Crypto World
Software Sector Under Siege: Why Wall Street Is Sounding the AI Alarm
Key Takeaways
- Citi Research moved six software companies from Buy to Neutral ratings: Similarweb, Docusign, Autodesk, Nice, CCC, and Veeva
- Price target reductions exceeded 40% for multiple companies in the downgrade sweep
- Piper Sandler identifies Anthropic’s Claude Managed Agents as existential risk to legacy software providers
- Investment firms pivot toward cloud hyperscalers Microsoft and Oracle instead of traditional enterprise software
- CNBC’s Jim Cramer confirms hardware-over-software thesis has returned with staying power
In a sweeping move that sent shockwaves through technology markets, Citi Research slashed ratings on six application software companies Friday, moving them from Buy to Neutral. The affected firms include Similarweb, Docusign, Autodesk, Nice, CCC Intelligent Solutions, and Veeva Systems. Share prices declined across the board following the announcement.
Tyler Radke, analyst at Citi, attributed the downgrades to an absence of meaningful near-term catalysts combined with mounting evidence that artificial intelligence is beginning to erode traditional software revenue models. “While we view most of these as quality enterprises potentially well-positioned for the future, they lack compelling 12-month drivers,” Radke explained in his research note.
The firm simultaneously delivered brutal price target cuts. Docusign’s target plummeted from $99 to $50. Veeva experienced a reduction from $291 to $176. Similarweb absorbed the most severe blow, with its target collapsing from $8.50 to just $3.
Radke highlighted a troubling competitive dynamic: privately-held AI enterprises are projected to capture more than $100 billion in incremental revenue in upcoming years. This dwarfs the estimated $50 billion expected from conventional application software providers. Additional headwinds include escalating software optimization expenses and accelerating vendor consolidation trends.
Anthropic’s Agent Platform Intensifies Industry Concerns
Piper Sandler analyst Billy Fitzsimmons identified another catalyst accelerating the software sector’s decline. Anthropic recently unveiled Claude Managed Agents, a preconfigured, customizable agent framework engineered for extended-duration and asynchronous workflows.
Fitzsimmons noted this development fuels apprehension that Anthropic’s agent technology will directly challenge solutions developed by incumbent software vendors. He anticipates sustained negative sentiment toward the software industry extending through year-end at minimum.
Piper Sandler reduced ratings on multiple sector names while expressing preference for businesses that monetize AI computational resources directly. The firm highlighted Microsoft and Oracle as preferred investments, emphasizing their Azure and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure platforms respectively.
Microsoft currently trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 20x based on 2027 projections while producing $77.4 billion in levered free cash flow. Despite a 27% contraction over the preceding six months, Piper Sandler characterizes the valuation as attractive.
Infrastructure Players Benefit from Software Sector Exodus
CNBC’s Jim Cramer drew attention to the expanding performance gap between hardware and software equities Thursday. He observed that the “buy hardware, sell software” positioning that dominated early 2026 trading has made a decisive comeback.
Salesforce declined nearly 3% while Adobe surrendered approximately 4% Thursday. The IGV software ETF, serving as a primary sector benchmark, tumbled more than 4%. CrowdStrike dropped 7.5% despite its cybersecurity focus, primarily due to its inclusion in the fund.
Conversely, hardware manufacturers rallied. Marvell Technology and Intel each advanced close to 5%. Corning, a supplier of data center materials, appreciated 2.85%.
Cramer characterized the dynamic as AI infrastructure providers commanding premium valuations while enterprise software faces treatment as a contracting industry. He suggested this pattern shows limited signs of reversing soon.
Piper Sandler separately highlighted Global-e Online as a favored selection. The company’s business model ties to ecommerce transaction volumes rather than software license counts, with management projecting 29% revenue expansion this year.
United States President Donald Trump is facing renewed scrutiny, as crypto tokens and projects promoted by the US president crash to all-time lows or sit near record low levels.
The Official Trump token (TRUMP), a memecoin promoted by Trump, hit an all-time low of about $2.73 in March 2026 and is currently trading at about $2.86, according to data from CoinGecko.
World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a decentralized finance (DeFi) platform co-founded by Trump’s sons, also issued a governance token, which crashed to an all-time low on Saturday, falling to just $0.07.
WLFI is down by nearly 75% from its all-time high of about $0.31 reached in September 2025, while the TRUMP memecoin is down by about 90% since its all-time high of over $73 reached in January 2025.
