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UFC 331 Underdog Pick: Why Brunno Ferreira Can Upset Edmen Shahbazyan

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Mar 7, 2026; Las Vegas, Nevada, UNITED STATES; Brunno Ferreira (blue gloves) reacts after the fight against Gregory Rodrigues (red gloves) during UFC 326 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn ImagesMar 7, 2026; Las Vegas, Nevada, UNITED STATES; Brunno Ferreira (blue gloves) reacts after the fight against Gregory Rodrigues (red gloves) during UFC 326 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

Many feel the way that you have to bet on UFC is parlaying heavy favorites together, but underdogs win approximately 35% of the time in the world’s largest MMA promotion. Don’t be afraid to hunt for plus money.

Years ago, I developed a predictive model that uses in-fight stats and fighter attributes to simulate UFC fight outcomes — so long as the combatants had at least 30 completed octagon minutes or 5 total fights. I found that, in the UFC, moneyline favorites are usually overvalued.

How is that possible? Well, in a fight environment with as many variables per second as MMA, it’s hard to see the difference between -150 and -350 in real time. Great bets can lose. Terrible bets can win by lucky measures.

Every week, I’m going to give you my favorite underdog bet of the week. They’ll usually be showing value in my model, and I’ll explain their path to victory.

Here’s my favorite bit of plus money available for UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

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Note: All fight odds come via Polymarket, the official prediction market of UFC.

Swaim’s Underdog of the Week: Brunno Ferreira (+160)

Model Odds: +110

Model’s Favorite Exact Outcome and Implied Odds: Decision (+440)

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In one of the most strange lines of a loaded card in Los Angeles, bettors (or traders) are pushing Edmen Shahbazyan toward a two-to-one favorite in a battle of extremely similar fighters. I don’t get it.

Shahbazyan is the more polished fighter from Xtreme Couture, one of the best MMA gyms in the world under head coach Eric Nicksick. In this same division, his teammate, Sean Strickland, has the belt. But, that’s also been the case for years as “The Golden Boy” has struggled to make his mark at middleweight.

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Shahbazyan’s 9-6 record is far from perfect, and his +0.19 striking success rate (SSR) is fairly flat. When fresh, the striker is long, fast, and dangerous. But he’s proven to have an expiration date in fights, most recently verified in a second-round loss to Gerald Meerschaert. “GM3” has gone on a five-fight losing skid since beating Shahbazyan.

Anytime the middleweight exerts himself early, it ends poorly. He’s gone to a cautious decision in two of his last three fights knowing this. All Brunno Ferreira might have to do here is force action and survive long enough to watch Shahbazyan fade.

“The Hulk” has certainly been good at that. He’s got a 1.63% knockdown rate, and 7 of his 11 UFC-affiliated appearances, including the Contender Series, ended in Round 1. Twice a victim in those scenarios, that’s probably the most dangerous round for him.

But, in deeper waters, Ferreira has proven his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is legitimate with submissions in two of his last five fights. A longer fight? Well, he outlasted former title challenger Marvin Vettori in one of those, too. If this isn’t a quick, clean kickboxing match, Ferreira seems to have a great chance.

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Anecdotally, the Brazilian has struggled at times with discipline and coming to fight week in the best possible conditioning. On a two-fight losing skid, he looked in outstanding shape at weigh-ins. I typically don’t factor in that hard-to-quantify noise, but I think it matters greatly for Ferreira, given his history and his entering a fight like this, where endurance could be a key factor.

The model’s verdict agrees with my assessment. It feels like Shahbazyan’s technique is really expensive when, at the end of the day, these are both powerful strikers with inconsistent defense, submission danger, and questionable gas tanks. I’ve got Edmen a slight favorite (52.5%), but it’s otherwise saying to flip a coin.

If this fight extends to Round 2, Ferreira should be in an excellent position to pull the upset.

