Connect with us

Sports

UFC Shanghai Underdog of the Week: Denise Gomes Is a Major Value Play

Published

on

Nov 4, 2023; Sao Paulo, Brazil; Denise Gomes (blue gloves) prepares to fight Angela Hill (not pictured) during UFC Fight Night at Ibirapuera Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jason da Silva-USA TODAY SportsNov 4, 2023; Sao Paulo, Brazil; Denise Gomes (blue gloves) prepares to fight Angela Hill (not pictured) during UFC Fight Night at Ibirapuera Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jason da Silva-USA TODAY Sports

Many feel the way that you have to bet on UFC is parlaying heavy favorites together, but underdogs win approximately 35% of the time in the world’s largest MMA promotion. Don’t be afraid to hunt for plus money.

Years ago, I developed a predictive model that uses in-fight stats and fighter attributes to simulate UFC fight outcomes — so long as the combatants had at least 30 completed octagon minutes or 5 total fights. I found that, in the UFC, moneyline favorites are usually overvalued.

How is that possible? Well, in a fight environment with as many variables per second as MMA, it’s hard to see the difference between -150 and -350 in real time. Great bets can lose. Terrible bets can win by lucky measures.

Every week, I’m going to give you my favorite underdog bet of the week. They’ll usually be showing value in my model, and I’ll explain their path to victory.

Here’s my favorite bit of plus money available for UFC Fight Night: Numagomedov vs. Song. *Note: All fight odds come via Polymarket, the official prediction market of UFC. *

Advertisement

Swaim’s Underdog of the Week: Denise Gomes (+144)

**Model Odds: -133 **

**Model’s Favorite Exact Outcome and Implied Odds: Decision (+227) **

Our Current Best Offers

Channel debug: betting

Advertisement

In Saturday’s co-main event, Brazilian strawweight Denise Gomes is seeking her fifth straight win. She’s an underdog to get it.

I understand where oddsmakers are coming from. Yan Xiaonan is a former title challenger in this 115-pound division, impressively going all 25 minutes with Weili Zhang. She wasn’t submitted in a dangerous 15 minutes against Virna Jandiroba in her only appearance during 2025. Xiaonan has become a brutal out — especially in China. She’s 3-0 in her home country.

But, Xiaonan is now 37, and the lack of activity won’t help her stay sharp. Her recent wins haven’t aged particularly well, as Tabatha Ricci has dropped three of her last four, and Jessica Andrade’s late-career slide has been six losses in her last eight fights.

Advertisement

Above all, the Chinese striker just isn’t particularly dangerous. A “survival-first” mindset on the ground is paired with a 0.22% knockdown rate. She’s dropped just 1 of her 13 UFC opponents.

Gomes is the opposite. She’s scored a knockdown in three of her last six fights with a 0.65% knockdown rate. The Brazilian attempts 0.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes but has yet to find the tapout on a UFC opponent, signaling potential regression.

I’m not entirely sure that finish comes against Xiaonan, but there’s no doubt this is a competitive distance fight, and the 26-year-old also attempts 4.26 takedowns per 15 minutes. She’s the one of these two willing to mix it up.

That’s a big deal when the aforementioned Jandiroba just landed 3 of 11 takedown attempts and posted 9:59 in control. There’s no doubt that she is a better grappler than Gomes, but the threat of Yan getting stuck on her back could make a difference in decision-making between these well-matched strikers.

Advertisement

My model has this fight at 64.9% likely to go the distance, which mirrors strawweight’s rolling yearly average of 68.6% of fights going the full distance. Xiaonan hasn’t been finished inside the distance since May 2021.

So, even if this isn’t Gomes’ most impressive performance, she probably shouldn’t be just 41.0% implied to win the fight. An 11-year age gap, grappling upside, and a power advantage are all working in her favor. The model’s forecast of Gomes’ decision outcome (30.6%) also shows value in betting markets.

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Sports

Runaround Sue primed for Ipswich sprint in 2026

Published

on

Ipswich racecourse frequently offers sprint races over short distances like 800 metres, a rarity in many other racing locations, providing trainers such as Pat Webster with excellent opportunities.

