Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Featherweight strikers Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa will square off TONIGHT (Sat., May 16, 2026) inside UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 117.

Hopefully, Allen vs. Costa doesn’t get entirely lost in the Rousey vs. Carano hubbub, because this is an awesome main event! Allen climbed into the rankings by winning his first nine UFC fights, introducing him to elite competition like Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev. Though he’s come up short three times now against Top Five-level competition, Allen has been within inches of victory and proven himself a world-class Featherweight.

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Costa is in the midst of his own rise. The Brazilian picked up four excellent wins in 2025 and then started this year strong as well, spin kicking Dan Ige into oblivion a few months ago. Now ranked at No. 12, Costa remains a dark horse contender who could really break into the title mix if able to extend his current win streak to seven at Allen’s expense.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Allen vs. Costa Betting Odds

• Arnold Allen victory: -154

• Arnold Allen via TKO/KO/DQ: +380

• Arnold Allen via submission: +1400

• Arnold Allen via decision: +170

• Melquizael Costa victory: +120

• Melquizael Costa via TKO/KO/DQ: +600

• Melquizael Costa via submission: +650

• Melquizael Costa via decision: +330

How Allen Wins

Allen is one of Featherweight’s finest boxers. He moves very well on the outside, stabbing at opponents with that famous Tristar jab and blitzing in behind his left hand counter. The Southpaw kicks well at distance too, making him a well-rounded striker despite his boxing aptitude. As he demonstrated against Evloev, Allen is an excellent defensive wrestler with a very sneaky guillotine choke.

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Stylistically, this fight is similar to Allen’s 2024 matchup versus Giga Chikadze. Allen may like to box on the outside, but he doesn’t want to spend all night getting blasted by kicks — we just saw how badly that can end for boxers in Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates! As such, he has to pressure more and try to extend combinations, because that’s the kind of exchange that will allow his more fluid punching to shine.

How to close range against a fellow leftie? Allen has to double up on the jab to close forward, but he has to do so without getting his leg kicked to bits. The key there is to feint and false start often, as well as hide real jabs between non-committal shoulder pumps and arm-only jabs. The goal is to draw out Costa’s low kick and then press forward as he recovers his stance.

Running along on the outside and kicking often is an exhausting style, particularly over five rounds. Allen should quicken the fatigue process by targeting the body with his punches and trying to catch kicks for easy takedowns, which can prove very tiring.

How Costa Wins

Costa, still just 29 years of age, has come a long way technically in a short time. His striking style exemplifies the “all the way or all the way out” style of Muay Thai, as Costa does his best work while blasting kicks at distance or in the clinch with knees and elbows. In the pocket, Costa is good for a quick counter punch, but his boxing tends to falter when forced to trade for longer periods.

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Costa has also grown into a solid wrestler, and like Allen, that guillotine choke is nasty.

Typically, Costa is fighting Orthodox opposition, meaning he’s able to play the left hand-left kick double threat quite easily. Against a fellow Southpaw, the dynamic changes quite a bit, and Costa will want to really focus his left leg on chopping down Allen’s lead calf. We just saw Jean Silva find great success in kicking Allen during his pivots, which can be very damaging and limit movement quickly.

If Allen’s lead leg is too injured to close distance, he’s in for a rough night. Costa has a wide variety of kicks in his arsenal, and he should use those threats to hide the low kick. Naked calf kicks aren’t likely to land for “The Dalmatian,” but he’ll find better accuracy if hiding them behind the threat of front kicks or marching knees.

Aside from taking apart the lead leg, Costa should occasionally look to stand his ground and clinch. If he lets Allen run into him then breaks with a knee or elbow, that will help discourage Allen’s pressure and leave him stranded at the kicking range more often.

Allen vs. Costa Prediction

If you’re a fan of technical and violent kickboxing, this fight is going to rule. It may end up more of a slow burn than crazy brawl, but these two are likely to make continual tactical adjustments across five rounds, which is how you end up with momentum swings and competitive scraps. Slow burn or not, I’m expecting blood to be shed from both athletes.

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Ultimately, I see this fight going to the cards and being consistently competitive for 25 full minutes. The outcome will depend on where the fight mostly takes place, at long range or more in the pocket. As the fight wears on, I expect that Allen’s more efficient boxing style while wear Costa down a bit, allowing the English standout to capture enough of the second half of the fight to sway the judges.

Prediction: Allen via decision