), stated at an event in Stormont to welcome performers to the Fleadh in Belfast:

‘Musical traditions flow through the veins of the community across Northern Ireland… This is an opportunity to celebrate all the different traditions that have been passed from one generation to the next and to share them with new audiences, and for Belfast to open its doors and demonstrate the warmth of its welcome’.

The Deputy First Minister, DUP MLA Emma Little-Pengelly spoke from the main stage of the Fleadh. She said: ‘Respecting another’s culture never diminishes our own… Confidence in who we are gives us the freedom to celebrate the richness of others…. Culture need not divide us’. She spoke of a ‘cultural heritage that belongs to no single tradition. A cultural future that certainly does not’.

Those were not merely gracious words delivered from a platform. Loyalist marching bands were not left at the festival’s edge, either literally or figuratively. The Belfast Bands Forum was represented on the organising committee and presented an Ulster Bands Showcase at the Titanic Slipways. Flute and accordion bands, Lambeg drummers, pipe bands, and Highland dancers all took part. The strongest rebuttal to the caricatures came from the welcome these musicians received. The Shankill Road Defenders were applauded not only at the City Hall, but Band member Dr. Gordon Ramsey described the reception as ‘extraordinary’. He said they had received substantially more support than criticism from within their own community.

This was not loyalism holding its nose, nor unionism cynically trying to appropriate somebody else’s celebration; it was confident participation. As Belfast Bands Forum chairman Darren Leighton observed:

‘One of the most important things for us has been challenging some of the stereotypes around the marching band community… we simply put our musicians and our culture on the stage and allowed people to experience it for themselves… Our musicians stepped outside their comfort zones this week, performed in front of new audiences and were welcomed everywhere they went’.

Despite the assumptions of many, unionism was far from outraged at the Fleadh and its success. However, this month has seen indignation within unionism. With the DUP in turmoil over who knew what and said nothing about the now convicted Jeffrey Donaldson, for the first time in decades, the Ulster Unionists have overtaken the DUP in the polls.

Therefore, it seemed like typical Ulster Unionist self-sabotage when last week the party leader fell out with his Health Minister. Leader Jon Burrows publicly declared that emergency general surgery must remain at Causeway Hospital, placing himself directly at odds with former leader (twice) Mike Nesbitt. Although Nesbitt had not yet taken a final decision, he accused Burrows of imposing a new ‘red line’ and objected to discovering his leader’s position from the media.

This comes after another former leader of the Ulster Unionists, Doug Beattie, resigned from the party in May. So, was the outrage of both Party Leader and Health Minister typical – or contrived? Although located in East Londonderry, Causeway Hospital also serves communities within Burrows’s own North Antrim constituency. Burrows was co-opted as North Antrim MLA only last August. He has yet to face the electorate. Defending a hospital serving communities across his north-coast hinterland allows him to demonstrate ahead of next May’s Assembly election that he is more than a drop-in. It presents him as a decisive leader, willing to challenge the health bureaucracy on behalf of patients, and a representative who will do whatever it takes to defend the interests of his constituents.

The appointment of Lagan Valley MLA Robbie Butler as Nesbitt’s successor may be more strategically significant still. Butler was the alternative for party leader earlier this year. Giving him Northern Ireland’s most prominent ministerial portfolio provides a platform from which to build a much larger public profile. Butler has yet to be drawn on the decision he will make regarding the Causeway Hospital.

DUP turmoil allowed Alliance’s Sorcha Eastwood to snatch Lagan Valley from unionism at the 2024 general election. The same poll that puts the Ulster Unionists ahead of the DUP has Alliance at a five-year low of ten per cent. With the Ulster Unionists now polling ahead of both parties, Butler has an opportunity to establish himself as the principal challenger to Eastwood.

The Fleadh demonstrated how Northern Ireland’s familiar assumptions should not be taken as certainties. Loyalists were expected to sulk outside; instead, they marched onto the stage and were warmly applauded. If Burrows is returned at next May’s Assembly election with his own mandate, and Butler emerges as the strongest challenger for Donaldson’s former Westminster fortress of Lagan Valley, what looked like the first shots of another Ulster Unionist civil war may instead prove to have been the opening salvo of its long overdue electoral recovery.

