Standard Chartered projects $4 trillion in tokenized assets onchain by 2028, with mature DeFi protocols as the main beneficiaries.

Standard Chartered projects that $4 trillion in tokenized assets will sit onchain by the end of 2028, evenly split between stablecoins and real-world assets. The forecast positions established DeFi protocols as the main winners.

Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, said DeFi’s composability allows the same asset to generate yield, serve as collateral, and trade for liquidity without traditional intermediaries.

BlackRock BUIDL anchors the thesis

Kendrick cited BlackRock’s BUIDL fund as proof of concept. The $2.85 billion tokenized Treasury fund earns Treasury yield, converts to sBUIDL for DeFi compatibility, and serves as core reserve collateral for Ethena’s USDtb and Ondo’s OUSG.

Aave, the largest DeFi lending protocol, processed daily stablecoin lending volumes between $1.5 billion and $2 billion at its peak. Coinbase’s lending product with Morpho has reached $1.75 billion in loans.

CLARITY Act seen as key catalyst

Kendrick views passage of the CLARITY Act as the most significant near-term catalyst for accelerating the shift from traditional rails to DeFi. The bill cleared Senate Banking 15-9 on May 14 and now heads to a full floor vote.

The projection consolidates two forecasts Kendrick has maintained separately: a $2 trillion stablecoin target and a $2 trillion RWA market, both by end-2028. The bank reaffirmed the RWA call in April despite recent DeFi exploits.

DeFi seen as primary beneficiary

There are currently roughly 1,000 times more assets offchain than onchain, according to the note. Kendrick believes tokenizing institutional-grade assets is the most likely source of growth, with protocols that scale safely positioned to benefit most.

“TradFi operators moving assets onchain will favor established players with strong risk metrics,” Kendrick wrote. Aave, Compound, and Morpho are positioned to lead, with Ethereum remaining the dominant settlement layer.

Bitcoin (BTC) retail investor activity on Binance has fallen to its lowest level in history. Retail BTC inflows on Binance now average near 314 BTC per month in 2026, down sharply from the 1,200 BTC range recorded in March 2024.

Bitcoin’s recovery in May also slowed as spot inflows on Binance weakened, with the 30-day net demand growth falling 73% over the past three weeks.

Bitcoin retail traders step back

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said retail Bitcoin inflows to Binance remained near its historic lows. The metric tracks BTC deposits from wallets holding less than 1 BTC, a common signal for retail investor activity.

Bitcoin retail inflows (less than 1 BTC) on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

Monthly retail BTC inflows on Binance now average just 314 BTC. The figure stood near 1,800 BTC during the 2022 bear market and around 1,200 BTC during Bitcoin’s March 2024 local top near $75,000. Earlier cycles showed far heavier retail participation, with inflows peaking near 5,400 BTC in 2018 and 2,600 BTC in 2021.

Darkfost said part of the shift likely stemmed from investors moving toward spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) rather than directly holding BTC on exchanges.

CryptoQuant data also showed a cooldown in retail demand growth. The 30-day change in retail investor demand dropped to 3.12% from 7.39% last week. That earlier reading marked the strongest retail demand expansion since August 2025, when Bitcoin traded near $115,000. The decline points to weaker spot participation after a brief pickup in buying activity. 

Bitcoin retail investor demand. Source: CryptoQuant

Related: Bitcoin price hits $76K, lowest since April after $1B ETF net outflow

BTC spot demand lags behind futures positioning 

Crypto analyst Amr Taha said Binance recorded two large spikes in Bitcoin taker sell volume during the recent decline. The first reached roughly $1.5 billion on May 15. Another climbed above $1.1 billion as Bitcoin fell below $77,000.

Market analyst Crazzyblockk said one important signal still missing from Bitcoin’s recovery is a balanced spot demand. The previous rallies in October 2024, November 2024, and May 2025 showed that spot and futures demand rose together. Spot demand ranged between +97,000 BTC and +190,000 BTC during those price rallies, while the futures demand expanded alongside it.