“We thought Sam Bankman-Fried or Gary Gensler were the worst things to happen to the crypto industry, and they were horrible,” Professor Tonya Evans said in response to the plummeting token prices. She added:
“But, turns out, it was the guy who surrounds himself with sycophants, siphons every bit of value he can for himself, and then expeditiously bankrupts companies and casinos without consequence.”
President Trump also announced another gala for token holders, scheduled to take place on April 25, fueling renewed scrutiny from US Democratic lawmakers, who have accused Trump of influence peddling by giving token holders access to him.
Related: Trump memecoin whales pile in ahead of Mar-a-Lago gala
US lawmakers send letter to Trump memecoin creator
Senators Elizabeth Warren, Richard Blumenthal and Adam Schiff recently sent a letter to Bill Zanker, the individual who launched the Trump memecoin, requesting details on the purpose of the planned Trump memecoin gala in April.
The organizers of the event are “dangling access” to Trump, the lawmakers said, according to Politico, which obtained a copy of the letter.
Trump and his family members stand to benefit from increased sales of the Trump memecoin; attendees are required to hold TRUMP tokens to gain access to the event, the Senators said.
Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions
Liquidity in Bitcoin markets remains fragile more than six months after the Oct. 10, 2025 flash crash, which wiped out roughly $19 billion in leveraged positions and unsettled market structure. New data compiled by market analytics firms indicate a persistent erosion of depth across the Bitcoin orderbook, with liquidity collapsing roughly 50% from levels seen in September 2025 and reappearing as a recurring theme into 2026.
Analysts note that the fragility appears driven more by evolving market dynamics in 2026 than by the October 2025 shock alone. Indicators point to a thinner orderbook, cautious bullish leverage demand, and mixed signals from derivatives activity and ETF trading. The evolving picture suggests a market that remains structurally more fragile than a year prior, even as certain segments intermittently regain activity.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin orderbook depth has fallen about 50% since September 2025, signaling a persistent liquidity squeeze across the market.
- By February 2026, liquidity metrics showed renewed strain, with Bitcoin orderbook depth dropping below $60 million for roughly 10 days as the price hovered near $65,000.
- Derivatives volumes cooled relative to the late-2025 peak, while US-listed BTC ETFs surged at times but trended lower into April 2026; ETH ETFs also cooled, with volumes dipping from earlier levels.
- The BTC perpetual futures funding rate indicates shifting risk appetite: historically normal ranges gave way to stability in late 2025, followed by a pullback toward negative territory in February 2026, signaling renewed hedging pressure.
- Even with the Oct. 2025 crash, market structure held relatively firm through February 2026, implying the long-term significance of that event may be less than initially feared.
Liquidity pressure persists after the 2025 crash
In the run-up to the crash, the aggregate Bitcoin orderbook depth, measured on the +1% to -1% axis, typically fluctuated between roughly $180 million and $260 million in September 2025. On Oct. 10, 2025, a confluence of technical issues at major venues and auto-deleveraging on decentralized exchanges triggered a liquidity lapse that many observers attributed to structural fragility in the space. By mid-November 2025, depth had recovered only modestly, hovering near $150 million, far below the pre-crash range.
As 2026 progressed, the erosion persisted. By April 2026, Bitcoin’s orderbook depth seldom exceeded $130 million, keeping the market in a state of diminished resilience. A more acute squeeze appeared in February 2026, when depth dipped below $60 million for about 10 days as Bitcoin traded around the $65,000 mark. Taken together, these trends paint a market where liquidity is consistently thinner than in the years prior to 2025.
Derivatives volumes and ETF demand map the pulse
Analyses tracking overall market activity show derivatives volumes fluctuating within a narrower band than during the peak of 2025. Over the past 30 days, cryptocurrency derivatives volumes have cycled between roughly $40 billion and $130 billion, well short of the $200 billion peak observed in September 2025. While the softer derivatives backdrop may temper near-term bullish bets, it is not automatically a bearish signal, as longs and shorts have been relatively balanced on average during this period.
On the exchange-traded fund (ETF) side, activity has been mixed. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs moved to more robust daily levels between January and March 2026, typically trading above $4 billion per day, before easing to under $3.3 billion in the first week of April. For Ether, ETF volumes declined from roughly $2 billion per day in September 2025 to about $1 billion per day in the first weeks of 2026, a sign that demand for ETF exposure remained sensitive to evolving market conditions.
