There are seasons where whole careers happen, and Roki Sasaki is in the middle of one right now. Sasaki was so bad in his return to the rotation this spring that the Dodgers faced questions about whether he would actually make the rotation, and when he opened the season with a 6.35 ERA by the end of April, most Fantasy players had pretty much written him off. Given how bad he was last season as a starter, that made sense.
But Sasaki kept tinkering. He changed his slider shape to a harder version in the offseason, and then around the end of April he started working on a harder version of his splitter, too. That change was the most interesting one, as he deprioritized the loopier, harder-to-command version of the pitch (now classified as a forkball) for a few starts and gave himself a version he can throw for strikes or whiffs more consistently.
That change helped Sasaki stabilize, and then a velocity bump over the past few starts has seen him absolutely take off like a rocket ship. We have arguably seen the three best starts of Sasaki’s career in his past four, with the apex unquestionably coming Friday against the Angels, where he struck out 10 over seven shutout innings. It’s the first time he has had double-digit strikeouts in a major-league start, and the first time he has thrown that many innings without allowing a run.
All of a sudden, Sasaki has a 2.55 ERA with 38 strikeouts and only eight walks in 35.1 innings since the start of May. It’s not just the best stretch of his career; it’s the first time Sasaki has looked even remotely close to justifying the hype he carried into the majors. In fact, over the past few starts, I’d argue he’s actually just living up to the hype. It’s still a small sample size, and it might be especially dependent on Sasaki sustaining the velocity jump; his fastball unsurprisingly looks like it plays a lot better at 98 mph than 97 and below, and that velocity may not last, of course.
But right now, I think we have to take Sasaki’s breakout at face value. Maybe it blows up in our faces, but the upside he has shown lately is too much to ignore. He’s still available in about a quarter of CBS Fantasy leagues, and that number should be approaching zero by the time waivers run this week.
Here’s who else we’re looking to add ahead of Week 12:
Week 12 Waiver Targets
Catcher
Francisco Alvarez, Mets (35%)
Alvarez continued his rehab assignment this weekend and, assuming he gets through the next few days, he could be back as soon as this week’s home stand, beginning Tuesday. Alvarez has been out for a bit less than a month after surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee, and while there’s always a risk of lingering effects with any kind of surgery (let alone Alvarez’s relatively swift recovery from this one), Alvarez was showing signs of breaking out before the injury, posting both his lowest strikeout rate and highest expected wOBA on contact ever. I still think there’s the potential for Alvarez to be a top-12 catcher in Fantasy the rest of the way.
Deep league option: Endy Rodriguez, Pirates (7%) – Rodriguez is having a weird start to his season. He’s hit just .225, but has a .404 on-base percentage thanks to 12 walks in 16 games. The Pirates have cycled through a trio of once-hyped former prospects over the past few years, and Rodriguez is at least showing some signs of life lately, making him worth a look in OBP leagues with two catcher spots.
First Base
Bryce Eldridge, Giants* (51%)
Eldridge needs one more appearance at first base, which could come any day. Maybe that lack of eligibility is what’s holding his roster rate back, because the top slugging prospect is hitting like he belongs on rosters in a lot more than just one out of every two leagues. He has three multi-hit games in the past seven (and has hit safely in nine straight), while striking out just 24.4% of the time. We haven’t seen a ton of over-the-fence pop from Eldridge, but he is hitting the ball hard and putting it in play regularly and even holding his own against lefties. It feels like he’s about to take a huge step forward and should be adding first base (and corner infield) eligibility any day now. It’s time to buy.
Deep league option: Paul Goldschmidt, Yankees (17%) – All of a sudden, Goldschmidt is being used like an everyday player. That probably won’t last long, but with the Yankees’ injuries to their corner and DH options, he has now started 15 straight games entering play Sunday. And his success doesn’t really feel like a fluke, as his .371 xwOBA for the season fully backs up his actual .376 mark. I don’t necessarily think it’s fair to expect Goldschmidt to keep it up all season long, but he’s been remarkably productive as basically a full-time player for the past month-plus, so why not just ride the hot hand here and see if he can keep it up? At least until the playing time questions come back.
Second Base
Sam Antonacci, White Sox (56%)
Second base is a bit deeper than we expected coming in, but that’s okay, because the outfield looks weaker, and you can use Antonacci in either spot. You aren’t going to get much power out of him, but I really don’t see much reason to be skeptical about his performance otherwise so far – his .288 batting average would be pretty exceptional even without knowing it is backed up by a .309 xBA. He’s getting on base a ton while primarily hitting near the top of the lineup, so runs and steals should be a pretty big part of his game, too. I think Antonacci looks like one of the most under-rostered players in Fantasy right now, even in points leagues.
Deep league option: Jacob Gonzalez, White Sox (22%) – Gonzalez is more or less being used as the Munetaka Murakami replacement in the White Sox’s lineup, and he’s more or less holding up his end of the bargain. A .300-plus batting average is going to be tough to sustain with his swing and miss issues, but he hit his first homer Saturday and has an average exit velocity of 91.2 mph so far in the majors, a sign that he hasn’t been overwhelmed. As a cheap source of power, Gonzalez remains very interesting.