The latest recovery showed a different pattern. BTC futures demand remained positive at +193,000 BTC over 30 days, while spot demand remained negative at -28,000 BTC and stayed below zero for 65 consecutive days. The total 30-day demand growth also fell from 232,000 BTC in early May to 62,000 BTC by May 16, recording a 73% decline.

Bitcoin spot and futures demand growth (30-day sum). Source: CryptoQuant

Crazzyblockk also pointed to a sharp shift in Binance’s futures dominance last month. Binance previously controlled 40%-44% of global USDT-margined futures volume from October 2024 to March 2026.

In May 2026, Binance’s share dropped to 21.1% while OKX climbed to 26.3%, marking the first reversal in exchange leadership during the cycle. 

Related: Price predictions 5/18: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, HYPE, ADA

Kevin Warsh is poised to be sworn in as the next chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board of Governors this Friday, a transition that will place him at the center of monetary policy formation at a moment of heightened scrutiny over inflation, growth, and financial stability.

According to Cointelegraph, the Senate voted largely along party lines to confirm Warsh as the Fed’s new chair, succeeding Jerome Powell. The nomination comes as President Donald Trump has publicly pressed for a rate-cutting stance, a position that has fed ongoing debate about the Fed’s independence and its policy trajectory. In recent months, Trump publicly urged that the chair should be lowering interest rates, a stance that has intensified market and political discussion about looming shifts in policy direction.

With Warsh slated to assume the chair’s duties, synthetic market indicators have begun to price in divergent views on the policy path. Prediction-market platform Kalshi shows approximately 38.2% odds of the federal funds rate being lowered before 2027, a drop from roughly 96% observed in February. Meanwhile, CME Group’s FedWatch tool continues to signal a high probability that rates will remain at their current target of 3.50%–3.75% through the summer, with a 98.8% probability of no change through the end of June and more than 94% through July.

As the Fed chair, Warsh will wield substantial influence over policy deliberations and the setting of the federal funds rate, a task closely watched by financial markets, lenders, and institutions that rely on predictable policy signals. The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for June 16, providing a potential inflection point for policy if the new leadership signals a shift or confirms the status quo.

During Warsh’s confirmation hearing, concerns were raised about governance and potential conflicts of interest. Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren argued that confirming Warsh could create opportunities for the Fed to direct favorable outcomes toward financial interests, citing the possibility of special accounts or bailouts tied to affiliations with private entities. Warsh disclosed assets exceeding $100 million ahead of the hearing, including holdings in AI and crypto-related ventures, a disclosure that has prompted ongoing discussions about independence, disclosure standards, and perception of risk within a central bank leadership role.

Key takeaways

• Kevin Warsh is set to be sworn in as the chair of the Federal Reserve Board, signaling a leadership transition with potential implications for monetary policy inference and regulatory posture.
• The confirmation vote in the Senate was described as largely along party lines, reflecting the broader political dynamics surrounding the central bank’s independence.
• Market expectations show a divide: Kalshi’s contract pricing indicates a 38.2% chance of a rate cut before 2027 (down from 96% in February), while CME FedWatch places a high probability on rate stability through mid-year and into summer.
• Warsh’s asset disclosure — reportedly more than $100 million, including investments in AI and crypto — has amplified discussions about governance, personal exposure, and conflict-of-interest risk for a central bank chair.
• Lawmakers are pressing for rapid CFTC nominations amid ongoing debates over crypto market structure, enforcement priorities, and the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY), underscoring the regulatory dimension of the evolving crypto landscape in parallel with traditional financial oversight.

Federal Reserve leadership and policy trajectory

The impending swearing-in of Warsh as Fed chair places him at the apex of a complex policy milieu that includes inflation dynamics, growth concerns, and financial stability considerations. While the Fed’s policy stance will ultimately be guided by the FOMC’s deliberations, leadership signals can shape the tempo of policy normalization or accommodation. The central bank operates with a mandate to maximize employment and price stability, and the appointment of a new chair often influences market interpretations of the committee’s appetite for rate adjustments or balance-sheet actions in the near term.

