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XRP Price Rally Needs to Absorb 1.2 Billion Tokens, but Buying Power Is Fading

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XRP price trades at $1.33 on April 6, up 3% over the past 24 hours, but sitting inside a developing head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart. The right shoulder is forming, and any rally from here needs to push through a 1.24 billion token supply wall overhead.

The problem is that the buying pressure, which would normally drive that kind of move, has halved since late March, raising the question of whether the current bounce has enough fuel to absorb the supply or will simply complete the bearish pattern.

A Right Shoulder Is Forming, and Two EMAs Stand in the Way

The daily chart shows a clear head and shoulders structure. The left shoulder formed in late February, the head peaked near $1.60 in mid-March, and the right shoulder is currently developing as XRP price consolidates around $1.33. The neckline sits near $1.26. A confirmed break below that level would activate a near 19% measured move.

Before the bearish pattern can be invalidated, XRP needs to reclaim two Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are trend indicators that give greater weight to recent price action. The 20-day EMA sits at $1.35 and the 50-day at $1.42. The last clean reclaim of the 20-day EMA happened on March 13, after which prices rallied 15.26% and also recaptured the 50-day.

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Head and Shoulders Pattern
Head and Shoulders Pattern: TradingView

A daily close above $1.35 would reclaim the 20-day EMA and provide the first signal of short-term strength. However, any price peak that stays below the head at $1.60 remains inside the head and shoulders structure and risks forming the right shoulder rather than breaking the pattern. The supply data reveals exactly where the resistance begins (as the shoulder develops) and why absorbing it will be difficult.

1.2 Billion Tokens and Fading Conviction

The Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap, which maps how much XRP supply was last acquired at each price level, identifies two critical clusters that frame the current setup.

The first sits between $1.31 and $1.32, where approximately 719 million XRP has its cost basis. This cluster acts as the floor supporting the right shoulder. As long as these holders remain confident and do not sell, the XRP price maintains its current level.

If this cluster begins distributing, the right shoulder would erode quickly and the neckline at $1.26 comes under direct threat.

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XRP Cost Basis Heatmap Floor
XRP Cost Basis Heatmap Floor: Glassnode

The second and larger cluster sits between $1.45 and $1.47, holding approximately 1.24 billion XRP. This is the overhead wall that any meaningful rally must absorb. These holders acquired their positions at higher prices. And they might look to exit at or near breakeven if price approaches their cost basis. Pushing through 1.24 billion tokens worth of potential selling pressure requires sustained and aggressive buying.

XRP Cost Basis Heatmap Ceiling
XRP Cost Basis Heatmap Ceiling: Glassnode

The Exchange Net Position Change, which tracks whether tokens are moving onto or off exchanges, reveals whether that buying power exists. A negative reading means more XRP is leaving exchanges than entering, which signals accumulation. The metric peaked at approximately -117 million XRP around late March, indicating strong buying conviction. By April 5, it had dropped to -57 million XRP, a decline of roughly 51%.

Exchange Net Position Change
Exchange Net Position Change: Glassnode

The buying pressure that supported the mid-March rally has halved. With 1.24 billion tokens sitting overhead and only half the exchange conviction remaining, the math for absorbing the supply wall becomes significantly harder. If no fresh buying power arrives, the right shoulder could finalize near this $1.45-$1.47 supply cluster zone.

XRP Price Levels Between a Breakout and a Breakdown

The daily price chart with technical levels from the completed swing frames every critical level.

The first hurdle is $1.35, the 0.236 level that closely aligns with the 20-day EMA. A daily close above this would mirror the March 13 reclaim that preceded a 15% rally. Above that, $1.40 and $1.44 come into focus, with $1.48 at the 0.618 level acting as the key confirmation. A close above $1.48 would mean that the 1.24 billion token cluster between $1.45 and $1.47 did not sell or that their selling pressure was absorbed by new demand.

The XRP price would only show genuine strength above $1.60, the head of the pattern. A reclaim of the head would fully invalidate the head and shoulders and shift the structure from bearish to bullish.

On the downside, a failure to reclaim $1.35 keeps the right shoulder intact and $1.26-$1.27 remains directly at risk. A confirmed break below the neckline at $1.26 would activate the 19% measured move and project a drop toward $1.03.

