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Crypto World

US banks map staged digitization, may reshape crypto rails

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Crypto Breaking News

)Major shifts toward a digitized financial architecture are edging closer to mainstream adoption, according to a forthcoming Moody’s Ratings assessment. In conversations with U.S. banks and other market intermediaries, the credit-ratings firm found a common view: tokenization will unfold in two stages—an initial slow phase that gradually accelerates into a tipping point where broader asset classes, participants, and use cases come on chain.

)Moody’s quotes industry leaders as saying broad asset tokenization is likely, but the timing and sequencing remain the big unknowns. In Moody’s words, “Across our conversations, industry leaders generally believed that broad asset tokenization will happen; the main uncertainties center around how quickly and in what sequence.”

)The report notes that near term progress is expected to be measured and focused on simpler segments—funds and short-term instruments—running in parallel with traditional processes. Yet, a growing cadre of market participants anticipates a point where adoption accelerates rapidly as infrastructure matures and more use cases prove viable, Moody’s said.

Tokenization — the on-chain representation of real-world assets or financial instruments — has long been cited as a foundational driver of institutional interest in blockchain and crypto. Moody’s underscores that, while the current activity remains modest, large banks and market intermediaries are actively building out capabilities to position themselves for a potential surge in demand. The report aligns with projections from analysts who see tokenization as a structural shift rather than a one-off trend.

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Key takeaways

  • Moody’s expects tokenization to proceed in a two-phase pattern: a gradual near-term ramp-up followed by a more rapid expansion as assets, markets, and participants come on chain.
  • The market for tokenized real-world assets has grown rapidly, rising more than 420% since the start of 2025 and reaching about $31.6 billion, according to RWA.xyz.
  • Institutional preparation is underway: virtually all large banks and major market intermediaries have created dedicated digital-asset teams and participate in pilots to test new infrastructure.
  • Moody’s identifies three potential trajectories for the financial system based on tokenization pace: steady growth, constrained growth, or rapid disruption if tokenization accelerates, with meaningful implications for incumbents.

Momentum, pilots, and the coming tipping point

Despite the current quiet phase, the cross-currents pushing tokenization forward are evident. Moody’s highlights ongoing industry pilots aimed at validating new settlement rails, custody, and interoperability across networks. These efforts are described as strategic, with incumbents aiming to be ready to serve clients who demand digital asset and digital money capabilities if demand expands rapidly.

The debate about timing sits alongside other macro- and regulatory considerations. In parallel, industry observers point to a broader capital allocation shift toward tokenized assets as a potential source of efficiency improvements and transparency in settlement and record-keeping. The adoption curve remains a focal point for investors watching how quickly tokenization can scale beyond niche use cases toward mainstream financial products.

Three possible futures for a tokenized financial system

Moody’s lays out a trio of potential outcomes, tied to how quickly tokenization captures momentum. The base case, described as steady growth, envisions tokenization scaling in select assets such as stablecoins and tokenized deposits, while core banking and asset-management ecosystems retain influence. This is the scenario Moody’s views as most likely.

In a low-growth path, regulatory friction, unresolved legal questions, and tepid end-user demand could restrict tokenization to narrow uses, leaving the broader financial system largely intact and tokenization gains minimal.

The most disruptive scenario imagines rapid growth, with widespread on-chain settlement enabled by tokenized assets and digital money. In such a world, incumbents like payment processors and certain traditional interfaces could lose revenue tied to settlement delays and siloed infrastructures, while deposits at smaller banks might come under pressure as flows rechannel onto digital rails.

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Industry voices outside Moody’s echo the sense that tokenization could reshape payments and settlement in meaningful ways. Macro investor Jordi Visser has suggested the tokenization reality could begin this year, highlighting the potential of tokenized assets to power more autonomous, AI-assisted payment flows. Meanwhile, international bodies have urged caution: the IMF has warned that tokenization can reduce friction and increase transparency, but also acknowledges the new risks it introduces for financial stability.

On the market-building side, demand signals are starting to coalesce around real-world assets and cross-border rails. The tokenization story intersects with the broader growth narrative around digital assets, with institutional interest sustained by pilots and strategic asset-token programs. Morgan Stanley’s ongoing crypto unit expansion, including leadership appointments and ETF/digital wallet initiatives announced earlier this year, illustrates how traditional banks are aligning with the tokenization narrative to capture a potential first-mover advantage in a more digitized financial system.

ARK Invest has positioned tokenized assets as a catalyst for a much larger digital assets market, with projections pointing toward a multi-trillion-dollar expansion by the end of the decade. While such forecasts are ambitious, the underlying premise remains: tokenization could unlock efficiencies and new liquidity pools that were previously inaccessible to traditional assets.

In regulatory and risk terms, observers will be watching how authorities balance innovation with stability. The IMF’s assessment underscores both opportunity and risk: tokenization can streamline finance, but it also demands robust oversight to avoid destabilizing side effects as on-chain markets scale.

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What this means for investors and market participants

For investors and builders, the Moody’s report offers a structured view of the ecosystem dynamics shaping tokenization’s path. The near-term emphasis on funds and short-term instruments suggests early-stage opportunities exist in familiar, regulated investment vehicles that can bridge traditional finance and digital rails. Yet the longer-term potential hinges on the maturation of infrastructure—custody, interoperability, and settlement—alongside clear regulatory guardrails that unlock cross-border applicability and consumer access.