From a regulatory and compliance perspective, the transition underscores the importance of ensuring that chair-level commitments align with established institutional safeguards, independence norms, and robust governance practices. The ongoing dialogue around potential conflicts of interest and asset disclosures highlights the critical need for transparent governance frameworks within key U.S. financial authorities.

Market sentiment, risk assessment, and policy signaling

The divergence between prediction-market pricing and traditional probability tools reflects a broader ambiguity about the policy path under Warsh’s leadership. Kalshi’s pricing suggests a meaningful probability of a rate cut only beyond the near-term horizon, whereas the Fed’s own projections and futures markets continue to show a strong tilt toward policy stability in the coming months. This discrepancy matters in practice for institutions managing interest-rate risk, the pricing of secured funding, and risk-management frameworks that rely on forward-looking policy expectations.

Regulatory and institutional implications are evident in how market participants calibrate their capital planning, liquidity management, and lending practices. A shift toward a more aggressive rate-reduction stance could alter the pricing of risk across debt markets, impact leverage conditions for banks and nonbank lenders, and influence the valuation of income-oriented assets. Conversely, a confirmed stance of steady policy could reinforce the current macroeconomic assumptions underpinning credit markets and risk models.

Regulatory nominations, oversight, and the crypto-policy backdrop

Even as Warsh approaches the chair’s desk, lawmakers remain focused on the regulatory architecture governing financial markets, particularly the crypto sector. The CFTC’s leadership lineup has come under scrutiny amid debates about who should oversee innovative trading platforms and how rulemaking should evolve in tandem with digital asset market developments. Since December, the CFTC has been led by Michael Selig, with Acting Chair Caroline Pham replaced, and the regulator has taken a more assertive stance regarding platforms that host prediction markets and other digital-asset-related activity.

House lawmakers have urged the Trump administration to nominate a full slate of CFTC commissioners to address urgent regulatory issues and to provide clarity on rulemaking if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY) were to become law. The evolving policy framework for crypto markets and the broader digital-asset ecosystem remains a dynamic area of federal regulation, with potential cross-border considerations and implications for licensing, enforcement, and market structure standardization.

According to Cointelegraph, these developments reflect a broader regulatory calibration: balancing innovation and investor protection, ensuring effective oversight of new trading venues, and aligning U.S. policy with a rapidly changing market landscape. The regulatory trajectory and the precise stance on crypto market infrastructure will be pivotal for exchanges, fintechs, and institutions seeking to operate within a coherent U.S. framework that can interface with international standards.

Institutional and compliance implications

The combination of a new Fed chair, ongoing questions about independence and disclosure, and the regulatory push around crypto markets creates a multifaceted environment for financial institutions. Banks and nonbank lenders alike must monitor policy signals that affect funding costs, capital adequacy planning, and risk governance. Compliance teams should prepare for potential shifts in disclosure requirements, governance expectations, and the regulatory posture toward digital assets, including how the CLARITY framework might influence licensing, reporting, and cross-border operations.

From a policy-history perspective, the Warsh appointment sits within a lineage of central-bank leadership where governance clarity and preemptive risk management are increasingly prioritized. The unfolding discussions about special accounts, bailouts, or other policy tools underscore the importance of maintaining a transparent framework that preserves independence while addressing public-interest concerns.

Closing perspective

As Warsh takes the helm, the key question is how quickly and in what direction monetary policy will respond to evolving macro forces and political considerations. Watch for signals from the Fed’s communications and the June 16 FOMC meeting, alongside ongoing Congressional and regulatory activity around crypto-market oversight. The coming weeks will illuminate how the new leadership balances independence, economic stability, and regulatory alignment in a rapidly changing financial landscape.

Galaxy Digital secured a BitLicense from New York on May 18 to offer regulated crypto services to institutions.

Galaxy Digital announced on May 18 that the New York State Department of Financial Services granted its subsidiary GalaxyOne Prime NY both a BitLicense and a Money Transmission License.

The approvals authorise Galaxy to offer regulated digital asset trading and custody services to institutions across New York State, including registered investment advisers, hedge funds, and family offices on a platform managing approximately $9 billion in client assets.

