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Crypto World

Crypto Meets Commodities: OKX and ICE Launch Round-the-Clock Oil Perpetual Futures

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

Key Highlights

  • Intercontinental Exchange and OKX introduce perpetual futures contracts for Brent and WTI crude oil with 24/7 availability.

  • These contracts enable digital asset traders to gain oil market exposure without dealing with expiration dates.

  • ICE supplies regulated pricing benchmarks while OKX handles crypto-based margin and platform distribution.

  • Initial rollout targets markets outside the United States to comply with current regulatory frameworks.

  • This collaboration represents a significant merger of conventional commodity markets with digital asset trading infrastructure.

Digital asset platform OKX has forged an alliance with Intercontinental Exchange to introduce perpetual futures contracts anchored to international oil pricing standards. These instruments will reference ICE Brent Crude and WTI Crude benchmarks, facilitating uninterrupted trading access for cryptocurrency market participants. Unlike traditional futures, perpetual contracts enable traders to hold positions without expiration constraints, while funding mechanisms maintain price correlation with underlying assets.

This strategic alliance merges ICE’s established regulated futures pricing infrastructure with OKX‘s cryptocurrency margin trading capabilities and global distribution network. The oil perpetual products will initially be available in jurisdictions where the exchange currently maintains regulatory authorization. This framework deliberately separates US-regulated pricing benchmarks from international crypto trading activities to satisfy compliance obligations.

Industry analysts highlight that this agreement reinforces ICE’s strategic relationship with OKX. Intercontinental Exchange maintains an equity position in OKX and obtained board representation through their comprehensive partnership arrangement. This development enables ICE to generate revenue from benchmark licensing while simultaneously extending its reach into crypto-native trading frameworks.

Contract Mechanics and Trading Access

These instruments function as non-expiring swap agreements that derive their value from ICE’s Brent and WTI benchmark prices. Funding rate mechanisms are incorporated to maintain pricing alignment between crypto markets and conventional futures exchanges. The product launch will initially exclude US markets to ensure adherence to applicable jurisdictional regulations.

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Both retail and institutional market participants obtain perpetual exposure to globally recognized oil pricing standards. The perpetual contract structure facilitates around-the-clock market access, capitalizing on cryptocurrency market liquidity and existing user infrastructure. Through ICE pricing integration, OKX guarantees that contracts maintain fidelity to recognized market benchmarks.

The cryptocurrency exchange will oversee margin calculations, settlement processes, and user accessibility for these perpetual instruments. This arrangement grants traders commodity benchmark exposure without requiring physical asset custody or delivery. The approach corresponds with emerging patterns where digital asset venues provide derivatives linked to traditional commodities.

Market Impact and Future Development

Intercontinental Exchange and OKX are establishing a framework for incorporating tangible commodities into cryptocurrency markets. These perpetual instruments extend regulated benchmark utilization into digital asset trading environments. The continuous trading capability accommodates crypto leverage frameworks that users already understand and utilize.

This partnership creates pathways for accessing tokenized equity products and futures contracts pending regulatory clearance. ICE intends to introduce US-regulated cryptocurrency futures referenced to OKX spot market pricing. OKX platform users will gain access to ICE’s benchmark-linked instruments across international markets, significantly broadening market participation opportunities.

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The perpetual futures offering has potential to capture high-frequency traders pursuing commodity market exposure. This initiative demonstrates the growing convergence between established commodity trading venues and cryptocurrency platforms. It establishes foundational infrastructure for deeper integration of regulated financial instruments within digital asset marketplaces.

 

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Fed’s Waller warns inflation may force new hikes, rattling risk assets

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Maxine Waters seeks details on Kraken Fed account approval

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller warned that stubborn inflation and surging energy costs now outweigh labor market risks, signaling that rate hikes are “back on the table” and jolting expectations that had been primed for cuts a few months ago.

Summary

  • Waller said US CPI hit 3.8% in April with energy prices up 17.9% as oil climbed above $100 per barrel
  • Core PCE inflation rose to 3.3%, its highest level in more than two years, while unemployment held at 4.3% and GDP grew 2%
  • He urged dropping the Fed’s “easing bias” and said rate increases cannot be ruled out if inflation does not abate soon

In a speech described as “hawkish” by Wall Street Journal economics correspondent Nick Timiraos, Waller argued that “inflation is not headed in the right direction” and that the balance of risks has shifted away from the labor market and toward price stability.

Why is Waller calling for an end to the Fed’s easing bias?

