Polygon price crashed and erased all the gains it made earlier this year despite its strong fundamentals, including its growing market share in the payment industry and its growing burn rate.

Polygon (POL), whose ticker was previously known as MATIC, was trading at $0.095, down sharply from the year-to-date high of $0.1853. It remains much lower than its all-time high.

POL price crash coincided with the ongoing crypto market dip that has affected Bitcoin and most altcoins. It also happened as Vitalik Buterin criticized layer-2 network. He believes that these networks will likely struggle in the future as Ethereum has largely solved some of the scaling challenges it had in the past.

Ethereum is now substantially faster than it was a few years and its upcoming upgrades will make it faster. Also, its transaction costs have continued falling in the past few years.

Buterin believes that layer-2 networks that will survive are those that will solve key challenges and focus on key niches. Polygon has largely succeeded in this by focusing on the payment industry. 

For example, data shows that it has the second-highest monthly USDC addresses after Solana. Its stablecoin P2P transfer volume has jumped to over $39 billion. The top players using its chain are Tazapay, which handled over $687 million in January. 

Revolut handled over $50 million, while Stripe, Paxos, Moonpay, and Avenia Pay handled millions of dollars in volume. These networks will likely continue experiencing more volume in the near term, benefiting Polygon.

The rising growth, together with its strong market share in the predictions market, has led to a surge in network fees. Data compiled by Nansen shows that its network fees jumped by double digits, while the burn rate has soared in the past few months.

Polygon price technical analysis 

The daily timeframe chart shows that the POL price has retreated sharply in the past few weeks, moving from a high of $0.1853 in January to a low of $0.0841 last week. This drop coincided with the broader crypto market crash.

POL price has formed a double-bottom pattern, whose neckline is at $0.1853. A double-bottom is one of the most common bullish reversal signs in technical analysis.

Therefore, the most likely POL price prediction is bullish, with the initial target being at $0.1500, which is about 57% above the current level. A drop below the key support level at $0.0845 will invalidate the bullish outlook and point to more downside.

The crypto sector is bracing for a wave of consolidation as larger players gear up to absorb smaller projects, a shift that could reshape the landscape over the coming months. In an appearance on CNBC, Tom Farley, the former NYSE president and current CEO of Bullish, argued that the industry is entering a phase reminiscent of traditional financial markets where fragmentation gives way to scale through acquisitions. He pointed to a marked downturn in crypto prices, noting that Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has fallen roughly 45% from its October peak of $126,100 and was hovering near $69,405 at the time of reporting, according to CoinMarketCap. Farley framed the pullback as a catalyst for consolidation rather than a mere cycle. He stressed that consolidation should have happened earlier, but inflated valuations helped sustain a veneer of optimism. “It should have happened a year or two ago,” he told CNBC, underscoring that the sector’s fortunes are likely to hinge on the ability of firms to merge, scale, and operationalize.

Key takeaways

• Major crypto firms are expected to accelerate acquisitions to achieve scale, reducing sector fragmentation in the coming quarters.
• The current price downturn is described as a catalyst for consolidation, not a sign of systemic weakness.
• Valuations from the late-stage hype era are receding; buyers will prioritise revenue generation and long-term viability over speculative promise.
• Venture capital has grown more selective, with investors favoring mature, revenue-oriented projects and tighter due diligence.
• Consolidation could bring redundancies and organizational disruption as portfolios merge and strategic priorities reshuffle.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Market context: The pullback in crypto prices coincides with a maturation of the market, a period in which capital begins to reward scalable, revenue-backed business models. Investors and strategists alike are watching whether consolidation will unlock synergies, reduce duplication, and create more defensible platforms amid a challenging macro backdrop and evolving regulatory considerations.

Why it matters

For investors, the shift toward consolidation could recalibrate risk and reward in the sector. Entities that survive the purge—those with clear paths to profitability, diversified products, and integrated operations—stand to gain greater market share and pricing power as competition contracts. This is not merely about absorbing idle projects; it is about creating platforms capable of attracting institutional-grade capital and sustaining longer-term growth even as market cycles ebb and flow.