“New York is home to the deepest pool of institutional capital in the country, and digital assets are no longer sitting at the edge of those allocations,” said Mike Novogratz, Galaxy’s founder and CEO, in a statement.

Galaxy Digital’s BitLicense and what it unlocks

Galaxy becomes only the second firm to receive a BitLicense in 2026, following bitcoin payments firm Strike, which secured NYDFS approval in March.

The framework, introduced in 2015, is one of the strictest crypto licensing regimes in the US, requiring capital minimums, ongoing compliance reviews, and cybersecurity oversight. Only around 40 companies have been approved since launch. New York now joins Galaxy’s regulatory network of more than 50 global licences.

As crypto.news reported, Galaxy research head Alex Thorn has been closely tracking institutional Bitcoin allocations throughout 2026. The New York BitLicense gives Galaxy’s trading and custody platform direct access to the institutions driving those flows, in a state that holds the largest concentration of hedge funds and investment advisers in the US.

Why New York matters for institutional crypto

BitLicense holders include Coinbase, Robinhood, Circle, and PayPal, making Galaxy’s approval a signal that NYDFS continues selectively admitting crypto firms. As crypto.news documented in its 2025 coverage of Galaxy’s Q2 results, the firm has been building out its data center and AI infrastructure alongside its digital asset platform.

The New York licence now opens one of the world’s largest institutional pools to a firm that generated record results in Global Markets last year and has expanded its data center operations significantly since.

Galaxy’s shares fell 2.36% to $28.91 in pre-market trading on Monday despite the approval, reflecting broader market weakness on the day.

The Protect Progress political action committee, linked to the Fairshake PAC, has deployed a substantial media spend in Georgia’s 13th Congressional District, targeting the Democratic primary contender for a U.S. House seat. Data filed with the Federal Election Commission show the group and its affiliates have spent more than $4 million to influence the outcome of Jasmine Clark’s bid for elected office, signaling how crypto-aligned interest groups are expanding their electoral footprint ahead of midterm cycles. The development arrives amid heightened scrutiny of crypto lobbying in public policy and the regulatory environment surrounding digital assets.

As Georgia voters head to the polls in the primary race for the state’s 13th district, Clark faces competition within her party. The spending by Protect Progress amounts to a sizable portion of the primary-era media campaigns and underscores the ongoing strategy by crypto-adjacent groups to push policymakers toward legislative and regulatory outcomes favorable to digital assets. According to data from the Federal Election Commission, Clark has been the beneficiary of more than $4.2 million in media spending tied to Protect Progress ahead of the primary, illustrating the scale at which crypto-aligned groups seek to influence elections in pivotal districts.

Clark’s public messaging on digital assets has attracted attention. She appears to have deleted a March social media post that framed digital assets as a future tool for unbanked communities, a post referencing the U.S. Congress’s consideration of a crypto market structure bill. In parallel, she completed a questionnaire from Stand With Crypto, a Coinbase-aligned organization that has asserted she is “a candidate who expressed strong support for establishing clear legislative and regulatory frameworks for digital assets in the United States.”

Protect Progress and its affiliates Fairshake and Defend American Jobs project continued and enhanced spending in 2026 to back candidates seen as friendly to crypto policy, while opposing those who are not. In 2024, Fairshake reportedly invested more than $130 million in media and advertising, a figure Coinbase Chief Executive Officer Brian Armstrong cited as contributing to what he called the “most pro-crypto Congress ever.” Coinbase has been a backer of Fairshake as part of its broader engagement with crypto advocacy groups.

Related reporting shows crypto-focused PACs have intensified activity in multiple states. A Cointelegraph feature highlighted ongoing spending in five states ahead of midterm elections, illustrating how crypto-aligned groups mobilize across jurisdictions. Not all efforts yield victories; for example, in Illinois, Fairshake-backed spending opposed Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton in a U.S. Senate primary, yet Stratton secured the nomination with substantial voter support. Stand With Crypto’s public stance remains that robust advocacy and voter information efforts can shift outcomes toward candidates perceived as pro-crypto, though results remain mixed across races.

