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Wall Street broker Bernstein sees prediction market volumes hitting $1 trillion by 2030 with HOOD, COIN as key players

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High Roller stock soars as much as 130% on Crypto.com prediction market agreement

Wall Street broker Bernstein expects prediction market volumes to reach roughly $1 trillion by 2030, as the sector evolves from niche wagering into broad-based “information markets” spanning sports, crypto, politics and the economy.

Volumes hit $51 billion last year and are on pace to reach about $240 billion in 2026, implying roughly 80% compound annual growth through the end of the decade, the report said. Activity has already accelerated in 2026, with Polymarket and Kalshi recording combined year-to-date volumes of $60 billion.

“Increasing regulatory clarity at the federal level is expanding the addressable market, while blockchain-based tokenization and integration with crypto markets is enabling global liquidity, long-tail event creation and participation from institutions,” wrote analysts led by Gautam Chhugani.

Prediction markets have surged from a niche corner of crypto and academic experimentation into a fast-growing segment of global trading activity in just a few years.

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Volumes have spiked alongside major news cycles, most notably the 2024 U.S. election, while platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have expanded access beyond politics into sports, crypto and macroeconomic events.

The combination of clearer U.S. regulatory footing, improved user experience and the integration of blockchain-based liquidity has accelerated adoption, pushing the sector toward mainstream relevance

The report attributed the growth to improving federal regulatory clarity, which expands access beyond fragmented state-level gaming rules, alongside blockchain-based infrastructure that enables global liquidity and rapid creation of new event contracts.

Sports currently accounts for about 62% of volumes, benefiting from lower effective take rates versus traditional online sportsbooks. But the analysts expect that share to fall to roughly 31% by 2030, as crypto-linked contracts and macro, political and economic events gain traction. Institutional participation is also expected to grow, particularly for hedging event-driven risks.

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$10.8 billion in revenue

Bernstein analysts estimate industry revenues could expand from roughly $400 million in 2025 to $2.5 billion in 2026, reaching about $10.8 billion by 2030 at current take rates. Even with significant fee compression, they see potential for a multi-billion-dollar revenue pool.

Distribution is emerging as a key competitive moat. The report pointed to Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN) as early leaders, leveraging their combined tens of millions of users.

Robinhood has already built a $350 million annualized revenue run rate from prediction markets and is moving toward owning exchange infrastructure, while Coinbase entered via Kalshi with nationwide access to more than 1,000 contracts, the report added.

The broker has an outperform rating on both Coinbase and Robinhood.

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Read more: Why Cantor Fitzgerald thinks Robinhood and Coinbase are the best ways to play the prediction market boom

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Starknet v0.14.2 Brings Native Privacy Infrastructure to Mainnet

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

    • Starknet v0.14.2 introduces SNIP-36, enabling native in-protocol STARK proof verification on mainnet.
    • STRK20 allows any ERC-20 token on Starknet to operate with encrypted balances and shielded transfers.
    • strkBTC lets bitcoin holders access DeFi on Starknet without exposing their full wallet transaction history.
    • SNIP-37 rebalances network economics by raising storage costs while lowering base L2 gas prices for users.

Starknet v0.14.2 is now live on mainnet, introducing native privacy infrastructure to the network. The upgrade adds in-protocol proof verification, enabling confidential transactions at the protocol level.

It also paves the way for STRK20 and strkBTC, two privacy-focused asset frameworks. Together, these changes position Starknet as a privacy-preserving rollup rather than a standard high-performance chain.

In-Protocol Proof Verification Changes How Starknet Handles Privacy

At the core of v0.14.2 is SNIP-36, which brings native proof verification to the protocol. Previously, verifying a STARK proof on Starknet required a smart contract, which was not practical.

STARK proofs are large, often containing tens of thousands of field elements. That size made them incompatible with the network’s maximum transaction limits.

Developers had no clean path forward under the old system. Splitting proofs across multiple transactions was slow, complex, and expensive.