Thinking positively about ageing has been linked to a longer life

This isn’t to say you only need to think positively about ageing

First though, let us imagine a UK government that announced it planned to merge the combined authorities of Greater Manchester, the Liverpool City Region, South Yorkshire, York & North Yorkshire, and the North East into a single super-authority – with one democratically elected mayor overseeing officials seeking to engender better outcomes for a combined population of 9 million people. Imagine that the 29 councils, and their democratically elected administrations that make up those areas being told they will no longer have any formal role in the regional authority’s strategic decision-making. Such a plan would rightly be ridiculed. 

But that scenario is not an unreasonable description of London’s current system of governance – a consequence of the thinking and horse-trading which took place at the end of the last century when London devolution was being established. 

Getting London’s rewiring right this time matters.

For good and bad reasons, London remains the UK’s economic powerhouse. It has lifted the rest of the UK out of every recession since the British credit crisis of 1772–1773 (that’s the crash that arguably led to the American Revolution). 

London is Western Europe’s biggest city – roughly 15 times larger in area and four times more populous than the City of Paris, twice the landmass of New York City. Indeed, of the 27 European Union states, 13 have smaller national populations than London. 

Meanwhile more than 300 languages are spoken by Londoners, making it one of the most linguistically diverse cities in the world. And London tops almost every list of the world’s most important cities.

In this context, London’s 32 boroughs and the Corporation of London are a huge strength. Each electing representatives and leaders who know and care more about their proudly diverse places than any unelected official in a centralised authority ever could. Each demonstrating the innovation and drive that contributes to our Greater London.

In Sir Sadiq Khan, London has a Mayor that is an inspiration to people around the world – the very epitome of our forward thinking, progressive city – leading London with ambition.

So the questions are: how can we improve in such a way as to bring these strengths together; and how can we give London a system that better allows us to rise to the challenge of this fast-moving age while making sure London’s democracy delivers for generations to come? 

London Councils has started the work to answer these questions. It’s working cross-party with partners from across London and drawing on the evidence and experiences of elsewhere. 

There are historical precedents that can point the way. Almost 80 years ago the victorious powers gave West Germany a constitution which still serves its successor well today. 

Objectivity alongside principles such as subsidiarity and ensuring government is agile, responsive, representative of place and minimises disruption must form the bedrock of any change.

Little can be gained in drawing power out of Whitehall only to concentrate it in a new centre. Decisions and the funding behind them should sit as close to democratically led communities as possible.

London’s regional governance needs to evolve to reflect the realities of the modern era. A new governance settlement must mean boroughs and the Mayor taking some of the big strategic decisions together, like in all other Mayoral Strategic Authorities – rather than continuing to rely on voluntary cooperation. 

This is what London needs to better modernise public services, turbocharge housebuilding, deliver inclusive growth, tackle inequality and support Londoners with the jobs and skills they need to succeed. 

These new structures must maximise the benefit of new powers and resources.

What that looks like in practice is up for debate. But we should never be afraid of having a mature and informed conversation about how best to make sure the UK and its capital thrives for decades to come.

In July Kemi Badenoch made a speech, whilst Nigel Farage battled a bin in Clacton and Andy Burnham, having dispatched Kier Starmer to a bin in Westminster, figured out how to be the Mayor of Britain.

While Burnham continues to work on his Tik-Tok game, the clock is running on the mission Badenoch set for the Conservatives:

“We are recruiting serious people who understand common sense, can get stuff done and can unite the country. In the unlikely event that Burnham does call a snap election – and I do not think he will, because turkeys do not vote for Christmas – we will be ready. Since I last wrote in the Telegraph about how we will recruit the next generation of Conservative candidates, we have been deluged with brilliant applications. More than 2,000 people applied, and we will now step up our selection process over the summer as we build a government in waiting.”

I didn’t mention Farage en passant. His post Clacton victory holiday has been rent by squabbling in the top team while he’s away. A lot of the focus has been on the egregious Zia Yusuf the indomitable antedote to charm, a man who has branded himself a “Lethal Election Threat” to the Tories.

For a man who hasn’t been elected to anything but donated his way to a top position in Reform UK, he’s literally gone from ‘buy’ to L.E.T.

He hasn’t stood as a candidate and they turned him down for Runcorn, to plonk for Pochin. She’s not the only former Tory in their ranks-of-former-Tories which brings me back to Badenoch’s mission.

Next week as St Giles day (yes it really is) ushers in the month of September the Conservatives open up the first tranche of constituencies they want to find candidates for and there’s some eye-catching ones, not least in a seat one defector thought better of a by-election at the time of their departure.