“From a Stand With Crypto perspective, we are going to do everything we can to give our advocates the tools they need to make sure that they make an informed vote and they’re able to cast their ballot on election day for the candidate that is pro-crypto they care about,” Stand With Crypto executive director Mason Lynaugh told Cointelegraph. “If everyone makes their voices heard […] we will have a more pro-crypto Congress than we did this past year.”

Cointelegraph sought comment from Fairshake ahead of the Georgia voting but did not receive an immediate response. The conversation around crypto-influenced advertising and candidate support continues to illustrate the pragmatic alignment between political action committees and policy advocates seeking to shape the regulatory landscape for digital assets.

Key takeaways

• Crypto-aligned PACs have deployed multi-million-dollar media campaigns in state primaries, with Protect Progress reporting over $4 million in Georgia to influence Jasmine Clark’s candidacy for the U.S. House.
• Clark’s public statements and a Stand With Crypto questionnaire point to an alignment with pro-crypto regulatory frameworks, highlighting the interplay between candidate positioning and crypto advocacy groups.
• Affiliates Fairshake and Defend American Jobs have signaled continued substantial spending in 2026 to back pro-crypto policymakers while opposing those perceived as unsupportive of the industry.
• Past performance by Fairshake—over $130 million in media spending in 2024—has been cited by industry observers as contributing to a highly favorable congressional environment for crypto policy, attracting both support and skepticism from regulators and lawmakers alike.
• In other races, crypto-focused spending has produced mixed outcomes; the broader strategy remains to influence regulatory direction, licensing, and enforcement through legislative outcomes.

Georgia and beyond: policy context and regulatory implications

The Georgia primary case underscores a broader trend in which crypto-affiliated committees deploy significant media budgets to shape political trajectories and policy debates around digital assets. The spending intersects with a complex regulatory backdrop at the U.S. federal level, where federal agencies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Department of Justice assess enforcement and compliance with evolving asset-class rules. While U.S. policy remains fragmented relative to some international frameworks, ongoing debates around licensing, AML/KYC requirements, and disclosure obligations continue to affect how crypto firms engage with political actors and the public sector.

Separately, a Texas run-off in the 18th Congressional District has highlighted parallel dynamics. In March, Protect Progress reportedly spent more than $1.5 million opposing Representative Al Green in the primary. Federal filings show Protect Progress allocated more than $2.8 million on media opposing Green—who voted against certain industry-supported measures—while roughly the same amount was spent in support of Christian Menefee, who has publicly endorsed blockchain technology. The Texas contest mirrors Georgia in illustrating how PACs with crypto affiliations calibrate messaging and candidate alignment to advance preferred policy outcomes, particularly around digital-asset regulation and industry access to banking services.

The regulatory implications extend beyond house races. The involvement of crypto-linked PACs in candidate selection and policy advocacy raises questions about disclosure, campaign finance integrity, and the degree to which industry interests can shape regulatory conversations. Analysts and compliance teams within exchanges, banks, and crypto firms increasingly monitor these developments to assess risks related to policy risk, licensing requirements, and the potential for enforcement actions tied to political activity disclosures. The evolving policy environment, including cross-border considerations and the potential synchronization with broader regulatory initiatives, remains a critical uncertainty for market participants and policymakers alike.

Closing perspective

As crypto advocacy and political influence converge, the focus for regulators and industry participants will be on transparency, compliance with disclosure obligations, and the practical implications of policy shifts on licensing, AML/KYC programs, and cross-border operations. The Georgia and Texas examples illustrate a persistent trend: well-funded, crypto-aligned committees are actively pursuing policy outcomes in a landscape where enforcement priorities and regulatory definitions continue to evolve. Monitoring forthcoming regulatory moves, enforcement actions, and legislative developments will be essential for institutions seeking to navigate this dynamic environment.

Bitcoin failed to sustain a rally above $82,000, slipping back toward the mid-$70,000s as traders reassessed the risk/reward at current levels. A subsequent retest of around $76,000 helped spark roughly $400 million in liquidations on bullish, leveraged bets over a four-day stretch, underscoring the fragility of routine gains in a market navigating rising macro yields and a heavy debt burden in the United States. The episode leaves the door open for a re-acceleration toward the $80,000 level, but signals that the path higher remains data- and reaction-driven rather than assured.

