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2026 Belmont Stakes horses, odds, post time: Picks by elite horse racing handicapper

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The 158th Belmont Stakes goes to post on Saturday, but with a fresh twist. Relocated to historic Saratoga Race Course while Belmont Park undergoes renovations, the third leg of the Triple Crown will be run at 1¼ miles, matching the Kentucky Derby distance. The nine-horse Belmont Stakes field features a strong Derby rematch. Renegade, the 2-1 Belmont Stakes 2026 odds favorite, can avenge his second-place finish at the Kentucky Derby, with Derby winner Golden Tempo in the field. Post time is set for 7:04 p.m. ET. Bet the Belmont Stakes with the TwinSpires promo code CBSSPORTS and get an exclusive $400 bonus, double the regular offer:

Renegade leads a strong group of Belmont Stakes contenders. Chief Wallabee (3-1), Golden Tempo (9-2), Commandment (6-1) and Emerging Market (6-1) are all solidly in the mix as well. Before making any 2026 Belmont Stakes picks, you’ll want to see the 2026 Belmont Stakes predictions from SportsLine’s Michelle Yu

She started off 2025 by correctly going all-in on Citizen Bull to win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and she also predicted Forever Young’s win in the Saudi Cup, Journalism’s win in the San Felipe Stakes, Sandman’s win in the Arkansas Derby and Mindframe’s win in the Churchill Downs Stakes. She also hit the exacta in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. In August she hit the Fierceness-Journalism exacta in the Pacific Classic, and in March 2026 she nailed the Renegade-Silent Tactic-Taptastic trifecta in the Arkansas Derby. 

Now, with the 2026 Belmont Stakes post positions set and odds on the board, Yu is sharing her 2026 Belmont Stakes betting picks and 2026 Belmont Stakes predictions over at SportsLine. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

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Top 2026 Belmont Stakes predictions

One surprise: Yu is fading Chief Wallabee at 3-1, one of the premier Belmont Stakes 2026 contenders. Wallabee trainer Bill Mott has a long and storied history at Saratoga. His horse, Sovereignty, won the 2025 Belmont Stakes.

But Chief Wallabee has had four career races. In order, he’s finished first, then second, then third, then fourth. Perhaps more important, the horse’s speed rating has gone down, if only slightly, in all four races. That’s enough for Wu to look at other horses when choosing her top Belmont Stakes picks. See which other 2026 Belmont Stakes horses to back at SportsLine.

Bet the Belmont Stakes with the TwinSpires promo code CBSSPORTS and get an exclusive $400 bonus, double the regular offer:

How to make 2026 Belmont Stakes picks

Instead, Yu’s top pick is a horse who should be “effective” regardless of the pace. She’s also high on a massive double-digit longshot who “should sit a lovely trip.” She’s sharing which 2026 Belmont Stakes horses to back at SportsLine.

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So who wins the 2026 Belmont Stakes? What double-digit longshot is a must-back, and how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu’s picks for the Belmont Stakes, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Belmont Stakes, and find out. 

2026 Belmont Stakes odds, post positions

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President Donald Trump urges MLB to institute a salary cap: 'They should have done it a long time ago'

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‘You don’t have a sport’ if you don’t have a salary cap, Trump said

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R Praggnanandhaa Achieves Historic Feat, Becomes 1st Indian To Win Norway Chess Title

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Grandmaster R Praggnanandhaa made history on Friday as he became the first Indian to win the Norway Chess title. The 20-year-old chess star defeated Germany’s Vincent Keymer to conclude his campaign on a memorable note. Praggnanandhaa, who started the day in third place with 15 points, stepped up at the right moment and won his classical game, earning three crucial points. This took his total to 18 points and helped him win one of the most prestigious titles in elite chess. With this victory, the Chennai-born star achieved something that even Indian legend Viswanathan Anand and current world champion D Gukesh had not managed since the tournament began in 2013.

Competing in Norway Chess for only the second time, Praggnanandhaa endured a slow start in the elite six-player field before gathering momentum in the second half of the event.

His campaign was highlighted by a remarkable achievement — defeating seven-time Norway Chess champion and World No. 1 Magnus Carlsen twice in classical chess — a rare accomplishment that underlined his determination to bounce back from the disappointment of an underwhelming Candidates Tournament in Paphos earlier this year.