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Colts vs. Chiefs prediction, odds: NFL ‘Sunday Night Football’ picks from proven model

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The Kansas City Chiefs will look to make it two primetime wins in a row when they battle the Indianapolis Colts on ‘Sunday Night Football’ in Week 2. Kansas City opened the regular season with a 31-10 thrashing of the Denver Broncos on Monday night, while Indianapolis dropped a 41-23 decision to the Baltimore Ravens this past Sunday. The Colts (0-1), who finished third in the AFC South at 8-9 a year ago, have lost eight consecutive games dating back to last season. The Chiefs (1-0), who finished third in the AFC West at 6-11, are looking to reach the postseason for the 11th time in 12 years. Claim the latest Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS to get a $50 bonus after $10 in trades:

Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. The latest Chiefs vs. Colts odds have Kansas City as 5.5-point favorites, dropping a point since opening at Chiefs (-6.5). Meanwhile, the over/under for total points scored is 45.5. The Under is a league-best 14-4 for the Chiefs since the start of last season. Before making any Colts vs. Chiefs picks or 2026 NFL Week 2 predictions, be sure to see what the SportsLine projection model has to say.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 2 of the 2026 NFL season on a 53-39 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.  

Now, the model has zoned in on Colts vs. Chiefs. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Chiefs vs. Colts:

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Colts vs. Chiefs spread

Kansas City -5.5

Colts vs. Chiefs over/under

45.5 points

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Colts vs. Chiefs money line 

Kansas City -277, Indianapolis +224

Colts vs. Chiefs picks

See picks at SportsLine

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Top Colts vs. Chiefs predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Colts vs. Chiefs, the model is going Over 46.5 points at betting apps. The Over has hit in four of the last five Indianapolis games. Indianapolis quarterback Daniel Jones will look to improve on last week’s performance, his first since returning from a torn right Achilles tendon sustained in Week 14 last year. In the loss to the Ravens, Jones completed 19 of 31 passes for 166 yards and one touchdown with one interception. Running back Jonathan Taylor carried 19 times for 98 yards and two touchdowns.

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Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes also returned from a leg injury and was nimble enough to throw for 184 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. He also carried seven times for 23 yards and one touchdown. The model projects 49 combined points, giving value to the Over in 54% of simulations. See which team to back at SportsLine

How to make ‘Sunday Night Football’ picks

In addition to going Over, the model also says one side of the spread is hitting in over 50% of simulations. See what it is at SportsLine.

Who covers in Colts vs. Chiefs, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Colts vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump, all from the model that’s on a 53-39 run on top-rated picks since 2024, and find out.

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Ryan Garcia names the welterweight champion’s legacy he’d rather have than Floyd Mayweather’s

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Ryan Garcia is looking to take over both the welterweight division and the sport of boxing as a whole, but there is one fighter whose legacy Garcia is hoping to emulate, believing his greatness surpasses that of modern icon Floyd Mayweather.

Mayweather retired with a 50-0 professional record, but he has been linked to a comeback this year, with a potential rematch against Manny Pacquiao now being targeted for 2027 if reports are to be believed.

However, whilst ‘TBE’ retired without a loss to his name, Garcia believes that Mayweather’s ‘0’ is not as important as others see it to be and that the 49-year-old protected his unbeaten streak by carefully selecting his opponents.

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In an interview with Club Shay Shay, Garcia declared that he would prefer to be remembered like Sugar Ray Leonard rather than Mayweather, insinuating that he plans to take on the best available fighters at all times in his career.

“I would rather be [Sugar Ray] Leonard than Floyd, in my heart. 

“He [Floyd] ducked in a very strategic way, he ain’t duck, but he [was like], ‘ooh, not right now… okay I will do it now.’

“He did it a little bit more intelligently, I guess, it was like, ‘I don’t want him right now, he looking a little too nice.’”

When pushed further on his words, ‘King Ry’ outlined some possible fights than Mayweather failed to deliver at certain points in his career.

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“I think there were certain moments where he could have gave us the real fights at the right time. I think that he could have fought guys like Shane Mosley [earlier], but he says he was calling Shane Mosley out at the right time.

“He could even have fought Paul Williams before he got in that accident. He could have fought Pacquiao a little earlier, that’s the major one, everybody knows that one though. Oscar [De La Hoya], that wasn’t his fault but he did get Oscar a little late.”