Key to this dynamic has been Strategy (MSTR), whose aggressive bitcoin accumulation has become a focal point of the market narrative. Over the past week, Strategy disclosed a successful push to add BTC at scale, with reports indicating roughly $2 billion of BTC purchased in that period. The activity, steered by Michael Saylor, highlights a broader shift among crypto bulls toward ways to finance, or refinance, positions in a system where capital costs and liquidity remain critical considerations. The company has repeatedly shown a willingness to tap equity markets—via common stock or STRC preferred equity—to fund bitcoin buys, a strategy that some investors view as a pragmatic hedge against capital costs in a volatile market. More detail on the $2 billion BTC haul and its timing was reported in coverage that cites Strategy’s recent holdings expansion.

In a separate but related move, Strategy continued to address its balance sheet by repurchasing $1.5 billion of debt maturing in 2029. The debt-management step reduces potential future dilution for current shareholders and helps clear runway for additional capital raises and further BTC purchases. Taken together, Strategy’s debt reductions and continued accumulation of bitcoin underscore a deliberate approach to navigating a softer market while maintaining exposure to the crypto rally thesis.

From a macro view, the backdrop for bitcoin’s next leg hinges on a stubbornly steep yield curve and a government debt load that complicates policy options. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.60%, its highest in roughly 16 months, a move that tends to tilt allocations toward scarce, high-escape-value assets when conventional fixed income or cash yields look unattractive. The market narrative increasingly factors in roughly $2 trillion of long-term debt maturing in 2026, creating both a challenge for the Treasury and a potential tailwind for non-sovereign stores of value like bitcoin as investors hunt for hedges against continued financial fragility.

Key macro tensions shaping the backdrop

Dollar trajectory and inflation expectations loom large as investors reassess the Fed’s path. The prospect that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain bond-buying or maturity-management to support liquidity could weaken the dollar and tilt demand toward scarce, hard-asset exposures. In this framing, gold and bitcoin sometimes compete for the same flight-to-safety or diversification niche, though the two assets have historically followed different catalysts. Recent price action suggests growing confidence in bitcoin as a potential hedge within this macro mix, even as gold has shown periods of strength and retracement amid shifting risk sentiment.

Beyond macro forces, energy markets add another layer of complexity. Brent crude climbed to around $113 as negotiations to reopen strategic chokepoints faced headwinds, with supply concerns mounting amid broader geopolitical tensions in the region. The energy backdrop matters for risk appetite: persistent high energy costs can complicate inflation trajectories and, by extension, influence central-bank policy expectations. In this environment, traders watch how shifts in commodity markets interact with crypto risk-on dynamics to set the tone for bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.

The conversation around whether a potential US-Iran accord could alter risk appetite remains a live variable. While not a baseline scenario, such a deal—if reached or even advanced in negotiations—could reintroduce appetite for risk assets and potentially nudge bitcoin above the $80,000 level. Analysts stress that inflation, energy prices, and geopolitical risk all feed into a broader decision matrix for investors: stay content with traditional assets or embrace crypto as a relatively scarce, non-sovereign store of value within a volatile macro landscape.

In late-February, bitcoin demonstrated notable momentum, ascending from the $65,000 range to roughly $76,500 in a matter of weeks as confidence in the crypto narrative strengthened. The shift contrasted with a period when gold had captured attention on earlier headlines, yet bitcoin’s rally showcased durable hands-on demand from strategic buyers and a willingness among market participants to price in a degree of resilience for the asset class even amid macro headwinds.

Looking ahead, traders will be watching how bitcoin behaves around the $80,000 threshold and whether Strategy’s capital deployment pattern continues to scale. The balance sheet adjustments—paired with ongoing macro considerations and potential geopolitical developments—could set up a testing ground for whether BTC can sustain a new leg higher or remain range-bound until fresh catalysts emerge. As always, these dynamics hinge on liquidity conditions, funding costs, and the ever-shifting risk preferences of large market players.

