Cape Town, South Africa, May 5, 2026 — Prophet, an AI-native prediction market platform, has launched its first live trading tranche, introducing a system where an AI model acts as the counterparty to user trades using real capital.

The initial deployment allocates $10,000 in USDC to an AI-powered trading system and opens participation to users on the platform. Instead of matching buyers and sellers, the system allows users to trade directly against the AI, which generates probability-based pricing for each market.

What has launched

Prophet’s “Tranche 1” is a limited-access deployment designed to test the system under live market conditions. Users who deposit gain the ability to create markets, with the AI pricing each market upon creation. Once live, markets can be traded by other participants.

The AI system takes the opposing side of every trade, absorbing directional risk based on its probability estimates. Markets can resolve within relatively short timeframes, with some contracts settling in as little as 24 hours.

According to the team, the initial tranche is intended as a controlled test of system performance using real capital and user interaction.

One model, one probability

A key feature of the platform is its pricing mechanism. The system aggregates outputs from multiple large language models, including those developed by OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI, DeepSeek, and Meta. These models independently evaluate each market question, with Prophet combining their outputs into a single probability estimate.

The same architecture is used for market resolution. When a market reaches its deadline, the system evaluates real-world outcomes and settles the contract without a formal dispute process.

The team notes that this approach is experimental and may be subject to limitations in interpretation or accuracy.

Why the prediction market industry is watching

Prediction markets have seen significant growth in recent years, though most platforms continue to rely on human counterparties and manual or committee-based resolution.

Prophet’s model introduces a different structure, where liquidity and settlement are managed programmatically. This may allow for faster market creation and resolution, though its effectiveness at scale remains to be assessed.

Trading as system feedback

The platform is designed to incorporate trading activity into its development cycle. Each trade generates data on pricing accuracy, while each market expands the range of scenarios the system must evaluate.

According to the team, this feedback loop is expected to inform improvements to the model in future tranches.

Risks and limitations

The current version operates without a formal dispute mechanism. Market outcomes are determined by AI-based interpretation, which may be subject to error.

The initial $10,000 allocation is limited relative to broader market standards, and the tranche is positioned as a testing phase rather than a full-scale deployment.

Regulatory considerations may also apply, as AI-driven prediction markets represent an emerging category with evolving oversight frameworks.

Next steps

Tranche 1 is scheduled to run through May 8, 2026. The team plans to use data from this phase to refine pricing, resolution, and system design ahead of future deployments.

Subsequent tranches are expected to expand capital allocation and user access.

About Prophet

Prophet is a machine that predicts the future. An AI with a bankroll trades directly against users, allowing for any market to be opened instantly. Prophet is solving liquidity and resolution for the long tail of prediction markets.

Platform: app.prophetmarket.ai
X: @prophetmarketai
Website: prophetmarket.ai

Media contact
Eneo Hollenbach
Chief Marketing Officer
team@prophetmarket.ai

Disclaimer

This press release is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Participation in prediction markets involves risk, including potential loss of capital. AI-based systems may introduce additional uncertainties in pricing and resolution.

This publication is provided by the client. The text below is a paid press release that is not part of Cointelegraph.com independent editorial content. The text has undergone editorial review to ensure quality and relevance, it may not reflect the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.com. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before taking any actions related to the company. Disclosure.

A Solana-based reinsurance venture, OnRe, has closed a $5 million Series A led by Forward Industries and RockawayX to accelerate the deployment of on-chain risk transfer infrastructure. The round is designed to scale OnRe’s platform and bring more institutional participants into blockchain-driven reinsurance, a niche but increasingly visible segment of decentralized finance. In addition to the fresh capital, Forward intends to deploy up to $25 million into OnRe’s yield-bearing token on Solana, signaling a deeper strategic commitment to tokenized risk transfer on the chain.

Forward Industries, which maintains what is described as the largest corporate Solana (SOL) treasury—holding more than 7.01 million SOL—has seen notable moves in traditional markets as well. In Tuesday’s regular trading session, Forward’s Nasdaq-listed shares rose about 5.8% according to Yahoo Finance, though much of that gain faded in after-hours trading. Solana itself traded near $86.61, up roughly 2.7% on the day. CoinGecko tracks Forward’s SOL holdings as a major component of its treasury strategy, underscoring how traditional balance-sheet assets intersect with blockchain ambitions.

