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How a prediction market insured $3M in LSU title bonuses in 72 seconds

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It took 72 seconds to insure LSU’s national title hopes on the sports prediction market.

A third-party insurance company placed five trades on the prediction market Kalshi that could pay out $3 million if LSU wins the national championship this season, a Kalshi spokesperson confirmed to CBS Sports Tuesday. The number raised eyebrows this week when InGame, a publication covering sports betting and prediction markets, uncovered the trades, which match the exact cash figure LSU would owe coach Lane Kiffin in College Football Playoff bonuses if he wins the national title, according to a contract he signed in November.

The third-party insurance company, which Kalshi did not identify, purchased 837,500 contracts on LSU reaching the College Football Playoff, followed by contracts on LSU reaching the semifinals, the national championship game and winning a national title. Their last contract was on LSU reaching the quarterfinals. CBS Sports reviewed Kalshi’s trade data and confirmed the five blocks in which the buyer paid $662,050. The other side of the trade put up $2,337,950.

Spokespeople for LSU did not immediately respond to CBS Sports’ requests for comment.

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Large athletic departments typically insure the bonus structure in coaches’ contracts through third-party insurance companies. Insurers then pass that risk on to specialist reinsurers, including well-known marketplaces such as Lloyd’s of London. 

But a new trend to counter insurers’ risk has emerged among sports insurers: prediction markets.

The New York Times reported Feb. 10 that Kalshi had begun working with Game Point Capital, which CBS Sports could not confirm. The New York Times described Game Point Capital as an insurance company that helps college athletics departments, sports teams and sponsors manage the financial risk of performance incentives written into athletes’ and coaches’ contracts. Game Point had historically laid that risk off through Lloyd’s of London and later through American providers. It told the Times it expected to hedge roughly $30 million a year through Kalshi.

“We want to offer the most efficient pricing for teams and other clients,” Will Hall, Game Point’s co-founder and CEO, told the Times.

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Kalshi filed a rebate program with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in January, allowing members to offset risk from insurance contracts written on sporting outcomes.

LSU trade data on Kalshi (Aug. 13)

Covers

Executed

Price

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Cost

Payout if it happens

Makes the CFP

3:05:35 p.m.

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41¢

$343,375

$837,500

Reaches quarterfinals

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3:06:47 p.m.

29¢

$106,575

$367,500

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Reaches semifinals

3:06:05 p.m.

18¢

$84,600

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$470,000

Reaches championship game

3:06:16 p.m.

12¢

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$64,500

$537,500

Wins national title

3:06:28 p.m.

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$63,000

$787,500

All five

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$662,050

$3,000,000

Source: Kalshi public daily trade files

InGame reported that the LSU trades in August came from a third party that helps sports organizations hedge risks such as coach bonus payments, and identified Game Point — a Charleston, South Carolina, firm that lists the SEC, ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 among its clients on its website — as a company known to place such trades on Kalshi. Game Point would not confirm or deny involvement, InGame reported. Game Point did not immediately return CBS Sports’ request for comment Tuesday.

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“The only thing I can confirm is that it is the third-party insurance company,” Jack Such, a Kalshi spokesperson, told CBS Sports. He declined to name the firm. 

The playoff market was not busy on Aug. 13. The contract on LSU reaching the quarterfinals and title game traded exactly once all day — the block by the unidentified third-party insurance company. In the playoff market, 837,500 of the day’s 837,735 contracts were that single trade on LSU making the playoff, according to data CBS Sports reviewed. 

More eye-opening, according to trade data CBS Sports reviewed, was that the risk priced at $343,375 for LSU to reach the playoffs was the largest on the entire Kalshi market that day. It also happened off the exchange because the public couldn’t absorb a large trade block of 837,500 contracts at that moment, so it found a private counterparty, a Kalshi spokesperson told CBS Sports. Kalshi doesn’t pair the sides, the Kalshi spokesperson said. Firms solicit bids and let market makers find the other side willing to participate.

If LSU reaches the playoff, the payout is $837,500, which more than offsets the $750,000 bonus Kiffin would be owed for reaching the postseason event. If the Tigers win it all and hit all five rungs, the Kalshi payout — and Kiffin’s separate CFP bonus — increases to $3 million.

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Kalshi is not a sportsbook; it is a federally licensed exchange. With sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings, when a bettor picks a side, the sportsbook takes the other side, sets the price and books the risk. Kalshi doesn’t take a side. It matches buyers and sellers and collects a fee, an arrangement that resembles a stock exchange more than a casino.

People trade contracts on the Kalshi market with simple yes-or-no answers on topics such as politics, weather, pop culture, cryptocurrency, and sports.

Federal rules require Kalshi to publish trade data daily for the public. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission designated KalshiEX LLC a contract market in November 2020, the same status held by exchanges trading oil, grain, and interest-rate futures. 

South Carolina’s future was big on the market, too 

Kalshi confirmed to CBS Sports that similar trades involving South Carolina’s football program were placed July 15.

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The trade file shows four trades, though InGame confirmed two in its report. Three were on the Gamecocks making the CFP — 40,000 contracts at 5:33 p.m., then 40,000 more and another 50,000 in the space of 17 seconds just before 6:53 p.m. Nine seconds after that came a fourth: 100,000 contracts on South Carolina winning eight or more games.

Together they cost $41,300 and cover up to $230,000.

“The University of South Carolina does not have agreements with Game Point Capital or any other third-party insurer related to coaching bonuses, nor is aware of any arrangements to use trading markets to hedge against future bonus payments,” a South Carolina spokesperson told CBS Sports. 