Related context: analysis and ongoing coverage on whether Bitcoin’s current setup supports a sustainable move beyond $80,000

As the market digests these developments, readers should monitor how continued corporate BTC accumulation, debt management moves, and macro forces interact with evolving global risk sentiment. The coming weeks will reveal whether the confluence of tight liquidity, rising yields, and geopolitical risk translates into a renewed appetite for bitcoin—or if traders opt for caution until clearer directional cues emerge.

What to watch next: the resilience of BTC around the 80k level, the trajectory of the 10-year yield, and any fresh signals from Strategy regarding further BTC purchases or balance-sheet actions. The balance between risk-on optimism and macro constraints will likely define the near-term path for bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

Digital infrastructure company Soluna Holdings reported strong first-quarter revenue growth as expanding data center operations helped offset weaker returns from cryptocurrency mining.

Revenue rose 58% from a year earlier to $9.4 million and increased 2% from the previous quarter, according to the company’s earnings report released Monday. It was Soluna’s fourth-consecutive quarter of sequential revenue growth.

The gains were driven by additional capacity coming online at the company’s Dorothy and Kati sites in Texas. Data center hosting generated $6.7 million in revenue, while cryptocurrency mining contributed roughly $2.2 million, down from nearly $3 million the year before, as Bitcoin mining economics deteriorated. 

Despite higher revenue, Soluna remained unprofitable. A net loss widened to $17.9 million from $10.5 million a year earlier, primarily due to higher stock-based compensation, interest expense and financing costs. Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed modestly to $2.1 million.

Soluna ended the quarter with $68.6 million in cash as it continued to expand its infrastructure footprint, including plans to grow its AI and high-performance computing business.

A snapshot of Soluna’s quarterly crypto mining revenues. Source: Soluna Holdings

Related: Paradigm reframes Bitcoin mining as grid asset, not energy drain

Crypto miners pivot toward AI infrastructure

Soluna is participating in a broader shift among Bitcoin (BTC) miners seeking new revenue streams as mining margins come under pressure. Mining economics have tightened significantly since the 2024 halving, with the recent decline in BTC prices adding further strain.

A March report from CoinShares found that as many as 20% of Bitcoin miners could be operating at a loss, particularly those using older, less efficient machines. The report also noted that Bitcoin hashprice — a key measure of miner revenue — fell to a post-halving low in February.

In response, several publicly traded miners, including HIVE Digital Technologies and TeraWulf, have redirected capital toward artificial intelligence and high-performance computing.

Analysts at Bernstein recently said IREN is expected to derive most of its future value from AI infrastructure rather than digital asset mining. The firm cited IREN’s growing AI cloud business and long-term agreement with Microsoft as key drivers of that transition.

A Bernstein analysis shows how even large-scale miners like IREN are expected to generate the bulk of their revenues from AI. Source: Bernstein

Related: Core Scientific plans $3.3B debt raise to fund AI data center push

TLDR:

• Every Sui transaction deposits storage fees into a protocol-level fund that validators draw rewards from.
• The Storage Fund stakes its holdings and pays validators only from returns, keeping its principal fully intact.
• Network growth increases fund size, which reduces SUI in active circulation against a hard 10 billion cap.
• Users who delete on-chain data receive partial fee refunds, reinforcing the fund’s deflationary supply design.

The Sui blockchain operates on a tokenomics model that goes beyond its widely cited 10 billion token supply cap.

At the center of this model is a mechanism called the Storage Fund — a self-sustaining pool designed to align incentives between past users and future validators.

Understanding how it works may change how investors think about SUI’s long-term supply dynamics.

How the Storage Fund Creates a Self-Sustaining Cycle

Every transaction on the Sui network that adds data to the chain requires the user to pay a storage fee. That fee does not flow directly to validators. Instead, it enters the Storage Fund, a growing pool of SUI tokens held at the protocol level.

The fund then participates in network staking. It earns staking rewards like any other participant. Those rewards are distributed to validators as compensation for storing historical chain data.