From a builder’s perspective, the emphasis on scale and sustainability will push teams to prioritize product integration, interoperability, and go-to-market execution. Rather than chasing a flashy new product with limited traction, startups and incumbents alike may seek partnerships, platform consolidations, and joint ventures that accelerate product roadmaps and user acquisition. That strategic shift could reshape funding dynamics, with investors favoring businesses that demonstrate measurable user adoption, revenue growth, and a clear path to profitability.

Analysts point to the broader maturation of crypto finance, where competitive advantages increasingly accrue to firms that can operate at scale, manage risk effectively, and offer diversified ecosystems. The trajectory mirrors patterns seen in other tech sectors, where consolidation follows cycles of hype and valuation inflation. The ongoing discussion about venture capital discipline—highlighted by Ajna Capital’s chief investment officer, Eva Oberholzer, who described a tightening in crypto-dedicated funding—underscores a measured, quality-focused approach to new investments (via the linked coverage). Investors are increasingly skeptical of entities with only a spark of potential and no robust business model to translate that potential into durable revenues. A comprehensive view from market watchers and researchers, including analyses that discuss how retail investors interpret downturns, further reinforces the idea that the market is shifting toward more disciplined, evidence-based evaluation of projects and teams (Santiment).

Against this backdrop, observers caution that consolidation can be a double-edged sword. While it may eliminate redundant offerings and sharpen competitive dynamics, it can also precipitate layoffs and internal disruption as merged entities realign priorities and streamline operations. The risk is especially pronounced for smaller teams whose business models hinge on niche deployments or speculative demand. Yet proponents argue that a more consolidated landscape could enhance resilience, improve risk management, and foster stronger governance across a sector that has, at times, struggled with fragmentation and fragmentation-related inefficiencies.

As Farley noted in his CNBC remarks, the market’s current volatility creates a window for consolidation to take hold while the sector adjusts to a more sober valuation regime. The broader crypto community continues to weigh the pace and breadth of consolidation, balancing the potential benefits of scale against the human and organizational costs of large-scale mergers. The conversation also intersects with ongoing analyses from researchers and commentators who monitor how sentiment, regulatory changes, and macro liquidity influence consolidation activity and the pace of innovation within crypto ecosystems.

What to watch next

• Announcements of mergers or strategic partnerships among major crypto exchanges, wallets, or infrastructure providers in the coming quarters.
• Shifts in venture capital patterns toward mature, revenue-positive crypto initiatives and away from speculative, early-stage bets.
• Regulatory developments that clarify how competition and consolidation should be managed in crypto markets.
• Reorganizations or workforce changes within consolidating firms as strategies are realigned to capitalize on scale.

Sources & verification

• CNBC interview with Tom Farley discussing consolidation in crypto and the role of price pressures in catalyzing deals (YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OPn8-Juhyo).
• Bitcoin price reference and market data (CoinMarketCap): https://coinmarketcap.com/.
• Ajna Capital commentary on venture capital discipline and market maturation (Cointelegraph).
• Santiment analysis piece on crypto market behavior during the downturn (Cointelegraph).

Market reaction and consolidation in a maturing crypto landscape

The discussion surrounding consolidation centers on a simple premise: scale matters more than ever in a sector attempting to transition from a volatile early-stage market to a more mature, revenue-centric industry. As Farley argued on CNBC, the downturn has exposed the inefficiencies that plagued a number of crypto ventures, where inflated expectations outpaced actual business traction. The reality, he suggested, is that many entities do not possess independent, durable business models and will need to merge with larger players to survive and thrive. This echoed sentiment from industry observers who have long argued that valuation bubbles and revenue misalignment fuel unsustainable growth trajectories, and it is now driving a pragmatic approach to dealmaking across the sector.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has been emblematic of the cycle, retreating from its October peak near $126,100 to the vicinity of $69,405, illustrating how market-wide valuations influence corporate strategy as much as they do investor sentiment. The decline has not only re-priced risk but also intensified the focus on cash flow, customer acquisition, and the ability to convert users into recurring revenue streams. In this environment, consolidation could unlock efficiencies—such as shared technology stacks, consolidated compliance frameworks, and integrated go-to-market motions—that help firms weather volatility and pursue longer-term objectives. Yet the path to consolidation is not guaranteed to be smooth; it may trigger redundancies, realign product portfolios, and set off internal restructuring as newly merged entities consolidate operations and governance.

