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Miami University’s NCAA Tournament selection scenarios: Can Redhawks get in with one loss?

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It’s important to draw a distinction between resume metrics and predictive metrics when talking about a team like Miami University and the NCAA Tournament bubble. Selection decisions are closely tied to your resume and what you’ve accomplished, which is a good thing for Miami. 

The cries are already coming: “but Miami hasn’t even played a Quad 1 game.”

Despite the fact that it has played zero Quad 1 games and is just 1-0 in Quad 2, there is a metric on official NCAA team sheets that acknowledges the brilliance of Miami’s 25-0 start.

It’s called Wins Against Bubble (WAB), and it calculates how the average bubble team would perform against your schedule. With a 1.92 WAB, the Redhawks are recognized for having nearly two more victories than the average bubble team would against their slate.

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If Miami doesn’t win the MAC Tournament and needs an at-large ticket to the Big Dance, WAB will be one of its best friends. The Redhawks rank No. 34 in WAB entering Tuesday night’s game at UMass, which appears to be the most challenging of six regular season games left on their slate. That’s within at-large territory. Where it gets tricky is that any loss against MAC opposition carries a significant WAB penalty.

Here are all the Selection Sunday scenarios for Miami as it heads down this the stretch with its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2007 in sight.

NCAA Tournament selection scenarios for Miami University

The simple scenario (win MAC Tournament) 

Record: Between 28-6 and 34-0 
Confidence level: It’s a party
Likely WAB range: Doesn’t matter

Bust out the balloons and hire a caterer for the watch party. Miami can go 6-0 to close the regular season, 0-6 or something in between. It doesn’t matter, so long as the Redhawks are cutting down the nets inside Cleveland’s Rocket Arena at the end of the MAC Tournament on March 14. 

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Winning the MAC Tournament is the only 100% guaranteed path to the Big Dance, and it won’t be easy. The MAC isn’t one of the handful of conferences now offering automatic byes to the semifinals for its top two seeds. The Redhawks will have to win three games in three days against a field consisting exclusively of the league’s top eight teams.

Many of the players on this Miami team were part of a gutting 76-74 loss to Akron in last year’s MAC Tournament title game in which the Zips rallied late to stun the Redhawks. That should only provide more motivation as Miami seeks its first conference tournament title since 2007.

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The MAC Madness scenario

Selection Sunday record: 31-1, 32-1 or 33-1
Confidence level:
optimistic
Likely WAB range: 35-43

Miami could still feel reasonably hopeful about making the Big Dance if it entered the MAC Tournament 31-0 and then dropped a game. While on some level it could matter who the loss came against, the Redhawks would still enter Selection Sunday with a WAB ranking in the at-large realm, regardless of who was responsible for handing them their first defeat.

A loss on a neutral floor in the MAC Tournament would likely come with a WAB cost of around 0.80. If Miami lost 0.80 in WAB today, it would drop the Redhawks from No. 34 in the metric to No. 42.

The team with the best WAB ranking left out of last year’s field was West Virginia, which arrived at Selection Sunday at No. 43 in the WAB. The 2025 selection process was the first to utilize WAB, so there isn’t a trove of past precedents to rely upon. But WVU’s exclusion last year sets a benchmark for Miami to aim for: don’t fall to No. 43.

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Finishing the regular season undefeated and then losing in the MAC Tournament would likely be good enough to keep the Redhawks in the upper 30s or lower 40s of WAB, which would be enough for them to enter Selection Sunday with some cautious optimism.

Double defeat scenario

Selection Sunday record: 30-2, 31-2 or 32-2
Confidence level: nervous
Likely WAB range: 43-52

The double defeat scenario involves Miami losing one regular-season game, in addition to a MAC Tournament game. 

This would not be advisable, as it would likely lead to Miami’s Selection Sunday WAB ranking landing in the mid-40s, at best. However, in this scenario, the opponent for the conference tournament loss could make a difference. If it’s a high-end Quad 2 loss against Akron in the title game, then it would be less costly.

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The team with the worst WAB ranking selected to last year’s field was Xavier, which was among the Last Four In at No. 49 in WAB. However, the Musketeers counterbalanced their lagging resume metrics with a predictive metrics profile hovering around 40th nationally. 

Miami University does not have good predictive metrics to fall back upon. So slipping out of the low-to-mid 40s in WAB would make things dicey. If Miami loses twice, a slip of that magnitude is likely, and it would make Selection Sunday uncomfortable.

Three-loss scenario

Selection Sunday record: 29-3, 30-3, 31-3
Confidence level: bracing for disappointment
Likely WAB range: 50-60

A 4-2 finish to the regular season, combined with a loss in the MAC Tournament, would decimate Miami’s at-large chances. In this scenario, the best conceivable outcome would be that the Redhawks lose in the MAC Tournament title game against Akron in a heartbreaking way that tugs on the heartstrings of committee members. But it would be a tough case to make. 

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With three losses on its ledger, Miami would almost certainly lag behind other bubble teams in resume metrics. Remember, it’s not just about win-loss record. It’s about the totality of your resume. WAB does a good job of quantifying that, and it wouldn’t be on Miami’s side if the Redhawks lost three times.

