Business
Economist Gary Shilling warns US recession is ‘almost inevitable’ in 2026
Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman discusses artificial intelligence performance and market uncertainty amid geopolitical concerns on ‘The Claman Countdown.’
Gary Shilling, the legendary forecaster known for his bearish accuracy and being fired from Merrill Lynch for predicting the 1969-70 recession, is sounding the alarm on a 2026 economic collapse.
In a recent interview with Business Insider, Shilling warned that a U.S. recession is “almost inevitable” by year-end, driven by a “frozen” housing market, corporate investment indicators and a weakening consumer base.
“Stocks are very expensive and there probably is a major correction coming somewhere in the relatively near future,” Shilling said. “A decline of 20% or 30% is no big deal by historical standards. So I would say that’s probably in the cards.”
“I’ve sort of made a career looking for those hidden flaws, and I don’t see anything right now that is just screaming for a big sell-off, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t there,” he added.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on May 1, 2026, in New York City. (Getty Images)
Across American real estate, buyers and sellers have been reluctant to make moves as interest rates remain elevated, and mortgage loan rates slowly tick down. There is also a lack of affordable inventory and reports of rising foreclosures, signaling homeowners continue to get squeezed.
Shilling also pointed to what he described as a “collapse” in capital expenditures, or large investments that companies expect will last for years and boost overall future value. Business Insider cited that broader capital expenditures grew just 3.9% by the end of 2025, compared with a pandemic peak of 24% capex growth.
The economist spotlighted the state of the U.S. consumer as the third pillar leading to a recession, with the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge remaining stubbornly high in March, rising 0.7% month-over-month and up 3.5% from a year ago.
Former White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Tyler Goodspeed discusses the economic impact of the Iran conflict and whether the U.S. is facing a recession on ‘Mornings with Maria.’
When it comes to economic solutions, Shilling said a downturn could be prevented by fiscal stimulus or a strengthening consumer — “both of which he thinks are unlikely.”
“That’s really on very thin ice in terms of income, in terms of people’s willingness to spend,” Shilling said.
GET FOX BUSINESS ON THE GO BY CLICKING HERE
BNY Wealth head of investment strategy and equities Alicia Levine discusses investing amid the geopolitical conflict on ‘Making Money.’
Other economists appear divided on the economic outlook for 2026. BNY Wealth Head of Investment Strategy and Equities Alicia Levine said no recession is coming on “Making Money with Charles Payne” last month; around the same time, billionaire investor Leon Cooperman told FOX Business’ Liz Claman that the U.S. is heading toward a recession.
“My own view is, there’s a lot of problems out there. The market’s too highly valued,” Cooperman said.
“It just feels that the market was already weakening going into the Iran conflict,” Levine countered. “Earnings have moved higher since the beginning of the year, 3% higher… that’s what we’re looking at, and we don’t see a recession this year.”
Business
Staten Island restaurateur balances growth and rising costs
Small Business Administration Administrator Kelly Loeffler joins ‘Mornings with Maria’ to tout President Donald Trump’s small business agenda, highlight job growth from tax cuts and detail a crackdown on $22B in suspected fraud.
As the U.S. approaches its 250th anniversary, small businesses remain a cornerstone of the American economy, employing nearly half of the private sector workforce and powering communities across the country.
On Staten Island, that story is playing out in real time for restaurant owner Rob DeLuca.
DeLuca didn’t initially plan on a career in hospitality. His father worked in construction and at one point told him to find a different path. That push led him to a job bussing tables at a local restaurant. What started as a fallback quickly became something more.
MAMDANI TAX BREAK PROPOSAL SPARKS FEARS AS BUSINESS LEADERS WARN OF ‘FRAGILE’ NYC ECONOMY
“I worked while I went to school, got my bachelor’s and my master’s,” DeLuca told FOX Business. “I almost went to law school, but the restaurant was always calling me back.”