Industry observers also highlight a broader trend: investors are recalibrating expectations. The crypto market’s maturation is accompanied by a shift in venture capital discipline. Eva Oberholzer, chief investment officer at Ajna Capital, told Cointelegraph that the market has reached a stage where risk appetite is tempered by a preference for measurable progress and sustainable growth. This shift aligns with a more cautious but potentially more durable investment climate, where teams must demonstrate traction and a clear path to profitability to attract sustained funding. Meanwhile, industry analyses have emphasized the importance of understanding market dynamics during downturns, with researchers and commentators tracking how retail and institutional participants interpret price movements and project fundamentals during cyclical declines. The synthesis of these perspectives suggests a sector increasingly governed by fundamentals, governance, and scalable business models rather than aspirational narratives alone.

Looking ahead, the landscape may continue to evolve as consolidation takes hold, testing the resilience of teams, products, and platforms. The potential benefits—reduced duplication, stronger balance sheets, and enhanced platform capabilities—must be weighed against the practical challenges of combining cultures, harmonizing technology, and preserving employee morale. As the next wave of deals unfolds, market participants, builders, and regulators will closely monitor how mergers reshape competition, liquidity, and consumer trust within the crypto economy. The ultimate measure will be whether the sector can sustain innovation while delivering durable value to users and investors alike.

Sources & verification items to verify include the CNBC interview with Tom Farley, BTC price data from CoinMarketCap, Ajna Capital’s commentary on market maturation, and Santiment’s analyses cited in industry coverage.

TLDR:

• Tether assisted Turkish authorities in freezing $544 million in crypto linked to betting schemes. 
• Stablecoin issuer has supported over 1,800 law enforcement cases across 62 countries worldwide. 
• Tether has frozen a total of $3.4 billion in illicit USDT through global cooperation efforts. 
• Turkish probe targets Darkex platform owner accused of providing crypto infrastructure for betting.

Tether assisted Turkish authorities in freezing approximately $544 million in cryptocurrency assets tied to illegal betting operati

The stablecoin issuer acted on requests from law enforcement investigating money laundering schemes. 

The frozen funds represent one of Turkey’s largest crypto-related seizures to date. Tether simultaneously disclosed its involvement in over 1,800 cases across 62 countries. 

The company has frozen a total of $3.4 billion in illicit USDT through global law enforcement collaborations.

Tether’s Expanding Role in Global Law Enforcement

Tether’s cooperation with Turkish officials highlights the company’s growing partnership with international authorities. 

The stablecoin issuer provided technical assistance to freeze wallets connected to unauthorized betting platforms. 

This intervention prevented suspects from moving potentially laundered cryptocurrency to other addresses. 

The action demonstrates how blockchain transparency enables rapid response to criminal investigations.

The $544 million seizure in Turkey forms part of a broader enforcement pattern. Tether has developed protocols for responding to legitimate law enforcement requests worldwide. 

These procedures allow authorities to immobilize USDT holdings linked to suspected criminal activity. The company maintains compliance teams dedicated to processing such requests efficiently.

Across 62 countries, Tether has supported more than 1,800 criminal investigations. The cases span various categories including fraud, money laundering, and illicit marketplace operations. 

The $3.4 billion in frozen USDT reflects the scale of detected criminal activity. This figure represents cumulative freezes executed over multiple years of cooperation.

The stablecoin issuer’s transparency measures contrast with criticisms often directed at cryptocurrency platforms. 

By maintaining the ability to freeze addresses, Tether provides law enforcement with tools unavailable in truly decentralized systems. 

This capability has made USDT a cooperative asset in criminal investigations. Authorities can trace and halt illicit fund movements more effectively than with privacy-focused cryptocurrencies.

Turkish Investigation Targets Crypto-Enabled Betting Networks

The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office identified the frozen assets as belonging to illegal betting operations. Authorities targeted Seref Yazici, owner of the Dubai-based Darkex cryptocurrency platform. 