This structure solves a problem that most blockchain networks have not addressed. When a new validator joins Sui, it must store all historical data from transactions it never processed.

The Storage Fund covers that cost, drawing from fees paid by the original users who created the storage demand.

As crypto analyst @2xnmore noted, “Past users who created the storage requirements in the first place funded the pool. Future validators get compensated from that pool indefinitely.”

The fund pays out only its staking returns, not the principal. That design means it cannot be drained over time.

The Direct Connection Between Network Growth and Circulating Supply

The Storage Fund has a direct effect on SUI’s circulating supply. As network activity grows, more transactions occur. More transactions mean more storage fees entering the fund.

As the fund grows, it holds a larger share of the total SUI supply. That SUI is effectively removed from active circulation.

With total supply capped at 10 billion, any sustained reduction in circulating tokens against steady or growing demand creates upward pressure on price.

The Sui documentation addresses this directly, framing deflation as a built-in protocol feature rather than a side effect.

There is also a deletion mechanic worth noting. Users who remove data they stored on-chain receive a partial refund of their original storage fees. This rewards responsible chain usage and further ties economic behavior to supply management.

@2xnmore pointed out that “most people holding SUI today are pricing the speed narrative,” referencing parallel transaction processing, sub-second finality, and Move language safety.

However, the storage fund’s effect on circulating supply has not yet been widely factored into market pricing.

The gap between documented protocol mechanics and current market awareness is where long-term investors tend to find early positioning.

The Storage Fund is not new information — it is in the official documentation. Most retail participants have simply not read it yet.

TLDR:

• XRP daily transaction count has dropped 20% over three months, now sitting at just 1.78 million.
• Binance funding rates turned negative at -0.003, reflecting a mild bearish lean among perpetual traders.
• XRP’s Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance stands at 0.173, far below its six-month peak of 0.260.
• Daily liquidations collapsed 99%, pointing to a deeply de-risked and low-volatility market structure.

XRP is consolidating near the $1.38–$1.43 range amid a sharp drop in both on-chain activity and derivatives market participation. Total daily transaction counts on the XRP network have fallen 20% over three months, now sitting at 1.78 million.

Funding rates on Binance have turned negative at -0.003, and daily liquidations have collapsed by 99% to just a few thousand dollars. The market is waiting for a catalyst.

Derivatives Data Points to a De-Risked Market

The most telling signal comes from the Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance, which currently stands at 0.173. That figure sits well below its six-month peak of 0.260, showing how much speculative activity has exited the market. Traders have broadly reduced their exposure, leaving very little leverage on either side of the book.

The near-total absence of liquidations backs this up further. When funding rates go negative without a surge in liquidations, it rules out aggressive over-leveraged shorting.

Instead, it reflects a mild bearish lean among perpetual traders, not a crowded short trade. The market has essentially run out of speculative fuel.

This kind of structural exhaustion is what analysts refer to as a “Volatility Vacuum.” According to CryptoOnchain, these periods of low liquidity and flushed leverage have historically preceded major directional moves. The market is resetting, not collapsing.

A definitive macroeconomic or fundamental catalyst would likely be the trigger needed to break XRP out of this quiet phase. Until that arrives, price action may remain compressed.

Technical Structure Keeps Range-Bound View Intact

On the technical side, XRP is trading within a broad corrective triangle structure. The recent attempt to break higher failed to show impulsive behavior, which keeps range-bound expectations in place.

More Crypto Online noted in a post that the “move higher lacked impulsive behavior,” leaving the broader structure unchanged.

The preferred technical reading still allows for a larger triangle to develop. A potential C-wave extension could push prices toward key resistance levels at $1.55, $1.60, and $1.66. However, that move has not yet materialized with any conviction.

On the downside, $1.28 is the level to watch. A sustained break below that area would weaken the triangle structure considerably. Support below that sits at $1.26, with a broader range floor between $1.16 and $1.26.

For now, XRP remains range-bound with no clear breakout catalyst in sight. The technical and derivatives data are both telling the same story. The market is pausing, building pressure for the next significant directional move.