Young male chef making Bolognese pasta in a commercial kitchen. Close-up. (Getty / Getty Images)
More than 20 years later, DeLuca now owns three restaurants: DeLuca’s Italian Restaurant, a high-end dining establishment he opened nine years ago; Don Roberto’s, a classic Italian concept; and Rocky’s Pizza Bar. Together, they make up what he refers to as the “Delucaverse,” a growing portfolio of brands rooted in the same community.
But expansion has come at a time when the economics of running a restaurant are becoming increasingly difficult.
DeLuca says prices have risen roughly 20% over the past year alone, driven largely by persistent supply chain pressures that began during the pandemic and never fully eased.
MAMDANI’S CLASH WITH BILLIONAIRE PUTS NYC STREET FOOD VENDORS IN THE CROSSHAIRS
“The food cost supply chain has gone through the roof,” he said. “Suppliers bumped up prices during COVID, and we thought it would be temporary. It didn’t come back down. And now with global tensions impacting gas prices, it affects the supply chain and food prices almost instantly.”
Those increases are especially difficult to navigate in a neighborhood like Staten Island, where much of his business comes from repeat customers.
“People are very price conscious right now,” DeLuca said, adding that customers notice when dishes increase in cost from $13 to $19 to $22, for example.
Even so, DeLuca says the passion for the work keeps him going, despite the long hours and mounting responsibilities.
“Every day I wake up with a smile because I don’t feel like I’ve worked a day in my life,” he said. “But it’s a lot of work. I have two small children I want to spend time with… and at the end of the day, the buck stops with me.”
O’LEARY SLAMS NYC TAX PLAN AS ‘SHEER BLIND STUPIDITY,’ DEFENDS WEALTHY INVESTORS
His story reflects a broader reality for small business owners nationwide: balancing rising costs, shifting consumer behavior, and the weight of running an operation where every decision matters.

Employees talk amongst themselves at a small business. (Getty Images)
Still, many are adapting. From policy shifts aimed at boosting domestic production to the growing use of artificial intelligence, now used by a majority of small businesses, owners are finding new ways to stay competitive.
GET FOX BUSINESS ON THE GO BY CLICKING HERE

A computer screen displays an image of artificial intelligence. (iStock)
For DeLuca, the focus remains on consistency and community: keeping his restaurants running, maintaining quality, and serving the customers who have supported him from the beginning.
It’s a model that has defined Main Street for generations and one that continues to evolve as small businesses navigate the challenges ahead.
Business
Former USTR sees no impending tariff relief

More “unpredictability” and “volatility” ahead.
Business
Why did Paddington Bear need a police escort?
Rav Wilding joins us with the latest crime headlines.
From a shocking BBC investigation exposing scammers abusing dogs to con animal lovers, to how to spot a shop used by organised crime — plus why Paddington Bear needed a police escort.
To watch this with subtitles go to BBC iPlayer and search for Morning Live from 06/05/2026.
Business
State govt commits another $1.5b to housing ahead of budget
The state government has committed another $1.5 billion to its housing spend ahead of the budget, while at the same time ruling out any significant changes to stamp duty.
Business
Thai Board of Investment (BOI) approves TikTok’s $25 billion investment in data infrastructure
The Thai Board of Investment (BOI) has officially approved a $25-billion data infrastructure investment by TikTok, part of a larger $29-billion package of six major projects aimed at bolstering Thailand’s digital economy.
Key Points
- Investment Scope: TikTok’s $25-billion investment is focused on expanding data storage and processing infrastructure in Bangkok, Samut Prakan, and Chachoengsao.
- Economic Context: The project is part of a total of $29 billion in new investments approved by the BOI, reflecting a 2.4-fold year-on-year surge in investment applications in early 2026.
- Strategic Objectives: The infrastructure expansion is intended to support the rising demand for digital services and strengthen Thailand’s position in regional digital connectivity and AI-aligned growth.
- Workforce Development: TikTok has pledged to provide educational resources, including digital literacy and e-commerce training, to create new business opportunities for Thai entrepreneurs.
- Corporate Presence: TikTok, owned by ByteDance, has operated in Thailand since 2021 through its regional office, TikTok Technologies Co, and currently serves millions of users and business entities across Southeast Asia.
The total investment value of TikTok ‘s data infrastructure project in Thailand is 842 billion baht (approximately $25 billion). This large-scale expansion, approved by the Board of Investment (BOI) in May 2026, involves installing additional servers and expanding data storage and processing infrastructure.
The project will focus on strengthening regional digital infrastructure with facilities across Bangkok, Samut Prakan, and Chachoengsao. This latest approval follows a previously granted 127-billion-baht data-hosting project in 2025 and a broader commitment by TikTok owner ByteDance to invest in Thai digital literacy and e-commerce. The investment comes amid a surge in Thai digital sector applications, which exceeded 1 trillion baht in the first quarter of 2026.
This massive undertaking involves expanding servers and data processing capabilities across Bangkok and surrounding provinces to meet increasing digital demand. Beyond infrastructure, TikTok has committed to supporting Thailand’s digital workforce by developing literacy and e-commerce curricula for local entrepreneurs, further cementing the country’s role as a regional hub for digital services and AI-driven growth.
The surge in digital sector investments in Thailand is primarily driven by massive capital inflows into data infrastructure and a strategic shift toward an AI-centered economy. The Board of Investment (BOI) recently reported that investment applications in the first quarter of 2026 exceeded 1 trillion baht, a 2.4-fold increase year-on-year, fueled by mega-projects in digital and electronics sectors.
A major catalyst for this growth is the expansion of digital infrastructure, highlighted by a $25-billion investment from a local unit of TikTok to install servers and expand data processing across Bangkok and neighboring provinces. Global demand for artificial intelligence (AI) processing and cloud services now accounts for 86% of the total digital investment value, attracting investors from Singapore, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Additionally, Thailand is positioning itself as a regional semiconductor and electronics hub through national strategies aimed at developing a high-tech workforce and supporting AI-driven hardware demand.
Other People are Reading
Business
Wiluna seeks legal block on Creasy vote
Wiluna Mining Corporation management has sought Supreme Court intervention in its ongoing control spat with an entity linked to prominent prospector Mark Creasy.
Business
Airlines cut 13,000 flights in May as jet fuel prices soar
Airlines have removed nearly two million seats from flights over the month, data from Cirium shows.
Business
Earnings call transcript: Ternium Q1 2026 beats EPS, revenue expectations