Source data for these ETF volumes often cited Coinglass, while other data series tracking broader volumes came from TokenInsight for total crypto trading activity and Laevitas for futures funding dynamics.
Funding rate signals shifting risk appetite
The Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rate—a barometer of market-wide risk appetite—typically ranges from 6% to 12% annually to compensate for the cost of capital. In the months surrounding the 2025 crash, funding remained relatively stable through November 2025, suggesting a balance between long and short positioning. A notable shift appeared in February 2026, when the funding rate moved toward lower figures, with periods of negative funding emerging, indicating that shorts were occasionally paying to keep their positions open. This pattern aligns with a broader tightening of bullish leverage and a more cautious stance among traders during that interval.
These dynamics illustrate how risk sentiment can diverge from headline price moves: even as BTC traded in a wide range, funding parity reflected tempered appetite for leverage and a heightened emphasis on hedging and risk control.
Market structure vs. the Oct crash: what changed?
One of the more nuanced takeaways from the data is that, while the Oct. 2025 flash crash catalyzed immediate concern, the market’s underlying structure appeared to hold up comparatively well through February 2026. In other words, the material impact on market health may have been more transient than anticipated, with liquidity and derivative activity not collapsing in lockstep with the initial shock. Nonetheless, the late-2025 to early-2026 data point to a market that remains structurally thinner than pre-crash levels, and a recovery in core liquidity remains a critical watchpoint for traders and institutions alike.
For readers tracking these dynamics, recent coverage also highlighted steps by major exchanges to curb abnormal executions and improve trading guardrails, a reminder that post-crash reform continues to shape market behavior. See related coverage noting Binance’s enhancements to trading guardrails as part of ongoing risk-control measures.
As regulators, market makers, and investor desks reassess liquidity provisioning, the next few months will reveal whether the 2026 liquidity baseline can stabilize at higher levels or if the fragility persists. Investors will want to monitor orderbook depth across major venues, the pace of ETF inflows, and the evolution of futures funding as signals of broader risk appetite and structural resilience return to the market.
TLDR:
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of 3,350 BTC, worth roughly $240M, in a single trading day.
- BlackRock led all issuers with 3,741 BTC in daily inflows, driving the bulk of the day’s net positive result.
- Grayscale posted another 162 BTC outflow, continuing a months-long pattern of legacy holder redemptions.
- The 7-day cumulative inflow reached 7,358 BTC, confirming a broader and sustained accumulation wave forming.
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows recorded 3,350 BTC, worth approximately $240 million, in a single trading day. BlackRock led all issuers while Grayscale continued its steady outflow trend.
ETFs now collectively hold 721,090 BTC valued at roughly $56.75 billion, reflecting a sustained shift in Bitcoin ownership from active market circulation into long-term institutional balance sheets.
BlackRock Leads a Two-Speed ETF Market
Bitcoin ETF inflows continue to reflect a clear divide among issuers. BlackRock recorded a single-day inflow of 3,741 BTC, accounting for the bulk of the day’s net positive figure.
That one entry essentially drove the entire day’s result across all spot ETF products. Grayscale posted another outflow of 162 BTC, extending a pattern that has held for months.
Legacy holders are exiting while new institutional capital enters through lower-fee, more efficient vehicles. Fidelity, Bitwise, and ARK Invest contributed steady secondary demand but remain well behind BlackRock in volume.
The contrast between issuers reflects a broader rotation in how institutions access Bitcoin. Newer, cost-efficient products are attracting the larger flows.
Older structures continue to see gradual redemptions as capital migrates toward better-structured options. This two-speed dynamic shows no sign of reversing in the near term.
721,000 BTC Absorbed as Supply Squeeze Builds
ETFs collectively hold 721,090 BTC, valued at approximately $56.75 billion, marking a structural shift in Bitcoin ownership. Coins entering ETF products tend to remain there, reducing the amount of Bitcoin available for active trading.
Each inflow day quietly removes more supply from the liquid market. The 7-day cumulative inflow total reached 7,358 BTC, confirming that the single-day figure was not an isolated event.
Despite periodic outflow days visible in the daily flow data, the cumulative trend line has continued moving upward. That resilience points to consistent absorption, where selling pressure is steadily met by fresh institutional demand.
Meanwhile, Ethereum products showed mixed flows, and Solana-linked products recorded net outflows over the same period. That divergence reinforces Bitcoin’s position as the primary institutional entry point among digital assets.
