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Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Drops 11% as Crypto Market Slumps

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The Bitcoin network’s mining difficulty has once again moved in a volatile direction, highlighting how external shocks—from extreme weather to regulatory pressure—continue to ripple through the ecosystem. In the most recent adjustment window, the metric dropped about 11.16% in the last 24 hours, marking the steepest one-day decline since China intensified its 2021 crackdown on crypto mining. With the adjustment taking effect at block 935,429, the difficulty sits around 125.86 terahashes and the network’s average block time hovers near 9.47 minutes, just shy of the 10-minute target. Industry observers note that the next adjustment, set for February 20, is forecast to rebound by roughly 5.63% to about 132.96 T, according to CoinWarz data. The sequence underscores how sensitive the network remains to a mix of weather-related outages, shifting energy economics, and ongoing structural changes within the mining sector.

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin mining difficulty fell by about 11.16% in the last 24 hours, the largest one-day drop since the 2021 crackdown in China.
  • Current difficulty is 125.86 T at block 935,429, with an average block time near 9.47 minutes, underscoring continued efficiency pressure in the network.
  • The next adjustment on February 20 is projected to rise about 5.63% to roughly 132.96 T, signaling a partial recovery after the recent pullback.
  • A severe winter storm in January—Winter Storm Fern—disrupted power grids across 34 states and trimmed US miner hashrate, illustrating how weather can translate into measurable network effects.
  • Foundry USA, the world’s largest mining pool by hash rate, briefly saw its capacity cut by around 60% during the storm, shrinking from about 400 EH/s to 198 EH/s before recovering to above 354 EH/s and maintaining a sizable market share.
  • January’s broader picture showed the Bitcoin network hashrate retreating to a four-month low as miners reallocate to compute workloads beyond traditional mining.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Market context: The ongoing mix of supply-side disruption (weather-related outages), regulatory pressures, and energy-market dynamics continues to shape miner behavior and network security, with a notable tilt toward more flexible, high-availability compute deployments beyond pure traditional mining.

Why it matters

Bitcoin’s security and block production depend on the global distribution of mining power. The recent difficulty drop—driven in part by infrastructure outages tied to Winter Storm Fern—signals how external shocks can temporarily reduce the aggregate hashing power securing the network. The subsequent projected rebound in the next adjustment suggests a partial normalization as operations restart and energy systems stabilize. The episodes also highlight a broader resilience dynamic: as traditional mining pools feel weather- and grid-related constraints, some miners have pivoted toward diversified compute applications, including AI data centers and other high-performance computing tasks, which can alter the geographic and economic makeup of hashrate distribution (CRYPTO: BTC).

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Large areas of the United States experienced power outages and service disruptions during winter storm Fern. Source: AccuWeather

The storm’s impact underscores the fragility of mining-dependent infrastructure. The disruption forced US-based miners to curb energy usage and pause operations, translating into a lower total network hashrate and a temporary easing of the computational pressure that underpins Bitcoin’s protocol security. Foundry USA—widely recognized as the largest pool by hashrate—reported a dramatic swing, with hashing power plummeting from nearly 400 EH/s to about 198 EH/s in the storm’s wake, just as the grid faced outages across broad swaths of the country. The fallout was nonetheless transitively mitigated as operations regained traction and hashing power rebounded in the days that followed, reflecting a resilient but stressed sector laced with concentrated capacity.

Mining, China, Bitcoin Mining, United States, Mining Pools
The market share of Bitcoin mining pools. Source: Hashrate Index

Even as the storm receded, the broader January data painted a picture of a network navigating a quieter, more cost-conscious cycle. The total Bitcoin hashrate declined to a four-month low, a reflection of both macro crypto market headwinds and miners’ strategic realignment toward compute tasks that can leverage surplus energy during off-peak periods. This pattern aligns with a wider industry trend: operators are increasingly balancing long-term capital commitments with shorter-term flexibility to adapt to energy prices, grid reliability and shifting demand profiles for computing power beyond proof-of-work competition alone.

Why it matters

The sequence of events surrounding mining difficulty and hashrate carries implications for both the security architecture and the economics of running a mining operation. A lower difficulty can ease block production temporarily, potentially affecting miners’ revenue dynamics, especially for those with higher energy costs or less efficient hardware. Conversely, the forecasted rebound in the next adjustment hints at a prompt re-consolidation of hashrate, which could re-tighten margins for smaller operators and increase the concentration of power among larger pools with greater resilience to weather-related shocks.

From a market perspective, the volatility in hashrate can coincide with price fluctuations, adding another layer to the already complex relationship between mining activity and Bitcoin’s spot market. The January and February patterns suggest a sector that remains highly reactive to externalities—weather, policy signals, and the evolving balance of energy economics—while continuing to innovate around operational efficiency and diversification of compute workloads. Those dynamics will influence how quickly the network can absorb future disruptions and how miners price risk in a landscape where energy costs, hardware depreciation, and regulatory risk remain in sharp relief.