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As reigning world champion Gukesh fell out of contention in the closing stages, Praggnanandhaa ensured that India’s challenge remained alive, ultimately carrying it all the way to the title.

The result was made possible after American Grandmaster Wesley So, who led the standings with 15.5 points heading into the final round, was held to a draw in his classical game against Alireza Firouzja, sending their contest into an Armageddon tie-break.

That outcome opened the door for Praggnanandhaa, who knew that a classical victory over Keymer would propel him to the top of the standings and secure a landmark title.

Although Wesley So went on to win the Armageddon tie-break, the victory was worth only 1.5 points, taking his tally to 17 points — one short of Praggnanandhaa’s winning total of 18.

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Alireza, who had also entered the final round with title hopes, finished third with 15.5 points.

Meanwhile, Gukesh’s disappointing campaign continued as his third appearance in the tournament ended without the breakthrough he had hoped for in a year when he is set to defend his world title against challenger Javokhir Sindarov.

In the final round, Carlsen, playing with the white pieces, defeated the 20-year-old Indian in a classical game to collect three full points. However, the victory was not enough to propel the Norwegian great into title contention, as he finished fifth in the standings with 13 points.

(With PTI Inputs)

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Rangers’ offense gets jolt with return of Corey Seager, Wyatt Langford

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May 6, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager (5) rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn ImagesMay 6, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager (5) rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The Texas Rangers formally activated star shortstop Corey Seager from the 10-day injured list Friday and he’s expected to be in the lineup for their home game against the Cleveland Guardians.

Seager was on the IL due to lower back inflammation. He last appeared in a game on May 13.

The 32-year-old is batting just .179 this season and is hitless in a career-worst 27 consecutive at-bats. He has seven home runs and 20 RBIs in 42 games.

Seager is in his fifth season with Texas and was named World Series MVP in 2023 when the Rangers beat the Arizona Diamondbacks in five games. He was the runner-up for regular-season MVP honors behind Shohei Ohtani, then of the Los Angeles Angels.

Seager also was World Series MVP with the champion Los Angeles Dodgers in 2020. He is a five-time All-Star.

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The Rangers also activated outfielder Wyatt Langford from the 10-day IL prior to Friday’s game.

Langford sustained a forearm flexor strain in April and last played for Texas on April 21. He was batting .238 with one homer and four RBIs in 20 games this season. Last year, he registered 22 home runs, 62 RBIs and 22 steals in 134 games.

Langford, 24, began a rehab assignment at Round Rock on Saturday. He was 2-for-10 with a homer, two RBIs and five walks in four minor league games.

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Texas also formally optioned outfielder Alejandro Osuna, 23, and utility man Cody Freeman, 25, to Triple-A Round Rock and designated outfielder Sam Haggerty, 32, for assignment.

Osuna batted .253 with nine RBIs in 37 games, while Freeman was 1-for-2 in his lone game on Wednesday. Haggerty, who batted .159 with one RBI in 35 games for the Rangers, was activated from the bereavement list while being DFA’d.

Texas also signed right-hander Josh Sborz to a minor league deal with Round Rock. Sborz, 32, went 13-12 with a 4.86 ERA in 143 appearances (one start) for Texas from 2021-24.

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Four ex-Alabama St. players paid to fix game in 2024

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Mar 20, 2025; Lexington, KY, USA;  Alabama State Hornets guard Amarr Knox (1) shoots the ball against Auburn Tigers forward Ja'Heim Hudson (8) during the second half in the first round of the NCAA Tournament at Rupp Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn ImagesMar 20, 2025; Lexington, KY, USA; Alabama State Hornets guard Amarr Knox (1) shoots the ball against Auburn Tigers forward Ja’Heim Hudson (8) during the second half in the first round of the NCAA Tournament at Rupp Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Four players on the 2024-25 Alabama State men’s basketball team committed sports betting integrity violations, the NCAA announced on Friday.

Amarr Knox, Shawn Fulcher, Corey Hines and Tony Madlock engaged in game manipulation on Dec. 5, 2024, when Southern Miss, a six-point favorite, pulled away in the second half and defeated the Hornets, 81-64.

In NCAA enforcement staff interviews with Knox, he reported that Fulcher put the four players in a group chat with known bettors. Madlock informed the bettors that he was injured and would not play. The bettors offered the players a total of $2,000 to throw the game. The players accepted and were subsequently paid.