South Carolina trade data on Kalshi (July 15)

Covers

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Executed

Price

Cost

Payout if it happens

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Makes the Playoff

5:33:14 p.m.

11¢

$4,400

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$40,000

Makes the Playoff

6:52:40 p.m.

11¢

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$4,400

$40,000

Makes the Playoff

6:52:57 p.m.

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11¢

$5,500

$50,000

Wins 8 or more games

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6:53:06 p.m.

27¢

$27,000

$100,000

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All four

$41,300

$230,000

Source: Kalshi public daily trade files

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Why would an insurance company use Kalshi and not another reinsurer?

Schools typically buy insurance policies against a large bonus they may owe in the future. The insurance company can then reinsure it through another company, but in Game Point Capital’s business plans, Kalshi has become the new offset. 

Such told CBS Sports the exchange is effectively acting as a reinsurer in these arrangements.

It has already happened in European soccer. In June, Semafor reported that a top-flight Spanish club facing relegation — and the loss of ticket and broadcast revenue that comes with it — was covered through Game Point, which routed the trade through commodities broker Greenlight Commodities and onto Kalshi. Susquehanna International Group took the other side. Hall told Semafor the firm wanted to see how prediction markets would handle a large, binary outcome. 

College athletics, however, is different. Kalshi works with integrity firm IC360, which maintains league- and NCAA-supplied lists of athletes, coaches, trainers and staff and screens them out of markets tied to their own sport, according to Kalshi’s market integrity disclosures.

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“None of the entities trading on Kalshi have material non-public information about the events that will happen,” Such said.

Still, many may see this as a school betting against its own team. “Betting against yourself is kind of a weird way to phrase insurance,” Such said.

The NCAA’s stance on prediction markets like Kalshi further muddies the waters. In December, Kalshi filed to include predictions on college players entering the transfer portal. NCAA president Charlie Baker said at the time he “vehemently” opposed college sports prediction markets. Kalshi stepped back and shelved the product.

One month later, Baker asked the CFTC to suspend college sports prediction markets until new safeguards are in place. In July, he repeated that message to Congress in written testimony, asking that the NCAA be consulted on which college markets are listed, along with secure player protection from harassment.

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The NCAA did not immediately respond to CBS Sports’ request for comment for this story Tuesday.

Kalshi is in state or federal court with at least 15 states and three tribal groups, according InGame. Judges in Michigan, Nevada and Washington have ordered restrictions on the platform.

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Grading USMNT summer transfers as Balogun deal collapses, Gio Reyna joins Strasbourg

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What started as a quiet transfer window for American players ended with a bang of the unfortunate variety as Folarin Balogun’s move to Everton eventually fell through, leaving the Monaco man in limbo. There were issues during his medical, according to reports, and while the deal was renegotiated, it unfortunately led to it not being completed, leaving Everton without an adequate number of strikers following Beto’s move to Fiorentina, and also sending Balogun back to Monaco after his wild summer.

From the highs of scoring at the World Cup to the red card being rescinded, that is one of the lasting stories from the tournament, Balogun’s summer has been a strange one, and that will only continue after he got so close to a return to the Premier League. But while he didn’t get his move, there were plenty of Americans who went to new clubs in Europe during the summer, from Gio Reyna leaving the Bundesliga to Americans flocking to the English Championship. Let’s take a look at those moves and what they could mean for Mauricio Pochettino’s national team moving forward.

Gio Reyna gets a fresh start

Transfer: Borussia Mönchengladbach to Strasbourg

The past few seasons have been lost ones for Gio Reyna between Nottingham Forest, Borussia Dortmund, and Borussia Mönchengladbach, but now he’s made a move to France to join Strasbourg. It’s a new environment for Reyna, but in getting his first start for the club, the American has gotten off to a strong start. Still only 23, if Reyna can make the most of this move to France, there’s no reason why he can’t get back to being a USMNT regular. A surprise addition to the World Cup squad, it’s clear that Mauricio Pochettino rates Reyna, and there’s the additional benefit of being in the Chelsea system, so if he really breaks out, either there’s a route back to the Premier League or to other clubs in the world. Grade: B

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Could Cole Campbell break out

Transfer: Borussia Dortmund to SV Elversberg

Another former Dortmund man getting a fresh start, Cole Campbell has become a record signing for SV Elversberg and has already gotten off to a good start, scoring his first goal for the German club. With the high expectations that they have for the 20-year-old, this is a great chance to show what he can do in a league that he’s familiar with. Get that done, and there could be national team call-ups and a place at the Olympics in his future. Grade: A

Zavier Gozo makes it two Americans at Crystal Palace

Transfer: Real Salt Lake to Crystal Palace

It has been quite the year for teenagers in the USMNT pipeline as Real Salt Lake winger Zavier Gozo has moved to Crystal Palace, where he’ll join Chris Richards. While his debut against Manchester City was tough sledding, that’s one of the hardest Premier League games that the 19-year-old will be involved in. Strong on the ball and also having the speed to keep up in the Premier League, this is a great move for him to develop at a higher level as the USMNT winger depth is improving rapidly. It’s always good to see when a club values a player like him, coming in by using them in their plans early, so it’ll be a move worth watching. Grade: A

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The American pipeline to the Championship has never been stronger

There are more Americans in England‘s second division by the day, so here’s a round-up of all the new additions to clubs.