As institutions continue to assemble digital-asset teams and participate in pilots, market participants should monitor the following developments:

  • Speed of expansion beyond niche asset classes into broader securities, funds, and possibly tokenized deposits.
  • The pace at which stablecoins and central-bank digital money concepts gain credibility as reliable on-chain settlement options.
  • Regulatory clarity and risk management frameworks that enable cross-border flows without compromising financial stability.
  • Evidence from pilots on interoperability and settlement efficiency that could translate into measurable cost savings and improved liquidity.

For readers tracking the arc of this transition, the next phases will hinge on real-world deployments and the outcomes of ongoing pilots across major banks and asset managers. The Morgan Stanley crypto unit developments, public-facing product initiatives, and the evolving stance of international bodies will be key indicators of whether tokenization moves from aspiration to widespread practice in the near term.

Further coverage from Moody’s, along with continued industry pilots and regulatory updates, will illuminate how quickly the tipping point may arrive and which segments stand to gain or recede as tokenization reshapes the financial landscape.

Readers should stay tuned for updates on grand-scale pilots, cross-border settlement experiments, and any regulatory milestones that could accelerate or slow the tokenization trajectory.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Alibaba (BABA) Stock Surges 8% on Cloud Dominance and AI Revenue Expansion

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BABA Stock Card

Quick Overview

  • Alibaba shares rallied over 8% on Wednesday following Q4 results, even though profits fell short of analyst projections.
  • A diplomatic visit by President Trump to China for discussions with President Xi Jinping boosted confidence in Chinese technology equities.
  • The presence of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang in the U.S. delegation sparked speculation about easing semiconductor trade restrictions.
  • Cloud computing revenue surged 38% year-over-year to $6.13 billion, while AI-driven products maintained triple-digit expansion for the 11th consecutive quarter.
  • CEO Eddie Wu projected that AI will account for more than 50% of Alibaba’s cloud revenue within the next 12 months.

Alibaba (BABA) shares concluded Wednesday’s session at $145.81, climbing more than 8%, despite delivering fourth-quarter financial results that fell short of analyst consensus estimates.


BABA Stock Card
Alibaba Group Holding Limited, BABA

The e-commerce giant’s shares initially slipped approximately 2% during pre-market hours immediately after the earnings announcement. However, sentiment reversed dramatically once regular trading commenced, fueled by encouraging geopolitical developments and impressive performance in cloud computing and artificial intelligence segments.

Fourth-quarter revenue increased 3% compared to the same period last year. The modest top-line growth reflected substantial capital allocation toward AI infrastructure, cloud platform expansion, and investments in Alibaba’s express delivery operations, which promise one-hour fulfillment for customers.

Despite falling short on earnings, market participants chose to overlook the temporary profitability challenges.

Diplomatic Developments Boost Investor Sentiment

A significant driver behind Wednesday’s stock performance was President Trump’s journey to China for bilateral discussions with President Xi Jinping. The high-stakes diplomatic engagement generated expectations that ongoing trade frictions between Washington and Beijing might begin to thaw.

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Adding to the positive atmosphere, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang accompanied the American delegation. Investors interpreted his participation as a constructive indication regarding potential progress on artificial intelligence chip commerce between the world’s two largest economies — a development that would directly advantage Chinese cloud computing and AI enterprises.

Any relaxation of current semiconductor export controls could provide substantial tailwinds for Alibaba and comparable companies as they continue expanding their AI capabilities.

Cloud Computing and Artificial Intelligence Remain Growth Engines

Cloud segment revenue skyrocketed 38% year-over-year to 41.63 billion yuan, approximately $6.13 billion. Revenue generated from third-party clients expanded 40%.

Artificial intelligence-focused offerings delivered triple-digit percentage growth for an impressive 11th straight quarter. Such sustained performance momentum carries significant weight, even when overall financial metrics disappoint.

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During the earnings conference call, CEO Eddie Wu informed analysts that Alibaba is transitioning its AI operations from the development phase into broader commercial deployment. Wu also projected that AI-related services will represent over half of total cloud revenue within the coming year.

The organization recently separated its artificial intelligence operations from the cloud computing division, naming Wu to lead the newly established Alibaba Token Hub business unit.

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Catherine Lim observed that Alibaba “effectively redeployed more than 90% of its March-quarter China e-commerce profit into Qwen user acquisition and adoption” — a spending trajectory anticipated to persist through fiscal 2027.

Alibaba confirmed its commitment to investing 380 billion yuan ($53 billion) in AI initiatives through 2027.

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Management also anticipates its rapid commerce division will achieve profitability by fiscal 2027.

Analyst sentiment toward the stock remains overwhelmingly positive. BABA holds a Strong Buy consensus rating, supported by 15 Buy recommendations and two Hold ratings issued over the past three months. The consensus price target stands at $186.32, suggesting approximately 30% appreciation potential from Wednesday’s closing price.

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Crude Oil Markets Navigate Geopolitical Tensions as Trump and Xi Hold High-Stakes Talks

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • Brent crude maintained levels between $105 and $106 per barrel following a decline exceeding 1% in the prior trading session
  • President Trump and President Xi convened in Beijing for more than two hours, expressing optimism regarding bilateral relations
  • Ongoing conflict with Iran has resulted in the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, eliminating approximately 6 million barrels daily from global supply
  • International Energy Agency forecasts persistent supply deficits in worldwide oil markets extending through most of 2026 regardless of conflict resolution timing
  • American crude inventories decreased by 4.3 million barrels during the previous week, exceeding market projections

Crude oil valuations maintained their position above the $100-per-barrel threshold on Thursday as energy traders monitored the inaugural session of a two-day diplomatic meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping taking place in the Chinese capital.