Alabama State in fact led the game 33-30 at halftime, but shot only 23 of 71 (32.4%) on the day, compared to 30-of-60 (50%) efficiency by Southern Miss.

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The Hornets won seven of their final eight games of the regular season, captured the SWAC tournament title and defeated Saint Francis in a First Four game of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Knox hit the game-winning layup with one second remaining, giving the program its first NCAA Division I Tournament victory in program history.

In January 2026, the bettors were indicted on charges of wire fraud and bribery related to sports contests by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania. In addition, Hines and Fulcher, who both failed to cooperate and provided false information to the enforcement staff, were also indicted by the U.S. Attorney’s office.

Madlock, who had exhausted his college eligibility, declined to take part in an interview with the enforcement staff.

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None of the players competed on a college team last season. Barring the assistance of an NCAA school, Hines, Fulcher and Knox cannot be reinstated.

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Freddie Jacobson, Soren Kjeldsen post 59 to begin Champions’ team event

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Soren Kjeldsen reacts to missing a birdie putt on 12 during the final round of the Furyk & Friends PGA Tour Champions event held at Timuquana Country Club in Jacksonville, Fl., Sunday October 5, 2025. Tommy Gainey won the tournament by shooting -14. Cameron Percy placed second with -12. [Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union]Soren Kjeldsen reacts to missing a birdie putt on 12 during the final round of the Furyk & Friends PGA Tour Champions event held at Timuquana Country Club in Jacksonville, Fl., Sunday October 5, 2025. Tommy Gainey won the tournament by shooting -14. Cameron Percy placed second with -12. [Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union]

Freddie Jacobson of Sweden and Soren Kjeldsen of Denmark teamed up for a 12-under-par 59 to set the pace at the American Family Insurance Championship, the PGA Tour Champions’ only team event, on Friday in Madison, Wis.

Jacobson and Kjeldsen lead by a single stroke over two teams, Brian Gay and Slovakia’s Rory Sabbatini and Australians Richard Green and Mark Hensby. Germany’s Bernhard Langer and New Zealand’s Steven Alker made a push late in the day and finished at 10-under 61, tied with Aussies Cameron Percy and Greg Chalmers.

The three-day event at TPC Wisconsin introduced the team format last year. The first and final rounds will be four ball (best ball), while Saturday’s second round will be a scramble.

The Nordic leaders got off to a fast start when Kjeldsen converted an eagle at the par-5 second hole. They went on to card 10 birdies, Jacobson responsible for six of them.

“We sort of alternated nicely, like one guy made a putt and then the next guy, and Freddie was sort of on fire middle of the round,” Kjeldsen said. “Yeah, we built up that momentum that you really need in this format.”

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Kjeldsen tied for second at this event last year with a different playing partner, Alex Cejka of Germany.

Sabbatini, who turned 50 in April, is looking for his first win on the PGA Tour Champions. He and Gay previously played together at the PGA Tour’s Zurich Classic of New Orleans and finished third in that team event in 2019.

They started on the back nine, where Gay converted seven birdies by himself for a nine-hole score of 28.

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“Brian was obviously, as they say in Vegas, he was on a heater, so I stayed out of his way and let Seabiscuit run, and he did,” Sabbatini said. “He fired 28 on the back nine, which was our front, by himself. I just sat there and watched. It was kind of fun for me.”

Darren Clarke of Northern Ireland won the tournament last year playing with Denmark’s Thomas Bjorn. Bjorn wasn’t available this year, so Clarke teamed up with Ben Crane. They opened with a 9-under 62 and are tied for sixth.

The team of Stewart Cink and Zach Johnson — who’ve combined for five wins on tour this year — settled for a 6-under 65 to open.

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NFL news: Broncos star Jonathon Cooper arrested on domestic violence charges

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Denver Broncos star Jonathon Cooper and his girlfriend were both arrested on domestic violence charges on Friday.

Both Cooper and his girlfriend were held on suspicion of two counts of domestic violence and one count of criminal mischief, according to Douglas County jail records.

An argument broke out between the two over cheating allegations, according to TMZ.