The exchange operated in Turkey without licensing from the Capital Markets Board. Turkish regulators blocked access to Darkex in September 2025.

MASAK, Turkey’s Financial Crimes Investigation Board, accused Yazici of facilitating unlawful betting through crypto infrastructure. 

The platform allegedly processed transactions for unauthorized gambling websites operating across Turkey. 

Authorities seized real estate, corporate shares, banking accounts, and cryptocurrency holdings. This comprehensive freeze aims to prevent the laundering of criminally obtained proceeds.

The case follows another major Turkish seizure announced last week. Officials confiscated $550 million in cryptocurrency linked to fugitive Veysel Sahin. 

Sahin faces an Interpol Red Notice for operating illegal betting platforms and money laundering. Extradition proceedings remain ongoing.

Tether’s assistance in both Turkish cases demonstrates the company’s responsiveness to regional enforcement efforts. The combined seizures exceed $1 billion in cryptocurrency value. 

Turkish authorities continue investigating additional platforms suspected of providing services to unlicensed betting operations. 

The crackdown reflects stricter oversight of cryptocurrency exchanges serving Turkish users without proper authorization.

Some of the answers predict another massive leg down for XRP’s price soon.

Although most cryptocurrencies tumbled hard in the past few weeks, XRP became the worst performer during the Thursday crash, dropping to just over $1.10 for the first time in well over a year.

This meant that the asset had shed more than 50% of its value in just a month as it peaked at $2.40 on January 6. The question now is whether this is a full-on bear market, and if it is, how low can XRP go as the correction deepens? We asked ChatGPT, Perplexity, Grok, and Gemini about their view on the matter.

How Low, XRP?

ChatGPT admitted that plummeting from $2.40 to $1.10 in the span of just a month means it’s not just a “healthy correction” any longer – it’s a clear shift in market structure. The rejection at $2.40 marked a decisive local top, while the subsequent breakdown below $1.50 and $1.30 erased multiple layers of support. The current weak rebound suggests that buyers remain cautious and any upside attempts are likely to face heavy selling pressure, it added.

If this bearish behavior continues in the following weeks or months, the AI solution from OpenAI noted that XRP could plunge to somewhere between $0.85-$0.95. Interestingly, Perplexity sort of agreed with that target:

“This range represents a realistic bear-cycle low target if broader capitulation unfolds. A move here would align with historical behavior seen across larger-cap altcoins during prolonged downturns,” Perplexity added.

Gemini outlined the significance of the psychological $1.00 support. If it falls, XRP’s situation could worsen exponentially as investors will likely flock once that floor gives in. Consequently, it warned that the asset’s crash might take it even further south, to a low of somewhere around $0.60. Interestingly, that would result in completing a full circle since the US presidential elections in 2024, as XRP started its ascent from those levels.

Chances for a Rebound?

All AIs noted that it’s difficult to be optimistic in the current market environment. However, Grok outlined a possible bounce-off scenario in case XRP has already bottomed at $1.10.

The AI integrated into X said the cross-border token can remain sideways between $1.10 and $1.45 for the next few weeks and possibly look ahead for a more decisive rebound to over $1.60 if it manages to take down the $1.50 resistance. This would be the so-called ‘bull case’ in which XRP doesn’t break down beneath $1.00 soon. If it does, all bets are off, Grok added, and warned of further declines to under $0.90.

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TLDR:

• Wintermute CEO says no credible sources confirm circulating crypto liquidation rumors
• Modern perpetual futures markets offer transparency unlike previous cycle’s lending platforms
• Digital asset desks buying Bitcoin above $100K face mounting pressure from current prices
• Legal penalties in major jurisdictions deter false bankruptcy claims from struggling firms

Wintermute CEO Evgeny Gaevoy publicly challenged spreading rumors about major crypto firm liquidations following recent market volatility. 

He expressed skepticism about immediate spillover effects despite speculation linking an Asian trading firm to Bitcoin ETF sales. The executive noted that credible industry insiders have not confirmed any blowup stories circulating on social media. 

Current rumors originate from unverified accounts rather than trusted sources with direct knowledge.

Market Structure Changes Reduce Contagion Risk

Gaevoy outlined how crypto leverage shifted fundamentally since the previous cycle’s catastrophic failures. 