  • Sebastian Berhalter (Vancouver Whitecaps to Middlesbrough): Moving to Middlesbrough and immediately slotting into the starting lineup, there’s so much to enjoy about Berhalter taking a step up from the Vancouver Whitecaps; he’s in a place where there are many familiar faces as an American quartet pushes for the Premier League together. Grade: A
  • Max Arfsten (Columbus Crew to Middlesbrough): Alongside Berhalter, the wing back is a new arrival at Boro, joining from the Columbus Crew. With so many American defenders already in Europe, Arfsten is the latest to follow their path. Grade: A
  • Rokas Pukstas (Hajduk Split to Middlesbrough): After growing as a player in Croatia, Pukstas is ready for his next challenge, joining the group of Americans pushing for the Premier League. Able to operate as a 10 or deeper in midfield, he’ll bring much-needed versatility to the squad. Grade: B
  • Caleb Wiley (Chelsea to Preston North End on loan): Constantly on loan from Chelsea, Wiley has made his latest move after spending last season at Watford. He scored on his Preston North End debut, which could be something that helps lead to a permanent move. Grade: B
  • Luca Bombino (San Diego FC to Stoke City): Another American to debut immediately upon joining their new club, the left back will be able to have a chance to make an impact. He’s only 20 years old and can also get up the pitch; this could be the start of something special. Grade: A
  • Jack McGlynn (Houston Dynamo to Stoke City): Wielding one of the best deliveries of any member of the USMNT, it will be an adjustment to such a physical league with his defensive liabilities, but if Stoke can use McGlynn correctly, it could be a serious boost to the club. Grade: B

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Ex-Pakistan Coach Calls Out PCB, Brutally Exposes Reason Behind Pakistan’s Decline: “Absolutely Ridiculous”

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The Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB)’s dramatic decision to sack Pakistan’s Test coaching staff and send seven players home midway through the series against England has left the cricket world in shock, and invited criticism from experts and fans alike. Former Australia and Pakistan head coach Mickey Arthur joined the list of critics on Tuesday, slamming the PCB for their drastic step. Arthur, who coached Pakistan from 2016 to 2019, accused the PCB’s instability for causing the “mess” that Pakistan cricket finds itself in.

With Pakistan 2-0 down in the ongoing three-match Test tour against England, the PCB sent seven players from the squad home, including star names like Mohammed Rizwan, Imam-ul-Haq and Salman Ali Agha.

Pakistan’s Test head coach Sarfaraz Ahmed and bowling coach Umar Gul were also released, and were replaced by their white-ball counterparts Mike Hesson and Ashley Noffke.

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Mickey Arthur made his frustration towards the PCB clear in a post on social media.

“Absolutely ridiculous decisions by the PCB – this is the reason they are in the mess they are in, because they constantly chop and change players, coaches and selectors, and there is no stability!” Arthur posted on his official X account.

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“Planning, stability and structure = Consistent performance!!” he added.

Arthur had enjoyed a fairly successful stint as Pakistan’s head coach between 2016 and 2019, leading the Test and T20I teams to the No. 1 spot in the ICC rankings, and the ODI team to glory in the Champions Trophy 2017.

Incidentally, Sarfaraz Ahmed – Pakistan’s recently-sacked Test coach – was the captain of the Champions Trophy-winning side under Arthur.

Updated Pakistan Test squad for Birmingham Test: Babar Azam (captain), Abdullah Fazal, Arafat Minhas, Azan Awais, Mohammad Abbas, Mohammad Ali, Muhammad Imran, Mohammad Imran Jnr, Muhammad Ghazi Ghori (wicketkeeper), Razaullah, Saad Baig (wicketkeeper), Saim Ayub, Sajid Khan, Saud Shakeel, Shan Masood and Ubaid Shah

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NFC East Predictions: Will Cowboys Or Giants Take Down Eagles At Top Of Division?

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The NFC East enters the upcoming season with its usual share of uncertainty and high expectations across all four teams. 

The Philadelphia Eagles are looking to earn the division crown for the third consecutive time after but after several offseason changes, the door may have opened for another team to knock the Eagles off.  

Dallas enters with a re-tooled defensive unit, New York looks to bounce back behind structural offensive upgrades, and Washington works through significant offensive line setbacks.

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With week one just around the corner, the “First Things First” crew predicted the NFC East, projecting how the season will unfold for the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, and Washington Commanders. 

Each panelist had a different pick for division champion, reflecting the uncertainty of the division of these four squads.

Nick Wright’s NFC East Prediction

1.

Philadelphia Eagles

2.

Dallas Cowboys

3.

New York Giants

4.

Washington Commanders

Nick Wright selected the Philadelphia Eagles to win the division with a 13-4 record, projecting the Dallas Cowboys in second at 9-8, the New York Giants in third at 7-10 and the Washington Commanders fourth at 5-12. 

Wright favored Philadelphia despite offseason roster turnover, pointing to quarterback resilience and potential trade deadline activity.

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“All offseason, I have said the Eagles could be 13-4, they could be 7-10, and firing Sirianni. I landed for the Philadelphia Eagles at 13-4,” Sirianni said. “I think A.J. Brown is addition by subtraction. I think they know the salary cap chickens are coming home to roost in the next couple years because of the void year, so they will be extra aggressive at the trade deadline, as [Eagles general manager] Howie [Roseman] often is.”

The Cowboys did not fully convince Wright as he projected them to miss the postseason. 

“Since Dan Quinn left, they’ve been awful. They’ve got nine wins. To me, I think they’ll be fun, interesting, but not good enough,” Wright said.  

He went on to pick New York third, expressing skepticism about quarterback Jaxson Dart. 

