It’s silly, and almost borderline reckless, to make Fantasy rankings changes after one preseason game. Especially since most of the people we actually want to draft played less than 20 snaps in one preseason outing.
But in this day and age of shared media and non-stop coverage, we all see what players are doing in almost-real football games, and it’s in our nature to react, if not overreact.
So let’s try to keep things in perspective and not rush players up or down the rankings because of one play or one game … except when it’s clearly obvious that a change is necessary.
Moves I made in my rankings based on Week 1 of preseason games
Moved: Michael Wilson closer to Marvin Harrison Jr. There’s no question that Arizona’s offense has evolved. If you were wondering which receiver, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson, would play a specific role based on what Mike LaFleur did in L.A., there’s good news: Both appear ready to run horizontal routes much like Puka Nacua did. At least in this game, all but one route for Wilson and two for Harrison were horizontal. Wilson not only looked just as twitchy as I remembered, but there was at least one play where he quickly improvised on a broken play and tried to make himself available to Jacoby Brissett, a small sign that maybe he’s learned not to just sit in the same spot and wait for the ball. Wilson was going at least 15 spots later than Harrison, depending on where you get your ADP — I felt that gap should be much closer. And neither has a strong case to lead the Cardinals in targets as long as Trey McBride is on the field, which he was barely on Thursday. Both are worth taking in Round 6 in PPR leagues.
Moved: Kyle Pitts over Isaiah Likely in full-PPR only. I found it amusing that all of Pitts’ targets came without Drake London on the field, but I was more intrigued that two of the three catches Pitts had were on slip screens that Tua Tagovailoa leaned on when pressured. It’s sorta like some of the targets David Njoku would have in Cleveland when his quarterback was pressured (Kevin Stefanski coached him). I lost sight of this during offseason evaluations and should give Pitts a bump for receptions for however long Tagovailoa plays. That was enough to move him ahead of Likely, who did not start and played 6-of-16 snaps with what was considered the first-team offense (Dart’s 14 snaps, Winston’s two snaps while Dart was out). Pitts by a nose over Likely around the Round 7/8 turn.
Moved: Carnell Tate down into Round 7. This was so much more about my dissatisfaction with the Titans offense than anything Tate did. He played nearly every snap with Cam Ward but had zero catches, didn’t flash that good acceleration I saw at Ohio State, and was tightly covered by a fourth-round rookie on a short out route in the end zone. That stuff can be cleaned up. What really floored me was Cam Ward’s struggling play after the team’s first drive. He completed 3 of his last 8 passes for 23 yards on a measly 3.8-yard average depth of throw while pressured (by backups) on three attempts and off-target on two attempts with a should’ve-been interception. Can that stuff get cleaned up? If Ward isn’t improved and if the offensive line isn’t improved, then I’m not sure how high expectations should be for Tate as a rookie, which is why I’m backing off of him with a top 70 selection.
Moved: De’Zhaun Stribling up into Round 11. Stribling got overloaded with targets as if the team wanted to fast-track him into the offense. He lined up across the formation, was used in motion, succeeded on the easy routes, and masterfully tracked a deep ball for a cool 32-yard gain. There were some welcome-to-the-NFL moments too, like getting whipped by Jermaine Johnson II on a pass block rep and not keeping his feet in bounds while running a route in the end zone, but that stuff doesn’t matter at this point. Officially having seven catches on eight targets over 15 routes run, Stribling finished with 63 yards but, more importantly, should have a solid role in a 49ers offense loaded with older pass-catchers. He’s got great contingency upside for a double-digit-round receiver.
Ja’Kobi Lane, Khalil Shakir, Caleb Douglas and Emmett Johnson up into late-round territory. Thought all four of these guys did enough to warrant a Fantasy draft pick. The rookie receivers are big guys capable of catching long balls; Shakir looked better suited as the No. 2 slot receiver for the Bills and might actually benefit from Moore being there; Johnson made a bunch of dudes miss and could be the guy to get late if you draft Kenneth Walker III. And I know Lane is the darling of training camp but I think moving him higher. Keep them in mind in the late rounds.
Did you read all of that and say to yourself, “that’s it?!” Well yeah man, that’s it. I don’t want to overrate the first week of the preseason. We’ve got two more of these weeks to go through, then player cuts.
