By María Paula Mijares Torres

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists have run the numbers on the World Cup and — much as others have done — concluded that Spain are the most likely to come up winners in the epic football contest.

“Our prediction aligns with the historical pattern that the World Cup almost always comes back to Europe after having been won by a South American team,” Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a note Friday.

Goldman’s statistical model showed Spain with a 26 per cent probability of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The analysis combined historical match data, team rankings, scoring talent and geographic factors to forecast the tournament’s outcome. The model relies heavily on Elo ratings — a system originally created for chess, which measures team strength based on results and opponent quality.

Spain, the 2010 World Cup winner, currently holds the highest Elo rating, ahead of Argentina and France. Its odds were also supported by “scoring talent,” the Goldman team said.

France has a 19 per cent probability of becoming a three-time champion, Goldman’s model shows. Argentina slots in with a 14 per cent chance of becoming the first back-to-back winner since Brazil in 1962. Brazil is on 8 per cent, with England and the Netherlands at about 5 per cent.

For the semifinals, the model projects an all-Europe matchup of France versus Spain, and a battle between the South American giants, Argentina and Brazil. Goldman sees Spain ultimately defeating Argentina in the final in New York on July 19. 

Goldman’s model incorporates data from nearly 20,000 mandatory international matches played since 1978. Recent momentum and mentality factors were also part of the mix.

Teams with prolific scorers and strong recent performances tend to outperform, while reigning World Cup champions often struggle in the following tournament — hurting Argentina’s odds as defending champion — the Goldman analysis showed.

England was also downgraded despite a strong Elo ranking because of what the report described as historical World Cup underperformance and potential geographical disadvantages, including the possibility of playing Mexico in high-altitude Mexico City. 

Among the projected marquee matchups are a possible US-Iran game in the round of 32 and a quarterfinal between Argentina and Portugal that could feature a final World Cup meeting between Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.

Goldman said its model is “largely blind” to factors including health. Spain’s teenage star Lamine Yamal was injured in the run-up to the games and reportedly will miss the start of the contest.