Earnings call transcript: Ternium Q1 2026 beats EPS, revenue expectations
Business
Super League completes Misfits Ads Division acquisition

Super League completes Misfits Ads Division acquisition
Business
Millers group pans petition to tab gluten as major food allergen

NAMA questions call to classify oats as gluten-containing grain.
-
Business7 days agoTesla Officially Registers Elon Musk’s Stock: What Investors Need to Know
-
NewsBeat3 days agoChannel 5 – All Creatures Great and Small series 7 new post
-
Entertainment7 days agoInsider Claims Reason Behind Key & Peele Split
-
Tech5 days agoTrump’s 25% EU auto tariff breaches Turnberry Agreement that also covers semiconductors and digital trade
-
Sports5 days agoPaul Scholes issues Marcus Rashford reality check as agreement emerges over Man United star
-
Entertainment5 days agoMet Gala 2026 Rumored Guest List Is Turning Heads
-
Entertainment6 days agoCelebrities Who Are Attending the 2026 Met Gala Event
-
Business5 days agoStrait of Hormuz Blockade Persists Amid US-Iran Standoff, Sending Oil Prices Soaring
-
Business7 days agoStrait of Hormuz Remains Heavily Restricted on April 29 Amid Iran Conflict
-
Entertainment5 days ago
New on Prime Video in May 2026 — Full List of Movies and Shows
-
Sports5 days agoDavid Benavidez responds to team Canelo saying the fight will never happen
-
Sports5 days agoCavaliers vs. Raptors Game 6 live score, updates, highlights from 2026 NBA playoffs first-round series
-
Crypto World7 days agoMeta (META) starts stablecoin payout to creators in Circle’s USDC on Polygon, Solana via Stripe
-
Tech7 days agoTexas Instruments made a new flagship graphing calculator: the TI-84 Evo
-
Sports5 days agoIPL 2026: ‘Love you darling’- Hardik Pandya’s reaction to MS Dhoni steals the show |Watch | Cricket News
-
Sports7 days agoSaudi Arabia set to withdraw LIV Golf funding after 2026 season, per reports
-
Tech6 days agoMark Zuckerberg Says Meta Is Working On AI Agents For Personal And Business Use
-
Entertainment5 days agoKylie Jenner Hit With Second Lawsuit From Ex-Housekeeper
-
Sports5 days agoPlane crash in Wimberley, Texas kills 5 pickleball players at tournament
-
Sports7 days agoArsenal, Atletico Madrid share draw after penalty drama in Champions League semi-final

You must be logged in to post a comment Login