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“Jaxson Dart’s not wearing his hat backwards. He’s wearing it sideways and cocked with maybe a bandana underneath it. And it is not someone you can trust to be your franchise quarterback,” Wright said.

Wright added that Washington faces significant depth concerns.

“I don’t like their weapons. The offensive line is banged up. They have a bad defense,” Wright said.

Chris Broussard’s NFC East Prediction

1.

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Dallas Cowboys

2.

Philadelphia Eagles

3.

New York Giants

4.

Washington Commanders

Chris Broussard differed at the top of the standings, picking the Dallas Cowboys to win the division, followed by the Philadelphia Eagles in second as a playoff wildcard, the New York Giants in third, and the Washington Commanders in fourth. Broussard expects an improved defensive unit to propel Dallas to the top spot.

“Love the offense. Expect a huge year from Dak and his receivers. Love the new defensive coordinator Christian Parker and the additions that they made. I think their defensive line is going to be tough with Quinnen Williams and all these guys,” Broussard said.

Regarding the rest of the division, Broussard projected Philadelphia to drop from the top spot while Washington struggles up front.

“Last year, they became the first team in 23 years to repeat as NFC champions. I don’t think there’s a three-peat. I would love to see Jayden Daniels have a bounce-back year, a terrific year, but that offensive line with Laremy Tunsil is now out with a tear. I think they’re gonna struggle, and I think the defense isn’t that great either,” Broussard said.

Broussard liked the head coaching hire of John Harbaugh for New York in third. 

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“Love the hire of John Harbaugh in New York. I think they desperately needed a culture change. I think he’s in the process of doing it,” Broussard said. “Defense should be better, but it’s a tough division. I got them third.” 

Broussard added that Washington will struggle up front. “I would love to see Jayden Daniels have a bounce-back year, terrific year, but that offensive line with Laremy Tunsil is now out with a triceps tear. I think they’re gonna struggle, and I think the defense isn’t that great either,” Broussard said.

1.

New York Giants

2.

Dallas Cowboys

3.

Philadelphia Eagles

4.

Washington Commanders

Danny Parkins projected a surprise shift in the division, picking the New York Giants to finish in first place, followed by the Dallas Cowboys in second, the Philadelphia Eagles in third out of the playoff picture and the Washington Commanders in fourth. 

Parkins put Dallas in second as a playoff team, anticipating a high-scoring offense. 

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“They’re going to be in the playoffs. They’re very good as the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys are going to throw 600 times. They’re going to score,” Parkins said. 

Conversely, Parkins expressed skepticism toward Philadelphia’s outlook following recent offensive struggles.

“All they were last year was a bottom half of the league team in points, passing yards, rushing yards, total yards, and third downs, and they lost A.J. Brown,” Parkins said. 

Parkins projected Washington at the bottom, pointing to head coach Dan Quinn and offensive line injury troubles. 

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“The Washington Commanders are in trouble, and I think Dan Quinn should be the heavy favorite to be first coach fired,” Parkins said. “When you need to keep your quarterback healthy and you have a bad offensive line and Laremy Tunsil goes down, that is just a very bad recipe.”

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Shubman Gill, Shreyas Iyer likely to attend BCCI meeting to review India’s dismal UK tour | Cricket News

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Shubman Gill, Shreyas Iyer likely to attend BCCI meeting to review India’s dismal UK tour

MUMBAI: The Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) has called a review meeting with head coach Gautam Gambhir, chief selector Ajit Agarkar and Centre of Excellence (CoE) head VVS Laxman at its Mumbai headquarters on Thursday to assess India’s recent performances and discuss the team’s roadmap going forward.There is also a possibility that India’s T20 captain Shreyas Iyer and ODI and Test captain Shubman Gill will attend the meeting.The review was originally planned after India’s defeats in Ireland and England, but was postponed because of the team’s two-Test tour of Sri Lanka.BCCI secretary Devajit Saikia will attend the meeting along with BCCI president Mithun Manhas.

England, Ireland, Zimbabwe and Sri Lanka tours under review

The reigning T20 World Cup champions lost the two-match T20I series in Ireland 2-0 in June. The poor run continued in England, where India lost the five-match T20I series 4-0. The 125-run defeat in Nottingham was the team’s biggest loss of the series. Under Shubman Gill’s captaincy, India also lost the ODI series in England 2-1.A source said the review will not be limited to those tours.“Not just the tours of the UK, the tours of Zimbabwe and Sri Lanka will be reviewed as well,” a source said.The meeting is also expected to focus on player injury management ahead of India’s upcoming Test assignments.India will travel to New Zealand in November for a two-Test series, and the BCCI wants to review the growing number of injury concerns in the squad.After the third ODI against England at Lord’s, Gill had expressed frustration over frequent injuries affecting the team during overseas tours.Jasprit Bumrah missed the Sri Lanka tour after aggravating his left knee injury.Even for India’s T20I series against Afghanistan, announced on Tuesday, the availability of four players is still uncertain. Bumrah, Washington Sundar, Nitish Reddy and Harshit Rana are scheduled to undergo fitness tests at the BCCI’s Centre of Excellence in Bengaluru on September 9.

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The Premier League’s obscene transfer window has broken football

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It’s entirely fitting that the biggest ever Premier League transfer, in the biggest ever Premier League window, summed up so much of this window – and, arguably, how a lot of normal football logic has gone.

By the time Chelsea and Manchester City finally sat down for proper talks on Enzo Fernandez, after months of distant tension, there was at least one obvious baseline for everyone. The Stamford Bridge hierarchy could point to the £116m that City themselves paid Nottingham Forest for Elliot Anderson. City had set this market.

