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Bitcoin (BTC) to face near-term pressure as liquidity tightens, according to Hilbert Group CIO

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Kraken's surprise Fed win may harken onslaught of crypto firms with narrow Fed access

Global liquidity is set to deteriorate sharply, according to Russell Thompson, chief investment officer at crypto asset manager Hilbert Group (HILB), who said even a quick geopolitical resolution in Iran is unlikely to sustain a rally in risk assets without policy support.

Liquidity conditions have stabilized in parts of the financial sector following the rollout of the reserve maturity program (RMP), Thompson said, but a broader tightening of 20%–25% is approaching, a significant drag that could leave bitcoin struggling in the near term.

“Even with a resolution quickly in Iran, I do not believe that risk assets will rally for any sustainable time without outside help,” Thompson said in the report published last week.

Thompson said he expects U.S. policymakers to respond. He pointed to likely measures including reform of the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR), a sizable drawdown of the Treasury General Account (TGA) without offsetting Federal Reserve bill issuance, and a series of rate cuts under a potential new Fed chair.

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The SLR is a banking regulation that sets how much capital large banks must hold against their total leverage. The TGA is the U.S. Treasury’s main cash account at the Federal Reserve.

When the Treasury draws down the TGA (spends money from it), liquidity is effectively injected into the financial system; when it builds the TGA, liquidity is drained.

Bitcoin’s performance over the past six months has been marked by sharp volatility, a clear shift from late-2025 exuberance to a more fragile, macro-driven market.

After hitting an all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025, bitcoin entered a sustained drawdown through the end of the year and into early 2026. By February, prices had fallen to roughly $63,000, a decline of about 50% from the peak, amid a broader crypto market sell-off and tightening financial conditions. This period was characterized by weaker demand, exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows and a more risk-off macro backdrop, with BTC underperforming equities in some stretches.

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Bitcoin is currently trading around $75,600, leaving it significantly off its peak but no longer in freefall. The last six months, in short, have seen a full cycle: from peak euphoria, to a deep correction, to a tentative stabilization phase, with macro liquidity, policy expectations and investor positioning now the dominant drivers.

Advances in crypto regulation could also provide support. Thompson said he anticipates legal clarity on key measures before the summer recess and a faster-than-expected expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet as disinflationary pressures build.

Higher oil prices, he argued, could ultimately weigh on growth, while a softening labor market and emerging stress in private credit may add to the disinflationary backdrop.

Markets remain overly focused on the Federal Reserve as the primary source of liquidity, Thompson said, but the U.S. Treasury has significant capacity to inject funds into both the real economy and financial markets. With Treasury leadership experienced in deploying such tools, he expects a more proactive approach.

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The result: short-term pressure on bitcoin, but improving conditions over the medium term.

Thompson said he expects bitcoin to be “significantly higher” by year-end as liquidity dynamics evolve. Even in a more protracted scenario, he sees liquidity bottoming around 2027, a timeline that could coincide with fresh all-time highs.

Read more: U.S. crypto adoption is rebounding, bitcoin still dominates, Deutsche Bank says

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Ripple Makes XRP Ledger Quantum-Ready

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Crypto Breaking News

Early Threats Recovery Plan

The first phase focuses on recovery actions in case of the failure of classical cryptography. Engineers will introduce a comprehensive migration trajectory, which will require users to transfer funds to quantum-secure accounts. Moreover, the strategy will guarantee that user assets are not exposed in case of a transition event caused by compromised keys. Ripple engineers are exploring zero-knowledge proof systems that prove ownership of existing accounts without disclosing any private keys. As a result, the network will be able to promote safe migrations and safeguard sensitive information. The XRP Ledger already has building blocks that facilitate this approach such as seed-based key generation.

The second step is concerned with testing the algorithms suggested by the National Institute of Standards and Technology. In addition to in-house testing, Ripple has collaborated with Project Eleven to build hybrid signing systems that fuse existing and post-quantum techniques. The next stage will involve developers starting to incorporate new signature systems with the existing elliptic curve techniques. Additionally, developer networks will begin to be tested to enable applications to be modified. Ripple will also analyse encryption tools that uphold privacy and compliance to tokenized assets.