Key takeaways

• OnRe raises a $5 million Series A led by Forward Industries and RockawayX, with an option for Forward to invest up to $25 million more into OnRe’s Solana-based yield-bearing token.
• The investment signals growing institutional interest in on-chain reinsurance and tokenized risk transfer, blending traditional risk markets with DeFi rails.
• Global reinsurance is large—well over $600 billion in market value—with total reinsurance premiums around $2 trillion; pilots aim to streamline underwriting, collateral management and claims through blockchain.
• OnRe faces competition and collaboration in a nascent space that includes projects like Re and broader efforts to apply blockchain to insurance value chains, including experiments with tokenized assets and stablecoin payments for premiums.
• Forward’s prominence in SOL and its funding of OnRe highlight a broader theme: established corporate treasuries may increasingly align with blockchain infrastructure and real-world asset tokenization.

OnRe’s funding, strategy and what it aims to change

The Series A funding puts OnRe at the forefront of a small but growing cluster of ventures trying to move reinsurance processes onto blockchain networks. By leveraging tokenization and smart contracts, OnRe aims to automate elements of underwriting and capital flows that have traditionally been managed through manual, paper-driven processes. In practice, the concept envisions insurers transferring portions of risk to tokenized contracts and capital pools that can be tracked in real time across a distributed ledger, potentially reducing conflict between counterparties and accelerating settlement timelines.

Industry observers say the move is less about replacing conventional reinsurers and more about shaving frictions from a market where efficiency gains can unlock new capacity. Reinsurance, often described as the market for insurance of insurance, maintains a sprawling global footprint. But as the sector explores new data, risk modeling, and collateral mechanisms, blockchain pilots are being pitched as a way to improve transparency, reduce operational latency, and align incentives across multiple players—ranging from primary insurers to capital providers and workshops managing collateral requirements.

Solana rails, yield-bearing tokens and the institutional lens

Central to OnRe’s narrative is its plan to back its platform with a yield-bearing token on Solana. While the project has not publicly disclosed the token’s exact mechanics in detail, the arrangement signals a broader trend: the use of blockchain-native tokens to represent risk exposure and to channel yield from insured premia and risk-transfer transactions back to capital providers. For Forward Industries, committing to fund up to $25 million into this token reflects a concrete bet that institutional users can access regulated, on-chain risk alongside real-world risk transfer structures.

The arrangement also positions a dialogue between traditional treasuries and blockchain-native ecosystems at a time when large holders of blockchain assets—especially those tied to major networks like Solana—are increasingly exploring how to deploy their holdings in ways that complement their core business and investment theses. Forward’s substantial SOL position, combined with active participation in a reinsurance project, illustrates how corporate balance sheets could align with tokenized risk markets if the regulatory and operational frameworks prove workable at scale.

Context: where on-chain reinsurance stands in the broader market

Even as pilots proliferate, the on-chain reinsurance space remains in early stages. Industry data points to a market that is undeniably large but complex, with substantial activity still anchored in traditional processes. Fortune Business Insights has estimated the global reinsurance market at more than $600 billion in value, with total reinsurance premiums approaching the $2 trillion level. In this environment, blockchain-based platforms aim to streamline real-time tracking, underwriting and settlement through shared ledgers and automated governance mechanisms. OnRe is among several projects testing these ideas, including Re, a decentralized reinsurance protocol that seeks to connect institutional capital with collateralized risk and offer tokenized yield products to participants.

Beyond pure reinsurance, other efforts illustrate how tokenized assets and blockchain primitives intersect with insurance at large. For instance, industry coverage has noted Aon’s exploration of stablecoins for premium payments, signaling a broader willingness among traditional insurers to experiment with digital assets within the insurance value chain. Tim Fletcher, who runs Aon’s financial services division, has suggested that tokenized assets are likely to become more integrated with conventional financial systems over time. While these experiments hint at a broad shift, participants acknowledge that regulatory clarity and demonstrated scalability remain critical hurdles before widespread adoption can unfold.

As with any frontier technology, the path ahead is not linear. The current momentum around OnRe’s Series A reflects investor appetite for tangible progress—namely, real-world teams drawing on blockchain to address long-standing inefficiencies in risk transfer. Yet observers emphasize that the sector’s evolution will hinge on disciplined product development, clear governance frameworks and the ability to attract durable capital from diverse institutional backers. The interplay between traditional insurers, crypto-native players and regulators will shape how quickly and how broadly real-world risk can migrate onto blockchain rails.

Related developments in the insurance-crypto space, including Dubai’s experiments with crypto wallet integration for premium payments and claims, illustrate a wider industry interest in crypto-enabled insurance mechanics. These efforts, while still emerging, underscore a shared goal: to deliver faster, more transparent and more cost-efficient risk transfer using digital assets and programmable contracts. As the ecosystem matures, investors will be watching whether such pilots translate into scalable products that can withstand the cycle dynamics of both insurance markets and crypto markets.