What to watch next

  • February 20: The next mining-difficulty adjustment and the degree of rebound toward 132.96 T.
  • Restart and stabilization of Foundry USA’s hashrate; monitoring for any long-term shifts in pool market shares.
  • Any policy or grid reliability developments that could affect U.S. mining operations and energy availability.
  • New data on how miners allocate capacity between traditional mining and other compute workloads, including AI data centers.

Sources & verification

  • CoinWarz difficulty charts and block data for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) at block 935,429 and the projected February adjustment.
  • AccuWeather reporting on Winter Storm Fern and its impact on regional power infrastructure in the United States.
  • Hashrate Index pool-market-share data reflecting Foundry USA’s post-storm recovery and market position.
  • Cointelegraph reporting on January’s hashrate declines and the broader context of miner activity during weather events.

Bitcoin mining difficulty, storms and the path to the February adjustment

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) mining difficulty dipped about 11.16% over the past 24 hours, underscoring how swiftly external conditions can influence the security and economics of the network. The current reading places the difficulty at roughly 125.86 T, with the adjustment taking effect at block 935,429. The network’s average block time sits at about 9.47 minutes, a hair under the 10-minute target that helps maintain predictable issuance and transaction throughput. CoinWarz tracks the data behind the scene, and projections for February 20 show a likely rebound of around 5.63%, lifting the metric toward 132.96 T. This sequence—sharp decline followed by expected recovery—was anticipated by observers who have watched a pattern emerge since the 2021 China crackdown, when mining operations shifted dramatically in response to policy changes and market conditions.

The context for the latest adjustment owes much to a storm season that has repeatedly stressed the Bitcoin network’s fundamentals. Winter Storm Fern swept across much of the United States in January, disrupting electrical infrastructure and forcing curtailment of miner energy use in 34 states across roughly 2,000 square miles. The immediate consequence was a measurable throttling of the network’s total hashrate and a temporary softening of the hash-power centralization that had been building in certain corridors of mining activity. As outages and grid instability mounted, the resilience of large-scale operators—bolstered by diversified energy sourcing and operational cadence—helped the sector rebound once the storm abated.

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One consequence of the weather-driven disruption was its impact on the largest mining pool by hashrate: Foundry USA. The bloc of hashing power belonging to this operator was temporarily slashed by around 60%, dropping from near 400 EH/s to about 198 EH/s during the peak of Winter Storm Fern. Hashrate Index corroborates the shift in market dynamics, noting how the pool’s share waxed and waned with the storm’s intensity. In the days that followed, Foundry USA’s hashrate recovered to more than 354 EH/s, renewing its status as a dominant force in the network with a market share hovering around 29.47% at the time of reporting. The broader narrative is that while the storm caused an abrupt pullback, the sector’s capacity to bounce back remained evident as miners reconnected with power sources and recommenced operations.

Beyond the storm, January’s overall momentum pointed to a four-month low in total Bitcoin hashrate, signaling a period of caution as miners assess the balance between energy costs, hardware depreciation, and the macro crypto environment. The combination of weather-related outages and market headwinds has prompted a cautious stance among some operators, who are re-evaluating risk profiles and exploring adjacent compute workloads to maximize asset utilization during periods of mining downtime. The result is a nuanced picture: even as the next difficulty adjustment points to a potential rebound, the path forward may involve continued strategic shifts as the industry recalibrates in response to evolving incentives and constraints.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Paradigm builds pro-grade prediction market terminal for institutional traders

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Paradigm builds pro-grade prediction market terminal for institutional traders

Paradigm is building a pro‑grade prediction market terminal, eyeing an internal MM unit and S&P‑style index product as Kalshi’s valuation jumps to $22B on surging volumes.

Paradigm is building a dedicated prediction market trading terminal aimed squarely at professional traders and market makers, in one of the clearest signs yet that real‑money event markets are being treated as an emerging asset class rather than a curiosity. The project, led by Paradigm partner Arjun Balaji and initiated in late 2025, is designed to give sophisticated users Bloomberg‑style tools to trade, analyze and route liquidity across a growing ecosystem of on‑chain and regulated prediction platforms, according to a recent report in Fortune.

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The San Francisco‑based crypto investment firm is simultaneously weighing the launch of an internal prediction market‑making business, while working with researchers on a “prediction market index” that would package multiple event contracts into a single, tradable structure, explicitly modeled on benchmarks such as the S&P 500. Such an index could mirror earlier experiments with volatility and DeFi indices, and follows a broader wave of venture capital interest in the sector; one recent Forbes analysis noted that prediction market startups attracted $3.7 billion in new capital and “minted young billionaires at Polymarket and Kalshi” as trading volumes exploded.

