Crypto World
Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) best positioned in prediction market space, says Cantor
Trading venues Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN) could emerge as the main public-market beneficiaries of the rapid rise in prediction markets, according to a new report from Cantor Fitzgerald.
The report argues that while leading platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket remain private, listed companies are already tapping into the trend by integrating event-based trading into their apps.
These markets let users buy contracts tied to real-world outcomes, from elections to economic data, with prices reflecting the crowd’s view of probability.
“Prediction markets have exploded onto the scene,” Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Ramsey El-Assal wrote, noting that contract volumes are expected to continue their “impressive recent growth trend.”
For firms like Robinhood and Coinbase, the appeal is straightforward. Prediction markets generate revenue through trading activity, not by taking the other side of bets. That model mirrors equities and crypto trading, where both companies already operate at scale.
Robinhood, in particular, has seen strong early traction. The company launched its prediction markets hub following the 2024 U.S. election cycle, and the product quickly became one of its fastest-growing business lines by revenue. Since launch, users have traded billions of contracts tied to sports, politics and macro events.
Coinbase has taken a similar approach but is earlier in its rollout. Its prediction market offering, powered by Kalshi’s infrastructure, is now available across its user base. While still in its early stages, the product spans categories such as crypto, economics and global events.
Cantor frames the opportunity as a function of scale. Platforms with large retail audiences and existing trading infrastructure have a built-in advantage, allowing them to drive liquidity and participation quickly.
The report also pushes back on the idea that prediction markets are simply gambling. “A common misunderstanding about prediction markets is that they are gambling platforms in disguise,” it said. Instead, users “trade against other participants by buying contracts they believe are ‘underpriced’ and selling ‘overpriced’ contracts,” similar to equities markets.
That structure means platforms earn fees from activity, not losses. Prices update in real time as new information enters the market, creating what the report describes as “continuously updated forecasts” driven by financial incentives.
Beyond retail use, Cantor sees longer-term applications in hedging and forecasting. “Prediction markets will emerge as a versatile tool for institutional investors,” the report said, pointing to potential use in risk management and macro hedging.
Still, regulation remains the key uncertainty. The report describes the current environment as “messy,” with federal and state authorities split on whether prediction markets fall under derivatives law or gambling rules.
Cantor’s bottom line is that prediction markets are unlikely to fade. As the regulatory picture becomes clearer, firms with large user bases and strong distribution, such as Robinhood and Coinbase, could be in the best position to capitalize.
Benjamin Cowen has spent years saying things people don’t want to hear. No hype, paid promotions, or promises of the next 100x altcoin. In a space where opinions are routinely bought and sold, he has built one of crypto’s most trusted voices on a simple, uncomfortable truth:
“It’s hard to find people in this space whose opinions aren’t paid for. A lot of times, their opinions are actually paid for.”
What makes that statement land differently coming from Cowen is where he came from — and what he carried with him on the way.
The Lab That Built Benjamin Cowen
Before hundreds of thousands of subscribers knew his name, Benjamin Cowen was deep inside a university laboratory, studying radiation damage through molecular dynamics and transmission electron microscopy.
From 2013 to 2018, his world was defined by peer-reviewed papers, strict advisers, and the kind of intellectual rigour that doesn’t tolerate shortcuts. By the time he defended his dissertation, he had around ten to eleven published papers to his name.
That foundation, he says, is everything.
“I don’t really think I had that strong of a work ethic before grad school. But then I went to grad school and I had to work really, really hard. If you’re running an experiment, it doesn’t care if you’ve already worked forty hours that week. You still got to go in and deal with it.”
Graduate school changed him. The lab doesn’t close because you’ve already put in forty hours. You show up anyway. That lesson never left.
Culture Shock: From Academia to the Crypto
When Cowen started his YouTube channel, IntoTheCryptoverse, the transition from academia to crypto felt natural in one sense — and deeply jarring in another. The work ethic translated perfectly. The culture did not.
“In my world, you don’t talk to people like that. In academia, everyone’s really respectful and professional. People aren’t tweeting back at each other at 3:00 a.m. with really mean insults.”