Brent crude futures fluctuated within a $105 to $106 range per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate contracts remained positioned between $100 and $102. Although both benchmark contracts experienced losses surpassing 1% during the preceding session, they continued to demonstrate substantial weekly appreciation.

[[IMG_2]]
Brent Crude Oil Last Day Financ (BZ=F)

The two leaders engaged in discussions lasting more than two hours on Thursday. Speaking to media representatives, Trump characterized the bilateral relationship as poised to become “better than ever before,” emphasizing the potential for a “fantastic future together.” According to Chinese official media outlets, Xi emphasized to Trump that maintaining stable US-China diplomatic ties was essential for worldwide stability.

Notwithstanding the constructive diplomatic rhetoric, energy markets maintained a measured stance. Market participants continued monitoring developments for indications regarding the Iranian situation, which has served as the primary catalyst behind elevated oil prices since military operations commenced in late February.

Iranian Conflict Sustains Supply Constraints

The ongoing hostilities have dramatically curtailed petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime passage accounting for approximately one-fifth of worldwide crude oil distribution. According to Energy Information Administration data, combined flows of crude petroleum and refined products through this strategic waterway declined by nearly 6 million barrels daily throughout the initial quarter.

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Although a ceasefire arrangement was implemented in early April, sporadic military engagements have persisted without achievement of a comprehensive peace settlement. Washington and Tehran have demonstrated minimal advancement toward bridging their diplomatic differences.

Satellite surveillance data cited by Bloomberg News indicates that Iran’s primary export facility at Kharg Island has recorded zero tanker operations across four consecutive observation intervals. Additionally, a United States naval enforcement operation targeting Iranian harbors has further diminished the nation’s crude petroleum exports.

The International Energy Agency issued warnings earlier this week projecting that worldwide petroleum markets will experience “severely undersupplied” conditions throughout the majority of 2026, even under scenarios where hostilities conclude as soon as next month.

OPEC revised downward its 2026 global petroleum demand growth projections, acknowledging the economic consequences of the military conflict and elevated energy costs, while maintaining its broader macroeconomic expansion estimates.

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American Inventory Levels and Sanctions Intensify Market Dynamics

United States crude petroleum reserves contracted by 4.3 million barrels throughout the previous week, substantially exceeding the 2 million barrel reduction anticipated by market analysts. Gasoline inventories similarly declined by 4.1 million barrels, signaling robust fuel consumption despite premium pricing.

Prior to the Beijing diplomatic engagement, Washington imposed additional sanctions targeting entities involved in facilitating Iranian petroleum transactions with China, Tehran’s principal crude oil purchaser. According to Trump, commercial negotiations were anticipated to dominate the agenda over Middle Eastern policy matters.

A sanctions exemption permitting Russian oil acquisitions is scheduled to terminate this weekend. This development places Indian refineries, ranking among the most significant consumers of Russian crude, in a precarious position. India has secured substantial volumes of Russian petroleum throughout the current month.

ING commodity analysts noted that market participants were closely scrutinizing the Trump-Xi diplomatic summit for evidence of advancement regarding the Iranian conflict. Rebecca Babin, a trader with CIBC Private Wealth Group, indicated that markets remain concentrated on determining when petroleum flows will recommence, despite continuously extending timelines.

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Earlier this week, Trump characterized the ceasefire arrangement as existing on “massive life support,” diminishing expectations for an expeditious resolution.

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Crypto policy ranks low among U.S. voters ahead of CLARITY Act vote

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Warsh Confirmation Vote Set for Wednesday

U.S. voters have placed everyday economic concerns far ahead of crypto regulation, even as lawmakers prepare for a Senate Banking Committee vote on the CLARITY Act this week.

Summary

  • Only 4% of Americans surveyed said a candidate’s crypto stance would influence their vote ahead of the 2026 midterms.
  • A Politico and Public First survey found that affordable housing, fraud protection, and lower bank fees ranked above crypto regulation among voter priorities.

According to a survey released Wednesday by Politico and polling firm Public First, only 4% of 2,035 U.S. adults said a political candidate’s stance on crypto policy would influence how they vote. Affordable housing, consumer fraud protection, and lower bank fees ranked as the top issues respondents wanted Congress to address.

Public First also found that just 18% of respondents viewed establishing rules for the crypto market as a top congressional priority. Regulation of large banks ranked slightly lower at 17%.

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Despite the low ranking among voters, crypto industry groups have continued pouring money into U.S. elections ahead of the 2026 midterms. Data compiled by researcher Molly White showed crypto lobby organizations spent more than $130 million during the 2024 election cycle and have already directed another $320 million toward influencing the November midterms.

Pressure campaigns against candidates seen as hostile to the industry have also intensified. According to the same data reviewed by Politico, crypto-backed groups spent more than $5.5 million targeting opposing candidates in congressional races in Illinois earlier this year.

Crypto remains a low priority for many voters

Within the same Public First survey, only 27% of respondents said they supported or strongly supported government efforts to legitimize crypto as a mainstream financial asset. Another 31% said they opposed or strongly opposed such measures.