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The official release notes described the previous approach as “prohibitively slow, complex, and expensive.” With v0.14.2, transactions now reference off-chain execution proofs directly through new proof and proof_facts fields in the Invoke V3 transaction structure.

Starknet’s consensus layer handles verification natively under this new model. Users can now prove fund ownership or transfer rights without exposing their balance.

The protocol states that “privacy becomes as seamless as a standard transfer” with this native support in place. Transaction history also remains shielded from public view on the network.

This change removes the biggest barrier to practical privacy on Starknet. Without native support, any privacy solution would have been too slow and costly to deploy at scale.

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STRK20 and strkBTC Are the First to Use the New Framework

STRK20 is a new framework that allows any ERC-20 token on Starknet to operate privately. Thanks to v0.14.2’s ability to verify S-two proofs, tokens can now support encrypted balances.

Per the release announcement, users can now “swap, stake, and send any ERC-20 token while keeping your financial footprint shielded.” This applies from day one of the framework’s availability.

strkBTC builds on this same infrastructure for bitcoin holders specifically. The upgrade allows BTC to be used in DeFi applications without exposing a user’s full bitcoin wallet history.

According to Starknet, the result gives bitcoin holders “hard money that is both private and productive.” This opens BTC participation across the broader BTCFi ecosystem on Starknet.

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Both frameworks operate with a compliance layer in place. A third-party audit firm will hold a viewing key. Subject to valid legal or regulatory requests, that firm may share individual transaction data with relevant authorities.

Beyond privacy, v0.14.2 also addresses network economics through SNIP-37. The update raises storage costs while reducing base L2 gas prices.

SNIP-13 upgrades StarkGate token contracts to version 3.0.0, aligning ERC-20 events with industry standards and preparing for the decentralized validation phase outlined in SNIP-33.

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The BTC price is less volatile than South Korea’s Kospi stock index right now

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The BTC price is less volatile than South Korea's Kospi stock index right now

Bitcoin has a well-earned reputation as a volatile asset that has historically doubled or halved in a matter of months. That may be changing.

Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility, currently 42%, has remained below 50% this month, according to TradingView data. Compare that with South Korea’s benchmark Kospi stock index, whose market capitalization is about twice the largest cryptocurrency’s, which hit 74% last week and is still around 51%. Another more volatile equity market is Pakistan, whose KSE 100 index is also around 51%.

Bitcoin’s volatility — a measure of how wildly prices have swung — has steadily declined in recent years, particularly since the introduction of spot ETFs in the U.S. in January 2024. These investment vehicles have increased institutional participation, bringing in more risk-managed capital flows that have helped dampen price swings.

The relative stability underscores its appeal as a geopolitical hedge, holding its value when macro forces like wars wreak havoc on traditional assets. BTC has historically outperformed gold, the S&P 500 and other traditional assets during wars, as River, a bitcoin-only financial institution, pointed out early this month.

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Still, most major regional markets and their global counterparts exhibited less volatility than BTC in the period. Which raises the question: Why makes South Korea, the world’s 14th-largest economy, different?

Korean issues

The higher volatility in Korean stocks reflects, to a great extent, the gyrations in the cost of fossil fuel, which doesn’t really apply to bitcoin.

The Kospi fell from 6,340 points in late February to 5,000 by the end of March, before rebounding to record highs above 6,380 points.

The initial selloff occurred in the run-up to the war between Iran and the U.S.-Israeli coalition, which started Feb. 28, eventually leading to a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil supply route. This disruption and the resulting spike in oil prices hurt South Korea because the country imports nearly all its fossil fuels, including oil and natural gas from the Middle East.

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Later, the index found its footing as the conflict eased and the two sides negotiated a temporary ceasefire, which is set to expire on Wednesday. Pakistan’s stock market saw similar swings, with its economy equally, if not more, exposed to energy market disruptions.

Throughout this time, bitcoin held relatively steady, trading mostly between $65,000 and $75,000, supported by renewed inflows into the U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

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Strategy (MSTR) overtakes BlackRock’s IBIT after aggressive bear market BTC buying

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Strategy (MSTR) overtakes BlackRock's IBIT after aggressive bear market BTC buying

Strategy (MSTR), now holds more bitcoin than BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) for the first time since Q2 2024.