For a while, it got to him. A single negative comment could overshadow ten positive ones and linger for the rest of the day. He kept showing up anyway. Five, six, sometimes eight or nine videos a week. Applying the same publishing discipline learned in grad school to a medium moving at an entirely different speed.
The breakthrough came gradually. He realised that in crypto, you’re either a bull or a bear. There is no neutral ground that pleases everyone.
“It really doesn’t matter what I say — there will be a certain amount of people that just don’t like what I say regardless.”
Once he accepted that, the comments lost their power. Today, two to three years into that mindset shift, Benjamin Cowen barely dwells on criticism at all.
One Ethics Stayed Constant
Through it all, what kept him grounded wasn’t the channel, the analysis, or the portfolio. It was something far simpler.
“The biggest form of wealth is family, in my opinion. I would give up every Bitcoin I’ve ever owned for my family.”
In a space that constantly tempts people to define their worth by their holdings, that kind of clarity is rarer than it sounds. It also explains something deeper about why his audience keeps coming back — not for price predictions, but for perspective from someone who has never confused the market with what actually matters in life.
Benjamin Cowen didn’t stumble into crypto in search of a get-rich-quick story. He arrived with a scientist’s mind, an academic’s discipline, and the integrity to say what the data shows, even when nobody wants to hear it.
In an industry that rewards hype, that turned out to be his greatest edge.
The post From NASA to Crypto: The Unlikely Journey of Benjamin Cowen appeared first on BeInCrypto.
TLDR
- HYPE climbed above $45 for the first time in five months after gaining more than 20% in one week.
- Oil perpetual contracts ranked among the most traded assets on Hyperliquid during the price rally.
- Crude Oil generated over $840 million in 24-hour volume and became the third most traded market.
- Brent Crude Oil recorded more than $360 million in daily volume and ranked fifth on the exchange.
- HIP-3 daily trading volume reached about $5.4 billion in late March, led by commodity contracts.
HYPE advanced to nearly $45 early Tuesday, marking its highest level in five months. The token gained over 20% during the past week as trading volumes expanded. Oil-linked perpetual contracts drove much of the activity on Hyperliquid.
The token later eased to about $43.4 at press time. However, it held most of its weekly gains as traders stayed active. The recovery followed renewed focus on commodity markets listed on the exchange.
HYPE Price Rally Aligns with Commodity Trading Surge
HYPE climbed sharply as traders increased activity across builder-deployed markets on Hyperliquid. The token reached nearly $45 before trimming gains later in the session. It still traded firmly above late January levels.
The weekly advance exceeded 20%, reflecting stronger participation on the platform. Oil contracts ranked among the most traded assets during the rally. This trading momentum coincided with higher open interest across new perpetual listings.
Hyperliquid operates a permissionless listing structure under its HIP-3 framework. Outside developers can launch perpetual markets directly on the exchange. The protocol describes HIP-3 as a move toward decentralized perp listings.
This structure expanded the range of available markets beyond digital assets. Commodity and equity-linked contracts gained traction in recent weeks. As a result, overall trading activity shifted toward these instruments.
Market data showed builder-deployed markets topping $1.2 billion in open interest during March. Oil and equity futures contributed heavily to that figure. These contracts became central to daily trading flows on the platform.
Crude Oil emerged as one of the busiest contracts on Hyperliquid. The contract generated over $840 million in 24-hour volume. It ranked as the third most traded market on the exchange.
Brent Crude Oil also attracted strong participation from traders. The contract recorded more than $360 million in 24-hour volume. It ranked fifth among all listed markets.
Oil Frenzy Under HIP-3 Lifts HYPE Visibility
Trading activity accelerated during volatility tied to the US-Iran conflict. Traders used perpetual markets to react before traditional exchanges reopened. This dynamic increased volume across oil-linked contracts.
A March report from The Wall Street Journal detailed rapid volume growth. Cumulative oil futures volume jumped from $339 million to $7.3 billion within days. Traders favored nonstop markets during heightened geopolitical tension.