Cointelegraph is committed to independent reporting, and this article reflects information disclosed by the involved parties and public market data. Readers are encouraged to verify details through official statements and primary sources as the OnRe investment round unfolds.

Forward Industries’ ongoing SOL treasury accumulation and its exposure to blockchain ventures remain a notable signal in a space where traditional corporate treasuries are increasingly exploring strategic bets on decentralized finance and tokenized risk frameworks. As OnRe advances, market participants will be watching not only the platform’s technical development but also how institutional capital, governance policies and regulatory developments intersect to determine whether on-chain reinsurance can move from pilot to scalable market practice.

TLDR:

• Hyperliquid DATs now hold nearly 9% of HYPE’s circulating supply, surpassing BTC, ETH, SOL, and BNB float-adjusted.
  
• HYPE is the only asset in the DAT dataset currently trading at a positive mNAV, easing fresh capital raises.
  
• Legacy sellers distributed holdings before ETF products arrive, lowering the risk of new demand meeting heavy sell pressure.
  
• If approved, HYPE ETF inflows would enter a tight float with early institutional ownership and an active treasury bid.

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Hyperliquid-linked digital asset treasury companies now hold close to 9% of HYPE’s circulating supply. This figure places HYPE above Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and BNB on a float-adjusted basis.

The concentration of institutional holdings, combined with recent ETF filing activity, has drawn attention from market analysts.

If an ETF approval materializes, new passive inflows could enter an already tight float, potentially creating upward price pressure on the asset.

Treasury Demand Sets HYPE Apart From Other Major Assets

Digital asset treasury vehicles, commonly called DATs, have become a growing force in crypto markets. They represent a new category of institutional balance sheet demand that was largely absent in prior market cycles. Their presence adds a structural bid that functions differently from retail or short-term speculative buying.

Moreover, HYPE stands out within this DAT cohort for one key reason. It is currently the only asset in the dataset trading at a positive modified net asset value, or mNAV.

That status gives treasury vehicles a cleaner path to raise fresh capital and continue purchasing supply from the open market.

As analyst @0xaletheia369 noted, “DATs now hold close to 9 percent of circulating HYPE, materially above BTC, ETH, SOL, and BNB on a float-adjusted basis.”

The concentration of this institutional demand within a relatively small circulating supply makes the dynamic more pronounced compared to larger-cap assets.

However, one caveat remains worth noting. HYPE’s circulating supply still represents a low share relative to its fully diluted valuation. This means that while treasury demand is strong, a broader supply unlock in the future could shift the balance.

ETF Filing Progress Adds a New Layer to the HYPE Supply Picture

Recent amendments to ETF filings for HYPE have made an approval path appear more realistic to market observers. The filings suggest that issuers are actively working through regulatory requirements.

That progress has brought renewed attention to how an ETF approval could interact with the current supply setup.

According to the analyst’s note, legacy sellers already had a visible route to distribute holdings before passive products arrive.

That prior distribution reduces the risk that new ETF demand simply meets old concentrated sell pressure. The timing of this supply absorption matters in how any future ETF flows would land.

Furthermore, if approvals do come through, incoming flows would hit a float that is already tightened by treasury activity.

The institutional ownership base remains early-stage, meaning there is still room for further accumulation. Together, these factors create a setup where passive inflows could translate more directly into price support than in more saturated markets.

The combination of treasury demand, a positive mNAV environment, and a clearer ETF pathway makes HYPE one of the more structurally distinct assets in the current market cycle.

Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple Labs, warned Tuesday that recent progress on the digital asset market structure bill in the US Senate did not guarantee success for the legislation, speculating that the next two weeks would be crucial.

Speaking at the Consensus crypto conference in Miami, Garlinghouse said that the likelihood of the market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, passing would “drop precipitously” if not addressed in the next two weeks. According to the Ripple CEO, the bill would be “too much of a loaded issue” amid campaigns for the 2026 US midterms, with primaries ongoing until the November elections.

“Do I think it’s perfect? Hell no,“ said Garlinghouse, referring to CLARITY. “I challenge you to show me any piece of legislation that we would call perfect. There’s tradeoffs and compromises, but I do think clarity is better than chaos.”

Source: Cointelegraph

The CEO’s remarks came after US Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks announced a compromise on stablecoin yield last week that could lead to the advancement of the CLARITY Act. Addressing stablecoins, as well as tokenized equities and ethics, has been one of the factors holding up the bill in the Senate since it was passed by the US House of Representatives in July 2025.