In transitional market phases, capital tends to consolidate into the most established asset, and Bitcoin continues to fill that role.
With sell-side liquidity thinning, marginal buyers are increasingly required to bid higher to acquire meaningful size. The accumulation slope accelerated in late 2024 and again in mid-2025, both phases aligning with rising price momentum.
Yesterday’s inflow pattern suggests a similar setup may be forming if consecutive positive days follow.
World Liberty Financial has scrambled to pay down $25 million of its highly scrutinized loan on the DeFi lending protocol Dolomite.
The immediate repayments comprise $15 million on April 7 and an additional $10 million on April 10. These payments arrive amid mounting industry backlash over the project’s use of its own token as collateral.
WLFI’s Repayment Follows Intense Community Pressure
Data from BeInCrypto showed that the ongoing controversy dragged the WLFI token down to an all-time low of $0.07967. This is its weakest performance since the project’s highly publicized rollout in 2025.
The market rout follows revelations that World Liberty essentially used its own governance tokens as collateral to extract massive quantities of stablecoins.
According to Arkham Intelligence, the Trump-affiliated venture pledged roughly $406 million worth of WLFI across two digital wallets to borrow $150 million in USDC.
This maneuver rapidly depleted Dolomite’s USD1 lending pool, pushing utilization rates above 93%. Consequently, retail depositors faced a severe liquidity crunch, making it difficult to withdraw their funds.
Meanwhile, the optics of the transaction were further complicated by intertwined leadership. Dolomite co-founder Corey Caplan currently serves as an official advisor to World Liberty Financial.
As the digital asset’s price cratered, DeFi analysts raised alarms regarding the systemic risk of bad debt. WLFI’s collateral now accounts for approximately 55% of Dolomite’s $835.7 million in total value locked, heavily concentrating risk in a single, depreciating asset.
World Liberty Financial Dismisses ‘FUD’
However, World Liberty executives have aggressively pushed back against the market anxiety, dismissing insolvency fears as “FUD.”
In a series of social media statements, the developers argued that their massive borrowing benefits the broader ecosystem. They claimed that acting as an “anchor borrower” generates outsized yield for other participants.
However, critics warned that a sharper decline could raise the risk of bad debt for lenders if collateral values fall faster than the position can be adjusted. World Liberty rejected that scenario, saying it could post more collateral if needed.
“We are one of the largest suppliers and borrowers on WLFI Markets. Yes, we supplied WLFI as collateral and borrowed stablecoins. No, we are nowhere near liquidation — and frankly, even if markets moved dramatically against us, we’d simply supply more collateral. That’s not a risk. That’s how this works,” the team added.
In a simultaneous bid to appease early backers facing steep paper losses, World Liberty announced an upcoming governance proposal to unlock restricted tokens.
According to the team, the proposed framework will feature a structured, long-term vesting schedule specifically targeted at early retail buyers.
The post WLFI Token Hits All-Time Low Amid World Liberty’s DeFi Lending Controversy appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Key takeaways:
-
Bitcoin orderbook depth has plummeted by 50% since September 2025, signaling a substantial decline in overall market liquidity.
-
Indicators suggest that the current market fragility stems more from recent 2026 trends than from the 2025 flash crash itself.
Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto markets took a massive hit on Oct. 10, 2025, precisely 6 months ago. That devastating flash crash wiped out a record-breaking $19 billion in leveraged positions while some altcoins collapsed 40% to 80%. Many traders speculated that multiple market makers had been wiped out, while others accused the Binance exchange of blatant manipulation.
Was the crypto market structure actually altered after the October 2025 crash, and what has changed in liquidity, derivatives markets, and institutional metrics?
Bitcoin’s aggregate orderbook depth, ranging from +1% to -1%, typically oscillated between $180 million and $260 million in September 2025. On most days, there would be a healthy $90 million in bids, but that was not the case on Oct. 10, 2025. A mix of technical issues at Binance and auto-deleveraging on decentralized exchanges caused a temporary liquidity lapse.
During the flash crash, Bitcoin’s orderbook depth entered a downward spiral, stabilizing near $150 million by mid-November 2025. Currently, Bitcoin’s order book depth seldom exceeds $130 million, down 50% from levels seen in September 2025.
The already fragile market conditions deteriorated further in February 2026. Bitcoin’s orderbook depth plunged below $60 million for nearly 10 days as the price struggled to hold the $65,000 level. Cryptocurrency market volumes declined considerably, especially in the derivatives markets.