Paradigm has already begun aggregating prediction market data into a public panel, a necessary precondition for any institutional‑grade terminal product. The firm is also one of the most aggressive financiers of regulated prediction venue Kalshi: in December 2025, Kalshi announced a $1 billion Series E funding round at an $11 billion valuation, led by Paradigm and joined by Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, ARK Invest and others, doubling its value in under two months, as first reported by TechCrunch and corroborated by company statements.

That bet has continued to pay off. A subsequent funding round reported in March 2026 lifted Kalshi’s valuation again, to $22 billion, after a further $1 billion raise, according to coverage compiled by Yahoo Finance and The Wall Street Journal. As prediction markets move from sub‑$100 million monthly volumes in early 2024 to more than $13 billion by the end of 2025, according to research cited by Forbes, the emergence of a dedicated Paradigm‑backed terminal, internal liquidity provision and index products suggests the asset class is being refashioned into financial infrastructure, rather than treated as a sideshow to spot crypto.

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Deepcoin becomes first CEX to integrate Polymarket ‘event contracts’

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Deepcoin becomes first CEX to integrate Polymarket 'event contracts'

Deepcoin is the first centralized exchange to integrate Polymarket event contracts, syncing quotes, liquidity and clearing so users can trade real‑world events with CEX tooling.

Summary

  • Deepcoin has launched synchronized “Event Contracts” in partnership with Polymarket, becoming the first centralized exchange to plug directly into its markets.
  • The integration offers real‑time quotes, shared liquidity and unified clearing, letting users trade Polymarket‑style contracts with CEX speed and tooling.
  • Deepcoin says it will keep refining the product toward a more “pure and professional” event‑trading experience tied to real‑world outcomes.

Cryptocurrency exchange Deepcoin has entered a formal partnership with prediction market platform Polymarket to launch “Event Contracts,” marking the first time a centralized exchange has integrated directly with Polymarket’s real‑money event markets. Announced on April 1, the tie‑up allows Deepcoin users to access “real quotes and liquidity support synchronized with global top event markets” while trading through standard exchange accounts, according to a company statement reported by ChainCatcher.

Under the new structure, both sides have implemented “deep integration of underlying logic and clearing synchronization,” so that positions taken via Deepcoin are effectively mirrored one‑for‑one with corresponding Polymarket contracts. This design means users can “directly participate in popular contracts on Polymarket through their Deepcoin accounts, enjoying CEX trading speed” and order‑book style execution that aligns with “professional trading habits,” the exchange said.

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Deepcoin framed the launch as the first step in building out a dedicated, institutional‑grade venue for real‑world event trading. The platform stated it would “continue to refine its products in the future to create a more pure and professional trading experience,” signaling plans to iterate on contract design, risk management and user analytics as volumes scale. By routing demand from a centralized venue into on‑chain prediction markets, the partnership effectively opens CEX rails into a segment historically dominated by niche DeFi interfaces and bespoke OTC flows.

The move lands just as regulated event markets and decentralized prediction protocols are drawing heightened attention from both venture capital and regulators. In March, Kalshi’s latest financing pushed its valuation to $22 billion as demand for macro and political contracts surged, according to coverage compiled by Yahoo Finance, while a recent Forbes analysis described prediction markets as “on the cusp of becoming core financial infrastructure” amid rising institutional interest. At the same time, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission enforcement director David Miller has warned that insider‑trading laws apply fully to prediction markets, underscoring the compliance pressure that CEX integrations like Deepcoin’s will have to navigate.

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U.S. BTC ETFs post first monthly inflows since October

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ETF AUM (CheckonChain)

U.S.listed spot bitcoin ETFs ended March with $1.32 billion in net inflows to record their first monthly inflows since October, SoSoValue data shows.

This follows four consecutive months of net outflows, which coincided with bitcoin declining by as much as 50% from its October all time high of $126,000.
November saw $3.5 billion in outflows, followed by $1.1 billion in December, $1.6 billion in January, and $206 million in February.

March also marked bitcoin’s first positive monthly candle in six months, suggesting a potential shift in momentum.

ETF assets under management have remained relatively resilient, however. Holdings declined from 1.38 million BTC in October to a low of 1.28 million BTC, a drop of roughly 7%, and have since recovered to around 1.31 million BTC, according to CheckonChain.

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ETF investors remain underwater on average, with an estimated cost basis near $84,000 compared to a current spot price of about $68,000.