Uncollateralized lending platforms like Genesis and Celsius facilitated opaque borrowing arrangements that collapsed spectacularly. Those entities operated without transparency and created systemic risks across the industry. 

Modern leverage concentrates in perpetual futures markets with visible risk management and automated liquidation systems.

The Wintermute executive contrasted current speculation with past blowup events that followed clear patterns. Three Arrows Capital’s collapse spread through private messages within two to three days after Terra’s implosion. 

FTX troubles became obvious when Binance bailout discussions leaked to the public. Major solvency crises don’t remain hidden long when real contagion exists.

Exchange risk controls improved dramatically after expensive lessons from Three Arrows Capital. 

Deribit was the only exchange that lost money on that default due to special credit lines. No major platforms show appetite for similar unsecured arrangements anymore. 

Auto-deleveraging mechanisms now prevent customer liquidations from damaging exchange balance sheets.

Gaevoy dismissed concerns about exchanges themselves failing through FTX-style misuse of customer funds. The practice of investing user deposits into illiquid assets appears abandoned industry-wide. 

Exchanges also became better at detecting hacks even when firms attempt concealment. Legal consequences for false bankruptcy denials create real deterrents in major jurisdictions like Europe, the US, UK and Singapore.

Overleveraged Peak Buyers Still Face Reckoning

Despite short-term skepticism, Gaevoy acknowledged that market consequences from peak mania buying remain inevitable. 

Digital asset trading desks purchased heavily at levels now deeply underwater. Some firms acquired Solana above $225, Ethereum above $4000 and Bitcoin above $100000. Those positions face severe pressure given current prices.

The October 10th crash damaged the altcoin market in ways still not fully understood. Smaller trading desks focused on speculative tokens likely carry even worse exposure. 

Historical patterns show that reckless behavior during bull markets creates delayed problems. The executive warned that affected entities may not surface for months as positions unwind gradually.

Social media speculation linked recent volatility to an Asian firm liquidating Bitcoin through IBIT ETFs after precious metals margin calls. 

Gaevoy’s comments suggest such rumors lack substance currently. However, his acknowledgment that overleveraged players will eventually face consequences indicates patience may reveal the damage

.

TLDR: 

• Nasdaq filing raises limits for FBTC, ARKB, HODL to match IBIT’s existing 250k position threshold
• IBIT maintains standard 250k limit under Option 9 rules, separate from January regulatory changes
• BlackRock filed in November to increase IBIT limit to 1 million contracts, pending regulatory approval
• Market analyst warns against AI-generated misinformation about crypto ETF regulatory developments

Rumors claiming Nasdaq eliminated position limits for iShares Bitcoin Trust options have been debunked by market analyst Jeff Park. The confusion stems from a January SEC filing that adjusted restrictions on several crypto ETFs. 

Park clarified that the regulatory change does not grant unlimited leverage to Wall Street traders. Instead, the filing addresses position limits for other Bitcoin ETF products.

Regulatory Filing Targets Secondary Bitcoin ETFs

The SEC document in question raises position limits for FBTC, ARKB, HODL, and Ethereum ETFs from 25,000 to standard thresholds. IBIT already operates under the 250,000 position limit established in Nasdaq’s Option 9 rules. 

BlackRock’s IBIT and Bitwise’s BITB have maintained this higher limit since their options launched. The January filing aims to level competitive conditions across Bitcoin ETF issuers.

Park highlighted that the regulatory change removes previous restrictions that penalized crypto assets with non-standard limits. The filing explicitly references exchange requirements preventing unfair discrimination between customers and issuers. 

This adjustment brings smaller Bitcoin ETF products in line with established position limit frameworks. Market participants can verify current limits through the Options Clearing Corporation database.

IBIT Seeks Higher Position Limit Through Separate Process

A November 2024 filing reveals BlackRock’s attempt to increase IBIT’s position limit from 250,000 to one million contracts. This request remains pending with federal regulators as of February 2026. 

The proposed expansion would represent a fourfold increase in maximum allowable positions. Park emphasized this separate filing as the actual development worth monitoring for potential leverage changes.

