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2026 NFL Draft Betting Report: Lack of Information Creates Chaos for Books

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If you’re thinking of betting on NFL Draft odds for the No. 1 overall pick, don’t waste your time. 

At -20000 odds — meaning it takes a $200 bet to win one dollar — Fernando Mendoza is the overwhelming favorite. The Indiana quarterback is practically signed, sealed and delivered to the Las Vegas Raiders.

But things get more interesting from there.

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“When someone is that big a favorite, the conversation seems to shift to pick No. 2. And it has,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “That’s the most-bet prop, the biggest-bet market right now.”

Feazel helps break down the most notable 2026 NFL Draft odds, ahead of the Thursday-Saturday event in Pittsburgh.

This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.

Information Age

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Before addressing the No. 2 overall pick, it’s first worth noting how NFL Draft betting differs from what bookmakers typically face.

“In the trading department, we like to use math,” Feazel said, alluding to how odds are set for games. “But the NFL Draft is information-based. When a bet comes in on information, the difficulty is deciding whether it’s a rumor or if the bettor on the other side has information. And whether a rumor is true or not.

“When you take math out of the equation, it normally isn’t that helpful to us.”

Sharp bettors often heavily engage in NFL Draft odds, and they tend to do well. It’s a tough event for sportsbooks to win.

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“We have won sometimes, and we’re certainly trying to win. But we’re not expecting a lot of the information to go our way,” Feazel said.

Two-Man Battle

The No. 2 overall pick is still very much in flux, although it’s clearly a two-man battle between Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese and Texas Tech defensive end David Bailey.

It’s so close, in fact, that as of Tuesday afternoon, Reese and Bailey are -115 co-favorites at Caesars. After those two, odds stretch out to +6000 for Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles.

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No surprise, information is affecting this NFL prop bet.

“It was starting to look like David Bailey was gonna be the No. 2 pick, so we moved him to the favorite. But then it was thought that the Jets were maybe trying to trade the pick,” Feazel said.

Don’t be surprised if Reese and Bailey’s odds continue to be volatile. And if a trade happens at No. 2, things could get much murkier.

“There could be someone who’s not even expected to be in the mix,” Feazel said.

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QBs or Not QBs

Among the slew of NFL Draft prop bets available, one of the most popular is on the number of quarterbacks drafted in the first round.

This year, the expectations are quite low. Pretty much every sportsbook has the Over/Under at 1.5. However, the Over 1.5 is a growing favorite, now at odds of -225, with Under 1.5 a +175 underdog.

Mendoza is obviously a lock. The deciding factor is whether Alabama QB Ty Simpson is deemed first-round worthy.

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“It’s kind of been going up and down. And it correlates to the price of Simpson to be drafted in the first round,” Feazel said.

In fact, it directly correlates. On the separate NFL Draft prop of players to be first-round picks, Simpson is -225.

However, there is a difference of opinion among bettors.

“It’s been two-way action, all based on speculation on Simpson,” Feazel said. “There are rumors that the Cardinals or someone else might be interested.”

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Arizona has the No. 3 overall pick — which it certainly won’t use on Simpson — then the second pick of the second round, No. 34 overall. The thought is that the Cards might try to trade up from that No. 34 slot, into the first round, to draft Simpson.

But if you think Arizona holds pat and Simpson slips to Round 2, then there might be some betting value on Under 1.5 QBs. At +175, a $100 bet would net $175 profit (total payout $275).

More Popular Plays

Feazel said three more markets consistently draw attention in NFL Draft prop bets: players to be picked in the top 5, top 10 or the first round.

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“Bettors are trying to find value at a plus-money price,” Feazel said. “One thing we saw recently, with the Giants sneaking back into the top 10, was interest on Jordyn Tyson, the wide receiver from Arizona State.”

Tyson had hamstring issues that kept him out of the NFL combine and ASU’s initial pro day. And previous injuries are a concern, as well, including a multi-ligament knee tear in 2022.

On Friday, though, he had a private workout that, by all accounts, went well. And the rumors are that the Giants are a strong possible suitor, after they traded Pro Bowl defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals in exchange for the 10th pick.

“Early on, we had Tyson at +220 to go in the first 10 picks. Now, we’re at -375,” Feazel said of the wideout going from an underdog to a favorite in that market. “He’s expected to be picked early.”

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Tyson’s top-10 prop ties into the market for the number of wide receivers to go in the first round. Feazel said that Caesars opened Over 5.5 as a modest -125 favorite, but those odds are now out to -190.

Also, Caesars opened the prop of offensive linemen drafted in the first round at 7.5, with odds of -115 on both the Over and Under — a pick ‘em. However, Over 7.5 is now a substantial -280 favorite.

“A lot of people are expecting a big run of offensive linemen, from picks 10 to 20,” Feazel said.