Chelsea were going to insist on more for a World Cup-winning midfielder, leaving aside everything else. You could understand some of the logic, the same with the whole deal. It made sense for everyone. Fernandez wanted out, long playing into a situation where Chelsea wanted to sell, and this was the player new City manager Enzo Maresca wanted.

Chelsea sold Enzo Fernandez to Manchester City for £125m in the joint-biggest transfer in Premier League history
Chelsea sold Enzo Fernandez to Manchester City for £125m in the joint-biggest transfer in Premier League history (PA)

Everybody happy, and yet a lot of bad blood.

Similarly, that logic only goes so far.

Chelsea are directly strengthening a potential title rival, and the insistence on a more face-saving fee could have cost them in another way. Pushing for a record £125m ensured they didn’t ultimately get an alternative, despite that previously being a condition of any deal. Monaco sensationally backed out of the £47m sale of Lamine Camara, in just another illustration of usual norms being defied.

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At the same time, is Fernandez even worth anything near £125m? Is he really good enough to again be the most expensive player in the Premier League? City could say any value is relative, especially when their manager wanted him so much.

Others are saying that just shows how the idea of “value” has this summer “gone out the window”.

That was actually a line uttered to The Independent by a few different industry figures at various points over the last few weeks, reflecting how “bizarre” so many found this window. The various bits of theatre over deadline day were a thematically appropriate conclusion, as the collapse of the Lamine Camara deal and chaos at Everton played into a widespread sense of unhappiness and often “fury”.

Most conspicuously, there are the astoundingly high prices. Our Inside Football newsletter last Friday discussed the multiple reasons for this, from the broadcasting money long running through the division to the new profiles of ownership adapting to evolving financial rules. The clubs seem to be looking at the 85 to 115 per cent expenditure allowance as a target rather than a constraint.

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You could even describe it as “late-stage Premier League”, as a mirror of “late-stage capitalism”, and how a concentration of so much wealth erodes traditional norms. Because, beyond the bafflement of the prices, there’s the product of all that on Wednesday morning. None of it feels complete.

More money than ever before has ever been spent, at well over last year’s £3.14bn, but fewer clubs than ever seem to actually be… satisfied. It seems like there is so much unfinished business.

Arsenal still want that forward. Manchester United still want that left-back, as well as other areas. Liverpool still want an entire right side of the pitch.

And yet even pointing to some of these positions as if they are final pieces overlooks how so much of this window seemed to deviate from the old ideas of squad-building.

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That could be seen in the number of clubs looking to do a high quantity of deals so late in the window.

Even those recently seen as among the most forensic and forward-thinking, like Liverpool and City, were casting around chaotically. Look at the Cody Gakpo situation.

Manchester City were in talks to sign Cody Gakpo for £80m before switching to Everton’s Iliman Ndiaye
Manchester City were in talks to sign Cody Gakpo for £80m before switching to Everton’s Iliman Ndiaye (Getty)

City’s completion of the Fernandez deal probably leaves them as among the more content clubs, and their expenditure might usually see them as logical title favourites.

Others point to the absurdity of such expenditure continuing as the City case still goes unresolved. The club insist on their innocence. As regards the spending, they’d also point to the high revenue from sales.

On the pitch, though, can such a huge overhaul really work that quickly? Can a coach impose a system on so many new players?

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You can say the same of squads right through the division, from Crystal Palace to Hull City.

Premier League clubs are spending more than ever – but their business still feels incomplete
Premier League clubs are spending more than ever – but their business still feels incomplete (Getty)

Above all – or maybe below – Tottenham Hotspur perhaps sum up how it’s so hard to say whether the extent of the expenditure has even been worth it. They’re better, yes, but as good as their spending should dictate?

What deals even stand out across the division? It’s been hard to keep up, particularly with whether signings can even fit together. The Premier League list of transfers looks like the closing credits of a James Cameron film.

As one figure quipped, the scene at City as Manchester United surprisingly approached for Rayan Ait-Nouri, at the same time as they were doing Fernandez, must have been like the player trading in Moneyball. Just constant calls and activity.

Manchester City and Manchester United were prepared to do business, while Chelsea and Tottenham reached an agreement over the loan of Mykhailo Mudryk
Manchester City and Manchester United were prepared to do business, while Chelsea and Tottenham reached an agreement over the loan of Mykhailo Mudryk (Reuters)

For the Premier League as a whole, though, that description probably goes beyond a joke. Many sources have likened the sheer quantity of business to the trading in American sports.

A common opinion is that more deals than ever seem to be made for business reasons rather than football reasons.

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A significant part of that is adapting to financial regulations, as Aston Villa and Newcastle United would say they know well.

Ironically, or maybe inevitably, both look to have done good business. As we know well, though, only the pitch will tell us that.

On that pitch, the coaches now have to make sense of all this, but it does feel like a summer where even the growing influence of the sporting directors above them was superseded.

This window was more about the owners, and it is not a coincidence that we saw such American-style “trading” when there are so many American capitalists running clubs.

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You can even extend this to the way direct rivals like the Manchester clubs were willing to do business, in a way that used to be anathema.

Some insiders put it down to the reality that these owners already do business in many other fields. Others have noted the symmetry in dealings among clubs with recent regulatory issues.

Many of the same business figures would argue this is a sign of football reaching “maturity” – and how old emotions have been overridden.

Those emotions can still have an important effect, especially as regards the “feel” of a team.