This surge extended beyond oil alone and covered other commodities. HIP-3 daily volume reached about $5.4 billion in late March. Silver, WTI, Brent, and gold contracts led that activity.
TLDR
- Kraken confirmed that it confidentially filed for an initial public offering, according to co-CEO Arjun Sethi.
- The company secured a $13.3 billion valuation in April, down from its $20 billion peak in late 2025.
- Arjun Sethi said Kraken plans to offer institutional-grade trading tools to retail users.
- Kraken obtained a master account with the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City for direct dollar settlement access.
- Deutsche Börse agreed to invest $200 million for a 1.5% fully diluted stake in Payward Inc.
- Kraken disclosed insider-related security incidents that affected about 2,000 accounts without compromising client funds.
Kraken confirmed it confidentially filed for an initial public offering, according to co-CEO Arjun Sethi. He disclosed the move on Tuesday at the Semafor World Economy summit in Washington, D.C. The filing follows a prior pause in listing plans as its valuation fell to $13.3 billion.
Kraken Advances IPO Plan as Valuation Adjusts
Kraken confirmed it submitted a confidential IPO filing, and Arjun Sethi announced the update during a public event. He spoke at the Semafor World Economy conference in Washington, D.C., and addressed earlier reports. The company had paused earlier listing plans after crypto markets weakened and trading volumes dropped.
The San Francisco-based exchange secured a $13.3 billion valuation in an April funding round. That figure marked a decline from its $20 billion peak recorded in late 2025. The round included backing from Citadel Securities and reflected changing investor sentiment.
Sethi said Kraken wants to expand institutional-grade trading tools to retail clients. He compared the company’s goals to services offered by Jane Street and JPMorgan Chase. He stated, “We aim to bring institutional-grade tools to retail users,” while outlining product ambitions.
Kraken recently obtained a master account with the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The account grants direct access to U.S. payment systems, including Fedwire. This access allows dollar settlements without intermediary banks, though it excludes interest on reserves and lending facilities.
Deutsche Börse Investment and Insider Security Incidents
Deutsche Börse disclosed a $200 million investment in Kraken through a secondary share purchase. The transaction grants a 1.5% fully diluted stake in Payward Inc, pending regulatory approval. The companies expect the deal to close in Q2 2026.
The investment expands a partnership announced in December 2025 between Kraken and Deutsche Börse. The collaboration targets regulated crypto trading, derivatives, tokenized assets, and institutional liquidity services. Both firms said the agreement seeks to connect traditional financial infrastructure with digital asset markets.
Kraken also reported two insider-related security incidents involving support staff. The employees accessed limited client data through internal systems without authorization. About 2,000 accounts, representing 0.02%, were affected, and no client funds or trading systems were compromised.
A criminal group later attempted extortion, claiming it possessed internal videos linked to the incidents. Kraken refused to pay and revoked access for the responsible individuals. The company notified affected users and cooperated with law enforcement while strengthening internal controls.
Galaxy Digital reported a separate cybersecurity incident during the same week. The firm disclosed unauthorized access to a development environment. It stated that no client data or funds were impacted by that breach.
Crypto World
Popular DeFi platform CoW Swap warns users to stay away from its site after security breach
CoW Swap, a decentralized trading interface, said Tuesday it temporarily halted its services after detecting a domain name system (DNS) hijacking incident affecting its website, underscoring ongoing security risks at the front-end layer of DeFi platforms.
In a post on X, the team said the attack occurred at 14:54 UTC and warned users to avoid interacting with its interface until further notice. While the protocol’s underlying infrastructure, including its backend and APIs, was not directly compromised, both were paused “as a precaution” as the team worked to resolve the issue.
DNS hijacking allows attackers to redirect users from a legitimate domain to a malicious lookalike site, often with the goal of draining crypto wallets or harvesting private data. The attack vector has become a persistent weak point in decentralized finance, where users typically rely on web-based interfaces to access otherwise secure smart contracts.
