One of the most valuable freshmen in the sport may have played his last game in college.

North Carolina announced Thursday afternoon that stellar freshman forward Caleb Wilson suffered a left hand fracture during the first half of the Tar Heels’ 75-66 road loss against Miami on Tuesday.

“X-rays taken during the game were negative, and he returned to play later in the second half vs. the Hurricanes, but additional imaging done in Chapel Hill revealed the fracture,” per the school. “The evaluation process is ongoing to determine the timetable for Wilson’s return.”

Wilson played 26 minutes against Miami, his fewest against a power-conference opponent this season. He also logged a season-low 12 points.

Impact on UNC’s lineup

Broken hands can sometimes lead to extended absences, so there is no telling whether or not Wilson will be able to suit up in the near future, or if the injury and subsequent rehab will force him to sit deep into March. Wilson has been one of the best freshman performers in what’s increasingly considered the deepest one-and-done class in college basketball history. 

At 19.8 points and 9.4 rebounds per game, Wilson has doubly proven to be among the best freshmen in Carolina history. His 17 20-point outings are the most by any first-year player for the program. Wilson played all 40 minutes in UNC’s instant-epic win over rival Duke on Saturday, scoring 23 points to go with four rebounds, two assists, two steals and a block. North Carolina also notes Wilson’s 66 dunks are the most of any player in college basketball. 

Without Wilson, UNC loses formidable inside defense, scoring, flexibility and recovery. There is no replacing his motor or stamina, either. UNC ranks outside the top 40 in defensive efficiency at KenPom and has relied on Wilson’s unrelenting hustle and playmaking to make a jump this season after barely making the 2025 NCAA Tournament. 

UNC has been playing an eight-man rotation for the majority of the year. The Heels’ four starters will remain Henri Veesar in the middle, Jarin Stevenson in the frontcourt (likely moving from the 3 and replacing Wilson as the 4-man), veteran shooting guard Seth Trimble and freshman Derek Dixon, a rising star running the point in the backcourt. 

The most likely tweak to keep UNC with some viable size in its most common lineup will be to inject 6-6 swingman Luka Bogavac into the starting five. The 22-year-old from Montenegro started 13 games earlier in the year.

Backup shooting guard Jonathan Powell and point guard Kyan Evans (who’s started 17 times) will see their roles increased as well. Everyone else has played spot duty. Can UNC go seven-deep as it turns toward the month-long stretch to Selection Sunday?

NCAA tourney seed outlook TBD

Thursday’s news makes North Carolina one of the most interesting teams to track over the next month. 

There’s a wide spectrum of outcomes in play because the loss of Wilson will be problematic for a 19-5 Heels crew that is ranked 11th this week but doesn’t have an NCAA seed projection that harmonizes with its AP ranking. 

The Tar Heels are currently hovering between the 6- and 7-line in CBS Sports’ most recent NCAA Tournament bracketology outlook. Depending on how the Tar Heels play in the weeks ahead without their most talented player, the committee will evaluate (but not necessarily punish) UNC with and without Wilson. Now, if UNC can win way more often than not without its most vital player, the committee will reward the Heels accordingly. 

The next game is manageable: UNC hosts lowly Pitt on Saturday, then has back-to-back road tests against North Carolina State and Syracuse. Home games against Louisville and Clemson still await (both are pacing toward healthy tourney seeds) and of course there’s the season finale at Duke.

An Atlanta native, Wilson projects as a top-five draft prospect. North Carolina hasn’t had a player drafted in the top five since Marvin Williams went No. 2 in 2005.