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Macclesfield hand Brentford major scare as non-league side’s magical FA Cup run ends

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Macclesfield bowed out of the FA Cup as a Sam Heathcote own-goal earned Brentford a place in the quarter-final where they will face West Ham

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Macclesfield’s historic FA Cup run came to an agonising conclusion as Brentford overcame the giant-killers 1-0.

The Bees avoided becoming the latest Premier League scalp at the hands of John Rooney’s side with Keith Andrews’ side scraping past the National League North side thanks to a Sam Heathcote own-goal.

The Irishman emphasised that they would not be underestimating the sixth-tier side but team selection didn’t quite back that up with their two top scorers, Igor Thiago and Kevin Schade, left out of the squad while club-record signing Dango Ouattara named on the bench.

Eleven years and seven months after their League Two meeting, the two sides locked horns after enduring contrasting fortunes. Less than six months after Macclesfield were wound up in the High Court, Brentford made history by earning promotion to England’s top-table for the very first time.

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Equipped with their tin-foil FA Cup trophies, half-and-half and newly-established bloodied head bandages from Paul Dawson’s heroics in January.

A walk in the park it was not. Brentford’s preparations saw them play on artificial pitches but it didn’t stop them struggling in the early exchanges. A string of misplaced passes from full-back Michael Kayode set the tone and it gave the underdogs a sense of impetus as they smelt trepidation for the visitors. Luke Duffy, a live-wire down the right-wing, fizzed a stinging effort over the bar.

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Captain Dawson immortalised himself in FA Cup and Silkmen folklore with his performance in the last round. He came agonisingly close to opening the scoring inside 20 minutes after Vitaly Janelt pockets were picked. The Macclesfield skipper marauded forward but could only drill his effort the wrong side of Hakon Valdimarsson’s right-hand post.

After a slow start, Brentford did put Max Dearnley’s goal under pressure.. Dawson handed the set-piece kings an opportunity to deliver and the non-leaguers survived after a goalmouth scramble.

The Silkmen shot-stopper was then forced into his first save when Aaron Hickey’s hard-work down the left fashioned Reiss Nelson an opportunity but the former Arsenal man could only sting the palms of the 27-year-old.

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As the minutes clocked on, the part-timer’s legs began to fade and the Bees found the sting in their tail. With Macclesfield down to 10 men as Luke Matheson prepared to come on for Lewis Fensome, the hosts capitalised with 20 minutes on the clock when primary school teacher, Sam Heathcote headed into his own net.

Romelle Donovan should have doubled their lead 10 minutes later but could only blaze over. The 19-year-old tricked his way around the Silkmen defender but couldn’t rubber-stamp their place in the quarter-finals against West Ham in March.

At the other end, the visitors were almost forced to rue their wastefulness when former Manchester United academy product D’Mani Mellor was twice denied by some desperate defending from the hosts.

Macclesfield will be brought back down to earth after the dizzying high of their FA Cup fourth round tie, which is predicted to score the club £400,000, as they chase a fourth promotion since rising from the ashes.

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Brentford qualify for the fifth round of the FA Cup for just the third time in their history, and their first since 1989, but they will breathe a huge sigh of relief after escaping another Macclesfield FA-Cup giant-killing.

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“We’re about to bottle this league”, “I’m finished”

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Barcelona fans have been left feeling pessimistic after forward Ferran Torres was named in the starting XI to face Girona in LaLiga. The Spanish giants are looking to reclaim top spot in the Spanish top-flight having dropped to second behind rivals Real Madrid.

Hansi Flick’s side saw their bitter rivals move two points clear at the summit of LaLiga after defeating Real Sociedad on Saturday. The German tactician has made two changes to the XI that lost 4-0 to Atletico Madrid in the Copa del Rey last time out.

The duo of Raphinha and Gerard Martin have been introduced in the XI in place of Marc Casado and Alejandro Balde. Up front, Torres has retained his place in the XI, with veteran striker Robert Lewandowski starting on the bench for La Blaugrana.

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Flick’s decision to name Torres in the starting line-up has not gone down very well with the Barcelona faithful, leading to reactions on X. One fan was unhappy with Torres’ inclusion, fearing that their side are about to bottle the league.

Another fan was perplexed with the decision to name the Spaniard in the XI.

A fan was left feeling disappointed by the inclusion of Torres in the line-up.

Another fan pointed out that the inclusion of the 25-year-old means they start a man short.

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A fan was left in disbelief following Flick’s decision to name the Spaniard.

Another fan was unhappy with the inclusion of Torres but chose to leave their comments unspoken until after the game.

A fan was left exasperated with the decision to play Torres from the start.

Ferran Torres has scored three goals in his last ten appearances for Barcelona across all competitions. The former Manchester City man has appeared 32 times for the Spanish giants this season, scoring 16 goals and providing an assist.

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Raphinha returns for Barcelona against Girona

Barcelona forward Raphinha has been included in the starting XI for their LaLiga clash against neighbours Girona. The Brazil international has struggled with injuries this season, and has been limited to only 22 appearances across all competitions.

Raphinha last appeared for La Blaugrana in their 3-1 win over Elche last month, when he was forced off after the first half with an injury. The Brazilian missed games against Albacete, Mallorca, and Atletico Madrid due to his injury.

Hansi Flick will be pleased to be able to call on Raphinha against Girona as he hopes to see his side return to the summit of LaLiga. The former Leeds United man has scored eight goals and provided three assists in 14 league appearances for Barcelona this season.