Cryptocurrency derivatives volumes oscillated between $40 billion and $130 billion over the past 30 days, falling short of the $200 billion mark commonly seen in September 2025. Still, the reduced appetite for futures contracts is not necessarily a bearish indicator as longs (buyers) and shorts (sellers) are evenly matched at all times.
Demand for bullish leverage remains weak, ETF volumes lag
The Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rate can be used to assess traders’ risk appetite.
Under normal conditions, the indicator should range between 6% to 12% to compensate for the cost of capital. Excessive demand for bearish leverage can push the indicator below 0%, meaning shorts are the ones paying to keep their positions open. Data indicate stable conditions throughout November 2025, followed by a sharp decline in February 2026.
Curiously, volumes of US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were not impacted by the Oct. 10, 2025 flash crash. In fact, by late November, activity in those instruments jumped to their highest levels in 20 months at $11.5 billion per day.
Related: Binance adds spot trading guardrails to limit abnormal executions
Bitcoin ETFs regularly traded at volumes above $4 billion per day between January and March 2026, but eventually fell below $3.3 billion by the first week of April. Similarly, US-listed Ether (ETH) ETFs average daily volume dropped to $1 billion, down from $2 billion in September 2025.
Orderbook depth, funding rate, derivatives and ETF volumes all point to a much less healthy cryptocurrency market in April 2026 relative to 6 months prior. However, given that the market structure held relatively firm through February 2026, the relevance of the Oct. 10, 2025 flash crash seems much less than previously imagined.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content.
The Ether Machine and Dynamix Corporation (NASDAQ: ETHM) have mutually terminated their business combination agreement, effective April 8, 2026.
In a post on X, the firm stated that the deal fell through due to unfavorable market conditions.
Ether Machine Cites “Unfavorable Market Conditions” as SPAC Merger Dies
The Ether Machine first unveiled plans to go public in July 2025, targeting more than $1.5 billion in fully committed capital and an initial treasury of more than 400,000 ETH.
The proposed deal drew backing from major industry players, including Pantera Capital, Kraken, and Blockchain.com.
However, the deal did not reach the finish line.
“The Ether Machine, a planned public company following a pending business combination with Dynamix Corporation (Nasdaq: ETHM) and The Ether Reserve LLC, together with certain other parties thereto, announced today that they have mutually agreed to terminate their previously announced Business Combination Agreement, effective immediately, as a result of unfavorable market conditions,’ the post read.
The termination comes as the crypto market continues to face headwinds. Asset prices have declined sharply since October, and Q1 2026 has added further pressure.
While geopolitical tensions briefly lifted Ethereum, the token still remains nearly 55% below its all-time high set in August 2025.
The impact is not limited to The Ether Machine. BitMine, the largest corporate ETH holder, is sitting on roughly $6.5 billion in unrealized losses, with its stock down 31.7% year to date.
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The pattern extends beyond ETH as well. Bitcoin treasury firms have also faced pressure, with some moving to liquidate their holdings.
$50 Million Termination Fee and Indemnification Provisions
According to the 8-K filing with the SEC, the termination agreement includes mutual releases, a covenant not to sue, and non-disparagement clauses. The designated “Payor” also must pay $50 million to Dynamix within 15 days of the agreement’s effective date.
“The Termination Agreement further provides that the Payor will indemnify Dynamix, the Sponsor and their affiliates and the Berns Parties for certain losses arising out of or caused by or based upon certain actions brought by any ETHM Investor other than an ETHM Investor that is a SPAC Releasing Party and that Dynamix will indemnify Pubco, the Company, the Seller, the Payor and their affiliates and the Berns Parties for certain losses arising out of or caused by or based upon certain actions brought by any Dynamix shareholder, in their capacity as a shareholder, who is not an ETHM Investor,” the filing reads.
Dynamix has until November 22, 2026, to complete a business combination or face liquidation. If no deal is finalized, public shareholders will receive pro-rata redemptions from the trust account.
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The post $1.5 Billion Ethereum Treasury Ether Machine Deal Collapses appeared first on BeInCrypto.
SpaceX is sitting on 8,285 BTC worth $603 million in Coinbase Prime custody while reporting a loss of nearly $5 billion for 2025, according to Arkham Intelligence data and a report from The Information published late Friday.
The loss marks a sharp reversal from a year earlier when SpaceX generated roughly $8 billion in profit on revenues estimated between $15 billion and $16 billion.
