But economists warn of potential recession ahead as the impact of the Middle East conflict deepens

The UK economy maintained its upward trajectory in March, with growth surpassing expectations, according to official figures, though the data may represent the calm before the storm in the months ahead.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that GDP growth stood at 0.3 per cent in March, contributing to overall growth of 0.6 per cent across the first quarter.

The services sector expanded by 0.8 per cent in the first quarter, while production edged up 0.2 per cent and construction rose by 0.4 per cent.

“Growth picked up in the first quarter of the year, led by broad-based increases across the services sector,” said Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS.

“Within that wholesale, computer programming and advertising performed particularly well.”, as reported by City AM.

The latest figures cover the first month of the Iran war, with data from April onwards expected to lay bare the economic damage caused by a collapse in global trade following disruption across the Strait of Hormuz.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said “now is not the time to put our economic stability at risk” following the release of the figures.

“Today’s figures show the government has the right economic plan,” Reeves said.

“The choices I have made as Chancellor mean our economy is in a stronger position as we deal with the costs of the war in Iran.

“This government is getting on with the job of building an economy that is stronger, more resilient, and prepared for the future.” Shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride said: “The chaos surrounding the Labour leadership is destabilising Britain’s economy.”

Projections for UK economic growth in 2026 have been cut. Capital Economics deputy chief UK economist Ruth Gregory stated that “prolonged political instability” represented an “extra downside risk” to forecasts.

“We would be very surprised if growth doesn’t weaken from May as the temporary boost from stockpiling unwinds and the squeeze on households’ real incomes from higher energy prices intensifies,” Gregory said.

“In our adverse scenario, the economy suffers a mild recession. So the economy will probably give whoever is Prime Minister a rough ride.”

Energy markets have been in upheaval since the outbreak of war, with Brent crude jumping by around 50 per cent since March amid concerns over ongoing supply disruption.

Economists have cautioned that the UK could face more severe consequences than other advanced economies as a net energy importer.

Elevated import costs are likely to filter through to inflation while weakening global demand could impact exports and suppress growth.

The Treasury will be reviewing the data before announcing an energy support package for businesses and consumers.

Survey data has revealed that consumer confidence has dropped sharply since the war commenced. Business investment, which had displayed tentative signs of recovery earlier in the year, is widely anticipated to stagnate as bosses await clarity.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is also grappling with the question of whether she could retain her role under a new Labour leader, should Sir Keir Starmer be forced out.

Bond traders are anticipating a shift to the left within the government, one that would result in fiscal rules being relaxed and Labour’s growth strategy being cast aside.

Starmer has previously pledged to remain as leader, citing geopolitical instability as a key factor weighing on the UK economy.

Following the King’s Speech on Tuesday, he declared he would “tear down” the status quo and pledged a “radical agenda” in a bid to reassure restless backbenchers.

Operator

Thank you for standing by. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Co-Diagnostics, Inc. First Quarter 2026 Earnings Webcast. [Operator Instructions]

I would now like to turn the conference over to Andrew Benson, Head of Investor Relations. The floor is yours.

Andrew Benson
Head of Investor Relations

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you all for participating in today’s conference call. On the line today from Co-Diagnostics, we have Dwight Egan, Chief Executive Officer; and Brian Brown, Chief Financial Officer.

Earlier today, Co-Diagnostics released financial results from the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is available on the company’s website. We will begin with management’s prepared remarks and then open up the call to analysts for Q&A.

Before we begin, we would like to inform listeners that certain statements made by Co-Diagnostics during this call, which are not historical facts, are forward-looking statements. In addition to diagnostic test developments and timing for commencement of clinical evaluations, this includes statements concerning the company’s Co-Dx PCR testing platform, which requires regulatory approval and marketing authorization for diagnostic use and is not currently for sale. Actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or implied in any statement.

Important factors which could cause actual results to differ materially from those in these forward-looking statements are detailed in Co-Diagnostics’ filings with the SEC. Co-Diagnostics assumes no obligation and expressly disclaims any duty to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances occurring after this call

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

The Cwm Ifor Solar Farm is expected generating clean power at the end of the year

Caerphilly County Borough Council has sold its Cwm Ifor Solar Farm to one of UK’s fastest-growing energy suppliers Fuse Energy.

The 20 megawatt consented solar farm, which at capacity will generate enough clean energy to power approximately 6,000 homes annually, is expected to be connected to the National Grid in December. Work started last month.

Savills Earth Capital Advisory (SECA advised the local authority of the disposal of the scheme near Caerphilly. The value of the deal has not been disclosed.