He pointed to April’s 3.8 percent year on year consumer price index reading and a 17.9 percent jump in energy costs, which he tied to Middle East conflicts that have pushed oil above $100 per barrel and filtered into gasoline, transport and production costs across the economy.

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On the Fed’s preferred core PCE gauge, which strips out food and energy, Waller noted that inflation has climbed to 3.3 percent, the highest level in more than two years, even as unemployment holds around 4.3 percent and real GDP grows near 2 percent.

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“Based on this recent data, I would support removing the ‘easing bias’ language in our policy statement to make it clear that a rate cut is no more likely in the future than a rate increase,” Waller said, in comments relayed by Bloomberg TV’s Annmarie Hordern.

At the same time, he stopped short of demanding an immediate move, with ZeroHedge highlighting his line that he does not think the Fed “should consider hikes in the near future,” framing his stance instead as a live threat if inflation refuses to cool.

Timiraos summed up the shift by saying Waller “comes across as quite troubled by recent inflation developments,” and reported that the governor believes markets are still underpricing the risk that higher energy prices will prove more persistent than investors expect.

What could Waller’s hawkish turn mean for Bitcoin and crypto?

For crypto markets, Waller’s warning hits the same macro channel that has powered Bitcoin’s biggest moves this year, with traders toggling between “higher for longer” yields and recession‑driven rate cuts as they price digital assets against real rates and the dollar.

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Earlier this spring, Bitcoin rallied back above $70,000 as a Trump brokered two week ceasefire with Iran and hopes of policy easing sent risk assets surging, a pattern covered when Bitcoin (BTC) steadied while Iran briefly reopened the Strait of Hormuz even as oil markets stayed tight.

More recently, crypto traded in lockstep with Middle East headlines and Fed repricing, with crypto market outlook reports noting how every twist in US Iran tensions and Hormuz blockade threats fed directly into bets on inflation, energy and the path of rates.

If Waller’s shift from a dovish bias to a posture where hikes are explicitly “back on the table” convinces markets that the next move could be up rather than down, higher real yields and a stronger dollar would usually pressure both gold and crypto, just as bullion slid below $4,500 as traders raised the odds of another Fed move.

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At the same time, persistent 3.8 percent headline inflation and 3.3 percent core PCE also reinforce the long running narrative of Bitcoin as an alternative hedge against US policy slippage, a theme that resurfaced when Bitcoin reclaimed $70,000 on ceasefire relief even as bond markets priced in a more volatile rate path.

The near term impact is likely to be higher volatility as macro desks reprice the Fed curve into year end and algorithmic flows lean against risk assets on any uptick in rate hike odds, a dynamic that has repeatedly amplified intraday swings across spot Bitcoin, leveraged crypto derivatives and related tokens whenever Fed officials pivot their tone.

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Dogecoin Could Become the Second Dog on the Moon After Snoopy as Whales Accumulate Ahead of SpaceX IPO

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⚔

Dogecoin, the original dog memecoin, is changing hands at $0.105, rallying by 2% over 24 hours, as a wave of whale accumulation collides with one of the most consequential IPO filings in modern financial history.

On-chain data confirms large holders have scooped up 525 million DOGE in just 96 hours, worth approximately $1.99 billion.

This accumulation window overlapped almost exactly with SpaceX submitting its S-1 filing to the SEC, targeting a Nasdaq debut. The launch is targeting June 12 under ticker SPCX at a $1.75 trillion valuation, a figure that would make Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire.

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As we know, Musk’s gravitational pull on DOGE sentiment is well-documented, and SpaceX already holds $1.4 billion in Bitcoin, underscoring the company’s crypto-adjacent positioning heading into its public market debut.

Discover: The Best Crypto to Diversify Your Portfolio

Dogecoin Targets $0.15 Before SpaceX IPO

Analyst identifies the $0.11–$0.12 “golden pocket” as the zone where DOGE has already faced rejection, describing the asset as short-term bullish but embedded in a broader bearish structure. Short-term holders are sitting on elevated profits, raising the risk of real profit-taking at those levels.

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On the downside, immediate support rests near $0.095, or 10% below spot.

Dogecoin (DOGE)
24h7d30d1yAll time

For Dogecoin, it needs whale accumulation to not stop, with SpaceX IPO euphoria bleeding into Musk-adjacent assets. In a good scenario, DOGE would clear $0.12 and target $0.15 if resistance breaks decisively.

The most likely scenario is for DOGE to grind between $0.10 and $0.11, consolidating ahead of a cleaner catalyst.

The 30-day gain of +8% is real. Momentum exists.