CoW Swap operates as a decentralized exchange aggregator, sourcing liquidity across venues and using a mechanism known as “Coincidence of Wants” to match trades directly between users or batch them for more efficient execution. Orders are handled by competing “solvers” that optimize trade outcomes, a design intended to reduce slippage and limit exposure to maximal extractable value (MEV).
MEV is a practice on the blockchain where bots reorder transactions to extract profit at users’ expense, making mitigation key to ensuring fair pricing and protecting traders.
The platform is governed by CoW DAO, a decentralized autonomous organization spun out of the Gnosis ecosystem. The project has positioned itself as a user-protective alternative in DeFi trading, emphasizing execution quality and fairer trading outcomes.
“We are now actively working to resolve the situation. Please continue to refrain from using swap dot cow dot fi until we confirm that it is safe to use,” the team wrote on X.
Read more: DEX Aggregator CoW Swap Targets 33% Trading Boost With Collaboration Feature, More Rewards
TLDR
- Tim Draper expects the Bitcoin price to reach $250,000 within the next 18 months.
- He links his forecast to growing global adoption and weakening fiat currencies.
- Draper first attempted to acquire Bitcoin when it traded at $4 through a mining partnership.
- He later lost his Bitcoin holdings during the collapse of Mt. Gox exchange.
- In 2014, he purchased Bitcoin at $632 per coin during a US Marshals auction.
Venture capitalist Tim Draper has renewed his projection that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 within 18 months. He shared the forecast in a recent public statement and linked it to rising adoption trends. He also cited the weakening of fiat currencies as a driver of future demand.
Bitcoin Price Outlook and Long-Term Target
Draper stated that he expects the Bitcoin price to climb to $250,000 within 18 months. He said growing usage will fuel the projected rise. He added that weakening fiat currencies will also boost demand.
He said, “I have reason to believe that Bitcoin will reach $250k in 18 months.” He linked his view to broader use cases across global markets. He maintained that expanding adoption will sustain the rally.
Draper acknowledged that some past forecasts did not meet timelines. However, he said he continues to stand by his current target. He stressed that he bases his outlook on adoption data and currency trends.
He previously predicted that Bitcoin would reach $10,000 within three years. He made that call shortly after buying confiscated coins in 2014. The asset later met that target within the projected period.
Early Bitcoin Mining and Mt. Gox Losses
Draper said he first attempted to acquire Bitcoin when it traded at $4. He partnered with Peter Viscenne to mine the cryptocurrency. They ordered mining chips from hardware maker Butterfly Labs.
However, Draper alleged that Butterfly Labs used the chips to mine for itself. He said the company delayed shipping the hardware. By the time they received the equipment, Bitcoin traded above $30.
Draper later lost his holdings during the collapse of Mt. Gox. The exchange served as the leading Bitcoin trading platform at that time. Despite the failure, the Bitcoin price remained resilient.
He said, “It turned out that Bitcoin was being used for remitting money.” He added that people used it to pay unbanked employees and create new economies. He said these use cases supported price stability.
In 2014, Draper purchased Bitcoin through a US Marshals auction. Authorities had seized the coins from the Silk Road marketplace. He paid $632 per coin during that auction process.
Shortly after the purchase, Draper predicted a $10,000 Bitcoin price within three years. A television host reacted with confusion during the interview. The asset later reached that level within the timeframe.
Draper admitted that later price targets were less accurate. However, he reiterated confidence in his current forecast. He again pointed to adoption growth and fiat currency erosion as key factors.
Japan’s e-commerce giant Rakuten is adding XRP to its Rakuten Pay app, allowing its 44 million users to use Ripple’s cryptocurrency as a payment method with more than 5 million merchant locations across the country.
In an announcement via X on Tuesday, Tatsuya Kohrogi, Ripple’s senior ecosystem growth manager, said Rakuten is also enabling its users to spot trade XRP via the app. He said they will also be able to purchase XRP with Rakuten points and hold it in their Rakuten Wallet.
The move ties XRP into one of Japan’s largest loyalty systems, where more than 3 trillion points—worth roughly $23 billion—are in circulation and can now be converted into XRP, Kohrogi said.
