1. New Mexico Lobos

The Lobos are in the midst of a major turnaround. Last season UNM had its third coach in three years, and Jason Eck produced in year one; year two offers some more stability, and they return 12 starters from last season’s 9-3 squad.

Most notable among those returnees are QB Jack Layne and LB Jaxton Eck.

Layne has some tools to work with on the offensive side of the ball, with WR Troy Omeire and TE Cade Kaith poised for potential All-Conference campaigns.

Jason Eck was a lineman on the power-rushing Wisconsin teams of Barry Alvarez in the 90s, and the ground game will be key. They have a good back running the ball in Scottre Humphrey, and he’ll be running behind a line anchored by All-MW caliber G Malik Aliane.

The biggest key for the Lobos this season might be the schedule as they have UNLV, Air Force, and North Dakota State all coming to Albuquerque.

The Lobos could be set to claim their first conference crown since 1964.

2. UNLV Rebels

While the Rebels might have the most talent-laden team in the league, I see them falling to New Mexico in the standings due to a less favorable schedule.

UNLV will need to replace Anthony Colandrea at the QB spot, but Jackson Arnold should step in and perform as well if not better.

Dan Mullen has been successful at bringing P4 transfers to Vegas, and Arnold is another in that line coming from Auburn via Oklahoma.

He started a combined 17 games for the Tigers and Sooners over the last two seasons, completing 63% of his passes and throwing 18 TDs with just five interceptions. He should command this Rebel attack with efficiency.

Jai’Den Thomas returns and will offer a stable ground game.

Last season, the defense let the Rebels down in their losses, and they need to improve. A year ago, they allowed 28 points per game and 419.1 yards per outing. The offense will be potent, but those numbers need to improve.

The Rebels want to step up and be a P4 program, and perhaps the Big 12 is a future destination; if that is to be the case, they will need to step up and hold off the other up-and-comers in the Mountain West to prove they are worthy of making the jump.

Once again, the Rebels will need to get it done with a nearly complete overhaul of the roster.

3. Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors

Timmy Chang has done a remarkable job of turning around a dire situation at his Alma Mater. Now, in his fifth season at the helm, he appears to have the Warriors rolling.

Following a 9-4 season last year, Hawaii is ready to take the next step. With QB Micah Alejado back to lead a potent offense, the sky is the limit.

Alejado is the best QB in the conference and has a slew of weapons to work with in the passing game, notably Pofele Ashlock and Nick Cenacle. Both are athletic WRs who can stretch the field and pose a matchup nightmare for opponents.

On defense, UH needed to fill in some holes lost from a season ago. They loaded up with linemen and should be a much deeper group up front than they were a season ago.

The secondary was rebuilt through the portal. Look for Wynden Ho’ohuli to be a force at LB. The transfer from Nebraska could be a tackling machine while also creating havoc off the edge.

4. North Dakota State Bison

The Bison have been dominant at the FCS level over the last decade and a half with 10 FCS National Championships in the last 15 seasons.

They make the jump to the FBS and the Mountain West and are certainly capable of competing for a conference crown in year one, but they certainly do not have an easy path.

NDSU not only plays each of the other teams listed in my top five, but it also plays all four of them on the road.

This will be a veteran team, but they are replacing most of their skill players from a season ago.

NDSU always runs the ball well, but last season they also opened it up, leading the nation in downfield passing with 16.6 yards per completion. That would have been second best in the FBS in 2025.

Nathan Hayes will guide the offense this season; he is a fifth-year senior but has only attempted 37 passes in his collegiate career. DJ Scott should get the bulk of the carries and is a powerful back who was listed on the All-MVC team last season.

The Bison pride themselves on running the ball, and that is their identity on offense.

The other key for NDSU is playing good defense, and they have always been among the best in FCS on that side of the ball.

Their 4-3 look has limited opponents in the past, and this season the unit should be led by DT Keenan Wilson, who could be an all-conference performer in his debut season in the Mountain West.

5. Air Force Falcons

It has been over a decade since the Falcons played for a conference title, back in 2015. That is a long drought and hard to believe.

Over the last two seasons, Air Force has gone just 9-16 and collected just six conference wins during that time

This season should see a much-improved team, and a big reason is the return of Liam Szarka at QB. There is no secret about what the Falcons will want to do on offense. They will run the ball very well and be among the best in the nation moving the ball on the ground.

Last season, the defense was what let Air Force down, as it was virtually non-existent; the Falcons struggled to come up with stops on third down, ranking second-to-last in that category nationally.

The secondary and LBs should have plenty of talent and depth. Blake Fletcher figures to be among the best LBs in the MW. If the defensive front can stop the run and control the line, the Falcons will make some noise.