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Republican Representative Dusty Johnson told Politico that digital assets still remain a niche issue for most voters, though he said interest has been growing gradually over time. Johnson added that people who care about crypto policy tend to care about it intensely.

Elsewhere in the poll, more than half of respondents said they had never traded crypto and would not consider doing so in the future. Only 19% said they had traded crypto, while 7% of crypto traders said a candidate’s crypto stance would directly affect their vote.

Risk appetite also appeared limited among respondents. Public First reported that 45% viewed crypto investing as a risk not worth taking, even if high returns were possible, while 25% said the potential rewards justified the risk.

The findings arrived less than a week after a separate HarrisX poll painted a different picture around crypto’s political influence. 

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That survey, conducted between May 1 and May 4 among 2,008 registered voters, found 52% supported the CLARITY Act and 47% said they would consider backing a candidate outside their preferred party if the candidate supported the legislation and their own party did not.

Among crypto users surveyed by HarrisX, support for crossing party lines rose to 72%. HarrisX also reported support for the bill from 58% of Republicans, 55% of Democrats, and 42% of independents.

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Bitcoin Firm Nakamoto Posts Q1 Net Loss as Revenue Grows Sixfold

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Crypto Breaking News

Nakamoto, a company focused on Bitcoin-centric businesses, reported a dramatic shift in its first quarter after two February acquisitions broadened its footprint across the Bitcoin ecosystem. The firm posted a 500% quarter-on-quarter surge in revenue for Q1, driven by the completed purchases of BTC Inc. and UTXO Management, even as it recorded a net loss of $238.8 million.

CEO David Bailey described the quarter as a “transformational period,” noting that the acquisitions, finalized by February 20, positioned Nakamoto for longer-term growth within the Bitcoin ecosystem. The quarterly revenue mix highlighted the company’s new diversified footprint: more than $1.1 million came from its Bitcoin treasury and derivatives strategy, about $800,000 from its media business, $500,000 from healthcare operations, and $200,000 from asset management services. Notably, the company did not acquire any new Bitcoin during the quarter, and instead sold 284 BTC on March 31 to help cover operating expenses.

The reported net loss was largely non-cash. A $107.7 million write-down tied to a pre-acquisition option and a $102.5 million mark-to-market loss on Nakamoto’s 5,058 BTC treasury contributed to the quarterly bottom line, as Bitcoin declined about 23% over the period. The broader Bitcoin treasury sector has faced headwinds, with Bitcoin off roughly 37% from its all-time high in recent months. Nakamoto has been among the hardest-hit among Bitcoin treasuries, with its share price down substantially from its peak. After the results were disclosed, Nakamoto shares rose in after-hours trading, gaining about 2.7% to roughly $0.18.

Key takeaways

  • Q1 revenue rose 500% quarter-on-quarter after the February closing of BTC Inc. and UTXO Management, with revenue composition leaning toward the newly integrated businesses.
  • The $238.8 million net loss was dominated by a $107.7 million non-cash pre-acquisition option write-down and a $102.5 million mark-to-market loss on a 5,058-BTC treasury as Bitcoin fell during the quarter.
  • Revenue sources in Q1 included more than $1.1 million from the Bitcoin treasury and derivatives program, $800,000 from media, $500,000 from healthcare, and $200,000 from asset management.
  • There was no new Bitcoin buying in the quarter; Nakamoto sold 284 BTC on March 31 to fund operations, reflecting ongoing balance-sheet management amid market volatility.
  • Looking ahead, the company aims to scale its operating businesses, expand revenue opportunities, and pursue capital allocation strategies tied to Bitcoin’s long-term value.

Nakamoto’s strategic expansion beyond a single business line

With BTC Inc. and UTXO Management positioned as foundational pillars, Nakamoto outlined a deliberate pivot toward building a multi-faceted Bitcoin platform. In the Q1 update, Bailey indicated that these two units would anchor the company’s longer-term growth, even though they contributed only part of the quarter’s revenue due to the February 20 close date. The acquisitions are framed not merely as bolt-on assets but as stepping stones to a more integrated Bitcoin economy playbook, spanning media, treasury management, and financial services tied to Bitcoin.

The leadership emphasized execution as the primary objective for 2026. Beyond topline growth, the management intends to scale its operating businesses, broaden revenue streams, and deliver durable shareholder value through disciplined capital allocation and a long-term conviction in Bitcoin’s fundamental role in digital finance. A notable element of this strategy is leveraging Nakamoto’s Bitcoin holdings as collateral to unlock yield from derivatives, effectively turning treasury assets into income-producing tools rather than passive reserves.

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Portfolio realignment and ongoing structural changes

Concurrent with its revenue and growth plans, Nakamoto signaled a wider internal realignment. The company plans to fully wind down its healthcare business by the end of Q2, shifting managerial and financial resources toward Bitcoin-related activities. This move follows the company’s January rebranding from KindlyMD after a merger with the Utah-based healthcare provider in August of the previous year. By concentrating on Bitcoin-centric operations, Nakamoto aims to reduce cross-industry drag and sharpen its focus on long-term value creation within the Bitcoin ecosystem.

On the structural front, the acquisitions of BTC Inc. and UTXO Management are described as foundational to the firm’s strategy, signaling a shift from a single-line revenue model to a diversified platform approach. The market response to the results—an after-hours gain despite a sizable quarterly loss—suggests investors are weighing the potential upside of a more integrated Bitcoin business, even as near-term profitability remains a work in progress in a volatile crypto backdrop.