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Football gossip: Kolo Muani, Mainoo, Silva, Anderson, Tchouameni, Trafford

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Liverpool could move for Randal Kolo Muani, Kobbie Mainoo verbally agrees to new Manchester United deal and Bernardo Silva is on Arsenal and Barcelona’s radar.

Liverpool have identified France international Randal Kolo Muani, 27, as a potential replacement for Mohamed Salah but face competition from Juventus for the Paris St-Germain forward. (Gazzetta dello Sport – in Italian), external

England midfielder Kobbie Mainoo, 21, has verbally agreed to a new five-year contract with Manchester United. (Sun), external

Arsenal and Barcelona have emerged as possible destinations for Portugal midfielder Bernardo Silva, 31, when he leaves Manchester City at the end of the season. (ESPN Brazil – in Portuguese), external

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Nottingham Forest‘s England midfielder Elliot Anderson, 23, and Real Madrid and France midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni, 26, are being eyed by Manchester United as they look to replace the departing Casemiro. (Telegraph – subscription required), external

Brighton could offer England goalkeeper James Trafford, 23, a route out of Manchester City in the summer. (Florian Plettenberg), external

Manchester United and Galatasaray are ready to battle it out for 28-year-old Juventus and Netherlands midfielder Teun Koopmeiners. (Tuttosport – in Italian), external

Barcelona are leading the race for Eduardo Conceicao, with Manchester City, Manchester United and Newcastle also interested in the 16-year-old Palmeiras forward. Any move to Europe could not happen until he turns 18 next year. (TeamTalk), external

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West Ham are willing to let Greece defender Konstantinos Mavropanos, 28, leave this summer amid interest from the Bundesliga, but will demand a big fee. (Football Insider), external

Chelsea and Manchester United are among the clubs keeping tabs on Bournemouth‘s 22-year-old English midfielder Alex Scott. (Caught Offside), external

Leeds are planning to hand Wales midfielder Ethan Ampadu, 25, a new contract at the end of the season. (Teamtalk), external

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Why is CC doing Ja Morant gesture lately

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Caitlin Clark showed off her sharp shooting skills in front of the Indiana Fever advisor and former coach Lin Dunn. On Tuesday, the Fever’s Instagram account shared a video of their star guard sinking a 3-point shot from the corner during practice in Dunn’s presence.

Clark turned around and looked at Dunn after making the shot. She put out her tongue and raised her right hand with her index and middle fingers pointing at the former Fever coach. She placed her left hand on the inside of her elbow to complete the celebration before running in the other direction.

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The celebration reminded a fan of Grizzlies star Ja Morant‘s celebration.

“Why CC is doing a lot of Ja Morant gestures lately? Idk or maybe I’m trippin’,” the fan commented.

“Talk yo s**t CC. I wanna see Iowa CC again,” another fan commented.

“She turned around before that ball even hit. Oh, she’s back. She’s back better than ever👏😍😍😍” another fan said.

Here are more reactions:

“Lin and Caitlin are both amazing people! Love them both!” one fan said.

“I think she’s gonna hit a game-winner this season,” another fan commented.

“😂😂 She’s such a goof,” another fan said.

Fans comment on Caitlin Clark's 3-point shot in Linn Dunn's presence.Fans comment on Caitlin Clark's 3-point shot in Linn Dunn's presence.
Fans comment on Caitlin Clark’s 3-point shot in Linn Dunn’s presence.

Clark and the Fever begin the season on May 8 in a game against the Dallas Wings.

Caitlin Clark makes her thoughts on Lin Dunn clear

Lin Dunn has always showered praise on Indiana’s superstar guard. In return, Clark has honored the Fever legend on occasions. On Tuesday, Clark dropped in the comments section of the post featuring a video of her sinking a 3-pointer in front of Dunn to make her thoughts clear on the former Fever coach.

“Lin is my everything,” she wrote.

Caitlin Clark shares her thoughts on Linn Dunn.Caitlin Clark shares her thoughts on Linn Dunn.
Caitlin Clark shares her thoughts on Linn Dunn.

Caitlin Clark had a great rookie season. She averaged 19.2 points, 5.7 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game to win the Rookie of the Year award. The Fever superstar won the award by 66 of 67 votes, one vote short of being a unanimous win. However, for Dunn it was an unanimous win.

“As far as I’m concerned, she’s the unanimous Rookie of the Year,” Dunn told IndyStar in October 2024. “It’s not even close with the accomplishments that she made, how she affected our team, you know, she just had a phenomenal season. And so kudos to her, flowers to her. She deserved this recognition because she absolutely earned it on the court.”

Lin Dunn and Caitlin Clark share a good relationship, which is a positive sign for the Fever fans and the franchise’s growth.

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