Related: Crypto PAC spends $500K in support of Indiana candidate ahead of primary

The CLARITY Act, already advanced by the Senate Agriculture Committee in a January markup, also requires approval by the Senate Banking Committee before a vote in the full chamber. Garlinghouse and Ripple executives have been part of negotiations on the CLARITY Act between White House officials and representatives of the crypto and banking industries.

“The Clarity Act is not a future priority; it is the priority,” said Senator Cynthia Lummis, a member of the banking committee, in a Tuesday X post. “Every corner of the industry is operating under legal uncertainty that Congress has the power to fix. The Senate needs to act.”

US financial agencies already moving forward without Congress

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) signed a memorandum of understanding in March to coordinate their approach to oversight of the digital asset market structure. SEC Chair Paul Atkins said that the agency‘s approach to crypto laws provided a “beginning, not an end,” with the commission awaiting passage of the CLARITY Act.

Magazine: How to fix suspected insider trading on Polymarket and Kalshi

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

A Fairshake poll finds 45% of Americans call crypto too risky as industry PACs deploy over $100 million into midterms.

A Politico poll conducted by Public First in April 2026 found that 45% of Americans say investing in cryptocurrency is not worth the risk, even if potential returns are high. The survey of 2,035 adults also found 44% believe AI is developing too fast, and nearly two-thirds want Congress to impose strict regulations or broad oversight on artificial intelligence.

The findings arrive as industry-backed super PACs pour unprecedented sums into the 2026 midterm cycle. Fairshake, the pro-crypto PAC backed by Coinbase, Andreessen Horowitz, and Ripple, has spent roughly $28 million across competitive primaries.

The pro-AI group Leading the Future, launched in August 2025, has raised more than $75 million and deployed funds in races across North Carolina, Texas, Illinois, and New York. Their combined spending exceeds $100 million.

A political liability in the making

The poll found that in hypothetical matchups, respondents were far less likely to support candidates backed by groups pushing looser AI regulation. Political observers told Politico that once voters connect campaign money to the industries behind it, backlash could be swift. “I do think if they see somebody is backed by crypto, that’s always going to be a problem,” former Ohio Representative Jim Renacci reportedly said.

The disconnect between spending and public trust is sharpest in name recognition. Only 9% of respondents have heard of Leading the Future, and just 3% recognise Fairshake. The industry has financial power that has not yet translated into public legitimacy.

That gap matters because both Fairshake and the crypto industry’s primary legislative goal, the Clarity Act, depend on the same Senate that faces midterm exposure.

As crypto.news documented, if Democrats take control of either chamber in November, Clarity Act passage odds are described as close to zero. Voter distrust of crypto at 45% makes the midterm environment a risk that PAC spending alone cannot resolve.

The right voices in the right rooms can reshape product, policy and hiring outcomes in crypto, three senior executives told CoinDesk’s Consensus Miami conference on Tuesday. Each cited a moment from her own organization when an outside perspective changed what was being built, argued or prioritized.

Mastercard SVP for Blockchain & Digital Assets Maja Lapcevic said her company’s crypto team had initially viewed infrastructure as the key to crypto adoption, until a partner reframed the problem around usability. “We probably all thought about infrastructure to be the winning formula for crypto,” she said. “But one of our partners actually really helped shed light on how we make crypto accessible, not complex, very simple to use.” That thinking helped push Mastercard toward cards linked to stablecoins, including for users in markets with limited access to traditional financial services, she said.

Crypto Council for Innovation Chief Strategy Officer Alison Mangiero said her organization had a similar realization around staking after bringing builders into policy discussions. “Sometimes we might think we understand, or we’ll put things into a bucket,” she said. “We’ll take a shortcut and say, oh, that sounds like a fund. Oh, that sounds like interest or yield, when in actuality what’s going on under the hood is fundamentally different.” After hearing from people building staking primitives, she said, CCI understood the need to describe staking as a technical service rather than a financialized product.

Clerisy Co-Founder and Managing Partner Alexandra Wilkis Wilson brought the argument to hiring. “Many of us fall into a very comfortable bias of hiring people who not only might look like ourselves or remind you of your younger self,” she said. She recalled one 10-person startup where a Myers-Briggs analysis found that eight of the 10 team members were extroverts. “It’s really important, when you’re growing teams, to not only bring in diversity on the outside, but also to think about diversity on the inside,” she said.

Mangiero closed by framing the issue as one for the broader industry. Crypto “is having a moment right now where folks are really interested in hearing our voice,” she said, “but that begs the question, what is our voice at the end of the day?” The conference, she added, “is called Consensus for a reason.” Good policy, she said, requires the industry to ensure different communities are reflected, including token holders and people building on top of blockchain networks, while also protecting consumers and allowing innovation to thrive.