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Unai Emery has seen has team change completely since leading Aston Villa to the Europa League
Unai Emery has seen has team change completely since leading Aston Villa to the Europa League (PA)

This could be divined in the rare piece of dissent over Everton’s attempt to sell the homegrown Harrison Armstrong. That feels an even more symbolic moment than might be realised, further accentuated by the bizarre state of the David Moyes’ squad. As one social media meme is already going, they have more stadiums than right-backs.

Arsenal were meanwhile rare in building a squad to a specific idea, which is linked to how Mikel Arteta is the Premier League’s longest-serving coach.

And yet it still left them feeling the most acute frustration, as they couldn’t sign the star in Julian Alvarez that they – and arguably the whole division – needed.

That’s one virtue that LaLiga, or really LaLiga’s big two, has over the Premier League.

Brentford, Brighton and Bournemouth are meanwhile rare in standing apart from much of this, and doing business in their own way.

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The oddity is that there is increasing testimony of other clubs moving away from such a data-led approach.

The huge deals between English clubs make that obvious. None of them suggested forward-thinking analytics

The Premier League has never seen such turnover, and that from a lot of old logic being overturned.

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The Vikings’ 1st-Round Selection Earns Some More Doubt

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Video board on NFL Draft stage showing “The Pick Is In” for the Minnesota Vikings during the third round in Green Bay
Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; April 25, 2025; A wide shot captures the stage video board displaying “The Pick Is In” for the Minnesota Vikings during the third round of the NFL Draft, as fans and team personnel await the announcement inside the draft theater in Green Bay. Mandatory Credit: Perry Knotts-Getty Images

The Vikings’ 1st-Round selection — DT Caleb Banks — is facing some reasonably intense scrutiny. Why?

Well, a few reasons.

For starters, he went in the opening round, meaning he is facing high expectations just by nature of being chosen high. Par for the course.

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Do note, though, he was ranked a lot lower than No. 18 by a lot of analysts, meaning many felt like the Vikings reached for the talented Florida defender. Furthermore, there was a widespread expectation that Minnesota would opt for safety Dillon Thieneman, the athletic Duck who was still available. Instead, fill-in GM Rob Brzezinski opted to go bold, creating instant buzz about the major swing.

The Vikings’ 1st-Round Selection Facing Some Doubt

On The Athletic, Nick Baumgardner ventures into a league-wide analysis of the preseason effort of the recent 1st-Round picks.

Check out some of his opening preamble: “It’s just about time to start finding out which teams struck gold and which might’ve whiffed in the 2026 NFL Draft.” Some more on the approach: “Let’s look at how this year’s first-rounders performed in the preseason. Who were the winners, and who needs more time?”

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NFL: Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings
Aug 22, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings defensive tackle Caleb Banks (95) lines up against the Baltimore Ravens during the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images – Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Getting into the meat of the article means beginning with a “Preseason Winners” section. Thieneman, the expected Vikings selection who went to the Bears, sees his named included.

The analysis from Baumgardner: “Ben Johnson this summer compared Thieneman to a robot, in the best way possible, saying Thieneman’s work ethic from the start of spring drills through the end of camp was high level. Thieneman will be a day-one starter, as expected.”

Finding Mr. Banks means moving through the “Ready to Start” section to get to the “We’ll See” section. Banks then gets some tepid praise alongside some reasons for concern.

“Banks was a considerable gamble at No. 18 on draft night and, so far, still looks like one,” Baumgardner writes. “He has admittedly been out of shape this preseason after rehabbing a foot injury and looked downright bad early in August, although he improved by the end of camp. He’s a tough customer and a relatively quick turnaround wouldn’t be a surprise, but it’s far from guaranteed.”

Vikings DT Caleb Banls on the draft bigboard in Pittsburgh in 2026
Apr 23, 2026; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Florida Gators defensive lineman Caleb Banks is selected by the Minnesota Vikings as the number 18 pick during the 2026 NFL Draft at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

So far, there has been some reoccurring talking points surrounding the rookie lineman. His pad level is too high and he’s still getting back into game shape. He is raw and needs to prove he isn’t injury prone. Being able to refute these critiques can only come with time.

Per PFF, Banks had a very poor preseason effort, offering a 36.7 grade across his 68 snaps in three games. Seeing that sort of performance drag into the season means being a player who doesn’t demand playing time.

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At 18th overall, acquiring Banks was pricey. Quite possibly, he’ll end up being a bust; it’s not hard to connect the dots on how that possibility could calcify into reality. However, he boasts immense potential, meaning the Vikings’ 1st-Round selection could reasonably become a weekly terror who gives blockers headaches for 60 minutes.

Caleb Banks, 23, stands at 6’6″ and weighs roughly 325 pounds. Since watching him at training camp and in the preseason, my opinion has been that he’ll be as good as he wants to be. Neither talent nor potential are his issue. Both of Brian Flores and Ryan Nielsen are good coaches, so the kid has some great football minds in his corner.

NFL: Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants
Aug 15, 2026; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Minnesota Vikings defensive tackle Caleb Banks (95) looks on during the second half against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images – Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Expect him to be a backup in Week 1. He’ll need to earn his portion of snaps from that Packers game onwards.


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Senior Editor for Vikings Territory & PurplePTSD . Twitter & Bluesky: @VikingsGazette. Email: k.joudry[at]vikingsterritory[dot]com. Canadian. Jude 1:24-25.

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Arsenal’s big transfer failure leaves Mikel Arteta with one choice

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Long before Arsenal said no to Aston Villa’s high price on Morgan Rogers, or the club made clear the grand plans they had for Vinicius Junior and Julian Alvarez, there was another message that shaped their entire summer. And, just as significantly, the feel around the club right now.