So roll up those who are ‘in it to win it’ here’s the first tranche of seats being contested in September and what you need to know.

Newark

Current MP: Robert Jenrick (Reform) majority secured as a Conservative, 3,572. Electorate on 4th July 2024: 79,783. Turnout 67%.

Rob needs no introduction to ConHome readers, as at one point he dominated our reader survey ‘Shadow Cabinet Leadership Table’. We now know around the time of last year’s Conservative Party Conference he’d started talking to Farage via ConHome Founder and until recently Reform member Tim Montgomerie (having left the Conservatives in Dec 2024). Kemi dramatically sacked Jenrick, and on 15th January this year removed his membership after finding “irrefutable evidence” of his plan to defect, which he hastily did some hours later at a press conference with Nigel Farage.

A UK Polling report on 30 June suggested the Conservatives will win Newark at a General Election with 36 per cent of the vote, while Jenrick and Reform will finish second with 27 per cent. This of course is no guarantee. Jenrick is a workaholic, very driven and a good campaigner. The seat will need an equally determined Conservative candidate to beat him, which is surely something CCHQ and Badenoch would cherish.

So far it’s been reported his former friend and County Councillor for Newark East, Sam Smith is interested in delivering that win, he will not be alone though in wanting this one.

Clacton

Current MP: Nigel Farage (Reform) majority secured in by-election (Reform Hold) 13 August 2026 12,784. Electorate on 13 August 2026 79,785. Turnout 44%

As we know the Conservatives, like Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens decided not to stand in a by-election called by Farage and in which he decided to run, so here is the 4th July 2024 result which saw, at the 8th attempt, him finally become an MP; Majority 8,405. Electorate 78,245 Turnout 58.7%.

To unseat Farage would be, quite clearly, a major Tory coup and it is entirely possible that the seat will be fought again, before any General election depending on the outcome of the parliamentary Standards Commissioner’s investigation into the allegation of failing to declare the five million pounds crypto-billionaire Christopher Harborne handed over to Farage in the year before he became an MP, as the rules stipulate. Farage maintains the rules do not apply to ‘personal gifts’ and he was advised of this at the time he became an MP.  He has subsequently dismissed the process as a political attack on Reform, suggesting it’s not such a big problem if he ‘failed to sign some piece of paper’.

So the Tories may have included Clacton in this first tranche to be ready for by-election v2.0 as well as the next General Election

Previous MP for Clacton former actor (now acting again by the way) Giles Watling, 73, lost in 2024 but despite suggesting he’d be prepared to have run in the last by-election, and having had a personal core popularity in the seat – more a victim of the brand rout, than a rejection of him – it’s not clear if he’d be looking to run at a GE again. And – and maybe it shouldn’t be – age might play a factor in that for the local Tories.

The seat will be a fight, but it’d be a high profile one for whoever takes it on.

South West Norfolk 

Current MP: Terry Lamb (Labour) Majority 630. Electorate 74,724. Turnout 59.3%

So who wants to be the inheritor of Liz Truss? Yes this is the seat she lost in 2024. A second blow after having been elected and then rejected in the shortest premiership of modern times, just 49 days as Prime Minister. There was a time when Truss was hugely popular with the membership, she beat Rishi Sunak to the leadership, and she had been a prominent cabinet minister for some time. Word was in the FCDO that half her team worked on Foreign Affairs and the other half worked on her leadership campaign which started a long time before the official one. Well the campaign to win it back starts soon, and it will be hard. Labour hold the seat but Reform did very well in the local elections in Norfolk in May, and the best can be accurately said of the Conservative performance was that it was not nearly as bad as predicted, but still bad. Terry Lamb however sits on just a 630 majority. Speaking of majorities…

Hendon

Current MP: David Pinto-Duschinsky (Labour) Majority 15 Electorate 74,865 Turnout 55.1%

It was Ameet Joggia who fought the General Election in 2024 and in a way became a casualty of the new political reality we have. Pinto-Dushinsky wins for Labour with a majority of just 15 votes, on 15,855 Joggia got 15,840. Third was Reform UK’s Joshua Pearl on 3038, more than enough had it been a straight Tory-Labour fight to give Joggia the seat. But that’s not how things are so the new Conservative Candidate will as in many of these cases have to fight on two fronts, but Hendon is clearly one the Tories feel they could claw back.