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Jonathon Cooper playing and a mugshot

(Left) Denver Broncos linebacker Jonathon Cooper (0) looks on after a defensive play in the overtime period of the AFC Divisional Round game against the Buffalo Bills at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado, on Jan. 17, 2026. (Right) Denver Broncos star Jonathon Cooper was arrested early Friday morning on suspicion of two counts of domestic violence and one count of criminal mischief in Colorado. (Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images; Courtesy of the Douglas County Sheriff’s Office)

The pair, who have been seeing each other on and off for years, were hanging out at Cooper’s residence when she confronted him over his alleged infidelity. The woman grabbed Cooper’s phone and threw it against a wall, and then eventually regained control of the device to go through it, the arrest affidavit said, according to TMZ.

Cooper and the woman then struggled for the phone, which Cooper eventually retrieved after a physical struggle. He then demanded that the woman leave his home, or he allegedly told her he would break her cell phone, the probable cause affidavit said, per TMZ.

After the woman did not leave, he bit down and broke the screen on the iPhone, according to the affidavit.

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Jonathon Cooper mugshot

Denver Broncos star Jonathon Cooper was arrested early Friday morning on suspicion of two counts of domestic violence and one count of criminal mischief in Colorado. (Courtesy of Douglas County Sheriff’s Office)

Cooper had a hearing at 9:45 a.m. in a Douglas County courtroom, and a follow-up hearing will be held on Monday, when Cooper is expected to enter a plea, according to 9NEWS.

Following the hearing, Cooper was released on a personal recognizance bond, according to 9NEWS’ report.

Fox News Digital reached out to the Broncos and Cooper’s agency for comment but did not immediately receive a response.

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Denver Broncos linebacker Jonathon Cooper standing on the field at Empower Field at Mile High.

Denver Broncos linebacker Jonathon Cooper stands on the field before the game at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colo., on Dec. 21, 2025. (Ron Chenoy/Imagn Images)

Cooper, 28, has been with the Broncos since they drafted him out of Ohio State in the seventh round of the NFL Draft, and he has spent all five seasons of his career with Denver.

In 17 games last season, Cooper recorded 50 tackles and eight sacks and was a key member of the Broncos’ stout defense. In his career, Cooper has played 81 games, recording 266 tackles and 31.5 sacks.

The Broncos signed him to a four-year, $60 million contract extension in November 2024.

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Astros reinstate 2B Jose Altuve (left oblique strain) from IL

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Jun 4, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve (27) warms up prior to the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn ImagesJun 4, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve (27) warms up prior to the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros have reinstated All-Star second baseman Jose Altuve (left oblique strain) from the 10-day injured list and he is slated to bat fifth as the club opens a three-game home series vs. the Athletics on Friday.

In a corresponding move, Houston optioned outfielder Zach Dezenzo to Triple-A Sugar Land.

Altuve was placed on the IL on May 17 after taking an unorthodox swing the previous night against the Texas Rangers.

Altuve, 36, was hitting .245 with four home runs and 12 RBIs through 42 games.

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The Astros are 9-8 in the 17 games that Altuve has missed.

The nine-time All-Star is hitting well below his career average of .302. Earlier this year, he played in his 2,000th game with the Astros and is currently 72 hits shy of 2,500 in his 16-year career.

Dezenzo, 26, was hitting .191 with one home run and two RBIs in 21 games in his third season with the Astros.

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‘I don’t care who we’re leaving out’: Vaibhav Sooryavanshi backed for India debut by ex-England captain | Cricket News

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‘I don't care who we're leaving out': Vaibhav Sooryavanshi backed for India debut by ex-England captain
Rajasthan Royals’ Vaibhav Sooryavanshi (ANI Photo)