Revenue grew to $18.5 billion in 2025, but the integration of xAI, Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence venture acquired in February, drove costs past the top line.
There are no changes to the company’s bitcoin position despite these losses. Transfer history analyzed by CoinDesk shows the last significant movement was an internal rebalance roughly four months ago, with 614 BTC and 1,021 BTC moving between SpaceX’s own wallets.
The balance history chart shows holdings have remained stable since mid-2024 after peaking above $1.6 billion in value during the October 2025 all-time high.
For a company that just posted a $5 billion loss and is actively pursuing an IPO, holding $603 million in a volatile asset rather than liquidating it to improve the balance sheet is a statement about how Musk (or the broad) view bitcoin as a treasury asset.
SpaceX’s position is now the fourth-largest known corporate bitcoin holding behind Strategy, Marathon Digital, and Riot Platforms.
CoinDesk reported last month that SpaceX had filed for an IPO that would disclose the bitcoin position in public filings for the first time, potentially forcing a fair-value accounting decision under the new FASB rules that took effect in late 2025.
Bitcoin is set for a potential short squeeze as on-chain indicators illuminate a crowded setup against a backdrop of rising open interest and persistently negative funding rates. After BTC briefly breached $73,000 last Friday, traders are watching how leveraged shorts might be forced to cover as funding costs stay deeply negative and open interest climbs to a five-week high.
CryptoQuant’s Quicktake analysis highlighted that Bitcoin was “crowded” with short positions, noting that BTC is moving off exchanges while funding rates remain strongly negative. This combination, according to contributors, can amplify a squeeze if demand returns and shorts are compelled to unwind their bets. Source: CryptoQuant
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin open interest rose to about $24.2 billion, the highest since early March, signaling growing leverage as traders position for a potential move.
- Funding rates on major exchanges sit in deeply negative territory, indicating short positions are paying longs and increasing the risk of a forced reversal.
- Analysts say large-scale speculators have turned net long on BTC again, a posture that historically foreshadows a powerful move when conviction builds.
- After BTC cleared $73,000, some market voices eye higher targets, including $80,000 and beyond, though caution remains warranted amid persistent volatility.
- Daily liquidations across the broader crypto space remained subdued, with CoinGlass reporting under $100 million in cross-crypto liquidations over a 24-hour window.
Open interest and the squeeze dynamic
Analysts have flagged that the confluence of rising open interest and continuous negative funding rates creates a precarious setup for Bitcoin’s upside trade. Since March, negative funding has become more frequent and has persisted through April, reinforcing a narrative where shorts have dominated the market. CoinNiel summarized the situation, noting that “shorts paying longs” amid a tightening squeeze environment increases the potential for a reversal driven by forced liquidations when prices move against crowded bets. CryptoQuant analysis and accompanying posts have framed the setup as a developing risk for anyone wagering on continued upside with overweight leverage.
Bitcoin’s price action recently reignited the debate around who’s in control. BTC/USD pushed past $73,000 on Friday, a move traders interpreted as a potential catalyst for a squeeze if short bets were to unwind aggressively. Open interest’s uptick to five-week highs, paired with the negative funding climate, has kept the market on edge about a rapid shift in momentum.
“Since March, negative funding has become more frequent, and throughout April it has remained in negative territory without flipping positive.”
In this context, CoinNiel cautioned that the combination of rising open interest and negative funding suggests an accumulation of leveraged short exposure, warning that the current range could still be a zone of buying demand rather than a clean breakout. Further Quicktake notes reinforce the view that the market remains cautious despite the bounce in price.
Sentiment, positioning, and trader perspectives
Market voices have begun to point to a potential shift in sentiment as large-volume participants tilt toward a net-long stance. Trader Michaël van de Poppe noted that speculators are net long Bitcoin, drawing a parallel with prior occasions when similar positioning preceded a notable breakout in 2023. His observation, echoed by others tracking the positioning of institutional and high-net-worth traders, underscores a tension between a crowded short setup and a growing conviction among bulls that a new leg higher could be underway. Van de Poppe’s commentary highlights the evolving consensus among key market participants.
Despite the renewed optimism among some traders, risk remains. The market has not yet exhibited a sharp deleveraging that would accompany a decisive breakout; instead, it sits at a fragile equilibrium where shorts could be squeezed only if buyers sustain pressure, while a renewed wave of selling could reintroduce downward volatility.
