ASHTON-IN-MAKERFIELD, England — Voters in perhaps the most consequential special election ever held in Britain are angry, and they really want someone to feel their pain.
That’s the clear verdict from a special focus group by Public First for POLITICO of voters in Makerfield, the former mining area in northwest England whose June 18 vote could determine the next prime minister.
Some in the group said Andy Burnham, the Labour candidate who is hot favorite to succeed party leader Keir Starmer as PM if he can get himself back into Parliament, might make a difference. But the overwhelming mood during the 90-minute conversation in the Golden Lion pub was one of deep cynicism and bitterness: Life in 2026 is unfair, miserably expensive, and only getting worse, they said.
The goal of Wednesday’s focus group was to get a deep understanding of life in Makerfield — and how voters there are thinking about next week’s by-election. The voters had a mix of political histories and leanings, with longtime Labour voters sitting with supporters of right-wing parties and people who were undecided. But all expressed remarkably similar concerns about the cost of living, immigration, public safety and frustration about an increasingly unequal society.
“These were not a group of people that were thrilled about anything that was going on in Westminster,” said Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First, who moderated the discussion.
Can Burnham overcome that deep disillusionment with the political system? Or will Nigel Farage’s hard right Reform UK party tap into the anger at “two tier” Britain and eject center-left Labour from a seat it has held for decades?
Here are the key takeaways from POLITICO’s Makerfield focus group:
Starmer’s Labour Party has let them down
There was no love for Starmer — and some even felt there was no real difference between his two-year old government and the center-right Conservatives who held power for the previous 14 years. Not one of the nine people in the group said they thought he’d done a good job as prime minister.
And Labour’s party brand has been damaged as a result.
Tom, a father who is planning to vote Reform, said Labour had always claimed to stand for working-class people — but with the cost of daily essentials now punishingly high for everyone in the room and no relief in sight, “How are they for the working class anymore?”
Daily life is too expensive
The participants easily rattled off the exact prices they‘ve watched increase: The cost of living — from a fast-food meal to rent, to a family trip to the cinema — has risen rapidly and become unsustainable for many people in Makerfield, they said. Family holidays they could afford in the past, even for people working full time, are “just a dream” now, one person added.
Jenny, who is retired, said the cost of living has become “terrible.”
Paul, a father who works three jobs, often from 7:30 a.m. until 4 a.m. the next morning, is struggling, and feels let down. “No one should work 60 hours a week and not be able to have a nice life,” he said. “It’s a joke.”
They’re gloomy about politics
Few in the group could point to a political leader of the last 10 years who they felt had made a positive impact on their lives.
Peter, who usually votes Conservative, praised David Cameron’s decision to call a referendum on Brexit 10 years ago. A couple of participants went further back — almost 20 years — to name Tony Blair, who ushered in a Labour government in 1997 after almost two decades of Conservative control, as the last PM who delivered for them.
But most had little confidence that any of today’s politicians would make a difference.
“No government is going to change it,” said Paul. “They’re all crooks, mate. Biggest gangsters in the world.”
Bob, who is in his 90s, added: “I’ve not met a bloody good one yet to be honest.”
They’re very upset about immigration
Farage’s Reform UK is surging ahead in national polls and local elections across the country and is in with a chance of taking Makerfield from Labour. Tackling immigration is his signature policy, and it is clearly a huge concern to participants in the POLITICO group.
The three-letter acronym they kept coming back to was “HMOs.” It stands for Houses in Multiple Occupation — and that means by migrants, in the perception of the focus group.
The concern, the Makerfield voters said, is that landlords and developers are turning homes into residences not for existing local families to live in but for newly arrived immigrants — who are not related to each other — to share. They fear that pushes up rent prices for people who have been living in the area for many years and changes the nature of their community, which is 95 percent made up of people from a “White British” background.
Participants also said they believed many illegal migrants were overwhelming the local health service, making it harder for taxpaying residents to get medical care.
Farage is winning converts who want change
With their anger at the status quo — and demand for a change in their lives and the country’s direction — several focus group participants said they’re increasingly looking to Reform UK.
“I’ve always voted Labour. This is the first time I’m not voting Labour, I’m voting Reform,” said Tom, who is married with two children and works full-time. “They are pushing big on immigration, which is one of our biggest factors.” Reform is not perfect, he said, “it’s more how bad the country’s got over the years with Labour in charge. There needs to be change.”
Dan, another local father who works but struggles to make his money last, said he’d also be switching from Labour to Reform: “I think the country just needs a bit of a shakeup, even if it’s just for one term.”
Crime is a big worry
Crime and disorder seems to be rising up their agenda. A knife attack in the street in Belfast this week, which sparked protests and violent disorder, was at the top of many participants’ minds. They raised fears about crime locally, too, including “feral kids” who harass people in the streets and lead some residents to feel unsafe while out with their families.
There are now fewer police on the streets and they don’t tend to care much about incidents in the constituency’s biggest town, Ashton-in-Makerfield, participants said.
Life isn’t fair in “two-tier” Britain
For the right in British politics, it is now an article of faith that the country is suffering from a “two tier” system in which ordinary Brits miss out, often thanks to politically correct decisions that police and others take to satisfy equality laws.
Farage and Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch have both seized on high-profile cases in recent days to make this point, and in POLITICO’s focus group, it had clearly landed — even among some who are going to vote Labour.
“We need to come up with a better system that makes it fair for everybody. It is a two-tier system here,” said Peter, the local butcher, who is switching this time from the Conservatives to vote for Labour’s Burnham.
Many in the group agreed that the problem was not just policing, but also a wider sense of unfairness — that places like London and even Manchester get all the money and attention, leaving towns like Ashton to struggle.
“A lot of the politics, like Andy has said, has been Londonised. We need somebody from up north,” Peter said.
Traffic jams and warehouses
Alongside immigration from overseas, the changing nature of the area and its “close-knit” local community was a worry for many in the group. In particular, they raised concerns that plans to build hundreds of new homes and five “super unit” warehouses would lead to a huge increase in traffic that the already clogged road network would be unable to handle.
The green landscape around Ashton is highly prized, and several people in the group said they did not want fields to be built on, turning their area into another endless suburb like Liverpool or Manchester.
‘Andy cares’
Burnham’s record as Mayor of Greater Manchester, the broader area, was seen as a big plus, even by people who were not likely to vote for him.
Participants in the group readily named his achievements at improving local transport infrastructure and hiring more police. Two even said they had in the past gone directly to Burnham with problems they or their families were facing and he had fixed them.
Most of all, there was a sense that Burnham, who grew up nearby and previously represented people in the area in parliament, understands their lives. Bob, Peter, Emma and Mandy all said they were planning to vote for Burnham next week.
“He just comes over as if he cares and as if he wants to sort the country out,” said Mandy, who works part-time as a cleaner and merchandizer. “I just think he seems to be a more down-to-earth person who is looking out for people. He seems more genuine.”
Having someone from the North as prime minister would also help their area, several participants said. “We need better leadership,” added Peter. “We need somebody who cares and I do feel like Andy cares.”
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