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XRP Price Analysis
XRP Price Analysis: TradingView

A daily close above $1.48 confirms the rally absorbed the 1.2 billion token wall. That shifts XRP price toward a potential head invalidation. However, a break below $1.26 confirms the pattern and opens a path toward $1.03.

The post XRP Price Rally Needs to Absorb 1.2 Billion Tokens, but Buying Power Is Fading appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Polymarket just revealed a ‘full exchange upgrade’ to take control of its own trading and truth

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Polymarket just revealed a 'full exchange upgrade' to take control of its own trading and truth

Polymarket said it expects to roll out a new 1:1 USDC-backed collateral token in the coming weeks as part of a broader overhaul of its trading platform, according to a post on X.

The upgrade, described by the company as a “full exchange upgrade,” includes a rebuilt trading engine, updated smart contracts and a new collateral token called Polymarket USD. The token will replace USDC.e, a bridged version of Circle’s USDC stablecoin that originates on Ethereum (ETH) and is wrapped for use on other chains.

USDC.e acts as a stand-in for native USDC but relies on bridge infrastructure, which can introduce added risk and friction. By moving to its own collateralized token, one-to-one with USDC, Polymarket appears to be aiming for tighter control over settlement and liquidity.

The update follows earlier signals that a broader token strategy is in the works. In October, Polymarket’s chief marketing officer confirmed plans for a POLY token but did not provide a timeline or details on its function.

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That token has yet to be formally unveiled. Still, its potential role has drawn attention.

Polymarket has long relied on UMA’s “optimistic oracle” to resolve market outcomes. In that system, users propose results and UMA token holders vote to settle disputes. The design rewards consensus, not accuracy, which critics say can leave outcomes open to influence by large token holders.

Recent controversies, including disputes tied to geopolitically themed markets, have exposed those limits. If POLY is used to internalize resolution, it could mark a shift toward in-house governance of truth.

Read more: Polymarket pulls controversial Iran rescue markets after intense backlash

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One hypothetical model would separate trading from governance. Users would continue placing bets in stablecoins like Polymarket USD, while POLY (if launched) would handle dispute resolution and market curation. That split could allow the platform to price honesty independently from trading outcomes.

Polymarket’s push comes as it rebuilds its presence in the U.S. The platform shut down domestic operations in 2022 but registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in July 2025. Since then, it has reported strong growth and a valuation above $20 billion.

The coming token launch and infrastructure changes suggest the company is tightening control over both trading and truth—two pillars that define prediction markets.

Read more: Prediction markets backlash builds possible stormcloud for 2027

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BlackRock Is Coming for the Most Profitable ETF Monopoly on Wall Street: Why It Could Win

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BlackRock filed with the SEC for an iShares Nasdaq-100 ETF under the proposed ticker IQQ, directly challenging Invesco’s decades-long control over the index.

ETF analyst Eric Balchunas estimated the expense ratio could land near 12 basis points. That would undercut both QQQ at 0.18% and QQQM at 0.15%, setting up one of the biggest ETF battles of 2026.

Fee Aggression and Distribution Power

BlackRock has a track record of entering high-profile categories with aggressive pricing. Its iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) followed the same formula.

It pairs competitive fees with institutional-grade distribution to dominate spot Bitcoin ETF inflows within months.

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The same playbook applies here. If IQQ prices at 10 to 12 bps, fee-sensitive allocators across 401(k) plans, robo-platforms, and advisor model portfolios would have a clear incentive to shift new capital.

BlackRock manages over $14 trillion in total assets and already runs Nasdaq-100 products in Canada, Europe, and Hong Kong. That gives it operational expertise and global reach that Invesco cannot easily replicate.

Cross-selling adds another layer. Advisors already using iShares for core equity, bond, or factor exposure get a seamless Nasdaq-100 addition inside the same ecosystem. BlackRock’s Aladdin analytics platform further locks in large institutional clients.

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Structural Advantages From Day One

IQQ would likely launch as a modern open-ended ETF from inception. QQQ only converted from its original unit-investment-trust structure in December 2025. That legacy format carried minor inefficiencies, such as cash drag on dividend reinvestment.

Fee comparison table of IQQ projected vs. QQQ vs. QQQM
Fee comparison table of IQQ projected vs. QQQ vs. QQQM, Source: BeInCrypto

BlackRock is also a leader in securities lending revenue, which can offset fund costs further. Combined with its tracking expertise from running global Nasdaq-100 versions, IQQ starts with fewer structural compromises than its competitor carried for over two decades.