Third Base
Curtis Mead, Nationals (56%)
It might all fizzle out in the end, but Mead deserve a lot more credit than he’s getting right now. He’s been productive all season long, but didn’t matter much for Fantasy because he just wasn’t playing enough. Well, he has started 13 of 16 games since May 20, including eight of 11 against righties, and he has gotten multiple plate appearances in two of the three he didn’t start, too. This is a full-time player right now, and he’s hitting .268/.339/.554 in that span and has the underlying numbers to match it. We might just be seeing a delayed breakout from a recently well-regarded prospect, ala Miguel Vargas and Michael Busch.
Royce Lewis, Twins (35%)
For a player like Lewis, I’m not sure much we can really learn from the fact that he absolutely crushed Triple-A to the tune of a .333/.403/.900 line in 15 games after his demotion. He’s a five-year MLB veteran, of course he should be dominating Triple-A. So, I’m mostly just hoping that the trip back to the minors serves as a little reset for a guy who we know is talented but who might just be getting in his own way. One interesting wrinkle here is that Lewis is playing second and first base since his return from the IL, giving him a couple of extra avenues to a lineup spot and to your lineup if the bat comes around. If he plays like we saw in the first few stints of his MLB career, Lewis’s bat will play anywhere, but having extra eligibility never hurts.
Deep league option: David Hamilton, Brewers (13%) – Hamilton is the kind of player where, on those occasions he gives you more than just stolen bases, it’s a nice bonus. He’s 8 for 23 since the calendar flipped to June, so we’re getting a little something from him lately. It likely won’t last, but we’ll take it from a guy with eligibility at three different infield positions.
Shortstop
Edwin Arroyo, Reds (25%)
Arroyo needs to get hot quickly to force his way into the lineup a bit more consistently for the Reds. He has started four of six games since getting called up, splitting time between shortstop and second base, and it’ll be easier to make the case for him when he gains eligibility at second – he had his fourth appearance there Sunday, so it’ll be whenever he makes his next one. Elly De La Cruz is recovering well from his hamstring injury, so Arroyo could be ticketed for a return to Triple-A in the next few weeks, but he also has a real chance to force the team’s hand if he gets hot and starts to outplay Matt McLain. Arroyo was hitting .323/.383/.562 in a breakout season at Triple-A, and is one of the few high-upside options at shortstop who isn’t already widely rostered.
Deep league option: Jett Williams, Brewers (17%) – The Brewers are once again on pace for 100-ish wins, and they’re doing it this time by getting basically nothing from their third basemen, shortstops, and corner outfielders offensively. And wouldn’t you know it, Williams has extensive experience playing shortstop, third, and the outfield. The Brewers are probably just waiting for Williams to get hot so he can hit the ground running in the majors, and it helps that May was a significantly better month for him than April was. It sure feels like his promotion has to be imminent.
Outfield
Noelvi Marte, Reds (51%)
I was hoping Marte could be a must-add player after his return from Triple-A, but the Reds maybe don’t have the same plans, as he has started just two of four games since his return this week. It doesn’t really make much sense to recall a 24-year-old without playing him everyday, especially after he went down to Triple-A and hit .369/.409/.575 in 40 games after his demotion. I still think Marte is the most talented of the outfield options on the roster and it probably wouldn’t take much for him to unseat Will Benson from his current role. He’ll just have to take advantage of the opportunities he gets when he gets them. Marte isn’t as obvious an add as he seemed when he was first recalled, but I still think the upside is worth chasing here, even if the current usage is frustrating.
Jasson Dominguez, Yankees (39%)
There are still some long-term questions about Dominguez’s role with the Yankees, but with Aaron Judge on the IL with a fractured rib and Giancarlo Stanton still recovering from a calf strain, he’s going to have some runway to prove himself. Dominguez started his rehab assignment this weekend as he recovers from a shoulder injury, and he should be back with the Yankees within the next few days. Dominguez has largely been a non-factor in the majors, but he’s still somehow just 23 and has hit .321/.394/.483 with a 20-homer, 50-steal pace in his Triple-A career, so I’m still pretty interested in seeing what he can do with a real chance in the majors.
Lars Nootbaar, Cardinals (13%)
I guess we’ve been disappointed in Nootbaar for long enough that there isn’t much residual excitement left. And I get it: He mostly stayed on the field last season, playing 135 games, and just wasn’t very good, hitting .234/.325/.361 with just 13 homers and four steals. However, he was playing through issues in both of his heels, so maybe the surgery that kept him out for the first couple of months this season helped get him right and will allow him to finally break out. It isn’t exactly the highest probability outcome possible, but I remain interested in the potential for Nootbaar to emerge as a
Jake McCarthy, Rockies (36%)
“Well, he was decent before, maybe Coors Field can elevate his bat” is a narrative we try to convince ourselves of every year that the Rockies are mired in this perpetual rebuild, and it often fails. But it might actually be working with McCarthy, who has emerged from a crowded outfield situation to play pretty much everyday for the Rockies. His .280 batting average isn’t backed up by the underlying stats, but that’s where the value of Coors Field comes in, as it impacts batting average most of all. McCarthy makes a decent amount of contact, will run, and has shown non-zero power. It’s not a profile that really works in a three-outfielder league, but McCarthy is useful enough in five-outfielder leagues if you’re looking for batting average and stolen bases help.