The analyst cautioned against relying solely on AI chatbots for verifying market information. He noted instances where automated tools provided incorrect statements about the regulatory changes. 

Independent verification through official sources like the OCC database provides accurate position limit data. Park encouraged market participants to maintain due diligence when evaluating claims about regulatory developments.

The confusion highlights ongoing scrutiny of Bitcoin ETF derivatives markets. Position limits serve as risk management tools preventing excessive concentration in options contracts. 

Regulatory adjustments to these limits reflect evolving approaches to crypto asset integration in traditional finance. The standardization process continues as more Bitcoin ETF products enter the derivatives market.

TLDR:

• Li Lin confirmed no BTC or ETH sales from Avenir Group during market crash period
• Trend Research sold 658,168 ETH worth $1.35B at $2,058 average versus $3,104 cost
• Total losses reached $688M, erasing prior $315M gains for $373M net deficit
• Ethereum held above $2,000 after eight-day liquidation concluded on exchanges

The founder of Huobi and Avenir Group has publicly rejected claims linking him to a major Ethereum liquidation event. 

Li Lin stated he maintained his Bitcoin and ETH positions during the recent downturn. His denial comes as speculation swirled about a Hong Kong fund triggering the market crash.

Major Institutional Player Distances from Liquidation Event

Li Lin oversees Avenir Group, Asia’s largest institutional Bitcoin ETF holder. 

The executive denied any investment ties to Trend Research or an entity called Garrett. His statement aimed to counter narratives suggesting his firm played a role in the selloff.

Market participants had pointed fingers at Asian institutions during the price drop. Bitcoin fell below key support levels as Ethereum struggled to hold above $2,000. The rumors intensified as liquidations mounted across centralized and decentralized platforms.

Wu Blockchain reported Li Lin’s position remained unchanged throughout the volatility. 

Avenir Group’s Bitcoin ETF holdings stayed intact despite market pressure. The clarification sought to separate his operations from the unfolding liquidation crisis.

On-Chain Analysis Reveals Catastrophic Trading Loss

Data from ai_9684xtpa showed Trend Research liquidated its entire Ethereum position. The entity moved 658,168 ETH to exchanges over an eight-day period. The total value reached $1.354 billion at execution prices.

Trend Research bought Ethereum at an average cost of $3,104 per token. The selling occurred at roughly $2,058 per coin. This price difference generated losses exceeding $688 million on the trades.

The entity had previously secured profits of around $315 million from earlier positions. Those gains evaporated completely in the recent drawdown. Net losses now stand at approximately $373 million according to blockchain records.

The final transfer involved just 0.148 ETH moved to Binance. This small amount marked the complete exit from what was once a substantial holding. The selloff began on February 6 and concluded within days.

Ethereum prices stopped declining shortly after the massive selling commenced. The token stabilized above the $2,000 threshold despite continued pressure. Market observers noted the timing between the liquidation and price floor formation.

The event highlighted risks associated with leveraged DeFi strategies. Trend Research had reportedly deployed a looped position strategy worth over $2 billion. Market-wide liquidations surpassed $1 billion during the same window.

The crypto industry is likely to see more projects snapped up by larger companies, which may lead to a much less fragmented sector in the months ahead, says Bullish CEO Tom Farley.

“I was in the exchange sector during continual massive consolidation…the same thing is going to happen starting right now in crypto,” Farley said during an interview on CNBC on Friday.

Farley, who served as president of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) until 2018, said the recent drop in the crypto market will be a key catalyst, with Bitcoin (BTC) down nearly 45% from its October all-time high of $126,100 and trading at $69,405 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap

Farley says the consolidation should have already happened

However, he said that the industry’s consolidation should have happened earlier, but inflated valuations kept false optimism going. “It should have happened a year or two ago,” he said.

“People were still holding onto this hope that they’d get 2020 valuations, and so we’d have conversations with companies that would say, hey, we have $10 million in revenue, it’s not growing, we want $200 million to buy the company,” he said.

“That dream is going to be over,” Farley said, adding that “people are going to realize they don’t have businesses, they have products, and they need to merge up, and they need to scale, and that is going to happen.”