That was Mikel Arteta’s grand appeal as he sat in Budapest’s Puskas Arena as a beaten Champions League finalist.

“We will have to start making some very important decisions if we want to reach another level,” the Basque said. “We are going to have to show that ambition because we are more than capable of doing it, but it is going to demand us to be very ambitious, very fast and very smart.”

This was naturally taken as a coded request for a star to elevate Arsenal’s attack, but they didn’t quite crack it.

They didn’t get that “absolute quality”, even if the club did show ambition and do some smart business.

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That has led to a few different perceptions on the squad, depending on the perspective. Above all, there’s the view that Arsenal should have behaved like champions, and stood on the neck of the rest of the Premier League.

They did pin some of it down.

The defence remains the strongest in the world, boosted by Ezri Konsa, with the midfield offering the most complete amount of configurations possible.

Vinicius Jr penned a contract extension at Real Madrid over joining Arsenal
Vinicius Jr penned a contract extension at Real Madrid over joining Arsenal (Getty)

All together, people both inside and outside the club are adamant it is by far the best squad in world football.

But still not a complete squad.

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The attack is more lacking than before.

As one source puts it, it can’t be considered a good window when you lose three Premier League-ready forwards and only bring in a single unproven forward, in Christos Tzolis.

There’s a lot of talk about how this puts “a microscope” on sporting director Andrea Berta, especially among some scepticism about the Italian’s approach at rival clubs.

Again, though, this partly depends on perspective.

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Julian Alvarez refused to entertain a move to Arsenal
Julian Alvarez refused to entertain a move to Arsenal (PA)

Some insiders say the failure to deliver on the one main ambition this summer is a corollary of delivering on everything last summer. They built the deep squad required that did win them the title.

This summer, Arsenal did need to make sales. And, in attack, they needed to go big.

Berta’s “wheeler dealer”, “spinning plates” approach to targets is now being criticised, but sources say there are two relevant perspectives on this.

One is that the “spinning plates” brought Konsa and Bruno Guimaraes, with the latter already being hailed as transformative.

Another is that approach was, rightly, not applied to the pursuit of that left forward.

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Arsenal knew that there was only a very limited pool of players that would satisfy what they actually needed, and most of them were at the big Spanish clubs. The only thing that would do for them was seeking to execute the most sensational deals.

Andrea Berta, Arsenal Sporting Director, looks on at the London Stadium
Andrea Berta, Arsenal Sporting Director, looks on at the London Stadium (Getty)

Arsenal did feel they had Vinicius, until Real Madrid made an contract offer that few expected. Florentino Perez ultimately couldn’t allow the loss of face of losing such a player.

Even those critical of Berta would admit that, in such situations, it’s better to wait and keep your discipline. It can sometimes be worse to get the wrong player for the sake of it, especially in a market with such unusually high prices.

Some would go further, and say it was the toughest job of any sporting director. It’s not like Tottenham Hotspur or Chelsea, who had a lot of room to grow.

Against that, others would point to one of the Chelsea players that Arsenal will be facing this weekend, in Rogers. Football is often good for the timing of such sub-plots.

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One view has it that Arsenal waited too long, allowing the price to go up with Elliot Anderson’s, while they had an eye on the more fanciful pursuit of Vinicius.

Chelsea outbid Arsenal in the race to sign Morgan Rogers
Chelsea outbid Arsenal in the race to sign Morgan Rogers (Reuters)

An explanation within the club is that it wasn’t about waiting but respecting a World Cup campaign, as Chelsea came in with a valuation that Arsenal were never going to match.

If much of that is reasonable, right up to the pursuit of stars, less understandable is the net effect on the attack.

Even figures within the club cannot understand how the forward line has less depth than last year, while also having less pace. They argue that the sales that led to this characterised a more haphazard approach late in the window. Or, as one source lambasts, “all over the place”.

Others within the club would contend that sale opportunities had to be taken for those that weren’t going to play as much, and that there was a longer-term situation with Gabriel Martinelli than just selling late in the window. The Brazilian has talked of leaving in the past.

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Tzolis was signed to replace Trossard but Arsenal wanted more to address the left wing position
Tzolis was signed to replace Trossard but Arsenal wanted more to address the left wing position (Reuters)

Arteta and his staff will meanwhile look to coaching solutions. While Eberechi Eze will now adapt more to the left-sided role he was initially intended for, his deployment there will also bring a tweak to the formation that sees Riccardo Calafiori and Piero Hincapie surge outside. That could already be seen in Bukayo Saka’s goal against Aston Villa.

Saka and Madueke can also operate on the left, while Mikel Merino has now fully learned the centre-forward position. And the World Cup winner is now fit.

If part of Arteta’s will for an “x-factor” forward was because too many of last season’s matches involved low margins, that was largely because most of the first-choice attack was absent.

All of Kai Havertz, Martin Odegaard and Saka missed long stretches of the season.

The hope is that will now be different, and that the trio playing consistently will change perspectives there. One note of caution, however, is whether Arteta himself has truly evolved from last season’s climax as regards intensity of training and use of players; whether he fully realises the need to keep it lighter in a packed schedule, or if he will persist in constantly playing his best sides as much as possible.

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Arteta is being creative with his solutions to not signing an elite left winger
Arteta is being creative with his solutions to not signing an elite left winger (PA)

If it gets to that, though, Arsenal are likely to do business in January. Bournemouth’s Eli Junior Kroupi will almost certainly be an option. The situations of Alvarez and maybe even Vinicius could actually have changed.