ETF AUM (CheckonChain)
ETF AUM (CheckonChain)

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Galaxy Digital’s (GLXY) testnet suffers hack but no client funds or information were compromised

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Galaxy Digital's (GLXY) testnet suffers hack but no client funds or information were compromised

Galaxy Digital (GLXY), the digital asset financial services firm founded by Mike Novogratz, said it recently contained a cybersecurity incident involving unauthorized access to an isolated development workspace, according to a statement from a company spokesperson.

“An immaterial amount of company funds used for testing within the isolated development workspace was impacted,” the spokesperson said in emailed comments. The loss was less than $10,000, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

The firm emphasized that the affected environment was used solely for research and development and was not connected to its core infrastructure, production systems, trading platforms or client accounts.

Galaxy said it detected the intrusion and moved quickly to contain it, secure the compromised workspace and implement additional precautionary measures across its on-chain infrastructure.

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“No client funds or client account information were accessed or at risk at any point based on our review to date,” Galaxy said, adding that all platforms and services remain fully operational and secure for clients.

Hacks and exploits remain a persistent risk in the crypto industry, where the combination of open-source code, large pools of onchain liquidity and uneven security practices creates an attractive target for attackers.

Billions of dollars are lost to smart contract exploits, phishing schemes and infrastructure breaches, with industry estimates often exceeding $1–2 billion annually in recent years.

Even when incidents are contained, and client assets are not impacted, breaches can erode trust, trigger heightened regulatory scrutiny and underscore the operational risks facing firms operating in largely irreversible, always-on financial systems.

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Galaxy is a diversified financial services and investment firm focused on the digital asset and blockchain sector, providing institutional clients with trading, asset management, lending, advisory and custody services.

The firm operates across several core business lines, including global markets, asset management and digital infrastructure, while also running businesses in areas like crypto mining, staking and data center operations.

Positioned as a bridge between traditional finance and crypto, Galaxy offers institutional-grade access to digital assets and related technologies, alongside investments in blockchain ventures and emerging areas such as AI-powered infrastructure.

The company said it is continuing to review the incident and will provide updates as appropriate.

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Read more: Bitcoin’s quantum threat is real, but far from an existential crisis, Galaxy says

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What Does it Mean for Bitcoin?

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What Does it Mean for Bitcoin?

Warren Buffett, the legendary investor and chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, revealed on CNBC this week that his firm purchased approximately $17 billion in US Treasury bills at the latest auction. Is a stock market crash coming and what does it mean for Bitcoin (BTC)?

Key takeaways:

  • Berkshire held $373 billion in cash or cash equivalents as of 2025’s close, more than double the levels in 2023.

  • The firm’s rising cash reserves typically precede major stock market crashes, a bad sign for Bitcoin.

Buffett still sees better value in cash than in stocks

Buffett’s message is straightforward: Berkshire does not see the recent equity pullback as a sufficiently attractive buying opportunity.

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For context, the S&P 500 has fallen about 5.75% since reaching a record high in January.

S&P 500 weekly performance chart. Source: TradingView

Buffett said stocks are not “substantially” cheaper after the decline and described the sell-off as “nothing” compared with earlier downturns in which markets fell more than 50%.

That helps explain Berkshire’s latest Treasury-bill purchase. The company ended 2025 with about $373 billion in cash and equivalents, up from a record $334.2 billion a year earlier and more than double its level at the end of 2023.

Buffett, who famously called Bitcoin “rat poison,” typically gets into cash before major stock crashes, historical data shows.

In 1998, for instance, Buffett began trimming Berkshire’s stock exposure and raising cash, pushing the company’s cash and cash-equivalents holdings to $13.1 billion, or about 23% of total assets.

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Berkshire’s cash and cash-equivalents holdings chart. Source: GuruFocus.COM

By mid-2000, that figure had climbed to nearly $15 billion, or roughly 25% of assets, before Berkshire started deploying capital into bargains as the Dot-com bubble burst.

Bitcoin’s positive correlation with stocks may hurt prices

Bitcoin has traded more like a stock than a traditional safe haven for much of the post-2020 period, often moving in the same direction as US equities, especially the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

As of Wednesday, the 20-week rolling correlation coefficient between the two markets was positive at 0.47.

Nasdaq Composite and BTC/USD’s 20-week correlation coefficient chart. Source: TradingView

If Buffett’s risk-off strategy is correct, then Bitcoin should see another crash alongside stocks. Fresh quantum-security concerns, war-driven inflation risks, and nearly 50% US recession odds are putting pressure on the BTC price.

Berkshire’s portfolio decisions have also leaned away from crypto-adjacent finance.

In the first quarter of 2025, the firm fully exited Nu Holdings, a crypto-friendly fintech company, after building its position in 2021 and 2022. It secured about $250 million in profits from these investments.

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Multiple analysts predict BTC’s price to drop to as low as $30,000 in 2026.