Colton Cowser, Orioles (22%)
All of a sudden, Cowser looks like he belongs again. He was pretty much dead and buried for Fantasy players when he put up a sub-.500 OPS through mid-May to open the season, but since he homered on May 17 he was hitting .348/.404/.696 before he homered for the second game in a row Sunday. He still isn’t an everyday player and will likely continue to sit against most lefties, but Cowser is at least playing every single day against righties and is a viable hot-hand play right now.
Starting Pitcher
Reid Detmers, Angels (65%)
The slow growth in Detmers’ roster rate makes sense. At this point, anyone playing Fantasy Baseball has probably already been run over and left on the side of the tracks by the Detmers hype train. But there’s still a lot to like about his profile if you can remove the disappointing history from your memory. There’s the 14-strikeout start a few weeks back, plus the very solid start against the Dodgers of all teams this week, which saw him twirl six shutout innings while striking out six. He’s always prone to blowup starts that can be tough to stomach, but Detmers’ skills look stronger than ever, with a 2.93 xERA and similar marks from other peripherals. It’s fair to take those with a grain of salt (Detmers’ career ERA is nearly three-quarters of a run worse than his xERA or FIP, after all), but I also think it’s okay to be open-minded about the possibility of him figuring some stuff out. Either way, there just aren’t typically pitchers with this kind of upside and skill set available on the wire while they are pitching well, so why not take the flier and see if something has changed?
Dustin May, Cardinals (57%)
The types of pitchers available on the wire at this point in the season typically look a lot more like May: Useful pitchers, but limited enough in their upside that it makes sense why nobody is sprinting to add them. That May was such a disaster early in the season that his overall numbers still look pretty bad certainly doesn’t help his case. But since he allowed 13 runs in his first two starts of the season he has just a 3.19 ERA in his past 10 starts, with a 2.99 FIP to go along with it. He doesn’t miss enough bats consistently enough to dream of May being a Fantasy ace, but he is backed up by a pretty solid Cardinals defense, so I don’t think the bottom is just going to drop out here, either. But his upcoming matchups against the Mets, Padres, and Royals – the latter two as part of a very enticing two-start week next week – should allow May to keep finding success, at least.
Gage Jump, Athletics (46%)
I’m still waiting for Jump to start missing bats, but it’s coming. In the meantime, he sports a 2.45 ERA through his first three MLB starts, mostly thanks to his ability to keep hitters off balance and avoid hard contact while limiting walks. Those are harder skills for a young pitcher to sustain, so he’ll need better than an 18% strikeout rate moving forward to find success. Jump got good enough strikeout numbers in the minors (and rates well enough in the various stuff metrics) to think the strikeouts will come, so I’m willing to get in on the ground floor with this exciting young pitcher before the breakout even comes.
Karson Milbrandt, Marlins (14%)
The Marlins pitching depth has taken a lot of hits, with the latest coming with prospect Thomas White being knocked out for the rest of the season with a left shoulder sprain. Milbrandt is one notable exception, as he has made the leap to Triple-A thanks to a big breakout at Double-A as a 22-year-old. That leaves him on the verge of the majors for a team currently using multiple relievers in their starting rotation. The Marlins generally like to let their prospects really marinate at Triple-A before promoting them, but Milbrandt’s success this season and their pressing rotation needs might force their hand earlier this time. It’s a name to know if you’re looking for someone to stash in a deeper league.
Relief Pitcher
Grant Taylor, White Sox (28%)
I don’t think the White Sox are likely to fully pull the plug on Dominguez until the trade deadline, because the goal here still has to be getting something for the veteran reliever. But it seems pretty clear that Taylor is the best reliever in this bullpen and should continue to get the occasional save. For now, you’re adding Taylor for strikeout and ratio help with the occasional save tossed in, with the hope that he’s the full-time closer sometime in July. If the White Sox keep hanging around the fringes of contention that plan could change, but that could also serve as its own incentive to get their best reliever into their highest-leverage situation, too. There are multiple paths here.
Alex Lange, Royals (11%)
I don’t think the Royals want to totally turn away from Lucas Erceg, as seen in him getting the save Sunday. Of course, even in a “successful” outing, he still allowed a run and had the go-ahead runs on base when he got the final out. Lange got the three saves prior to that, including with a three-strikeout effort Saturday. I don’t think the changing of the guard has fully happened yet, but Erceg is on shaky ground, and Lange seems most likely to take advantage if and when Erceg falters again.
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