It doesn’t seem as if the weather has turned spring-like yet in some parts of the country even though we are a week-plus into May, which complicates making MLB home run prop picks. A Mets-Rockies game this week was postponed due to snow. Some Midwest and East Coast teams are also playing often in windy conditions. Even tonight, the forecasts around the country aren’t great, although nothing should get rained out. Home runs go up when the temperatures do. It’s not rocket science. That being said, we have a pair of MLB home run picks.

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Over the past four MLB seasons, I’m up $1,681 on my MLB picks. You can find more of my picks at SportsLine, and in the member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server, a community of sports betting enthusiasts and SportsLine experts.

Last Friday, my MLB betting HR picks were the Braves‘ Ozzie Albies and Rangers‘ Joc Pederson. I’ll say this every week: If I recommend a home run, then obviously Over 1.5 total bases would be a smart and more likely alternative. Albies didn’t go yard at Coors Field, but did have a double. Pederson’s rough season continued last Friday at 0-for-3, but he was a longshot play for a reason

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Top Friday MLB home run picks

Juan Soto, Mets (+249, DraftKings)

The 27-year-old Soto has hit at least 40 homers in back-to-back seasons but has only four this season. Granted, he landed on the injured list for a while and has been limited to 22 games. And it surely would help Soto to see more hittable pitches once All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor is back off the injured list and atop that New York lineup.

Soto did end a five-game homer drought on Wednesday, but that shot almost gets an asterisk because it was at Coors Field. He’s still only batting .174 this month and slugging .391. But he will be playing at hitter-friendly Chase Field in Phoenix on Friday and facing a struggling right-hander in Ryne Nelson, who is 1-3 with a 6.61 ERA and seven homers allowed in just 31.1 innings. At home, he’s been even worse: 0-2 with a 14.40 ERA and four homers allowed in three starts spanning 10.0 innings. 

You can’t really play Soto against lefties right now as his OPS against them is a paltry .632 with a single homer. Against Nelson, he is 3-for-12 with two homers and a triple. 

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Zach Neto, Angels (+590, FanDuel)

I’m assuming you have seen the baseball movies “Major League” and “Bull Durham,” among others. Those show you how baseball guys are more superstitious, it seems, than any other pro athlete. Hall of Famer Wade Boggs, for example, would only eat chicken before every game, earning the nickname “Chicken Man.” Hey, whatever works for you.

One of my favorite stories of this MLB season happened Tuesday when Zach Neto, the Angels’ shortstop, entered the game hitless in 18 straight at-bats to see his average drop 30 points. He hadn’t homered since way back on April 10. So what did Neto do prior to Tuesday vs. the White Sox? Opened some Pokémon cards with future Hall of Famer Mike Trout.

“He texted me [Tuesday morning] about ripping Pokémon cards, and if we found a Charizard card, I was going to hit a home run,” Neto said postgame. And both Neto and Trout went yard. Bring that deck to Toronto for Friday’s opener fellas!

Neto has pretty good power for a not-towering shortstop, having hit 26 bombs last year. He has six in 38 games in 2026. Neto will be facing the nasty Dylan Cease tonight, and he wouldn’t normally be a guy I’d recommend a home run prop against because Cease strikes out and walks so many that oftentimes the ball isn’t put in play. He has only allowed one dinger in 38.1 innings.

But Neto has good limited splits off Cease at 3-for-7 with two homers, good for an OPS of 1.786. That’s fantastic at this price. I certainly wouldn’t play Trout for a homer as he’s 2-for-12 with no extra-base hits and eight strikeouts vs. Cease. Nolan Schanuel is 4-for-8 with a homer and double against Cease, so he’s another possibility. 

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Backlash will be the first WWE Premium Live Event since WrestleMania 42, and the Triple H-led creative team has put together a stacked card to ensure that it delivers. As of this writing, five matches have been confirmed for the event. Roman Reigns will defend the World Heavyweight Championship against his cousin, Jacob Fatu.

Seth Rollins and Bron Breakker will collide in a singles match, and IYO SKY and Asuka will battle it out from the women’s division. Trick Williams will defend the United States Championship against the former champion, Sami Zayn, while Danhausen will team up with a mystery partner to take on The Miz and Kit Wilson.

While the card looks good on paper, Triple H needs to feature one superstar at the Tampa PLE. We are talking about Oba Femi, who is riding a wave of momentum after retiring Brock Lesnar at The Show of Shows. The Ruler has decided to create an opportunity for the roster by hosting open challenges.

Femi has established himself as a major threat by dominating The Beast Incarnate at WrestleMania 42. Anyone who steps into the ring with The Ruler would receive a major opportunity to potentially defeat the man who ended Lesnar’s in-ring career.

On this week’s WWE RAW, the Nigerian star hosted his first open challenge, which was answered by The Alpha Academy. Tozawa first stepped up to Femi, but quickly realized that it wasn’t a fight worth picking. However, Otis then came face-to-face with The Ruler, and a match began between the two behemoths.

Despite Otis’ size, Femi made quick work of him, defeating the heavyweight in a squash match with a Fall From Grace. Despite all his momentum, Oba Femi isn’t booked for Backlash, something Triple H needs to change.

Femi must come out unannounced at the event and host another open challenge. Having him call out anyone on the roster at a major event would boost his open challenge’s credibility. Moreover, after a career-defining victory over Brock Lesnar, Oba Femi needs to be showcased at the following PLE.

WWE Hall of Famer compares Oba Femi with Goldberg

On a recent episode of his Kliq THIS podcast, Kevin Nash compared Oba Femi’s current presentation with Goldberg’s in WCW. The WWE Hall of Famer stated that The Ruler needed to have some vulnerability. If he continues to dominate, it would risk fans turning on him.

“There are a lot of similarities with Goldberg, like the chanting. Bill had a very specific ring entrance; Oba has a very specific ring entrance. It’s chantable. They were both super over, super quick. To me, it’s just like, he’s got to be vulnerable, or they’ll build the exact same thing they did with Bill, where now it becomes cool to go against him because they started to boo when Bill became so successful,” the WWE Hall of Famer said.

It remains to be seen what the future holds for Oba Femi in WWE. Who will be the next person to step up to The Ruler and accept his open challenge? Only time will tell!