Former England captain Nasser Hussain believes India should not wait too long before handing teenage sensation Vaibhav Sooryavanshi an international debut, insisting the Rajasthan Royals opener has already done enough to force his way into the national conversation.Speaking on The ICC Review, Hussain was full of praise for the 15-year-old, whose record-shattering IPL 2026 campaign turned him into one of the most talked-about young cricketers in the world.“Such an easy answer to give to that is that yes, he has to play. I didn’t watch too much of the IPL to be honest, but I watched clips of Sooryavanshi and what an incredible talent,” Nasser Hussain said.Sooryavanshi’s numbers from the season were extraordinary. The left-handed opener accumulated 776 runs in 16 matches at a remarkable strike rate of 237.30. He also rewrote the IPL record books by smashing 72 sixes, the most ever recorded in a single edition of the tournament. His performances earned him both the Orange Cap and the Most Valuable Player award.The teenager’s rise has attracted admiration from some of the biggest names in cricket. Former India head coach Ravi Shastri has already publicly backed him for higher honours, while batting legend Sachin Tendulkar recently praised the youngster’s technique and fearless batting style.Hussain drew on his own memories of witnessing a prodigious Indian talent for the first time, recalling his early encounter with Tendulkar during the Nehru Cup.“One of my first games for England was in the Nehru Cup, that’s how long ago it was, and this young lad strode out with pads on that I’d never seen before, and his name was Sachin Tendulkar,” Hussain recalled.“And I was in complete awe and I’ve noticed Sachin putting out some tweets about Sooryavanshi’s bat swing and if you can impress Sachin Tendulkar and if you can impress Virat Kohli and the rest, he’s impressed everyone. What an unbelievable talent,” he added.While acknowledging India’s abundance of batting options at the top of the order, Hussain argued that truly exceptional talent eventually makes selection unavoidable.India currently have several established and emerging white-ball openers, including Abhishek Sharma, Sanju Samson and Ishan Kishan. Yet Hussain believes Sooryavanshi’s case has become impossible to ignore.“So anywhere else in the world you would say get him in. But usually at the toss you just have to name 11 players. In international cricket, who do you leave out for him?“India have a list of batters they could play and should play, but in the end, someone makes such a case, such a consistent case, and such an incredible case for being picked. In the end, you have to say, I don’t care who we’re leaving out, this lad has to play,” Hussain believes.The former England skipper also pointed out that the next phase of Sooryavanshi’s development will involve proving himself in different conditions and overcoming the inevitable challenges that every young batter faces during a long career.“And I’m getting towards that stage where you say this lad has to play because there are other challenges doing it away from home.“Doing it against a ball that’s moving around, having an eventual downturn in form, which he’s not had yet, finding a weakness, maybe the short ball, who knows?“But he needs to get through all of that before you get to a world event and he’s going to be a star. We saw it in the U19 World Cup. We saw what he did to England in the U19 World Cup, to everyone, but England in particular. My word, this lad is a talent and he has to play,” he said.Sooryavanshi’s credentials extend beyond his IPL exploits. Earlier this year, he played a pivotal role in India’s victorious Under-19 World Cup campaign, producing the highest score ever recorded in a tournament final against England.The next step in his journey is already underway. Following his remarkable domestic and franchise season, Sooryavanshi has been named in the India A squad for the upcoming tri-series featuring Sri Lanka and Afghanistan, which begins on June 9.

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Kevin O’Connell Starts Singing a Different Song with the Vikings’ QBs

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J.J. McCarthy talks with Kevin O’Connell on the Vikings sideline during the game against the Falcons.
Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) discusses strategy with head coach Kevin O’Connell on Sep 14, 2025, during first-half play against the Atlanta Falcons at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. The two reviewed adjustments on the sideline as the rookie continued gaining command of the offense under O’Connell’s guidance in the early stages of his first NFL season. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images.

At some point, reality needs to be acknowledged.

Kevin O’Connell has been doing his best to slowdown the effort to fully ignite the passer battle. In the spring, the focus rests on digesting the playbook, building comradery among teammates, perfecting technique, and so on. Class on the grass, a coach will say. But while that may be the focus, Coach O’Connell is at least now acknowledging that the competition has begun.

Kevin O’Connell Talks Vikings QB Competition

Consider, for instance, the conversation that Kevin O’Connell had with Mike Florio and Chris Simms of Pro Football Talk.

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The former NFL passers — Simms and O’Connell — dug into the topic. Simms, God bless him, asked about Minnesota actually having an open competition. O’Connell swerves immediately, re-framing the discussion: “What I would say is this: we’re going to go through the offseason program. I’ve always looked at that as kind of the learning [and] teaching phase. There’s a lot of individual player improvement plans being activated.”

Not long afterwards, there’s a mention of working toward “mastery” of the scheme.