Market conditions favor the challenge as well. The Nasdaq-100 continues to attract capital as a concentrated growth engine weighted toward mega-cap innovation leaders.

Lower fees through competition could expand the total addressable market, pulling in capital that previously went to broader index products.

Why QQQ Won’t Fall Easily

Despite these advantages, fully displacing QQQ remains unlikely in the near term. QQQ trades tens of millions of shares daily with some of the tightest spreads in the ETF market.

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Its options and futures ecosystem is deeply embedded in institutional trading strategies.

Invesco holds roughly $360 to $370 billion in QQQ assets and another $70 billion in QQQM. That combined base of over $430 billion comes with more than 25 years of brand recognition.

Switching friction also protects the incumbent. Taxable account holders face capital gains on any move. Even in retirement accounts, the shift requires active decisions by advisors.

Historical precedent also backs the incumbents. SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) still leads in daily trading volume despite higher fees than iShares’ IVV and Vanguard’s VOO.

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Challengers rarely overtake the original on liquidity, even when they win on cost.

A Realistic Outcome

The most probable scenario falls between total disruption and failure. BlackRock could realistically pull $20 to $50 billion within the first two to three years by capturing new inflows and peeling away fee-sensitive long-term holders from QQQM.

Total Nasdaq-100 ETF assets would likely grow faster overall as fee compression draws in fresh capital.

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Invesco may respond with further cuts to QQQM or new product variants to defend its position.

The full prospectus, including the confirmed expense ratio, has not yet been published. That single number will set the trajectory for everything that follows.

The post BlackRock Is Coming for the Most Profitable ETF Monopoly on Wall Street: Why It Could Win appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Aave loses key risk manager Chaos Labs amid contributor exodus and disputes

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Aave loses key risk manager Chaos Labs amid contributor exodus and disputes

Chaos Labs, one of Aave’s key risk managers, is leaving the DeFi lending giant’s ecosystem, marking the latest in a string of high-profile contributor exits that have reshaped the protocol’s core operating team in recent months.

The departure follows earlier exits from major contributors like ACI (Aave Chan Initiative) and BGD Labs, signaling growing internal friction over the protocol’s direction.

Since 2022, Chaos Labs has overseen risk across Aave’s markets, helping the protocol grow from roughly $5 billion to more than $26 billion in total value locked, while maintaining “zero material bad debt.” But despite that track record, the firm says it can no longer continue under current conditions.

“The engagement no longer reflects how we believe risk should be managed,” said Omer Goldberg, CEO of Chaos Labs, in a post on X, pointing to a “fundamental misalignment” with Aave’s evolving strategy.

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A key sticking point is Aave’s V4 upgrade, which introduces a new architecture and significantly expands the scope of risk management. Chaos argues this shift increases both operational complexity and responsibility, without a matching increase in resources or alignment.

“Taking on something new responsibly requires new infrastructure… and the full operational burden of going from zero to one again,” Goldberg wrote.

The firm also flagged economics as unsustainable. Even with a proposed $5 million budget, Chaos said it has been operating at a loss and would continue to do so. “Even with an increase of $1m, we’d still be operating Aave’s risk with negative margins,” Goldberg said.

At the same time, Chaos warned that the loss of experienced contributors is raising operational risk, especially as Aave transitions between versions. “Continuity of brand is not the same thing as continuity of system,” Goldberg wrote.

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For Aave, the departure leaves open questions around how risk will be managed through its next phase of growth.

CoinDesk reached out to Aave Labs for comment but did not receive a response by the time of publication.

Read more: Aave governance rift deepens as major governance group exits $26 billion DeFi protocol

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Ethereum climbs to No. 2 ‘wartime’ asset, Tom Lee says

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Virtuals Protocol brings AI agent commerce to Arbitrum in new integration

Tom Lee says Ethereum has become the No. 2 “wartime” asset, outpacing Bitcoin and stocks as war spending surges and crypto gains appeal as a liquidity and risk trade.

Summary

  • Fundstrat’s Tom Lee says Ethereum is now the second best-performing asset since the Middle East conflict began, ahead of Bitcoin and stocks.
  • Lee estimates war spending at $30b per month, rising potentially to $100b, while $10 moves in oil add only $4b–$5b in monthly consumer pressure.
  • He argues this backdrop makes crypto more attractive as “liquidity and risk assets,” boosting allocation demand for Ethereum and Bitcoin.

