Business
‘He has the market in a chokehold’: Stocks swing as Trump posts
Since taking office last January, Trump’s comments to reporters in extemporaneous gatherings in the Oval Office and at formal press conferences, as well as his posts on social media, have been the primary driver behind the five best and worst days in the S&P 500 Index, according to an analysis from Fundstrat Research. It’s a grip unmatched by any modern American leader. No other president has orchestrated this many best and worst days in a dozen administrations going back to President Ronald Reagan in 1981.
“He has the market in a chokehold,” said Hardika Singh, economic strategist at Fundstrat. “The president isn’t supposed to have such an extraordinary amount of control over the fortunes of the stock market. It’s completely unprecedented.”
ETMarkets.comThe war in Iran is providing a perfect backdrop to see how much Trump can move US stocks. The S&P 500 just posted its fastest V-shaped drop and recovery since 2020, tumbling 9% from a Jan. 27 peak to the cusp of a technical correction on March 30, before rallying back to all-time highs over the course of 11 trading days.The impact of the president’s words is even clearer when examined session-by-session. For example, the S&P 500 sank 1.5% on March 20, as Trump said in a White House briefing that he didn’t want a ceasefire with Iran. Then, on March 31, the index jumped 2.9% for its best day since May and rallied through the rest of the week after Trump told reporters at several different news outlets that negotiations with Iran were going well and the war was close to ending. There are numerous similar examples from before and since then.
It isn’t just equities that are seeing these moves either. Commodity prices have also swung wildly, with oil market volatility rising to levels last seen at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.In essence, Trump’s wavering positions on the war have made him the market’s “arsonist and firefighter,” said Alexander Altmann, head of global equities tactical strategies at Barclays.
The whiplash strongly resembles last year’s tariff-driven rout and subsequent rebound. Both episodes were tied to abrupt policy jolts from the president and unwound by equally abrupt backpedaling. It has now reached the point where Wall Street is anticipating reversals in policy and rhetoric from day to day.
“Investors have been conditioned, not wrongly, to expect that if things get too bad, especially if it’s administration induced…they’re waiting for the tweet that says, actually, we’re good,” said Ross Mayfield, an investment strategist for Baird Private Wealth Management.
The president’s influence on stocks isn’t entirely new. Typically, the S&P 500’s biggest up and down days are driven by a combination of micro and macro catalysts, with Washington policy being one. What’s different about Trump’s second term is the market swings so closely track his social media posts and public speaking engagements.
“I have never seen a market that’s been this moved by chatter coming out of the White House on a daily basis,” said veteran market strategist Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research. “Trump speaks every single day, and every single day he says something that seems to have an impact on the market.”
Trump’s fixation on equity prices as a scoreboard was well known before his second term began. Official White House social media channels are now using their platforms to address market moves, posting animated graphics to tout S&P 500 records or telling Wall Street not to be “panicans” when Trump’s words or policies spark fears. He’s even explicitly urged investors to buy stocks.
“If we look back again in data, this has never happened before,” Fundstrat’s Singh said. “That to me is just crazy.”
Among the S&P 500’s best days during Trump’s current term are the 9.5% rally on April 9, 2025, when he paused his tariffs, and the 3.3% jump on May 12, 2025, when the US and China agreed to a 90-day trade truce. On the flipside, the worst days include the 6% plunge on April 4, 2025, after China retaliated with tariffs on the US, and the 4.8% drop on April 3, 2025, after the president first implemented sweeping levies.
ETMarkets.comOf course, some Wall Street pros argue that the symbiosis between what the president says and what the market does is purely anecdotal and a function of the frequency of the president’s communication.
For instance, a look at volatility measurements contradicts the idea that the market has been more turbulent under Trump than during past administrations, Barclays’ Altmann said. The average value of the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, across the entire term of each president since the inception of the gauge in 1990 is 19.3, precisely in line with Trump’s second term and with President Joe Biden’s term, according to his analysis.
“While the world may hang on to the unorthodox communication methods by the president, and anticipate a bout of market volatility in its wake, the reality is that markets are behaving in a consistent way with historic patterns,” Altmann said. “It is the medium — high cadency social media — by which it is reacting to news flow that has changed rather than the magnitude of the reaction.”
The rise of passive investing has made the market more reactive to news in general, whether it’s a president’s comments or an unexpected earnings report, said Michael Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management.
In the simplest terms, he explained, the computers that manage passive portfolios are being programmed to buy or sell assets based on headlines, which is driving moves in broader indexes. By his estimate, markets are approximately four to five times more reactive than they’ve been historically.
“The headline volatility from Trump just has to do with the fact that he’s speaking more frequently,” Green said. “The simple math is that he is just a guy born into a time.”
Business
Kenyan Star’s Epic Rise to Sub-2 Marathon Glory
LONDON — Sabastian Kimaru Sawe, the quiet Kenyan who just rewrote marathon history with a stunning 1:59:30 victory at the 2026 TCS London Marathon, has emerged as one of the most compelling figures in distance running.

The 31-year-old became the first athlete to break the two-hour barrier in an official, competition-eligible marathon, capping a meteoric rise from rural Kenyan roads to global dominance. Here are 10 essential things to know about the man they call the “silent assassin.”