Kevin O’Connell at the NFL Annual League Meeting at the Arizona Biltmore in Phoenix
Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell stands during the 2026 NFL Annual League Meeting at the Arizona Biltmore on Mar. 31, 2026, in Phoenix. O’Connell’s appearance came as league leaders and team decision-makers gathered to discuss offseason priorities, rule matters, and roster-building strategies ahead of the 2026 campaign. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Journey forward into OTAs at the beginning of June, a key part of individual learning that O’Connell layered into his March prophecy. O’Connell doesn’t appear so shy about the prospect of a competition unfolding right now.

“I’ve been really happy with the way both those guys,” O’Connell explained, “J.J. and Kyler have kind of attacked it in their own individual kind of ways, knowing that they’re competing. Look, there’s no, it’s a competition, these guys are working everyday. They know that. But the greater good of the Minnesota Vikings and our team’s ceiling is the most important thing that’s clear to both of those guys.”

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And then afterwards there was chatter about McCarthy’s now infamous “high school classroom” comparison. The key point, though, is that Kevin O’Connell didn’t appear shy about naming the competition a competition. So, what changed?

First and most obvious is the calendar. Real work (June) rather than imagined work (March) is ongoing at TCO Performance Center. Reps are being taken, meaning the two combatants are squaring off even if it’s just shorts and jerseys.

Similarly of note is that O’Connell does still try to bring things around to the priority. The team, not the individual passers, is what matters. But then there’s the other detail shoehorned in there: each guy working through an own individualized plan to become a better quarterback. There is, in other words, somewhat of a tension that’s taking place.

In McCarthy and Murray, the Vikings have two quarterbacks pursuing singular pathways to push each individual game higher. Well and good. But then there’s the pool that these two are swimming in. Whoever becomes the QB1 needs to elevate the team via individual performance. Such is life for a professional quarterback within the NFL.

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Jun 10, 2025; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin Kevin O’Connell watches practices during minicamp at the Minnesota Vikings Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images.

Combined, the Vikings’ quarterbacks did poorly last season.

The 9-8 Vikings had the trio of arms offer a 61.6% completion rate alongside 2,834 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions. These are brutal statistics for a team boasting Kevin O’Connell as the head coach alongside Justin Jefferson at receiver.

Kevin O’Connell is moving into his fifth season as the team’s head coach. Quite possibly, a season that resembles the effort from last year will mean that O’Connell never arrives at a sixth NFL season in Minnesota, making the currently unfolding quarterback competition of the utmost importance.

Next up in the offseason program is mandatory minicamp. Slowly at first but then quite suddenly, the passer battle will grow in intensity.


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Senior Editor for Vikings Territory & PurplePTSD . Twitter & Bluesky: @VikingsGazette. Email: k.joudry[at]vikingsterritory[dot]com. Canadian. Jude 1:24-25.

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ESPN’s ‘Football Power Index’ Is Not Sold on the Vikings

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Byron Murphy Jr. stands on the field during a Vikings game against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Minnesota Vikings cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. (7) takes the field during a road matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. On Sept. 14, 2023, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Murphy helped lead Minnesota’s secondary in a nationally televised contest as the Vikings faced one of the NFC’s premier teams early in the season. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Every June, ESPN releases its FPI — Football Power Index — a thermometer of each team’s ranking before the regular season. This go-around, the metric claims the Minnesota Vikings are the league’s 19th-best team and on tap for an 8-9 record.

Yes, it’s a fancy way of saying the most powerful sports network in the world believes the Vikings are mid.

Brian Flores Should Give Vikings a Better Case Than No. 19

Jordan Addison celebrates with Vikings fans after scoring a touchdown at Lambeau Field. ESPN FPI Vikings
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison celebrates with fans after reaching the end zone during a divisional road victory. Following a third-quarter touchdown on Oct. 29, 2023, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin, Addison shared the moment with supporters as Minnesota secured an important NFC North win over the Packers. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports.

ESPN FPI: Vikings at No. 19

FPI rankings are out, and the Vikings are sandwiched between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 18) and the Indianapolis Colts (No. 20). ESPN argues that Minnesota is the NFL’s 19th-best team with the ninth-worst offense. The metric basically does not trust Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy.

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Defense is a different story — thank goodness. ESPN FPI placed Minnesota at No. 7 defensively, which is actually a bit low because the Vikings ranked third-best in the league per EPA/Play and DVOA last season.