The final stage involves a full transition toward post-quantum cryptography within the XRP Ledger ecosystem. Ripple therefore intends to implement protocol changes that will facilitate the adoption of new signature systems on a large scale. This move will transition the network from testing into full deployment in line with the stated timeline. The XRP Ledger already includes features to enable long-term resilience against quantum risks. Notably, key rotation enables users to refresh private keys without changing accounts, and deterministic generation of keys enables security upgrades to be controlled. These functionalities will provide a foundation for future upgrades as quantum technology advances.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Ripple CTO Warns RLUSD Faces DeFi Bridge Security Gaps

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Crypto Breaking News

David Schwartz raised fresh concerns about integrating decentralized finance bridges for Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin. He focused on security risks after reviewing several cross-chain systems. Besides that, his findings showed that most protocols had strong technical foundations but still faced deployment weaknesses.

However, he stressed that operational decisions often weaken security layers. Many teams prioritize ease of use and faster expansion across networks. Consequently, critical safeguards get overlooked, which increases exposure to exploits across connected chains.

Convenience Trade-Offs Create Vulnerabilities

Schwartz explained that several bridge systems discourage full use of key security features. He noted that developers avoid complex safeguards due to cost and operational challenges. Moreover, this approach creates gaps that attackers can exploit during high-value transactions.

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Additionally, he linked this pattern to recent exploit cases in the DeFi sector. He pointed out that convenience-driven decisions reduce resilience against advanced attacks. Hence, systems that appear secure in design may fail under real-world pressure.

KelpDAO Exploit Reflects Broader Risks

The recent attack on KelpDAO involved the loss of around $292 million tied to rsETH tokens. Attackers exploited cross-chain messaging linked to LayerZero infrastructure. Significantly, the exploit relied on manipulating transaction validation processes.

On-chain data showed that about 116,500 rsETH tokens moved to attacker-controlled wallets. Moreover, the attacker used these assets as collateral on Aave V3 to borrow ETH and WETH. Consequently, the funds moved through Tornado Cash to obscure transaction trails.

Cross-Chain Weaknesses Raise RLUSD Concerns

Schwartz noted similarities between the exploit and potential risks for RLUSD integration. He suggested that ignoring LayerZero’s advanced security features may have contributed to the breach. Additionally, he described the attack as more complex than initially expected.

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Moreover, he emphasized that cross-chain infrastructure introduces multiple points of failure. Each connection between networks increases risk exposure. Hence, stablecoin systems relying on such bridges must prioritize strict validation mechanisms.

Broader Ecosystem Flags Additional Risks

Concerns also extend to wrapped assets such as wXRP on other networks. An XRPL validator highlighted counterparty risks tied to issued tokens across chains. Besides that, ecosystem participants continue to evaluate governance changes for lending protocols.

However, some developers argue that proposed updates may not deliver strong utility for XRP holders. Meanwhile, discussions continue around collateral use cases and protocol efficiency.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Tether Takes 8.2% Stake in Antalpha, Expanding Mining Financing Ties

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Crypto Breaking News

Tether has disclosed an 8.2% stake in Antalpha, acquiring about 1.95 million Antalpha shares through related entities. The position, disclosed in a Schedule 13D filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, places the stablecoin issuer among Antalpha’s largest shareholders following the mining-focused lender’s May 2025 initial public offering. Giancarlo Devasini, Tether’s chairman, shares voting and dispositive power over the stake, according to the filing. The document also notes that Tether and its affiliates may adjust their holdings over time in response to market conditions and other factors.

Antalpha operates in the Bitcoin-backed lending and equipment-financing space, catering to mining operators. The company reported a loan portfolio of about $1.6 billion as of the end of 2024 and maintains close ties to the Bitmain ecosystem, a major supplier of mining hardware.

Antalpha raised roughly $49.3 million in its IPO, at $12.80 per share. Tether had previously signaled a potential interest in purchasing up to $25 million worth of shares.