1. Humble Beginnings in Kenya’s Rift Valley
Born on March 16, 1995 (some records list 1996), in Barsombe, Uasin Gishu County, Sawe grew up in the heart of Kenya’s famed running country. Like many elite athletes, he developed his endurance chasing cattle and running to school on dirt paths. His early life emphasized simplicity, hard work and a family mantra of resilience passed down from his grandmother, often referenced as “Koko” — “all will be well.”
2. Track Prodigy Turned Road King
Sawe first gained attention on the track and in cross country. He finished seventh in the senior men’s race at the 2023 World Cross Country Championships in Bathurst. His track personal bests include a 27:09.46 in the 10,000 meters. He also set a Kenyan national record in the one-hour run with 21,250 meters in Brussels in 2022, showcasing extraordinary aerobic capacity.
3. Half-Marathon Dominance
Before conquering the full marathon, Sawe excelled at the half. He claimed gold at the 2023 World Road Running Championships in Riga with a strong performance. His personal best stands at 58:05 from Copenhagen in 2024. He has won seven of nine career half marathons, establishing himself as a world-class short-distance road runner.
4. Blistering Marathon Debut
Sawe made his marathon debut at the 2024 Valencia Marathon, clocking 2:02:05 — the second-fastest debut in history, just 12 seconds behind the late Kelvin Kiptum’s mark on the same course. The performance immediately thrust him into the elite conversation and made him the fifth-fastest marathoner of all time at that point.
5. Back-to-Back Major Victories
In 2025, Sawe won the London Marathon in 2:02:27, his first Abbott World Marathon Major title, surging dramatically after 30K to drop a star-studded field. Later that year, he triumphed at the Berlin Marathon in 2:02:16 despite hot conditions, running alone for much of the race and posting the ninth-fastest time ever. He remains undefeated in his first four marathons.
6. Historic Sub-2 Breakthrough in 2026
Defending his London title on April 26, 2026, Sawe delivered the unthinkable: 1:59:30, shattering the previous world record and becoming the first to go under two hours in a ratified race. Yomif Kejelcha finished second in 1:59:41 and Jacob Kiplimo third in 2:00:28 in one of the deepest fields ever assembled.
7. Coaching Partnership with Italian Mentor
Sawe trains under Italian coach Claudio Berardelli, who spotted his potential early. Berardelli has described him as exceptionally talented, noting his fearlessness and work ethic. Training includes grueling 40K long runs and weekly volumes up to 200 kilometers, blending traditional Kenyan methods with modern science.
8. Tactical Genius and Mental Toughness
Known for bold moves, Sawe skipped water stations and unleashed devastating surges in London. His negative splits and ability to run solo demonstrate exceptional pacing judgment and mental fortitude. Rivals and analysts praise his calm demeanor — the “silent assassin” who lets his legs do the talking.
9. Injury Resilience and Comeback Story
Sawe has overcome challenges, including a stress fracture and back issues ahead of the 2026 London race. His ability to recover fully and deliver a world-record performance underscores his professionalism and support system, including physiotherapy and careful load management.
10. Legacy and Future Ambitions
With a perfect marathon record and the sub-2 barrier broken, Sawe is poised to dominate the Abbott World Marathon Majors and chase further records. His success highlights advancements in training, nutrition and super shoes while honoring Kenya’s rich distance-running heritage. At just 31 and in only his fifth marathon, more history seems likely.
Sawe’s journey embodies the blend of raw talent, disciplined preparation and cultural resilience that defines Kenyan running. From the red dirt roads of Uasin Gishu to the finish line on The Mall, he has stayed true to his roots while pushing the sport’s boundaries.
His 2026 London triumph wasn’t just about one day — it was the culmination of years of invisible miles, family support and an unwavering belief that barriers exist to be broken. As the marathon world digests his achievement, Sawe remains focused, humble and driven for more.
In post-race comments, the champion reflected on the moment: the perfect pacing, the roaring crowds and the dream realized. For fans of the sport, Sabastian Sawe represents the new standard — proof that human limits continue to expand on the roads of London, Berlin, Valencia and beyond.
His story resonates far beyond athletics. In a world seeking inspiration, the silent assassin from Kenya has spoken volumes with his feet, etching his name alongside legends like Eliud Kipchoge and Kelvin Kiptum while carving his own extraordinary path.
As Sawe looks ahead, the running community eagerly anticipates his next chapter. Whether defending titles, pursuing faster times or inspiring the next generation in Kenya, one thing is certain: the man who ran under two hours has only just begun. (Word count: 1,028)
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3 Of My Favorite Dividend Growth Stocks Trading Way Below Fair Value
Leo Nelissen is a macro-focused equity strategist and long-term investor with more than a decade of experience on Seeking Alpha, where he has built a following of over 50,000 readers. His work combines big-picture macro analysis, geopolitical insight, and bottom-up research to identify high-quality businesses and long-term investment opportunities. He is the founder of Main Street Alpha, a Seeking Alpha Investing Group focused on macro strategy, real portfolios, dividend investing, and disciplined capital allocation for long-term investors.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of REXR, RTX, GE either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
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Decoding the charts, Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said the index faced resistance near its 100-day EMA on the daily chart, which capped the rally and triggered fresh selling, dragging it below the 24,000 mark.
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