The world’s largest publicly traded BTC holder recently announced its third-largest bitcoin purchase on record, acquiring 34,164 BTC and bringing its total holdings to 815,061 BTC.

IBIT currently holds 802,824 BTC, leaving Strategy ahead by more than 12,000 BTC. While the gap is not anything meaningful in relative terms, it is symbolically important given IBIT’s rapid growth since launch. IBIT became the fastest ETF in history to reach $70 billion in assets, while IBIT ranks among BlackRock’s top revenue drivers.

Strategy held 189,150 BTC at the start of Q1 2024. IBIT surpassed it by early Q2 with roughly 273,000 BTC, compared with Strategy’s 214,400 BTC, a lead which it consistently maintained until now.

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However, the two vehicles are fundamentally different. Strategy is an operating company that uses financial engineering, including at-the-market (ATM) equity issuance, convertible debt, and perpetual preferred securities, to accumulate bitcoin in a leveraged manner. IBIT, by contrast, is a spot ETF designed to passively track bitcoin’s price, offering investors straightforward exposure without leverage or corporate risk.

IBIT has gained around 55% since listing in January 2024, while Strategy has risen roughly 250%, driven by its leveraged structure.

Notably, Strategy accelerated accumulation during the recent market downturn, as bitcoin fell over 50% from its October all-time high, while adding nearly 80,000 BTC in 2026.

The perpetual preferred equity STRC has been a key differentiator for Strategy, providing a scalable source of capital that has funded a significant portion of its recent bitcoin accumulation.

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Meanwhile, IBIT’s holdings remained relatively stable, with only a modest decline in assets under management.

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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Blackrock Big Bitcoin Bet

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BlackRock just placed its biggest weekly prediction bet on Bitcoin as its trading at above the $74,000 price support.

BlackRock just placed its biggest weekly prediction bet on Bitcoin as it is trading at above the $74,000 price support. BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF, IBIT, absorbed $871 million in net inflows last week, leading every crypto ETF on the board.

BlackRock just placed its biggest weekly prediction bet on Bitcoin as its trading at above the $74,000 price support.
ETFs Flows, Farside

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs collectively booked $1.9 billion in net inflows across the same five-day stretch, the strongest weekly haul since early February. The marquee single-session was April 17, when total ETF flows hit $663.89 million, with IBIT alone pulling in $283.96 million and Fidelity’s FBTC adding another $163 million.

Iran tensions dragged BTC briefly to $63,000 2 months ago before Saturday’s bid briefly reclaimed $78,000, with institutional buyers treating every dip as an entry.

Discover: The best pre-launch token sales

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Larry Fink’s $500,000 Target This Year?

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Bitcoin’s technical setup looks constructive after the consolidation. Price is holding above $74,000, up 10% in a month, with bullish consolidation building since the peak. Key resistance sits at the $78,000, and a confirmed close above that can open the door to the $80,000 breakout level.

BlackRock just placed its biggest weekly prediction bet on Bitcoin as its trading at above the $74,000 price support.
BTC USD, TradingView

The Liquidity Oscillator is showing positive Rate-of-Change signals, consistent with the global M2 money supply reversal that has historically correlated with BTC rallies.

For Bitcoin price itself, if ETF inflows sustain above $500M weekly, BTC could clear $78,000 and target $80,000, then maybe $83,000 on M2 tailwinds. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has upgraded his 2026 target to $200,000+, citing ETF flows, MicroStrategy accumulation, and Trump’s pro-crypto executive order unlocking Wall Street participation.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink reiterated a $500,000–$700,000 long-term price target in a recent Bloomberg interview, citing sovereign wealth funds weighing 2%–5% BTC portfolio allocations as a hedge against currency debasement. It’s a structural demand that doesn’t reverse on a single FOMC meeting or a Strait of Hormuz headline.