In its latest annual figures, Antalpha posted 2025 revenue of $79.7 million, up 68% year over year, with net income rising to $18.5 million—more than triple the previous year’s figure. On the day of the disclosure, Antalpha’s stock climbed about 7.2% to around $9.97 in early trading, according to Google Finance data.

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Source: Cointelegraph, based on the Schedule 13D filing and Antalpha’s financial disclosures.

Key takeaways

  • Tether now holds roughly 1.95 million Antalpha shares, representing an 8.2% stake and giving the founder’s circle voting power over the position, per the Schedule 13D.
  • The stake arrives after Antalpha’s May 2025 IPO, with Tether previously indicating interest in buying up to $25 million of shares.
  • Antalpha’s core business centers on Bitcoin-backed lending and mining equipment financing, with a reported $1.6 billion loan portfolio at year-end 2024 and ties to the Bitmain ecosystem.
  • Tether’s broader investment strategy is to deploy profits across crypto infrastructure, tokenized assets, and related tech—new bets alongside existing holdings in Eight Sleep, Gold.com, Anchorage Digital, and a Kaio-backed round.
  • The stablecoin issuer remains the dominant player in the market, with USDT accounting for about $187 billion in market capitalization and the total stablecoin market near $320.7 billion.

Antalpha and the mining-finance niche

Antalpha’s business model emphasizes liquidity and equipment financing for mining operators, a space that has drawn interest from investors seeking exposure to the cyclical upswing of crypto mining. The company’s sizable loan portfolio signals a continued focus on securing scalable credit lines for operators navigating equipment cycles and capital expenditure needs. Its connection to Bitmain’s ecosystem underscores a strategic alignment with a major supplier in the mining hardware sector, potentially easing access to hardware and related financing channels for clients.

Tether’s stake: governance, strategy, and potential impacts

The Schedule 13D filing confirms that Tether’s stake in Antalpha is substantial enough to position the company as a major shareholder. With Devasini listed as sharing voting and dispositive power, the arrangement signals an intentional governance role in Antalpha’s ongoing development. While the filing notes that Tether and its affiliates may adjust their position over time, the move reflects a broader pattern of Tether diversifying beyond its core stablecoin operations into strategic investments across crypto finance, infrastructure, and real-world asset initiatives.

Cointelegraph has previously reported on Tether’s expansive capital deployment—an approach that taps profits from USDT to fund ventures across mining, AI, financial services, and tokenized assets. The recent Antalpha stake complements a portfolio that has included investments in tokenized real assets and regulated financial infrastructure. The company’s strategy has included selective allocations to fintech and on-chain finance ventures, with profits fueling these bets rather than reserve-backed liquidity alone.

Tether’s broader venture footprint and what it signals

Beyond Antalpha, Tether’s investment activity this year has spanned several notable deals. In March, the company led a $50 million funding round for Eight Sleep, a firm building sleep-focused wellness hardware and software, which valued the company at around $1.5 billion. In February, Tether acquired a roughly $150 million stake in Gold.com, representing about 12% ownership, as part of its push to widen access to tokenized gold through its XAUt stablecoin product. In the same month, Tether announced a $100 million equity investment in Anchorage Digital, a federally chartered U.S. digital asset bank that provides custody, settlement, and stablecoin issuance services to institutional clients.

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CEO Paolo Ardoino has publicly highlighted the breadth of Tether’s venture exposure, noting that the firm has invested in more than 120 companies through its venture arm, with funding drawn from profits rather than from stablecoin reserves. This approach aims to diversify the company’s revenue streams and digital-asset ecosystem exposure while maintaining a cautious stance toward custodial and regulatory-compliant ventures.

Earlier this month, reports surfaced that Tether could pursue fresh capital at a valuation around $500 billion, with the company signaling that fundraising could be delayed if investor appetite does not materialize. The stake in Antalpha, along with the broader lineup of strategic bets, reinforces a narrative of continuous expansion into crypto infrastructure and related industries—an approach that aligns with Tether’s long-term ambition to anchor a broader ecosystem around stablecoins and on-chain finance.