The experienced trainer has two contenders in the Barrier Reef Pools Benchmark 65 Handicap scheduled for Thursday. Among them is Runaround Sue, who is aiming to enhance her strong record at the Ipswich track.

“We like to use those races for a lot of horses resuming,” Webster said.

“Sometimes we hold them back from a second trial, or even start them first-up with no trials over the half-mile and if you’re lucky enough you can get an earn out of it. I think they are a good tool.”

Advertisement

With two wins and two placings from her six starts, Webster believes the 800-metre distance is ideal for the seven-year-old mare, particularly as she races effectively second-up, indicating her potential for another good performance.

Runaround Sue was defeated by a narrow margin, less than half a length, in her first start back at Toowoomba over 870 metres on August 15.

“I think she’ll run well second-up,” Webster stated.

“She probably could have had a run sooner in the prep than she did but there wasn’t much around for her at the time so she is on the quick back-up for a horse that only started ten days ago.

Advertisement

“But I’m happy with her going into tomorrow and gate one will definitely help.”

Master trainer Pat Webster, who also guides apprentice Chloe Lowe, has found success by carefully selecting the mare’s race engagements.

Lowe will be aboard Runaround Sue, and her two-kilogram claim will reduce the mare’s weight to 57.5 kilograms.

“Chloe rides a lot of our work and has won a few on this horse,” Webster commented.

Advertisement

“She is going pretty good. There is still a bit of tidying up to do but she is a hard worker and is very good on horses that run along.”

Webster’s other runner, Medals, also carries a three-kilogram apprentice claim. However, racing first-up and burdened with 61 kilograms, the gelding might face an uphill battle.

“I probably would have taken him to a race in the country, an open 1000m if there was one but I think he’ll run well,” Pat added.

Runaround Sue is the $3.80 favourite in early markets released on Wednesday, with Medals at $4. Explore the available racing betting markets for this event.

Advertisement

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Sports

How about a fine which gets doubled

Published

on

Former Indian opener Sunil Gavaskar called for fines to be imposed on the bowler and the bowling coach for every no-ball bowled after Team India’s series win over Sri Lanka. Despite pulling off a 1-0 series win, the Indian bowlers, including the spinners, struggled with overstepping issues.

In just the second Test, the visitors sent down 13 no-balls, with the spin duo of Saransh Jain and Ravindra Jadeja bowling 11 across the two innings. Jadeja, who has often struggled with front-foot no-balls throughout his stellar career, also sent down four no-balls in the first Test at Galle.

Addressing the issue during the second Test, India’s bowling coach Sairaj Bahutule called for free-hits even in red-ball cricket.

However, Gavaskar disagreed with that thought and felt fines were the way forward, saying in his column for the Mid-Day:

Advertisement

“The India team spinning coach jokingly said that giving a free hit after a no-ball might help in curbing the offense. Please, let’s not make run-scoring easier in Test cricket for the batters with this penalty. As it is, with the restriction on bouncers to two in an over and the boundaries being brought in, run making has become a little simpler. Instead, how about a fine which gets doubled for every further transgression, plus half the amount of the fine for the bowling coach too.”

He added:

“The fines collected can be used for the final team dinner before the boys disperse. There could be other fines too, for example, not backing up for a throw or something else not done on the field, which the whole team can vote on whether to impose or not. This can also be a fun activity and bond the team even more.”

Overall, the Indian bowlers bowled an unacceptable 20 no-balls across the four innings in the two Tests in Sri Lanka.

Advertisement

“There should be no excuses for overstepping the bowling crease” – Sunil Gavaskar

Sunil Gavaskar believes bowling no-balls is inexcusable in the modern day, given the facilities and equipment available. The white-ball formats have penalized bowling no-balls with free hits for years as a move to penalize the bowlers.

“This has to be looked at urgently because it can change the colour of the game. There are very few aspects of the game that are totally in the players’ control, and a batter taking guard and a bowler not bowling a no-ball are two such aspects. Players, when they come for interviews, talk about doing things that are in their control. Today, with tape measure available to mark the run-up, there should be no excuses for overstepping the bowling crease,” said Gavaskar (via the aforementioned source).

Sri Lanka were themselves guilty of bowling no-balls across three innings in the Test series against India.