The last time the Falcons came off consecutive losing seasons was 2019; that year, they bounced back with an 11-2 season. Can Troy Calhoun and his squad see a similar improvement this season?

6. Wyoming Cowboys

This is a big season for Jay Sawvel and the coaching staff. If the results are not better than last year, there could be a coaching change ahead of next season.

Under Craig Bohl, the Cowboys were a consistent bowl team. They have not sniffed a bowl game in the last two seasons.

Last season, the offense was abysmal. The Cowboys did not score much and struggled to move the ball, especially over the last four games, averaging 6.0 points per contest, and failing to score more than seven in any of those matchups.

Tylet Hughes will offer a lot of athleticism at the quarter spot; he should be a playmaker. Tote Harris should be an effective runner for UW.

The defense was solid last season, and while there will be new faces this season, it should be a case of next man up. Jay Sawvel’s coaching background is on the defensive side of the ball, and that unit has been solid during his first two campaigns.

Look for the defense to keep the Cowboys in games. If the offense can find a way to put the ball in the end zone more often this season, Wyoming should end its bowl drought.

7. Nevada Wolfpack

This is Year Three for Jeff Choate, and for the first time in his tenure in Reno, the Wolf Pack look like they could have a real chance at winning.

The key to potential success would be a more explosive offense.

Last season, the offense struggled, and slow starts were a major problem as Nevada was outscored 72-29 in the first quarter of games.

Carter Jones took his lumps at QB last as a freshman but should be more productive this season, provided he holds off UCLA transfer Luke Duncan for the job.

Whoever ends up under center will need to be more productive in the passing game than the Pack was in 2025, and he will have more options to throw the ball to.

In addition to Marshaun Brown returning on the outside, the Pack have added a lot of talent through the portal. Gary Givens has the potential to be an all-conference performer at receiver.

Dylan LaBarbera might be the most dangerous pass rusher in the Mountain West this season, creating issues off the edge, after recording 17 TFLS and 6.5 sacks last season..

The defense was good enough to keep Nevada competitive at times in 2025. That unit should once again be the team’s strength.

Should the Pack get some production from the offense, they should be in the mix for a bowl.

8. San Jose State Spartans

Two years ago, expectations were low, and the Spartans overachieved. Last season, San Jose State was poised for a big jump with sky-high expectations, and they fell flat on their face.

This season, expectations are certainly tempered again, so will they overachieve again in Year Three under Ken Niumatololo?

The Spartans’ passing attack has been as good as any in the nation the last two seasons, and once again they should put up huge numbers through the air.

Luke Weaver will steer the passing game. Look for Jordan Anderson to be this year’s version of Nick Nash/Danny Scudero.

For the offense to be effective enough to return to a bowl game, the turnovers and interceptions will need to decrease.

The defense struggled to mount any semblance of a pass rush last year. And while there wasn’t much production in that department, the production that was there has moved on.

So, once again, the defense looks like it could be a problem for the Spartans. The majority of the stops for SJSU last season came from their trio of linebackers, now gone.

I am not optimistic about the Spartans overachieving this time around.

9. UTEP Miners

Scotty Walden has had a tough time of it in his first two seasons in El Paso, going just 5-19. The Miners struggled to a 2-10 record in 2025, and things don’t look that much better for this fall.

The offense had a ton of issues last season, and this is supposed to be a strength of a Walden-coached team. This season they should at least have some excitement at the QB position with EJ Colson entering the fold from Incarnate Word.

Colson is a burner and should produce some highlight reel plays. But behind the Miners line, he might have to use those wheels more often than he’d like.

UTEP was good at getting teams off the field on third down in 2025 and this season that should again be a bright spot. The secondary looks to have some playmakers the passing defense might keep UTEP in some games.

Even with an improved product on the field, the Miners record might not be much better in a more difficult Mountain West than in prior seasons. UTEP could be looking at a fourth straight season with four wins or less.

10. Northern Illinois Huskies

NIU has had some very good teams over the years and a lot of recent success in the MAC. The Huskies are coming off a tough 3-9 season, though, and an offseason that saw major transitions.

The team is making a jump in competition to the MW. The roster is starting over in several spots, the travel will be a bear, and they must navigate it all with an interim head coach.

Rob Harley takes over a tough turnaround, leading the program into a new conference. But hey, at least he has a chance to make a big splash and do something amazing in his on-the-job trial run.

DaAree Rogers is a talented wideout, but will NIU have anyone to get the ball to him?  If they do, he can be electric in the open field. But what the Huskies will look to do is pound it out on the ground, with Telly Johnson leading a decent stable of backs.

The issue on defense will be stopping the run. Against the pass, the Huskies should be solid. But again, if NIU can’t keep opponents from running all over them, the pass defense won’t mean a thing.

Especially against some of the ground attacks they will face in the Mountain West.