Since the latest Middle East conflict escalated, Ethereum has become the second best‑performing major asset globally, trailing only top safe‑haven trades and beating both Bitcoin and equities, according to Fundstrat co‑founder Tom Lee. In a recent post shared by the TomLeeTracker X account, Lee said that while “crypto has been outperforming since the war started,” Ether has led the pack, with Bitcoin ranking third and both digital assets “significantly” outpacing the stock market.

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Lee quantified the current war impulse at roughly $30 billion per month in additional government outlays and warned that this figure “could rise to a scale of $100 billion” if the conflict broadens, effectively turning defense budgets into a persistent fiscal shock.

By contrast, he argued that the drag from higher oil is smaller than many investors assume, saying each $10 increase in crude prices adds only about $4 billion to $5 billion per month in pressure on US consumers. That arithmetic, Lee contends, means the net macro effect still leans toward stimulus rather than contraction, even with oil near $100 per barrel.

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Fundstrat’s March research, cited by Lee and first reported by DL News and Yahoo Finance, shows Ethereum up roughly 17% on a relative basis versus the S&P 500 since the US‑Israeli conflict with Iran began in late February, beating Bitcoin, gold, real estate, MSCI World Energy and the “Magnificent 7” tech stocks. “As a wartime store of value, crypto looks a lot stronger,” Lee said, adding that “crypto has been outperforming since the war started while gold has actually underperformed,” a view echoed in his call to “ditch gold, buy crypto” during the conflict.

Ethereum’s performance is also underpinned by structural factors, including a market cap near $230 billion, growing institutional positioning and a staking rate approaching 30% of total supply that tightens available float. Lee, a long‑time Ether bull who chairs Bitmine Immersion Technologies, has maintained a long‑term price target of $250,000 for ETH and recently backed that stance with action, as Bitmine disclosed another $133 million purchase that lifted its Ethereum holdings above $9 billion.

Against this backdrop of elevated fiscal spending and volatile energy prices, Lee says the allocation value of crypto as both “liquidity and risk assets” is rising. He argues that defense outlays and still‑accommodative financial conditions create a powerful liquidity environment in which high‑beta assets such as Ethereum and Bitcoin can benefit disproportionately, even as headlines are dominated by war and oil shocks. In earlier research notes covered by outlets like MarketWatch and other financial media, Lee has emphasized that “stock markets bottom in the early stages of military conflict,” suggesting the recent outperformance of Ether and Bitcoin could be an early signal of how capital will be repriced if the conflict and spending surge persist.

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Bitcoin futures open interest jumps 8% in a day, Coinglass shows

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46% of Bitcoin supply now in loss, near 2022 bear levels

Binance faces renewed questions over its $4.3b post-plea cleanup as crime-monitoring staff depart and chief compliance officer Noah Perlman weighs an exit.

Summary

  • Total Bitcoin futures open interest rose 8.09% in 24 hours to $50.804b, according to Coinglass.
  • Binance leads with $8.887b in open interest, followed by Bybit, Gate, and OKX.
  • The build-up in leverage comes as BTC derivatives positioning has repeatedly signaled key turning points in past cycles.

Bitcoin (BTC) futures traders added more than $3.8 billion in new leveraged positions over the past 24 hours, with total BTC contract open interest climbing 8.09% to $50.804 billion, derivatives data provider Coinglass shows. The latest spike pushes notional open interest back toward levels seen ahead of previous breakouts, when Bitcoin derivatives positioning has often front‑run spot price moves, according to prior Coinglass‑based analysis.

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Coinglass data indicates that Binance currently accounts for $8.887 billion of total Bitcoin open interest, making it the single largest venue for BTC futures risk. Bybit’s open interest stands at $4.386 billion, just ahead of Gate’s $4.285 billion, while OKX controls $2.982 billion in outstanding contracts, based on the latest exchange breakdown. Earlier crypto.news reporting on Bitcoin derivatives has highlighted how similar 5%–8% one‑day jumps in open interest have preceded both sharp rallies and sudden liquidations, underscoring that the direction of the next move often depends on whether new positions skew long or short.