Leonard ruled as a five-division world champion and Olympic gold medalist who defeated some of boxing’s greatest names, including Roberto Durán, Thomas Hearns, and Marvin Hagler

As for Garcia, following his win over Conor Benn last weekend, he is expected to next target a unification clash with WBA welterweight champion Teofimo Lopez.

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NFL Week 2 grades for all 32 teams: Saints earn an ‘A’ for stunning Ravens, Steelers get low mark

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Welcome to the Week 2 grades!

The second week of the season is always a big one, especially for all the teams with an 0-1 record. If there’s one thing you don’t want ever want to do in the NFL, it’s start the season at 0-2. Since the playoffs expanded to 14 teams in 2020, only eight out of 51 teams have bounced back from an 0-2 start to make the postseason. Basically, the odds are NOT in your favor. 

That’s not great news for the Texans, Titans, and Falcons, all teams that are now 0-2 after losing on Sunday. Of course, we did see three teams make the playoffs last season after starting 0-2, so getting to the postseason isn’t impossible, but all of the teams above have dug themselves into a big hole that won’t be easy to get out of. 

With that in mind, let’s get to the grades, starting with a Saints team that avoided an 0-2 start by stunning the Ravens in Baltimore. 

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(Note: The Buccaneers and Browns had a weather delay, so those grades will be available at some point after that game has concluded.)

New Orleans 24-17 over Baltimore

New England 20-3 over Pittsburgh

Cincinnati 20-6 over Houston

Minnesota 9-3 over Chicago

Green Bay 20-17 over New York (OT)

Philadelphia 24-20 over Tennessee 

Carolina 34-3 Atlanta

Buffalo 41-31 over Detroit (Thursday)

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Luke Littler clean sweep bid thwarted before Ross Smith triumphs in Amsterdam

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Luke Littler’s bid to secure a clean sweep was ended after being beaten 10-4 by Jonny Clayton in the World Series of Darts Finals quarter-finals as Ross Smith was crowned the overall victor.

The 19-year-old was aiming to become the first man to win all 10 major televised tournaments in a calendar year, having triumphed in the first five, with a narrow 10-9 win over Nathan Aspinall on Saturday night sending Littler into the final eight.

A tight battle between the pair in Amsterdam saw Clayton level at 3-3 with a 136 checkout and he soon took charge of the contest, completing his victory with a checkout of 40 to set up a semi-final tie with Gerwyn Price.

Price went on to beat Clayton 11-7 and subsequently set up a showpiece meeting with Smith, who had claimed a 11-8 win over Gian van Veen in the competition’s remaining semi-final tie.

Initially little could separate Price and Smith during the final and with the score locked at 5-5, Smith suddenly took control by winning the next six straight legs and finished with an average of 103.89.

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Smith’s 11-5 win over Price in the final secured a maiden World Series of Darts Finals crown for the Englishman and is the second Premier event of his career.

His path to the final saw him beat Josh Rock 10-7 in the quarter-finals earlier on Sunday to set up that meeting with Van Veen, who had recovered from trailing 8-6 to claim a 10-8 win over Dirk van Duijvenbode in the last eight.

Price had reached the semi-finals with a 10-7 triumph over James Wade, finishing with an impressive average of 103.86.

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‘Sunday Night Football’ prediction, odds: Colts vs. Chiefs picks by expert on 31-19 run

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After looking like the team that won three Super Bowls this past decade, the Kansas City Chiefs look to continue that momentum when they battle the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football. Kansas City opened the season with a 31-10 thrashing of the Denver Broncos on Monday night, while Indianapolis dropped a 41-23 decision to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday. The Colts (0-1), who have lost eight consecutive games dating back to last season, are 2-6 on the road since last September. The Chiefs (1-0), who have made the postseason in 10 of the last 11 seasons, are 6-4 on their home field since the start of 2025. Claim the latest Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS to get a $50 bonus after $10 in trades:

Kickoff is at 8:20 p.m. ET from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., where the home team won the last matchup, 23-20, in Nov. 2025. The latest Colts vs. Chiefs odds have Kansas City as a 6-point favorite, while the over/under for total points scored is 45.5. The Chiefs are at -280 on the money line (risk $280 to win $100). Indy is 8-8-2 against the spread since the start of last season, with Kansas City at 7-10-1 ATS. Before making any Colts vs. Chiefs picks, be sure to see what R.J. White has to say.