What to watch next
Several data points will be critical to assess the likelihood and scale of any squeeze or new rally:
- Funding rates and exchange net flows: Continued negative funding and ongoing outflows from exchange wallets would reinforce the crowded-short narrative and caution against premature bullish bets.
- Open interest dynamics: Whether open interest maintains its upward trajectory or begins to roll over will signal whether leverage is expanding or unwinding.
- Liquidation activity: Short-term spikes in cross-asset liquidations could foreshadow a rapid price revaluation, though the current snapshot shows relatively modest liquidation levels (under $100 million over 24 hours according to CoinGlass).
- Key price targets and risk markers: Trader targets around $80,000 and higher are in circulation, but traders caution that the market remains vulnerable to shifts in macro momentum or regulatory headlines that could reverse the trend.
Taken together, the setup suggests a careful balance between a potential burst higher if shorts capitulate and the risk of a quick reversal if the market fails to sustain upside momentum. As always, participants should monitor on-chain signals, funding costs, and liquidity conditions to gauge whether the next move is a breakout or a test of support.
This article synthesizes observations from CryptoQuant’s Quicktake posts, CoinNiel’s summaries, CoinGlass liquidity data, and trader commentary from Michaël van de Poppe, in the context of BTC’s recent price action around $73,000 and the broader narrative on leveraged positioning in crypto markets.
TLDR:
- Bhutan reduced its Bitcoin holdings by 70%, from 13,000 BTC to 3,954 BTC, since October 2024.
- Over $215.7 million in BTC has moved out of Bhutan’s holding addresses in 2026 alone.
- Bhutan’s last Bitcoin mining inflow above $100,000 was recorded more than one year ago.
- Bhutan’s remaining 3,954 BTC is now less than what Strategy typically buys in one week.
Bhutan Bitcoin sell-off data confirms the kingdom has reduced its holdings by roughly 70% over the past 18 months.
Once sitting on approximately 13,000 BTC accumulated through a hydropower-backed mining operation, Bhutan now retains just 3,954 BTC valued at around $280.6 million.
Arkham Intelligence data shows over $215.7 million in BTC has already moved out of Bhutan’s holding addresses in 2026 alone, with no public comment from Druk Holding and Investments.
Steady Outflows and Slowing Mining Signal a Strategic Shift in Bhutan’s Bitcoin Position
Bhutan’s sell-off traces back to October 2024, when the kingdom held roughly 13,000 BTC. Arkham Intelligence data shows a steady, methodical drawdown rather than a single liquidation event.
Over $215.7 million in BTC has left Bhutan’s holding addresses in 2026 alone. A notable portion of these outflows has been routed to unlabeled wallets, while others have been sent to addresses linked to Galaxy Digital and OKX.
That pattern points to direct market sales rather than simple fund repositioning. In one recent transfer, roughly 319.7 BTC, worth $22.68 million, moved to two separate addresses in a single transaction.
Bhutan originally built its Bitcoin reserve through a hydropower-backed domestic mining operation run by Druk Holding and Investments. However, Arkham data shows no mining inflow exceeding $100,000 has been recorded in over a year.
The operation that once converted river energy into Bitcoin appears to have slowed considerably or stopped entirely.
The economics behind this shift are straightforward. Bhutan’s mining operation worked when network difficulty was lower, and Bitcoin traded above $90,000.
At current levels near $71,000, with difficulty at all-time highs and post-halving block rewards cut to 3.125 BTC, margins have compressed sharply. Selling hydropower directly to neighboring India may now generate more predictable revenue than mining Bitcoin.
Bhutan’s Retreat Stands Out as Institutional Buyers Continue Accumulating Bitcoin
Bhutan’s sell-off runs directly against the broader trend among institutional and sovereign-level holders. Strategy purchased 4,871 BTC for $330 million in a single weekend, bringing its total to 766,970 BTC.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed approximately 50,000 BTC in March alone, reflecting sustained institutional demand.
The contrast sharpens further when other market participants are considered. The Ethereum Foundation staked $93 million in ether rather than selling during the same period.
Bhutan currently stands as the only sovereign-level holder visibly reducing its Bitcoin position while others continue to accumulate. Bhutan’s remaining 3,954 BTC is now smaller than what Strategy acquires in a typical week.
The kingdom once mined 13,000 BTC directly from its own rivers and mountains. Druk Holding and Investments has not responded to multiple media inquiries, leaving the future of both its reserve and mining operations publicly unanswered.