The fresh build‑up follows a period of “quiet de‑leveraging” in late 2025, when total BTC futures open interest slipped toward the mid‑$50 billion range and fell roughly 2% in a single day, according to Coinglass‑sourced analysis cited by crypto.news. At that time, aggregate open interest of about 647,700 BTC — roughly $59 billion — suggested systematic trimming of risk rather than panic, as positions eased across CME, Binance, and offshore venues.

By contrast, today’s $50.804 billion figure, up 8.09% in 24 hours, points to traders re‑leveraging into the market, similar to moves seen in May 2025 when Bitcoin futures open interest reached an all‑time high of around $75 billion. In that earlier episode, CME led with $17.43 billion in OI, followed by Binance at $12.41 billion, while an 8% daily jump in Binance’s BTCUSDT open interest alone — equivalent to roughly 10,000 BTC — signaled aggressive positioning that later amplified price volatility.

Open interest measures the total value of outstanding futures that have not been closed and is often used as a proxy for how much leverage is in the system. Rising OI alongside rising prices can indicate new money betting on continuation, while rising OI with flat or falling prices can mark the build‑up of crowded shorts or hedges that may be vulnerable to a squeeze. As of now, Coinglass and other derivatives dashboards show BTC futures open interest near the low‑$50 billion area, below the $57 billion–$75 billion peaks seen during late‑2024 and mid‑2025, but well above levels associated with prior cycle lows.

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US Senator Hagerty Confirms April Timeline for Crypto Market Structure

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Cryptocurrencies, Law, Politics, Congress

US Senate Banking Committee member Bill Hagerty said Monday that he expects a potential path for a digital asset market structure in the coming weeks after months of delays in Congress.

Speaking at the Digital Assets and Emerging Tech Policy Summit at Vanderbilt University, he said his fellow Republican lawmakers planned to move the bill through the banking panel starting next week.

“We will be in a position, I hope, to bring all of this together very soon,” said Hagerty, referring to work on the bill in the Senate. “On the banking committee side, I think we’re very close, and my expectation is that we get it into committee in this next work period that starts on Monday of next week, so that over the next several weeks we should have this into the banking committee.”

The Tennessee senator added:

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“There’re several issues still outstanding, I think none of them are insurmountable and we will get to a point I believe in April that we’ll have it out of the banking committee. There’s still a lot more work to do.”

Cryptocurrencies, Law, Politics, Congress
US Senator Bill Hagerty at the April 6 Digital Assets and Emerging Tech Policy Summit. Source: Blockchain Association

Originally titled the CLARITY Act when it passed the House of Representatives in July, the bill is considered by many lawmakers and industry leaders to be one of the most significant pieces of crypto legislation, but it has faced delays in Congress amid government shutdowns, industry pushback on stablecoin yield and ethics concerns.

It is expected to provide a comprehensive framework for cryptocurrencies in the US, including largely changing oversight of the market from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). 

Because both agencies are involved, the legislation would need approval from the committee responsible for commodities — Senate Agriculture — and that for securities, the banking committee. The agriculture committee advanced its version of the crypto bill in a January markup, but concerns over tokenized equities, ethics, and stablecoin yield have delayed consideration in the banking committee, which needs to hold a markup before a potential floor vote in the Senate.

Related: CFTC chair says agency is ready to oversee entire crypto market

“We’re going into the midterms,” said Hagerty. “I think if we get this done in April, we can clearly get this taken care of before the midterms.”

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Limited window for market structure as crypto potentially influences US elections again

Hagerty’s comments echoed those of Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal, who said last week that lawmakers were “close to a deal” on stablecoin yield and other issues in the market structure bill.

According to the Coinbase-backed advocacy group Stand With Crypto, the way lawmakers vote on the legislation could impact their chances for the 2026 midterms, setting the stage for crypto interest groups to potentially influence another major US election.

The crypto-backed political action committee (PAC) Fairshake, which reported spending more than $130 million on media buys in the 2024 elections, said in January that it had a $193-million war chest ahead of the November 2026 midterms.

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The group is not alone in its support for crypto on the national stage. The Fellowship PAC, which claimed to have raised “over $100 million” from undisclosed backers aligned with the crypto industry, announced the appointment of Tether executive Jesse Spiro as chair on Wednesday.

Magazine: Clarity Act risks repeat of Europe’s mistakes, crypto lawyer warns