Crypto has been in a full-blown winter since January 2025, even if much of the market has been reluctant to say it out loud, asset manager Bitwise said in a Monday blog post.

Having lived through multiple crypto winters, the investment manager said the current mood of despair looks familiar, and historically has marked the later stages of downturns. After more than a year of declining prices, the market is likely closer to the end of winter than the beginning, with a recovery arriving “sooner rather than later.”

Crypto winters are prolonged bear markets marked by steep price declines, collapsing sentiment and a general indifference to good news. Historically, they have followed periods of excess leverage and speculative excess, lasting roughly a year from peak to trough.

In past cycles, including 2018 and 2022, adoption milestones and regulatory progress did little to halt losses in the depths of the downturn. Instead, crypto winters have tended to end quietly, as selling pressure fades and markets stabilize, setting the stage for the next expansion, the post said.

Prices have been sharply lower across the board, with bitcoin BTC$78,937.14 down roughly 39% from its October 2025 peak, ether ETH$2,325.24 off more than 50%, and many major tokens down far more.

This is not a routine pullback or a healthy correction, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, but a 2022-style downturn driven by excess leverage and profit-taking that has overwhelmed even a steady stream of positive headlines.

Hougan argued that recognizing the market as a true crypto winter helps explain why good news, from regulatory progress to institutional adoption, has failed to lift prices.

In past cycles, Hougan noted, fundamentals rarely matter at market lows. Crypto winters do not end with optimism or excitement, but with fatigue, as sellers are finally exhausted.

While previous crypto winters have lasted roughly 13 months from peak to trough, Hougan believes this cycle effectively began in January 2025, even though the market did not fully register it at the time. Heavy inflows into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and digital asset treasury strategies helped prop up a handful of large, institutionally accessible assets, masking a brutal bear market in retail-focused crypto.

According to the report, assets with strong institutional support fell modestly in 2025, while tokens without ETF or treasury demand suffered declines of 60% or more. Bitwise estimated that institutional vehicles absorbed more than 740,000 bitcoin during the period, providing tens of billions of dollars in price support that may have prevented far steeper losses.

Despite the gloom, the underlying story for crypto has not materially deteriorated, according to Hougan.

Regulatory momentum, Wall Street adoption, stablecoins and tokenization all continue to advance, even if markets are ignoring them for now. That positive news is building latent pressure that could fuel a sharp recovery once sentiment turns, the report added.

Read more: Wall Street integration will power crypto’s next phase, says Fidelity Digital Assets