READ MORE: Two prime Cardiff office buildings acquired in major investment dealREAD MORE: Huge investment plans revealed by Welsh steelmaker

Amanda McConnell, Caerphilly Council’s cabinet member for climate change, said:, “This agreement is an important step in tackling the climate emergency and increasing renewable energy in Caerphilly. The Cwm Ifor Solar Farm could power around 6,000 homes with clean electricity, while supporting a more flexible and resilient energy system. We’re pleased to be working with Fuse Energy to bring this project forward and deliver lasting environmental and economic benefits for our communities.”

Henry Grant, director, Savills Earth Capital Advisory, said; “We’re pleased to have supported the local authority with this transaction. Investor appetite for solar remains strong as these projects continue to play a critical role in accelerating the UK’s transition to a low carbon energy system.”

The acquisition expands Fuse Energy’s growing renewable portfolio with a current 1GW pipeline across solar and wind projects. It plans to develop Cwm Ifor using in-house engineering, procurement and construction. A previous solar project was recently completed by the company at a 30% lower cost per MW peak than industry average.

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in GT over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

NEW YORK — World oil prices remained elevated above $105 per barrel on Thursday, May 14, 2026, as ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, continued to support the market even as investors awaited outcomes from the high-stakes summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, traded near $105.50 per barrel in early European trading, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark, hovered around $101 per barrel. Both contracts have stayed in elevated territory throughout 2026, reflecting persistent supply concerns and strong global demand despite economic uncertainties in some regions.

The primary driver remains the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which nearly 20% of global oil supply flows. Since military actions began in late February, shipping traffic has been severely restricted, leading to significant supply disruptions and a sharp drawdown in global inventories. Analysts at S&P Global estimate that inventories have fallen by an average of 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, pushing prices higher and creating a risk premium in the market.

The Trump-Xi summit has added another layer of uncertainty and potential relief. Trump is pressing China, Iran’s largest oil customer, to use its influence to help stabilize energy flows. Any positive developments from Beijing could ease pressure on prices, but analysts caution that a quick resolution to the Hormuz situation remains unlikely. “The market is pricing in prolonged disruption,” said one senior energy trader. “Even optimistic scenarios suggest it will take time for flows to normalize.”

U.S. production has provided some buffer. Domestic output remains near record levels, helping to offset some global tightness. However, OPEC+ members have maintained disciplined production cuts, limiting additional supply to the market. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers continue to prioritize price stability over volume in the current environment.

Demand remains robust despite higher prices. Strong economic activity in Asia, particularly in India and parts of Southeast Asia, has supported consumption. China’s stimulus measures have helped stabilize industrial activity, though the country’s overall economic recovery remains uneven. Global oil demand is projected to average around 103 million barrels per day in 2026, according to the International Energy Agency, with transportation fuels and petrochemicals driving growth.

For American consumers, the impact is noticeable at the pump. National average gasoline prices have climbed above $4.00 per gallon in many regions, adding pressure on household budgets ahead of the summer driving season. Refiners have warned that prolonged high crude costs could lead to further increases if inventory levels tighten further.

Energy companies have benefited from the elevated price environment. Major producers have reported strong earnings, with many using the windfall to pay down debt, increase dividends and invest in low-carbon technologies. Oilfield service companies have also seen renewed demand, though the focus remains on efficiency and capital discipline rather than aggressive expansion.

The Trump administration has used the situation to push for increased domestic production and streamlined permitting for energy projects. Officials argue that boosting U.S. output can help stabilize global markets and reduce reliance on foreign supplies. However, environmental groups and some Democrats in Congress have criticized the approach, calling for faster transition to renewable energy sources.

Longer-term forecasts suggest prices could remain elevated through the remainder of 2026. Standard Chartered and other banks project Brent averaging between $100 and $110 per barrel for the year, assuming the Hormuz situation persists into the third quarter. A full resolution could bring prices back toward $80-$90, but most analysts see limited downside risk in the near term.

Investors have responded with caution. Energy stocks have outperformed broader markets in 2026 but remain sensitive to any diplomatic breakthroughs or sudden supply increases. Volatility in oil futures has increased, with traders positioning for potential swings around the Trump-Xi meetings and other geopolitical developments.

The situation also highlights the interconnected nature of global energy markets. Europe, still recovering from earlier energy shocks, has increased imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas and other alternatives. Asia’s reliance on Middle Eastern crude makes it particularly vulnerable to disruptions in the region.

As the Trump-Xi summit continues, any signals regarding Iran or energy cooperation could move markets significantly. For now, the combination of tight supply, strong demand and geopolitical risk keeps oil prices firmly in elevated territory, affecting everything from gasoline prices to inflation expectations worldwide.

The coming days and weeks will be critical in determining whether current levels prove sustainable or if new developments bring relief to consumers and businesses. Until then, the world remains on edge, watching both the oil markets and the diplomatic efforts in Beijing for clues about the path ahead.