Crypto World
Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction: ETF Inflows Hit 23,039 ETH, Pepeto Presale, and Why 2026 Changes Everything
The ethereum price prediction just got a shot of confidence after spot ETFs absorbed 23,039 ETH worth over $51 million in a single session, marking one of the strongest institutional buying days of the year.
That kind of demand is bullish for the ETH outlook long term, but months could pass before the buying pressure shows up in the price chart. Pepeto pulled in more than $8.9 million during the same correction window with the Binance listing confirmed.
Pepe went from its presale price to $11 billion, and the wallets that moved early locked in the biggest returns of their lives. That same setup is forming right now because over $8.9 million flowing in during Extreme Fear at 16 does not happen without serious conviction behind it.
Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a net inflow of 23,039 ETH on April 10, worth roughly $51 million, while Bitcoin ETFs pulled in 4,614 BTC the same day, according to Lookonchain. TD Cowen set an ETH target of $3,650 for December 2026 in the same week, according to CoinDesk.
The real question is whether sitting for months waiting for that catalyst makes the best use of capital when a single listing event delivers the return the ethereum price prediction needs a full year to reach.
The Platform That Puts You in Control Instead of Making You Wait
Pepeto
No one can promise ETH makes a big move anytime soon, and that is exactly why the verified exchange creates such a strong opportunity right now. Pepeto is where analysts project 100x to 300x, which at current pricing could be life changing for every wallet that enters before the Binance listing.
Over $8.9 million raised while the correction crushed every chart proves the conviction behind this project. The core driver is the exchange, a full platform in one clean space that already runs. The tools find entries others miss, check contracts before your capital moves, handle research that takes hours in minutes, and track how direction shifts in real time so you never end up guessing.
Because the ETH outlook depends on macro factors that keep it range-bound, the exchange gives you a way to act now instead of sitting idle. Over $8,920,333 raised at $0.000000186 with 185% APY staking that compounds positions as stages fill. SolidProof audited every contract before the presale opened, and the founder who took the original Pepe coin to $11 billion on 420 trillion tokens engineered the exchange with a former Binance expert.
The first listing move could be massive, but the exchange and the demand it builds will stay active for years because Pepeto solves a daily problem that outlasts any single market cycle.
Ethereum Price Prediction 2026 to 2030
Ethereum (ETH) trades at $2,249 according to CoinMarketCap, holding above the $2,200 support that stabilized through the correction. The ethereum price prediction turns bullish if the price breaks $2,300 resistance and clears the 50 day SMA near $2,400, which opens a path to $2,600 and then the $3,000 level.
TD Cowen puts ETH at $3,650 by December 2026. The ETH/BTC ratio near 0.031 sits at multi-year lows, showing a wide gap between value and price. By 2027, models target $4,000 to $5,500 if institutional flows from ETFs and staking products pick up. The most bullish ethereum price prediction for 2030 targets $8,000 to $12,000 if ETF adoption mirrors the BTC path. The setup breaks if ETH loses $2,100 and slides toward $1,900.
Conclusion
The ethereum price prediction might not deliver much movement in the short term even though the ETF inflow data shows institutional money is building positions right now. Waiting for the Fed, for the CLARITY Act, and for macro conditions to clear means waiting for permission that might not come this year.
The verified exchange already has everything it needs to deliver from the Binance listing, letting the wallets inside be bullish on their own terms without needing macro permission. Visit Pepeto’s official site while the ethereum price prediction stalls, because entering now means you are the one who made the right move at the right time, and Pepe’s explosion from presale to $11 billion proved that early wallets changed their whole life while everyone who waited spent the cycle wishing they had acted when the entry was still open.
Click To Visit Pepeto Website To Enter The Presale
FAQs
What does the record ETH ETF inflow mean for the ethereum price prediction?
Spot Ethereum ETFs absorbed 23,039 ETH on April 10, adding over $51 million in institutional demand that pulls supply off the market. ETH still needs to break $2,300 and hold the 50 day SMA near $2,400 for the bullish target of $3,650 to open up.
How does Ethereum’s price at $2,249 compare to Pepeto’s expected listing return?
Ethereum needs to gain roughly 63% from $2,249 to reach TD Cowen’s $3,650 target over eight months. Pepeto’s Binance listing carries analyst projections of 100x to 300x from the presale price of $0.000000186.
Disclaimer: This is a Press Release provided by a third party who is responsible for the content. Please conduct your own research before taking any action based on the content.
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