CBS Sports’ managing editor of Fantasy and gambling, White twice has cashed huge in the world’s most prestigious handicapping tournament, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest. Over the past 11 years, his Vegas contest picks are 508-424-28 (54.5 percent). White consistently crushes the NFL: He went 803-705-41 on ATS picks from 2017-25, returning more than $2,700 to $100 players as SportsLine’s No. 1 NFL expert in against the spread picks on NFL betting sites. He enters this season on a 31-19-3 roll on picks involving the Colts, returning $1,004 to $100 players. Anyone following his picks on betting sites could have seen huge returns.    

Now, White has zeroed in on Colts vs. Chiefs. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Chiefs vs. Colts:

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Colts vs. Chiefs spread

Chiefs -6

Colts vs. Chiefs over/under

45.5 points

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Colts vs. Chiefs money line 

Chiefs -280, Colts +229

Colts vs. Chiefs picks

See picks at SportsLine

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Top Colts vs. Chiefs predictions

White is leaning Under 46.5 combined points for over/under betting at betting apps. Both Patrick Mahomes (ACL, MCL) of the Chiefs and Daniel Jones (Achilles) of the Colts are coming back from injury and have been slowed a bit early on. Mahomes did throw two touchdown passes and ran for another score on Monday against the Broncos. He threw for a modest 184 yards. 

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Jones, meanwhile, was held to 166 yards passing with one touchdown and one interception in the loss to Baltimore. The Under has hit in eight of the last 10 head-to-head matchups between the Colts and Chiefs. The Under has also hit in nine of the past 10 Kansas City games, including each of the last six. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Colts vs. Chiefs picks

White also has found a crucial X-factor that makes one side of the spread a must-back. See what it is at SportsLine.

Who wins Colts vs. Chiefs on Sunday Night Football, and what X-factor makes one side of the spread hit hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Colts vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump, all from the expert who has returned $1,004 to $100 players over his last 53 Indianapolis picks, and find out.

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4 Takeaways after Vikings Escape Slugfest with Bears

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After a 1-0 start to the season, the Minnesota Vikings headed to Soldier Field with the difficult task of slowing down a Chicago Bears offense that scored 59 points in Week 1.

While they were assisted by some rain, the Vikings more than accomplished that goal, inking a 9-3 final score into the W column. Minnesota now sits as the only 2-0 team in the NFC North with sole lead of the division, and more importantly, both of those wins came against division rivals.

Here are four takeaways following that 9-3 victory in Chicago.

1. Young Defenders Shine

Dallas Turner celebrates sack of Jordan Love at Lambeau Field.
Minnesota Vikings linebacker Dallas Turner (15) celebrates after sacking Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love, with the moment unfolding on November 23, 2025 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin, as Turner reacts to the defensive play during a key NFC North matchup on the road. Mandatory Credit: Tork Mason-Imagn Images.

After a strong showing against Green Bay last weekend, the young Vikings defenders, particularly on the defensive front, were on a mission to make life miserable for the Chicago Bears on Sunday afternoon.

Dallas Turner led the way with some elite play, recording a pair of sacks. This included the game-sealing sack of Tyson Bagent at the end of the fourth quarter.

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Jalen Redmond can’t go unnoticed, either. He put together four tackles, was a force in the running game, and he saved the Vikings with a touchdown-saving fumble forced on D’Andre Swift at the goal line. Who knows if the Vikings actually pull this game out with that tackle.

Caleb Banks also put together a solid day with six total tackles (three solo) and a tackle for loss. After going unnoticeable in Week 1, he made a great positive step in his second NFL game.

2. Aaron Jones Turns in Banner Day

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Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron Jones Sr. (33) runs the ball during a game against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium, Dec 21, 2025, East Rutherford, NJ, USA. © Yannick Peterhans / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images.

Without Jordan Mason in the lineup because of a thumb injury that has landed him on IR, Aaron Jones was forced to become the bell cow back for the Vikings. He did an admirable job of taking on that challenge, carrying the ball 23 times for 105 yards.