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Discover: The Best Token Presales

Maxi Doge to Piggyback the Moon Mission

DOGE, at its current price with a $25.4 billion market cap, offers asymmetry, but not the kind that turns $500 into a life-changing number. The math simply doesn’t work at that size. It’s the gap early-stage memecoin presales are designed to fill.

Maxi Doge ($MAXI) is an Ethereum ERC-20 memecoin built around what its community calls “1000x leverage trading mentality,” a 240-lb canine juggernaut persona that fuses gym-bro culture with on-chain competition mechanics.

The presale has raised $4.7 million at a current price of $0.0002819, with a huge 65% staking APY available to holders. Features include holder-only trading competitions with leaderboard rewards, a Maxi Fund treasury backing liquidity and partnerships, and meme-first viral marketing designed to move fast in social cycles.

Research Maxi Doge before the presale window closes.

The post Dogecoin Could Become the Second Dog on the Moon After Snoopy as Whales Accumulate Ahead of SpaceX IPO appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Binance served Iranian national days before he was sanctioned, report

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Binance served Iranian national days before he was sanctioned, report

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) has revealed that crypto exchange Binance has facilitated billions of dollars more in Iran-linked crypto transfers.

The publication reports that an Iranian financier and self-proclaimed “antisanction” operator, called Babak Zanjani, used Binance to action $850 million worth of transactions in 2024 and 2025. 

Binance compliance documents indicate that Zanjani did most of this from a single account, and that, despite Binance flagging the account multiple times, it was open for at least 15 months.

Zanjani’s most recent transactions appear to have been made in December, and in 2025 alone, he sent $107 million from his digital wallets to Binance accounts. 

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In addition to these activities, WSJ reports that foreign law enforcement agencies have found funds continuing to move throughout 2026 to Iran-linked entities via Binance accounts.

It notes that in the two years preceding the US/Israel war with Iran, Binance has facilitated billions of dollars worth of crypto transactions that were sent to entities linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

WSJ also reports that last March, US Treasury officials met Binance executives to raise concerns over its compliance with its monitorship agreement that was struck in its 2023 plea deal.

According to the publication and the former compliance employees it spoke to, Binance executives tried to shield its operations from the monitors as they were worried that compliance would slow growth.  

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Who is Babak Zanjani?

Zanjani is a former sheepskin trader turned wealthy businessman. Iran sentenced him to death in March 2016 after he was found guilty of embezzling billions of dollars from the country’s National Oil Company. 

His sentence was later commuted in 2024. One year later, he went on to secure a $750 million government contract for his conglomerate, Dotone Group, to build thousands of rail cars for Iran.  

He was first blacklisted by the US in April 2013. Then, in January 2026, he, along with his two UK-registered digital asset firms, Zedcex and Zedxion, were sanctioned by the US for financially backing the Iranian regime and helping it launder funds. 

The US claims Zedcex has processed over $94 billion in transactions.

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Read more: Nobitex users rush for exit after Tehran airstrikes crash Iranian currency

WSJ reports that Zedcex received funds from Iranian oil sales that were sent via banks in Turkey. It then reportedly used its Binance corporate account to transfer funds to IRGC-linked digital wallets.

It made $830 million in total transactions between 2024 and 2025.

Binance compliance reports show that the account triggered internal alerts when it was accessed from Tehran in late 2024, and went on to trigger 12 more by November 2025. 

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Dotone Group hasn’t been sanctioned and is behind enterprises involving logistics, ride-share vehicles, and cryptocurrency ventures, such as BitBank. Crypto analysts have noted that his business empire still mirrors sanction-evading infrastructure. 

Binance says WSJ is reporting “fundamental inaccuracies.”

The publication reported in February 2026 that Binance fired internal investigators who had uncovered suspicious transactions worth $1 billion being sent to Iran-linked entities. 

At the time, Binance demanded that the article be taken down to correct its “false information.” It later sued WSJ.

More recently, a Binance spokesperson told WSJ that its latest article is inaccurate, that Binance didn’t process transactions from sanctioned entities at the time, and that it carried out all appropriate steps. 

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It said, “It appears the overwhelming majority of these transactions have nothing to do with the Binance platform.” 

WSJ noted that Binance wouldn’t answer specific questions about the transactions and the amounts at play. 

In response to WSJ’s latest article, Binance CEO Richard Teng claimed today that WSJ’s reporting “continues to contain fundamental inaccuracies about the facts and Binance’s commitment to a strong compliance framework.” 