Market context and what to watch next

Antalpha’s performance, combined with Tether’s growing investment footprint, offers a window into how stablecoin issuers are recalibrating their role in the crypto economy—from liquidity providers to strategic accelerators for on-chain assets, mining finance, and tokenized real-world assets. For investors, the key questions revolve around governance outcomes, the impact on Antalpha’s strategy and profitability, and how Tether’s venture portfolio may influence regulatory and market perceptions of stability-backed capital in crypto markets.

As the crypto landscape evolves, observers will watch how Tether’s stake translates into governance influence at Antalpha, how Antalpha leverages this partnership to scale its lending and financing operations, and how the broader set of Tether-backed ventures interacts with growth in mining, asset tokenization, and institutional-grade on-chain infrastructure.

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Readers should stay attentive to Antalpha’s quarterly results and any subsequent regulatory disclosures that illuminate how such strategic holdings shape governance, risk, and value creation in the mining-finance niche and beyond.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Tether Takes 8.2% Stake in Antalpha, Backs Bitcoin Mining Finance

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Tether Takes 8.2% Stake in Antalpha, Backs Bitcoin Mining Finance

Tether has taken an 8.2% stake in Antalpha, making the stablecoin issuer one of the company’s largest shareholders following its May 2025 initial public offering (IPO), according to a Monday filing.

The Schedule 13D filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission indicates that Tether now holds 1.95 million shares through related entities, with Giancarlo Devasini, chairman of Tether, sharing voting and dispositive power over the position.

The filing also states that Tether and its related entities may increase or reduce their holdings over time depending on market conditions and other factors.

Antalpha provides Bitcoin-backed lending and equipment financing to mining operators, reporting a loan portfolio of about $1.6 billion as of the end of 2024, and is closely tied to the Bitmain ecosystem, a major supplier of mining hardware.

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Antalpha raised about $49.3 million in last year’s IPO at $12.80 per share, according to its prospectus. Tether had previously indicated interest in purchasing as much as $25 million worth of shares.

Antalpha reported 2025 revenue of $79.7 million, up 68% year over year, while net income rose to $18.5 million, more than tripling from the previous year.

On Monday, its shares rose about 7.2% to around $9.97 in early trading, per Google Finance data.

Source: Google Finance

Tether is the issuer of Tether (USDT), the largest stablecoin by market capitalization, with a market cap of about $187 billion, roughly 58.4% of the total stablecoin market, which stands near $320.7 billion, according to DefiLlama data.

Stablecoin market cap. Source: DefiLlama

Related: Tether announces $150M recovery program for Drift Protocol

Tether expands investments across crypto infrastructure and beyond

Tether’s investment in Antalpha comes as the company is using its recent profits to expand into a range of sectors tied to digital assets, including mining, artificial intelligence, financial services and tokenized assets.

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Earlier on Monday, real-world asset tokenization protocol Kaio said Tether participated in an $8 million funding round.

“The participation of Tether reflects direct strategic alignment,” the announcement said. “USDT has become the dominant settlement layer for cross-border capital flows. KAIO provides the next layer: structured, compliant access to institutional-grade yield for USDT holders.”

In March, Tether led a $50 million investment in Eight Sleep, a company that develops sleep-focused products such as smart mattresses and wellness systems, valuing it at $1.5 billion.

In February, the company acquired a $150 million stake in Gold.com, representing about 12% ownership, as part of a push to expand access to tokenized gold through its XAUt product.

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The same month, Tether made a $100 million equity investment in Anchorage Digital, a federally chartered US digital asset bank that provides custody, settlement and stablecoin issuance services to institutional clients.

CEO Paolo Ardoino said in July that Tether has invested in more than 120 companies through its venture arm, with those investments funded from company profits rather than stablecoin reserves.

Source: Paolo Ardoino on X

Earlier this month, Tether was reported to be seeking fresh capital at a $500 billion valuation, with the company indicating it could delay the raise if investor demand falls short.

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