A big challenge for the Vikings over the past few years has been finding a way to consistently run the football. Through two games this season, Minnesota has put up 226 rushing yards. It’s not the most impressive number in the world, but it is far better than the weeks we’ve seen in the past where they could not find a way to establish any sort of rushing attack.

On a day where weather played a factor and both defenses controlled the day throughout, you saw firsthand why a consistent running game makes a difference in winning and losing these close games.

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3. Caleb Williams’ Injury Looms Large

NFL: Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
Sep 13, 2026; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) runs with the ball in the fourth quarter against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images – Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This game cannot be talked about without mentioning the Caleb Williams injury. Yes, the Vikings spent the majority of the day keeping the dynamic quarterback in check, but late in the fourth quarter when Williams had the Bears driving, he pulled up on a run where he very well may have made it into the end zone to give the Bears the lead.

That left Tyson Bagent to try and overcome a strong Vikings defense that was firing on all cylinders, and the backup couldn’t get the job done.

As of now, it appears to be a hamstring injury for Williams, but it remains to be seen how severe that injury is. This is something that may not only impact this week’s outcome, but also games in the coming weeks as well if he were to miss any time.

4. Special Teams Wins the Day

Vikings kicker Will Reichard against the Detroit Lions in Week 17 of 2025
Dec 25, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings place kicker Will Reichard (16) celebrates after making a field goal against the Detroit Lions in the third quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Let’s give some credit to the Vikings on special teams. They got the job done in all aspects. Will Reichard was a perfect three-for-three on field goals, extending his streak to 23 consecutive made field goals. It’s a stretch that Vikings fans really shouldn’t take for granted.

Then, there’s the rookie Brett Thorson. He answered a strong NFL debut by being forced to punt six times, and he averaged just under 50 yards per punt, including a pair of punts that ended up inside Chicago’s 20. It comes after he put three punts inside the 20 in the season opener against Green Bay. If the Vikings continue to be led by their defense and play hard-fought, close games, Thorson’s abilities will be essential to keep opponents pinned.

Finally, Isaiah Rodgers made a massive play on special teams, blocking a field goal attempt that would have tied the game 6-6 in the second half.

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Editor’s Note: Information from ESPN helped with this article.

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Massive grudge match officially added to WWE RAW

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A huge grudge match has been announced for tomorrow night’s episode of WWE RAW. Tomorrow’s show will air live from the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas.

RAW General Manager Adam Pearce previewed tomorrow night’s show today on social media and announced a major grudge match. Bayley will be returning to action to battle Lyra Valkyria on WWE RAW. Pearce also noted that Penta would be cutting a promo following his loss to World Heavyweight Champion Roman Reigns last week, and the qualifying matches for Money in the Bank would continue tomorrow night on the red brand.

“Bayley takes on Lyra Valkyria, and there will be two Money in the Bank qualifying matches. On the men’s side, Dragon Lee will tackle Solo Sikoa and Dirty Dominik Mysterio. And on the women’s side, IYO SKY goes to battle with Roxanne Perez and La Catalina from AAA!” said Pearce.

Pearce also revealed that LA Knight would be speaking during RAW tomorrow night. Knight attacked World Heavyweight Champion Roman Reigns following his victory over Penta last week and will be challenging The OTC for the title at Money in the Bank 2026.

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Bayley and Lyra Valkyria used to be in an alliance, but it fell apart earlier this year. Valkyria defeated The Role Model at SNME in July and brutally attacked her following the match. The Hugger got her revenge on Valkyria by ruining her chance to qualify for the Women’s Money in the Bank ladder match earlier this month on RAW.

Bayley reacts to surprising WWE title change

RAW star Bayley reacted to Stephanie Vaquer capturing the Women’s World Championship at a WWE Live Event last weekend.

Vaquer defeated Liv Morgan last weekend in Chile to become the new Women’s World Champion. La Primera celebrated with the former leader of Damage CTRL, IYO SKY, and Sol Ruca following the surprise victory. The 37-year-old took to social media to react to Vaquer’s title win and noted that it was a very special moment.

“What a feeling that was ❤️🇨🇱,” she wrote.

What a feeling that was ❤️🇨🇱

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It will be interesting to see which star will emerge victorious in the grudge match tomorrow night on WWE RAW.