The broader context remains challenging for Bitcoin treasuries. The sector has faced persistent pressure as Bitcoin’s price fluctuations complicate sustainable buy-and-hold strategies. Still, Nakamoto’s strategic repositioning could offer a case study in how diversified Bitcoin-adjacent operations may weather price volatility more effectively than a pure treasury approach alone.

While the quarter did not feature new Bitcoin accumulation, the company’s decision to monetize part of its holdings for operating costs underscores a pragmatic approach to balance-sheet management in a downturn. Investors will be watching whether the derivative-based income model can start contributing meaningfully to cash flow and whether the healthcare wind-down proceeds on schedule, freeing capital for the core Bitcoin-focused initiatives.

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In addition to describing the quarter’s mix, the update underlined a clear forward path: execute on 2026 plans, unlock additional revenue streams from the newly acquired units, and strengthen shareholder value through purposeful capital allocation. As Nakamoto progresses, the next several quarters will reveal whether the combination of treasury-driven yield strategies and a broader Bitcoin-focused platform can translate into durable earnings and a more stable equity trajectory.

Looking ahead, analysts and investors will want to monitor how Nakamoto ramps up its derivative programs, how effectively it monetizes its media and asset management capabilities, and how swiftly the wind-down of non-Bitcoin health operations frees up capital. The balance between the upside of a diversified Bitcoin ecosystem and the risk of continued volatility in crypto markets will shape how the market prices Nakamoto’s transformation in the near term.

In the near term, the market will also be watching how regulatory developments around crypto derivatives and treasury management might influence Nakamoto’s strategy. As the company leans more heavily on Bitcoin as collateral for yield-generating strategies, questions about risk management, accounting, and reporting will come to the fore. If Nakamoto can demonstrate a credible, repeatable model for generating revenue from a Bitcoin treasury while maintaining prudent risk controls, it could offer a template for other Bitcoin-centric businesses navigating a landscape of price swings and evolving regulatory expectations.

Readers should keep an eye on the company’s Q2 updates for progress on the healthcare wind-down, the pace of revenue growth from BTC Inc. and UTXO Management, and the real-world performance of its derivatives program as a core revenue driver. The story of Nakamoto’s evolution—from a focused treasury player to a broader Bitcoin ecosystem platform—rests on execution, capital discipline, and the ability to translate Bitcoin’s volatility into tangible shareholder value.

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As the quarter closes, the key question remains: can Nakamoto translate this transformational period into sustained earnings power? The coming quarters will show whether the company’s expanded footprint and new funding mechanisms can deliver on the promise implied by a 500% revenue surge in Q1, even as Bitcoin itself remains a volatile, price-sensitive asset.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bitcoin May Undo Rally After Hitting Resistance: CryptoQuant

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Bitcoin May Undo Rally After Hitting Resistance: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin is at risk of falling into a downtrend after its price hit a key historical “major bear market resistance level” based on its 200-day moving average, according to the crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant.

The cryptocurrency hit its 200-day moving average of $82,400 after rallying over six weeks since early April when it fell to $66,000, CryptoQuant said in a report on Wednesday.

“The 200-day MA [moving average] was a major resistance in the 2022 bear market: the price resumed its downward trend after hitting it in March of that year,” it said. “The current setup raises the question of whether history repeats.”

Several traders have recently forecast a Bitcoin rally if the US Senate moves forward with the long-awaited CLARITY Act, while others have pointed to additional money printing in the US as a tailwind for Bitcoin this year. CryptoQuant’s signals point to the opposite. 

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Adding to CryptoQuant’s bearish outlook, traders’ unrealized profit margins reached 17.7% on May 5, their highest level since June last year, which the firm said indicated “potential selling pressure to take profits.”

“These margin levels mirror those seen in March 2022, precisely when Bitcoin last tested the 200-day MA before resuming its decline,” CryptoQuant said.

Bitcoin has fallen 2.3% in the last 24 hours to $79,300 after enjoying a rally since early April as traders returned to riskier assets on potentially easing Middle East tensions.

Bitcoin has also become increasingly sensitive to the US economy as Wall Street adoption has grown, with its latest dip coming after the US Labor Department said Wednesday that producer prices jumped 1.4% in April, the biggest increase in four years and another sign of rising inflation.

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Source: CryptoQuant

Related: Whale shorts $70M in crypto and tech: Should Bitcoin traders worry?

Traders may have already started taking profits, as the report said daily realized profits jumped to their highest level since early December last week, with traders cashing out 14,600 Bitcoin, currently worth nearly $1.2 billion, on May 4.

“Historically, spikes of this magnitude in bear market rallies have preceded local price tops,” CryptoQuant said.

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It added that if Bitcoin falls, its current level of price support sits around $70,000, which is the average price at which all Bitcoin was last transacted.

“This level has historically acted as a key resistance-turned-support band during bear markets,” CryptoQuant said. “It represents the average cost basis of short-term traders and the level at which unrealized profit margins compress back toward zero, reducing the incentive for further selling.”

Other analysts have remained bullish on Bitcoin, with MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe posting on X on Wednesday that the cryptocurrency “might see a fast move” to $90,000 if the US Senate advances a long-awaited crypto bill dubbed the CLARITY Act.