David Pinto-Duschinsky is the son of right leaning legal and constitutional expert Michael Pinto-Ducshinsky connected to Policy Exchange and a member in 2011–12, of the Commission on a Bill of Rights set up by the UK Coalition Government in 2010 to advise on reform of the 1998 Human Rights Act. In March 2012, he resigned live on TV after complaining that his views were being ignored.

David is a PPS in the Department for Work and Pensions, both under Starmer and Burnham popped up in a Parliamentary debate to clash with Conservative Esther McVey over her bill for mandatory labelling of halal and kosher meat.

Chelsea and Fulham

Current MP: Ben Coleman (Labour) Majority 152. Electorate 78,468 Turnout 60%.

Former Conservative Greg Hands, a former party Chairman in 2023, a Minister for London (might he fancy running for Mayor?) and a Minister for Trade Policy lost the seat in 2024. To take this one on, one suspects a knowledge of bridges, and the closure of one, will be important. The Liberal Democrats came third in this seat in 2024, but on not so much more than Reform. Again Ben Coleman’s majority is small. He declined to stand down as a councillor in Hammersmith and Fulham at first but did subsequently relinquish that role.

Ribble Valley

Current MP: Maya Ellis (Labour) Majority 856. Electorate 80,484 Turnout 64.6%

Former Conservative MP Nigel Evans, a deputy Speaker will tell anyone that he positively lived for Parliament and being an MP. Here’s another seat where the Reform vote counted. Evans losing by 856 votes, where Reform got 8524. this Nigel has not announced he’s standing again though we are aware friends and colleagues urged him to get back on the list. It’s a a beautiful part of the country so there’s that for anyone wanting to be the candidate, but it’ll be the less pretty realities of today’s political landscape that any new candidate will have to navigate here.

Aylesbury

Maidstone & Malling

Current MP: Helen Grant (Conservative) Majority 1,674 Electorate 76,449. Turnout 60.7%

This is a seat the Conservatives won in 2024. The majority is smaller than you’d like but it’s Tory. Labour were the second challanger and Reform third but short with over a 4k margin from Helen Grant MP who won it. Helen is the shadow Solicitor General and announced in July she’d stand down after 19 years as an MP (our own ConHome columnist Matthew Jeffery can be spotted in the photo) She’ll go at the next election, saying that despite being well, a fight with cancer had made her decide now was the time to ‘pass on the baton‘. She referred to the time she’d had as a candidate to bed into the seat when her predecessor, one Anne Widdecombe, announced she’d be stepping down. That run up time for whoever the Tories pick next could be about the same if an election is in 2028/9. The fact this was Anne Widdecombe’s old seat and the ghastly circumstances around her death, may make this a seat Reform would dearly like to take, but she was a Conservative longer than she was anything else, and as I grew up in this constituency, knowing Anne from my teens, I’ll be watching this one with an added interest.

Poole

Current MP: Neil Duncan-Jordan (Labour)  Majority 18 Electorate 72,509. Turnout 61.4%

Robert Syms was the Conservative MP for Poole, an MP since 1997 winning despite the Blair landslide of that year. He spent time in the Treasury and as a whip. The majority in 2024 of just 18 was accepted only after a number of recounts. Again Syms was close to winning with is 14,150 but Reform were third with 7429. Poole was also a symbol of the scale of defeat in 2024 for the party overall, Syms seeing a drop of 27% from 2019 result where his majority was 19,116. Again the Tories think they could get this one back and want someone in soon who can start the work of trying to do so.

And

Redditch

Current MP: Chris Bloore (Labour) Majority 789. Electorate 71,042. Turnout 59.6%

Rachel McLean, friend and colleague to Kemi Badenoch, is now in the Lords, but here she lost the seat she’d won in 2017, holding the seat vacated by Karen Lumley, fondly remembered by me as one of the first Tory MP’s I got to know well. We lost Karen on 25 May 2023, at the age of 59. She fought Redditch twice unsuccessfully before defeating a sitting Labour Home Secretary Jacqui Smith in 2010.  Rachel has not left politics by any means, and is an active Tory member of the Lords, and supports Badenoch’s leadership though no longer her Strategy Director, after a reshuffle of the team last summer.

Redditch has swapped hands and is one of those seats that if it can be taken from Labour’s Chris Bloore, is one of theose seats the media look at for an indication of the scale of a revival in a party’s fortunes. The seat has people who work at Jaguar Land Rover but the Tories are looking for a tiger to take it back.

ConservativeHome will take a look at the October tranche in late September.