Mere mention of January only reminds some in the club that they should have gone for Antoine Semenyo earlier this year. He wanted to come, at what would have been a relatively low price. It would have solved a lot, and there’s an element of regret.

Arteta is said to have taken note of how Manchester City just went and did it.

He still has his champions in fine shape, and appropriately as one of the few that adhere to classic ideas of actual squad building. That advantage is undeniably linked to Arteta’s own status as the longest-serving manager, in a rare position of complete control.

It’s just that, by successfully building the best squad, one big failure has been felt more acutely than almost anyone else.

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Biggest Presidents Cup pick mirrored big-picture Ryder Cup decision

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UCLA Replaces Athletic Director Martin Jarmond With Former Lakers Executive Tim Harris

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UCLA fired athletic director Martin Jarmond on Monday and replaced him with Tim Harris, the former longtime president of business operations for the Los Angeles Lakers.

The shake-up was announced in a letter from Chancellor Julio Frenk to the university community. Frank described it as a “new path forward for UCLA Athletics.”

Jarmond, who had the job for six years, leaves immediately. The Bruins won three NCAA championships last season, including the first by the women’s basketball team.

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Harris, 64, will have the title of CEO and athletic director and work on a pro bono basis, Frenk wrote. Harris graduated from UCLA in 1989 with a sociology degree and played goalkeeper for the men’s soccer team while in Westwood.

Harris spent over 35 years with the Lakers and left the NBA franchise in February, four months after the Buss family sold it to Los Angeles Dodgers owner Mark Walter. Harris was among Lakers governor Jeanie Buss’ inner circle who received a major financial bonus after the sale. The team was recently sold again.

Jarmond, 46, replaced Dan Guerrero as AD in 2020. He signed a five-year contract extension in May 2024. During his tenure, the athletic department has run yearly deficits for seven consecutive years, totaling $241 million in shortfalls.

UCLA joined the Big Ten Conference two years ago, raking in millions of dollars in media rights fees while also facing increased travel expenses. Its deficit was reduced to $21.6 million for the 2025 fiscal year. The university has repeatedly bailed out the athletic department to keep it afloat.

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Frenk cited the financial situation as a reason for the change.

“UCLA Athletics currently carries a significant financial debt, and its current path is not sustainable,” Frenk wrote. “Now is the moment to build a model for Athletics that protects the breadth of our program, creates new opportunities for student-athletes and coaches, and supports itself through the revenue it generates.”

Frenk mentioned the rapid transformation of college sports in recent years, propelled by name, image and likeness deals that allow athletes to earn money.

“UCLA must have an athletics model that leads — not just keeps pace,” he wrote.

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Jarmond won’t be around to see the debut of his last major coaching hire. Bob Chesney arrived in early December from James Madison to reinvigorate UCLA’s moribund football program. The Bruins open the season at California on Saturday.

Reporting by the Associated Press.

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Dana White’s Contender Series 2026 Week 4 results: Adam Darby leads five winners to earn contracts

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The impressive main event performances in this season’s Dana White’s Contender Series events continued on Tuesday with Adam Darby’s third-round stoppage of Patrick Rivera at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Darby, the current Cage Warriors welterweight champion, used his long 6-foot-3 frame to keep the shorter Rivera at bay from the opening bell. With the distance established, Darby worked behind long straight punches and kicks as Rivera struggled to build any momentum.

Darby showed a patient, professional approach, never pressing his advantage too hard and simply picking away at Rivera.

By the end of the second round, Rivera’s face was bloodied and it seemed his best chance at a victory was the moral kind of simply reaching the final bell.

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Darby wasn’t content to sit back on a comfortable lead and continued to slam home shots as Rivera’s face became more and more of a mess. After the referee stepped in to allow the doctor to check Rivera, the fight was waived off and Darby improved to 8-1 as a professional. The fight was the first on American soil for the Irishman, who will likely fight in America more often as a member of the UFC welterweight roster.

In the night’s co-main event, Modestino Rodrigues came out of the gate like a house on fire, charging forward with a constant barrage of punches. It took less than 15 seconds for one of those Rodrigues shots, a right hand, to catch Brandon Holmes on the chin and drop him for the stoppage. With the win, Rodrigues improved to 8-1 in his professional MMA career, with all nine of his fights ending by knockout. After the fight, UFC CEO Dana White called the stoppage one of the worst he’d ever seen, but said it was not Rodrigues’ fault before awarding him a UFC contract.

In a fun and bloody lightweight scrap, Silvestre Sanchez took Liam McCraken’s best shots but never stopped coming forward. With steady pressure in both the grappling and striking game, Sanchez eventually broke down McCraken before a left hook put McCraken down for the finish in Round 3.

Despite entering Tuesday as a +185 underdog, Gabriel Lorenco impressed with a stoppage of Charlie Cleveland in their heavyweight clash. Lorenco dropped Cleveland with a wide punch and continued to pour on the damage until the referee called a halt to the bout at the 2:02 mark of Round 1.

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Dana White’s Contender Series Week 4 Results

Fighters receiving UFC contracts indicated by *

  • Adam Darby def. Patrick Rivera via TKO, Round 3 *
  • Modestino Rodrigues def. Brandon Holmes via TKO, Round 1 *
  • Silvestre Sanchez def. Liam McCraken via TKO, Round 3 *
  • Gabriel Lorenco def. Charlie Cleveland via TKO, Round 1 *
  • Adam Livingston def. Hunter Smith via split decision *

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