Arthur Hayes, the investment chief of the crypto fund Maelstrom, said on Tuesday that Bitcoin retaking its all-time peak of $126,000 was a “foregone conclusion.” 

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He predicted that the war in Iran and competition between the US and China over artificial intelligence would lead the government to increase the money supply, causing inflation that would push traders toward Bitcoin.

Magazine: eToro founder timed Bitcoin top perfectly due to belief in 4-year cycles

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BTC ETFs lose $635 million in a single day. What next?

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Correlation between daily percent changes in BTC price and cumulative net inflow in ETFs. (SoSoValue, CoinDesk, Claude)

A key tailwind that supposedly powered bitcoin’s recent rise above $80,000 appears to be fading.

The 11 U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which pulled in $3.29 billion in investor money through March and April, are now leaking funds. And sizeable ones at that.

On Wednesday, investors yanked $635 million from these funds, the highest single-day net outflow since Jan. 29, according to data source SoSoValue. It wasn’t an isolated event either. Over the past five trading days, the ETFs have bled a total of $1.26 billion, pulling total net inflows since debut in January 2024 down to $58.5 billion from $59.76 billion a week ago.

Bitcoin has stopped rallying. Since last Wednesday, the upswing that carried prices from $65,000 to above $80,000 has stalled, with momentum running out of steam near the 200-day simple moving average positioned just above $82,000. In the past 24 hours, bitcoin has dropped over 2% to $79,400, with analysts attributing the loss to the resurgent inflation fears in the U.S., even though these macro developments have been largely shrugged off by Wall Street’s Nasdaq and S&P 500 equity index. Both these indices hit new highs on Wednesday.

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The $635 million outflow is not a number that bulls can easily dismiss, particularly since the strong inflows through March and April were widely hailed as bullish catalysts, and the macro picture is worsening due to rising inflation in the U.S.

“A persistently hot CPI, an incoming Fed under Warsh that markets read as more hawkish, or another oil shock can compress bitcoin even with positive net flows. From our perspective, the more useful question is not whether the markup leg continues, but whether macro conditions stay loose enough for the flows to do their work,” Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group, said. Tesseract has over $500 in assets under management.

Still, it’s worth noting that the relationship between ETF flows and bitcoin is not as straightforward as it once was. A correlation study offers a more data-driven lens on that.

Correlation between daily percent changes in BTC price and cumulative net inflow in ETFs. (SoSoValue, CoinDesk, Claude)

The 90-day rolling Pearson coefficient between bitcoin’s daily percentage return and the daily percentage change in cumulative net ETF inflows currently stands at just 0.16, statistically indistinguishable from zero and down from the peak of 0.68 in February.

In plain terms, knowing the direction in which ETF flows moved on any given day may not offer any cues about BTC’s price action. That said, large redemptions like the one seen on Wednesday still matter.

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BitGo Net Loss Widens to $60.7 Million Despite 112.6% Revenue Growth

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BitGo Net Loss Widens to $60.7 Million Despite 112.6% Revenue Growth

BitGo Holdings posted first-quarter 2026 revenue of $3.77 billion, more than doubling from a year earlier.

Yet, losses tied to Bitcoin (BTC) price swings and stock compensation pushed the digital asset custodian into the red.

BitGo Q1 Revenue Hits $3.77 Billion

BitGo’s Q1 filing attributed the 112.6% jump in top-line revenue to two main tailwinds: a pickup in digital asset sales volumes and a heavier contribution from Stablecoin-as-a-Service income compared with the same quarter a year ago.

Stablecoin-as-a-Service revenue rose 44% sequentially to $38.2 million, with the take rate improving to 7.4%. However, total revenue fell 38.7% sequentially.

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BitGo attributed the drop to softer crypto markets and a shift away from spot trading. The firm launched its derivatives offering in January, capturing roughly $3 billion in notional volume during the quarter.

“Because derivatives revenue is recognized on a net basis, while spot trading revenue is recognized on a gross basis, reported revenue comparisons to prior periods are not directly comparable,” the firm said.

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Meanwhile, Digital Asset Sales brought in roughly $3.7 billion, more than doubling from a year earlier with a 127.9% YoY gain, though the figure was 39.3% lower sequentially. 

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The Subscriptions and Services segment posted $25.6 million in revenue, edging up 11.3% YoY but slipping 34.8% from the previous quarter. Staking revenue fell 66.2% year over year to $49.4 million as token prices declined.

The firm’s net loss widened to $60.7 million from $25.7 million a year earlier. The figure also exceeds BitGo’s Q4 2025 net loss of $50 million. According to BitGo, this was,

“Primarily driven by non-cash mark-to-market impacts related to the Company’s Bitcoin treasury, as well as elevated IPO-related stock-based compensation expense. The Company expects stock-based compensation expense to normalize from Q1 20226 levels going forward.”

Adjusted EBITDA flipped to a $1.7 million loss from a $3.9 million gain in Q1 2025. The client base grew 42% year over year, while cash and equivalents totaled $186.6 million. The results mark the company’s second earnings release since its January debut on the NYSE.

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Prediction markets get CFTC relief as legal battles widen

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CFTC fires back as states target prediction markets

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s staff issued no-action relief for fully collateralized event contracts. 

Summary

  • CFTC eased swap data reporting duties for fully collateralized event contracts listed on regulated exchanges.
  • Relief covers DCMs, DCOs and market participants, with future applicants getting a streamlined approval process.
  • The move arrives as prediction market platforms fight state gambling regulators in several courts nationwide.