On special teams, Minnesota pulled down the No. 8 spot, probably because kicker Will Reichard was an All-Pro in 2025. And via strength of schedule, it was No. 16 for the Vikings — smack dab in the middle.

All told, FPI claims that Minnesota has a 29.1% chance of reaching the postseason.

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What Is FPI?

New to FPI? That’s fair; it’s not overly popular. Here’s how ESPN describes the stat:

At its core, NFL FPI is a prediction system for the NFL. Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams efficiency, as measured by expected points added per play, and that rating is the basis for FPI’s game-level and season-level projections. Other information included in the preseason ratings include: previous years’ efficiencies for each unit, number of returning starters (on offense and defense), coaching/coordinator/quarterback changes and quarterback injuries.

After combining all of these factors, a preseason FPI rating is determined for each team, which represents the points above or below average a team is expected to be in the coming season. Preseason FPI will serve as the basis of the early-season predictions but will diminish in effect as the season progresses and we learn more about the actual strength of each team.

FPI calls the Los Angeles Rams the top dog in the NFL — most do — with the Buffalo Bills a distant second.

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ESPN’s Seth Walder noted on the NFC North specifically, “The NFC North trio of the Bears, Packers and Vikings rank 10th, 14th and 16th in strength of schedule, respectively. But the Lions rank 31st. Detroit lucked out after finishing last in the division in 2025, as its fourth-place schedule differ significantly from its NFC North rivals.”

“Though the other three teams must battle with NFC West heavyweights, the Lions face the Cardinals. Same deal (to less of an extreme) in facing the AFC South — the rest of the division has to face one of the Texans, Colts and Jaguars, while the Lions play the Titans. Detroit also will face the Giants, and the Bears and Packers will have to tangle with the Eagles and Cowboys, respectively.”

The 2024 Warning

At this time on the calendar in 2024, the Vikings ranked 25th per ESPN FPI. How did they respond? The club won 14 games during Sam Darnold’s rebirth season and almost pulled off an NFC North crown if not for a lousy game at Detroit in Week 18.

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Justin Jefferson warms up before a Vikings game against the Green Bay Packers. ESPN FPI Vikings
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson goes through pregame preparations before a rivalry matchup in Green Bay. Ahead of kickoff on Sept. 29, 2024, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin, Jefferson participated in warm-ups as Minnesota prepared for another NFC North showdown against the Packers. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images.

FPI is a wonderful guideline for how teams might fare in an upcoming season, but it obviously is not gospel. It also fluctuates. For example, if Minnesota wins its first few games in September, it will climb into the FPI Top 10, and few will remember the 19th ranking from June.

Another club that might be ranked too low? The New Orleans Saints. They sit at No. 25 per FPI. New Orleans finished the 2025 campaign strong, and some are high on quarterback Tyler Shough’s upside.

It’s the Defense, Stupid.

Flores has quietly assembled one of the NFL’s most formidable defenses in Minnesota. Consider the Vikings’ defensive EPA/Play rankings since Flores’s arrival:

2023: 17th
2024: 1st
2025: 3rd
2023–2025 overall: 2nd

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The data reveals a noteworthy trend: over three years, Minnesota has boasted the NFL’s second-best defense by EPA/Play under Flores’s leadership.

The accomplishment should not be overlooked. Regardless of the Vikings’ offensive performance in 2026, the defense is already strong enough to contend for a Super Bowl. Unfortunately, the team’s inconsistent offense has overshadowed this larger narrative. In one season, the offense might struggle to find its rhythm; in another, it falters critically when it matters most. All the while, the defense performs at a high level.

Brian Flores watches from the sideline during a Vikings game against the Packers. ESPN FPI Vikings
Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores watches the action from the sideline during a late-season divisional contest. In the fourth quarter on Jan. 4, 2026, at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota, Flores monitored his defense against the Green Bay Packers as Minnesota closed out the regular season. Mandatory Credit: Matt Blewett-Imagn Images.

Flores now possesses the talent, reputation, and track record to demonstrate that ESPN’s No. 19 ranking is undervalued. Barring an unforeseen collapse, Minnesota is poised to once again feature one of the league’s elite defensive units. It’s what Flores does.

The Vikings don’t need to aspire to a championship-caliber defense; they already have one.


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Dustin Baker is a novelist and political scientist. His second novel, The Invaders , is out now. So is … More about Dustin Baker
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