I didn’t move any of these guys, but I thought about it
Didn’t move: Jeremiyah Love down into Round 4. Yes, Love looked like the dude who sped past college defenses at Notre Dame. But he didn’t do anything exciting until the second quarter when the Raiders backup defense was in the game. And two of his longer runs (8-plus yards) were behind fellow rookie Chase Bisontis, who’s lost for the year. And within days of the game, it was reported he suffered a high-ankle sprain, an injury that has hobbled many running backs for weeks. Love remains a late Round 3 pick, and the case can be made to settle on Kyren Williams ahead of him because of the ankle injury.
Didn’t move: Cam Skattebo down into Round 5. For the purposes of this game, the Giants first-team offense effectively played 16 snaps (14 with Jaxson Dart, two with Jameis Winston when Dart left the game). Skattebo played five snaps, Devin Singletary played four snaps and Tyrone Tracy Jr. played seven snaps — and none of the three played with the second-team offense. Are they all first-teamers? Is this a gross rotation? I can’t believe it yet, which is why I’m not moving Skattebo. But if it stays this way through the preseason, then it could be a mistake to count on Skattebo for high volume like we did last year (16-plus touches in 5 of 6 games before his gruesome injury), though I doubt New York would regularly give carries inside the 5 to either Tracy or Singletary. I did love Skattebo’s extreme violence when he did run. I guess I’m a little afraid to take Skattebo too soon, but not yet scared enough to dock him.
Didn’t move: Jonathan Brooks down into Round 7. I’m happy to see Brooks back with the Panthers and even more amped that he played every snap with Bryce Young except for two long third downs, plus he wasn’t afraid to get physical. I wish he had been a little more explosive on the (very) few times he encountered space, but the whole outing was hampered by second-stringers on the O-line struggling against many Bills starting defenders. I’m looking forward to seeing more and then hopefully moving him up from the Round 6/7 turn, if at all.
Didn’t move: KC Concepcion up into Round 8. He had already been a top 100 player going into the game, and his usage was in line with what was expected: Lots of short throws, a hand-off, a pop pass, all meant to take advantage of his speed and agility. He looked good against Bears backup defenders. Of course there’s still the whole are-there-any-good-quarterbacks-in-Cleveland thing, but as long as Concepcion is ticketed for a bunch of easy short throws on top of other downfield targets as well as occasional handoffs and pop passes, I am confident he can be a usable Fantasy option at some point. Round 9 or later is excellent for Concepcion.
Didn’t move: Vikings RBs up. Against a mix of Giants starters and backups, Jordan Mason had a crafty 15-yard zig-zag run, but teammate Aaron Jones beat him with a patient outside-zone 18-yard gain of his own! Jones actually was the guy who had at least four yards on each carry and didn’t look like a guy ready to surrender a ton of touches to Mason. This duo could be really great for the Vikings, particularly behind what looked like a more-coordinated starting offensive line that set the tone. This duo could also really annoy Fantasy managers looking for a late-round steal. Mason figures to remain the better back of the two, but both deserve Fantasy roster spots with Jones a possible depth-RB bargain at 110th overall.
Didn’t move: Jonah Coleman up into Round 10. Oh boy did I want to, though. I felt like Coleman was pressing on his first two runs, then after that showed much better vision to go with his better-than-expected burst and as-expected power against a mix of Falcons starters and backups. He did need work on his pass protection, which probably means obvious passing downs might not be in his future. Sean Payton has a long record of using multiple backs, so until Coleman is clearly locked into a valuable role, he’s a late-round stash. I do think this is a good time to remind you that Coleman converted 21 of 25 downs of 1 yard to go at Washington, including 5 of 6 at the one-yard line. Maybe that role is available. I kept Coleman in the Round 11 range; you may be able to snag him later.
What I’m watching in the week ahead
Running back injuries: Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs, Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price, J.K. Dobbins, Kyle Monangai. The biggie is McCaffrey, who has missed a week’s worth of practice due to “tightness.” Another week of him sitting out and taking Chase Brown and James Cook over him will be a lot easier to do. Hopefully we see all of these guys except Love back in practice soon.
Quarterback play: Jordan Love, Malik Willis. I liked the limited sample from both of these passers and can see a world where each one greatly outperforms ADP.
D.J. Moore’s ankle. I’m way more concerned about the 29-year-old’s ankle than anything else from the game. It was cool to see Moore used as a man-coverage beater. I did not think Moore was faster or more explosive than he was in Chicago. His volume’s gonna go up but we knew that, and that’s why how his ankle is handled is of significance.
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