“Starting April 15, Rakuten Wallet will launch XRP as both a listed asset and a payment method, meaning users can buy XRP directly with Rakuten Points and charge their Rakuten Cash with XRP to spend it at over 5 million merchant locations across Japan,” Kohrogi said, calling the development “one of the most significant XRP milestones.”
The Ripple executive also said Rakuten is one of Japan’s most trusted consumer brands. “The fact that XRP is now embedded into its loyalty and payments infrastructure is a powerful signal of where digital asset adoption is heading,” he added.
Rakuten began allowing users to spend bitcoin, ether and bitcoin cash in 2023. In 2021, the Japanese e-commerce giant announced the launch of its own Rakuten Coin, a token it said would be used as part of its points-based loyalty rewards system.
The decentralized exchange aggregator said users should refrain from visiting its website after a frontend exploit.
Decentralized exchange aggregator CoW Swap is calling on users to refrain from using its website after an unknown party hijacked its domain.
In a Tuesday X post, the decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) behind CoW Swap said its website had experienced a “DNS [Domain Name System] hijacking,” leading to a pause of its backend and APIs. The frontend exploit, through the website http://swap.cow.fi, was ongoing at the time of publication.
“We are now actively working to resolve the situation,” said CoW Swap. “Please continue to refrain from using swap dot cow dot fi until we confirm that it is safe to use.”
DNS attacks like the one CoW Swap reported are not uncommon among crypto and blockchain companies where user funds are at risk from phishing attempts. Decentralized exchange Balancer reported a domain attack in 2023, while Curve Finance said it has experienced multiple DNS hijackings.
Related: Firestorm erupts in Aave governance forum over CoW Swap fees
The price of the CoW Protocol’s COW token dropped more than 3% amid news of the domain hijacking, to $0.2159 from $0.2229.
Web3 hacks, driven by phishing, resulted in a half billion dollars in losses in Q1 2026
Blockchain security company Hacken reported on Tuesday that Web3 projects lost $482 million to hacks and scams in the first quarter of 2026. According to Hacken, there were 44 incidents over Q1 2026, most of which were phishing and social engineering attacks.
Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?
Hyperliquid’s native token HYPE (HYPE) re-tested $45 on Tuesday, marking its highest value since October 31, 2025. The rally extends a 108% rally from its yearly low at $21 on Jan. 21.
With HYPE price pushing toward all-time highs, market demand signals remain mixed, as weak spot buying activity threatens to slow the rally’s momentum.
HYPE price trend and onchain data diverge
HYPE currently trades 26% below its all-time high of $59, with relatively thin resistance between the current levels and its peak. The next liquidity zone lies between $52 and $48 and could be reached if momentum sustains. However, the HYPE spot and futures trading data suggest the rally is not entirely conviction-driven.
The spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) has gradually declined to -$41.48 million, even as prices have risen. This divergence suggests the rally is being supported more by passive demand without aggressive spot buying.
Meanwhile, the futures CVD has stayed mostly flat near -$748 million over the past month, after recovering from lows near -$900 million.
The open interest (OI) has risen steadily to $1.38 billion, near local highs and signaling an increased market participation.
However, rising OI alongside weak futures CVD suggests traders may be in positions without strong conviction in the bullish price trend.
As a result, the market may become more vulnerable to sharp, liquidation-driven moves once the bullish trend fades.
Related: Tether launches self-custodial wallet with cloud backup option
BitMEX founder say HYPE may gain 200% by August
In March, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said HYPE could reach $150 if Hyperliquid expands its dominance in the futures market and its product suite.
Hayes’ thesis centers on the continued market-share gains from centralized exchanges and the rising protocol revenue.
Hyperliquid’s 30-day annualized revenue run rate stood at $843 million in March, and it would need to reach $1.4 billion by August. That implies a 66% increase within five months.
Hyperliquid allocates up to 97% of its revenue to buying HYPE from the open market, creating a direct link between trading activity and token demand.
