But should they?
It’s easy to see why they think it is all inevitable: In the U.S., Trump pulled off a decisive electoral victory, winning the popular vote and brushing the Democrats aside in all swing states. Now MAGA is rampant; Trump and his best buddy Elon Musk are demolishing government agencies; and Congress has so far let them. The courts are holding for now, but for how much longer?
Meanwhile, on this side of the Atlantic, right-wing populists and national conservatives made serious inroads in last summer’s European election. Admittedly, it wasn’t the huge surge the populists were predicting: Voters still largely backed centrists, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was able to crow the “center is holding” — though that’s no guarantee it will do so next time.
Right-wing nationalist parties performed strongly at the national level here too. Seven EU member countries — Croatia, the Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands and Slovakia — now have populist governments or coalition partners. And in Germany’s February election, the far-right Alternative for Germany party doubled its voter support to 20.8 percent, making it the second-largest force in the Bundestag.
Trump, of course, was meant to give this populist wave added force, ushering in a new nationalist, MAGA-style transatlantic project — or so his international bedfellows thought. But Canada’s upcoming parliamentary election should perhaps hamper that triumphalism.
A few months ago, no one would have given Canada’s Liberal Party a chance of winning. After a decade in power, the Liberal government looked shopworn and, amid a cost-of-living and affordable housing crisis, public support was falling off a cliff.
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