The move covers certain swap data reporting and recordkeeping duties tied to contracts listed by designated contract markets and cleared by derivatives clearing organizations.

The relief means staff will not recommend enforcement against DCMs, DCOs or participants for failing to meet selected swap reporting rules, as long as they follow the terms in the staff letter. The CFTC said the approach responds to many requests from firms listing and clearing event contracts.

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Moreover, the new letter also creates a cleaner path for future applicants. Entities that want to list or clear similar contracts can seek the same no-action position, and the CFTC can add them to an appendix rather than issue another full letter each time.

Staff said the position also covers earlier beneficiaries of similar no-action letters. The letter says this approach should give similar treatment to current and future market participants while the agency considers broader rulemaking for event contract reporting.

Prediction market oversight remains contested

The relief comes as prediction markets face state-level legal fights. Earlier coverage from crypto.news reported that the CFTC backed Kalshi in an Ohio appeal, arguing that state officials treated federally regulated event contracts too narrowly as sports gambling.

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In addition, CFTC has also challenged state actions in Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New York and Wisconsin. Court protection in Arizona supported federal oversight of CFTC-regulated prediction markets while cases continue.

Market growth adds pressure for clear rules

The timing matters because prediction markets are growing quickly. Separate market coverage reported that Kalshi reached a $22 billion valuation after a $1 billion Series F round, while annualized trading volume on the platform rose from $52 billion to $178 billion in six months.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said “event contracts could become a trillion-dollar market.” That claim remains forward-looking, but it shows why regulators, exchanges and state officials are paying closer attention to reporting, supervision and legal boundaries.

The CFTC’s latest step does not decide every dispute over event contracts. It focuses on how certain fully collateralized contracts are reported and recorded. Still, it gives DCMs, DCOs and participants a more uniform process as the agency works on broader rules.

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For crypto-linked prediction markets, the letter adds another federal signal. Platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase and Crypto.com remain part of a wider debate over whether these products are financial contracts, betting products, or both under different legal frameworks.

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Top Privacy Cryptocurrencies for 2026: Analyzing Monero, Zcash, and Dash

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Monero (XMR) Price

Key Takeaways

  • Increasing worries about blockchain transparency and Know Your Customer (KYC) requirements are driving renewed interest in privacy-focused cryptocurrencies
  • Monero enforces complete transaction anonymity by default, establishing it as the leading privacy cryptocurrency while attracting the most regulatory scrutiny
  • Zcash surged past $585 in 2026 following Multicoin Capital’s disclosure of a significant investment on May 6
  • Dash functions primarily as a payment-focused cryptocurrency with optional privacy capabilities rather than a dedicated privacy solution
  • Regulatory challenges pose the greatest threat to all three cryptocurrencies, with multiple jurisdictions already implementing delisting measures

Privacy-oriented cryptocurrencies are experiencing a resurgence in investor attention throughout May. Escalating anxieties surrounding financial monitoring, increasingly stringent exchange regulations, and sophisticated blockchain analysis tools are driving crypto enthusiasts toward digital assets offering enhanced transactional confidentiality.

Contrasting with Bitcoin or Ethereum, where every transaction remains permanently visible on public ledgers, privacy coins employ specialized cryptographic techniques to obscure transaction information. These technologies can mask the sending party, receiving party, and transferred amounts.

This cryptocurrency category remains divisive. Financial regulators and trading platforms have approached privacy coins cautiously, contending that they complicate compliance obligations. Advocates counter with a fundamental question: if physical currency transactions enjoy privacy, shouldn’t digital alternatives offer the same?

Three cryptocurrencies deserve particular attention this month: Monero, Zcash, and Dash. Each implements distinct privacy methodologies and presents unique risk considerations.

Monero: Mandatory Anonymity with Maximum Regulatory Exposure

Monero stands as the most recognized privacy cryptocurrency. Anonymity functions as a fundamental network characteristic — every transaction maintains privacy automatically, with no mechanism for public visibility.

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Monero (XMR) Price
Monero (XMR) Price

The protocol employs ring signatures, stealth addresses, and confidential transaction technology to conceal senders, recipients, and transaction values. This architecture represents the most comprehensive implementation of compulsory transaction privacy in cryptocurrency.

Monero doesn’t attempt to compete as a smart contract platform or comprehensive payment network. Its purpose remains straightforward: functioning as untraceable digital currency.

This singular focus has cultivated one of cryptocurrency’s most dedicated communities. User demand for private transactions may intensify as surveillance concerns escalate.

The primary vulnerability involves regulatory intervention. Nations including Japan, South Korea, India, and various European jurisdictions have already imposed restrictions on privacy coins through regulated exchanges. Monero consistently faces the earliest regulatory action.

Zcash: Zero-Knowledge Technology with Growing Institutional Backing

Zcash implements an alternative methodology. The protocol permits both public and private transactions, offering user choice rather than mandating universal privacy.

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Zcash (ZEC) Price
Zcash (ZEC) Price

Its privacy infrastructure relies on zero-knowledge proof cryptography, enabling transaction verification without exposing underlying transaction details.

Throughout 2026, Zcash has emerged as a closely monitored privacy asset following Multicoin Capital’s announcement of a substantial holding on May 6. The cryptocurrency reached a 2026 peak exceeding $585 immediately afterward.