HIP-3, a protocol upgrade enabling trading of non-crypto assets like commodities, contributes close to 10% of revenue and could drive further expansion, especially as assets like gold and oil gain traction on the platform.
RWA trading on Hyperliquid continues to reach new ATHs week after week, surpassing $2.3B in open interest pic.twitter.com/R9uDCAx3fo
— Hyperliquid (@HyperliquidX) April 6, 2026
The real-world asset (RWA) trading activity on Hyperliquid has also accelerated sharply, with open interest rising to $2.3 billion on April 6. This marks an increase of over 190% from March levels and nearly 800% from early-year lows.
This growth pace for the protocol and its market-share gains could play a key role in any extended price move for the altcoin.
Related: XRP consolidation may transform into explosive rally if $1.40 is topped: Data
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content.
Bitcoin started the day with a promising chance for a breakout, but the rally fizzled out at a familiar brick wall that has kept a lid on prices for more than two months.
After briefly topping $76,000 — a key resistance level — the largest crypto reversed course, slipping below $74,000 later in the session. It still held onto a 1.3% gain over the past 24 hours, recently changing hands near $74,300.
Ether (ETH) followed a similar path, pulling back from above $2,400, but still outperformed, advancing 2.5% daily.
Traditional markets saw no such reversal, with the Nasdaq closing at its session high, up 2%. The S&P 500 rose 1.2% and now stands within a handful of points of hitting a new record high — a sharp contrast to bitcoin, which remains about 40% below its record of $126,000.
Still, the conditions are ripe for a squeeze higher in crypto even as Tuesday’s breakout didn’t hold.
According to Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, funding rates on Binance’s bitcoin perpetuals have remained negative for 11 consecutive periods despite the recent rally, signaling traders are still leaning bearish even as prices push higher. At the same time, open interest has been rising, suggesting new short positions are being added rather than closed, he said.
That combination has historically set the stage for sharp upside moves, he said.
The 30-day average funding rate has now been negative for 46 straight days, Lunde added, matching the extended bearish positioning seen during past market stress periods, such as after the FTX crash in late 2022 and the mid-2021 bear market when China banned bitcoin mining.
“Comparable risk-off regimes have historically been attractive entry points for BTC,” Lunde said, as crowded short trades were forced to unwind.
U.S. equities closed sharply higher on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite climbing 1.96% and locking in gains for 10 consecutive trading days, underscoring renewed risk appetite in big‑cap technology.
Summary
- Nasdaq jumps nearly 2% to log 10 straight days of gains.
- Dow and S&P 500 also close higher, powered by mega‑cap tech.
- Chinese tech stocks rally, with iQIYI and JD.com surging in U.S. trading.
The S&P 500 added 1.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.66%, according to market data from Gate.
Chipmaker Nvidia and e‑commerce giant Amazon each advanced 3.8%, extending a powerful rebound in U.S. growth stocks that have led major indices back toward record territory. Electric‑vehicle maker Tesla also gained more than 3%, adding further momentum to the tech‑heavy Nasdaq’s winning streak.
The performance of these mega‑cap names continues to exert an outsized influence on U.S. benchmarks, with investors rotating back into longer‑duration growth assets as earnings optimism builds. Their simultaneous surge helped push the Nasdaq to its 10‑day run, a relatively rare stretch that points to strong short‑term bullish sentiment in the sector.
The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, which tracks Chinese companies listed on U.S. exchanges, closed up 2.3% on the day. Within the basket, streaming platform iQIYI jumped 11%, while e‑commerce heavyweight JD.com soared nearly 8%, signaling renewed investor interest in U.S.‑traded Chinese tech.
The sharp move in Chinese ADRs highlights how global growth and tech narratives are increasingly intertwined across U.S. and Asian markets. As Wall Street’s rally broadens beyond U.S. mega‑caps, moves in indices such as the Golden Dragon China suggest investors are again willing to add exposure to higher‑beta internet and platform plays listed in New York.
From NASA to Crypto: The Unlikely Journey of Benjamin Cowen
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