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Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with

Bitcoin Hyper to Follow Bitcoin Path with Bigger Upside

Spot BTC is undeniably bullish right now, but the asymmetric upside that early Bitcoin investors enjoyed simply isn’t available anymore. Traders hunting for early-cycle leverage within the Bitcoin ecosystem are rotating attention to infrastructure plays building on top of BTC itself.

Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is positioning as the first-ever Bitcoin Layer 2 with Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) integration, delivering sub-second finality and low-cost smart contract execution while preserving Bitcoin’s base-layer security.

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The pitch is direct: solve Bitcoin’s core limitations (slow transactions, high fees, no programmability) without abandoning its trust model. The presale has raised $32 million at a current price of $0.0136789, with 36% staking available for early participants.

Features include a Decentralized Canonical Bridge for BTC transfers and high-speed transaction execution that the team claims outperforms Solana itself on latency, and the presale has drawn attention alongside the broader Bitcoin ETF inflow narrative.

Research Bitcoin Hyper here.

The post Bitcoin Price Prediction: Blackrock Big Bitcoin Bet appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Bitcoin Price May Go Under $70K Despite Strategy’s Latest Big BTC Buy

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Bitcoin Price May Go Under $70K Despite Strategy’s Latest Big BTC Buy

Bitcoin (BTC) rose 2.66% to around $75,800 on Monday after Strategy disclosed a $2.54 billion purchase, the company’s third biggest ever, and equivalent to about 2.5 months of new BTC supply.

However, several indicators suggest the rally may fizzle out.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Key takeaways:

  • Poor macro conditions can spark BTC price pullback if Strategy’s buying slows.

  • Bitcoin’s technical setup hints at a potential dip toward $67,000–$69,000.

Strategy may halt BTC purchases this week

Strategy funded most of its latest 34,164 BTC purchase through its preferred stock, Stretch (STRC), which generated over $2.17 billion through at-the-market share sales between April 13 and April 19.

Source: Strategy’s SEC Filings

That accounted for roughly 86% of the total amount spent, while sales of its Class A common stock, MSTR, added another $366 million.

STRC lets Strategy raise cash for Bitcoin when it trades at or above $100. Stronger prices mean easier fundraising and more BTC buying. In 2026, STRC enabled the purchases of 77,000 BTC, ten times more than all the ETFs combined, per River data.

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Bitcoin Analysis, Markets, Tech Analysis, Market Analysis, MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor
Bitcoin ownership YTD change. Source: River

But STRC has been trading below its $100 par value since April 15, which may limit Strategy’s ability to keep raising cash to purchase more Bitcoin this week.

STRC weekly estimates. Source: STRC.LIVE

In past episodes, pauses in Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases have coincided with BTC price slumps.

For instance, on average, BTC’s price has dipped by roughly 30% when STRC traded below its $100 par value.

BTC/USD vs. STRC daily performance chart. Source: TradingView

A 30% dip will take Bitcoin’s price to $53,000 when measured from current levels.

Source: X

The halt appears alongside weakening risk sentiment, with US stock indexes falling amid doubts over the US–Iran peace deal.

Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones daily performance charts. Source: TradingView

US President Donald Trump said it was “highly unlikely” he would extend the two-week truce if no agreement is reached before it expires on Wednesday.

Any signs of an extended Middle East conflict may weigh on BTC’s prices.

BTC flag pullback hints at $67,000–$69,000

Bitcoin’s current chart structure shows classic flag consolidation, with price now drifting toward the pattern’s lower boundary. This setup raises the risk of a pullback toward the $67,000–$69,000 region in April, if support gives way.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

At the same time, downside may remain limited as the 20-day (green) and 50-day (red) EMAs continue to act as dynamic support levels. Holding above these averages would signal underlying demand, increasing the chances of a rebound.

Related: Adam Back says current demand is ‘almost’ enough to send Bitcoin to $1M

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If that happens, BTC could attempt a breakout above the flag’s upper trend line, effectively invalidating the bearish setup.

Such a move would open the door for a recovery toward the 200-day EMA (blue), currently near $82,750.

As Cointelegraph reported, breaking the resistance near $78,000 is now a top priority for the bulls.