This development carries significance because privacy cryptocurrencies have traditionally attracted primarily retail investment. Institutional participation transforms the market narrative and indicates some professional investors view privacy as a broader digital rights or infrastructure investment theme.

Zcash may also attract investors seeking privacy sector exposure while preferring an asset with optional transparency features, facilitating discussions in regulated environments.

The principal concern involves actual usage patterns. If most participants continue using transparent transactions, the practical privacy advantage diminishes considerably.

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Dash: Payment Functionality with Secondary Privacy Features

Dash originated as a privacy-centered Bitcoin derivative but subsequently pivoted toward rapid digital payment processing. Its PrivateSend functionality employs CoinJoin-style transaction mixing, which provides limited privacy but differs fundamentally from Monero’s comprehensive default model or Zcash’s zero-knowledge proof architecture.

This characterization positions Dash less as a dedicated privacy cryptocurrency and more as a payment-focused asset with supplementary privacy capabilities.

This strategic positioning can prove advantageous in certain markets. Its payment-centric identity resonates more clearly with investors, and it has historically attracted users prioritizing transaction speed and reduced fees.

Dash appeared among the sector’s strongest performers when privacy tokens outpaced the broader market earlier this year, according to CoinDesk.

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The vulnerability lies in Dash’s ambiguous positioning. It may lack sufficient privacy features for strict anonymity advocates, yet its privacy associations can still trigger challenges on regulated trading platforms.

Concluding Analysis

Monero represents the most uncompromising privacy implementation. Zcash delivers advanced zero-knowledge proof technology alongside increasing institutional validation. Dash provides payment utility with moderate privacy functionality.

The opportunity remains consistent across all three: if concerns regarding surveillance and exchange restrictions intensify, privacy-focused cryptocurrencies could experience renewed demand.

The risk appears equally apparent: regulatory intervention. Exchange availability for privacy coins can shift rapidly, and this sector remains among cryptocurrency’s most politically sensitive categories.

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New York court pauses decision on Aave’s $71M ETH recovery request

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Aave price bleeds quietly as DeFi’s blue chips are sold to feed new fads

A New York federal judge has postponed a decision on Aave’s request to release $71 million in frozen Ethereum tied to the Kelp DAO exploit, ordering both sides to submit additional legal arguments before a June hearing.

Summary

  • A New York judge delayed a ruling on Aave’s bid to release $71 million in frozen ETH tied to the Kelp DAO exploit.
  • The court asked Aave and Gerstein Harrow LLP to submit additional legal arguments before a June 5 hearing.

According to filings submitted Wednesday in the Southern District of New York, Judge Margaret M. Garnett said Aave LLC had not sufficiently explained how “compounding losses” to users would occur if the restraining notice on the funds remained active. The judge scheduled another hearing for June 5 and directed both parties to file supplemental briefs by May 22.

At the center of the dispute is 30,765 ETH that Arbitrum’s Security Council froze on April 21 after tracing the assets to the April 18 Kelp DAO exploit. 

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The attack targeted Kelp’s LayerZero-powered bridge and allowed hackers to mint unbacked rsETH, which was later used as collateral on Aave v3 to borrow an estimated $230 million in wrapped ETH. Earlier reports tied the exploit to roughly $190 million in bad debt across DeFi lending markets.

Earlier this month, Gerstein Harrow LLP secured court approval to serve a restraining notice on Arbitrum DAO. The law firm represents families holding about $877 million in unpaid terrorism judgments against North Korea and argued the frozen ETH should be treated as DPRK-linked property because blockchain analytics firms associated the exploit with the Lazarus Group. No court has formally determined that North Korea or Lazarus carried out the attack.

Aave pushed back against that argument in an emergency filing on May 4. Its lawyers argued that stolen crypto does not become the legal property of a thief simply because it passed through attacker-controlled wallets. The company also warned that extended restrictions on the ETH could hurt affected users and interfere with recovery efforts tied to rsETH.

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Court asks for clarification on ownership and creditor claims

In her latest order, Judge Garnett acknowledged the risks facing Aave users but said the legal questions raised by the dispute require deeper examination. The court asked both sides to address six specific issues, including whether New York’s shelter principle applies to the hacking transactions, how theft differs from fraud under the relevant law, and whether the hackers ever gained a recognizable ownership interest in the stolen assets.

Additional questions focused on creditor priority rights over the frozen ETH and whether a constructive trust could be used to return funds proportionally to affected users. Judge Garnett also asked whether Aave or Arbitrum can identify individual victims well enough to support a pro rata distribution plan.

Days before the latest order, Judge Garnett modified an earlier freeze to allow an Arbitrum governance proposal tied to the recovery effort to continue moving through on-chain voting. The proposal, introduced on May 12, would transfer the 30,765 ETH from Arbitrum’s Security Council wallet to an address controlled by Aave LLC.

While the judge permitted governance participants to proceed without personal liability under the restraining notice, the court preserved the plaintiffs’ legal claim over the ETH. Aave, therefore, cannot freely use the assets until the dispute is resolved.

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Elsewhere in the recovery effort, Aave and Kelp DAO said Tuesday they had taken steps to restore rsETH backing. The attacker’s rsETH on Arbitrum has already been burned, while nearly $278 million worth of replacement assets is expected to be restored over the next two weeks through funds managed by the Aave Recovery Guardian multisignature wallet.

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