Read more: Binance face ID locked out ALS patient for 5 months

He said, “Binance proactively investigated these issues before WSJ outreach. Binance provided these facts to WSJ and it did not print them.”

WSJ reporting led to US investigation 

In March, WSJ reported that the US Department of Justice had launched an investigation into Binance following the publication’s Binance/Iran reporting. 

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Democrat Senator Richard Blumenthal had already written to Binance demanding information on the company’s role in sanction-dodging transactions to Iranian and Russian entities. 

He claimed Binance was acting as a “repeat offender” and revisiting the crimes of its past. 

Binance was fined $4.3 billion in 2023 for failing to implement adequate anti-money-laundering and sanctions checks. Its former CEO, Changpeng Zhao, was sentenced to four months in prison. 

Read more: Binance founder Changpeng Zhao sentenced to 4 months in prison

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As part of this settlement, Binance agreed to onboard a compliance monitor that would ensure the exchange was up to code.

Zhao was pardoned by US President Donald Trump last October. WSJ reports that Binance has enriched the Trump family with $1.2 billion following its backing of World Liberty Financial. 

Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news and investigations, follow us on XBluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.

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IREN Executive Flags Infrastructure as Key Barrier to AI Expansion

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • IREN co-founder Daniel Roberts said AI growth is now limited by infrastructure rather than chips.
  • He identified power, land, cooling, and data centers as the main constraints facing AI expansion.
  • IREN is building a three-layer platform covering infrastructure, compute systems, and software tools.
  • The company has secured about 5 gigawatts of grid-connected capacity across multiple global regions.
  • IREN has expanded from Bitcoin mining into AI infrastructure projects in several countries.

IREN co-founder Daniel Roberts said AI growth now faces limits from infrastructure rather than chips. He shared the view in a detailed post outlining the company’s long-term strategy. The IREN executive pointed to constraints in power, land, and data center capacity.

Roberts said AI demand is expanding faster than physical systems can support. He argued infrastructure shortages now pose the main challenge to scaling AI services.

IREN Outlines Infrastructure-first Strategy for AI Growth

Roberts described IREN’s model as a three-layer platform for AI infrastructure. The layers include physical assets, compute systems, and enterprise software tools.

He said the company currently generates most value from physical and compute infrastructure. He added that software capabilities will strengthen this advantage over time.

“AI demand grows exponentially. Infrastructure doesn’t,” Roberts wrote in the post. He pointed to power supply, cooling systems, and construction timelines as key limits.

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IREN, formerly Iris Energy, has expanded beyond Bitcoin mining operations. The company now focuses on AI infrastructure projects across several global regions.

Roberts said IREN has secured about 5 gigawatts of grid-connected capacity worldwide. These assets span Texas, British Columbia, Oklahoma, Spain, and Australia.

He stated that owning infrastructure and compute systems creates a competitive moat. He also highlighted demand growth in Europe and Asia-Pacific regions.

NVIDIA Deals and Industry Shift Toward AI Infrastructure

IREN has strengthened ties with NVIDIA through a long-term compute agreement. The deal includes a five-year contract valued at $3.4 billion.

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The agreement centers on deploying Blackwell GPUs in Texas-based facilities. Roberts said these deployments will support expanding AI cloud services.

The broader industry has also shifted from crypto mining toward AI workloads. Several companies now repurpose mining sites for high-performance computing.

WhiteFiber announced a separate AI compute agreement valued above $160 million. The contract involves an investment-grade technology customer in France.

The deployment will rely on NVIDIA GPUs and expand WhiteFiber’s European operations. Unlike IREN, WhiteFiber uses third-party data center infrastructure.

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IREN focuses on owning and operating its physical assets directly. This approach differs from competitors relying on leased facilities.

Market reactions reflected the announcements from both companies. WhiteFiber shares rose 22% Thursday and gained another 5% in premarket trading Friday.

IREN shares also increased, rising 10% during Thursday trading. The latest updates follow Roberts’ comments on infrastructure limits shaping AI growth.

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SEC Commissioner Peirce counters views that crypto rule will foster synthetic tokens

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SEC Commissioner Peirce counters views that crypto rule will foster synthetic tokens

The long-awaited U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission rule to begin allowing tokenization of securities — a change that could have profound effects on the financial markets — has been facing the contentious perception it’ll allow synthetic tokens, but a commissioner has taken the unusual step to post statements about the unpublished rule to potentially counter those views.

SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, who had pushed for safe harbors for tokenization well before the arrival of the new chairman under President Donald Trump, issued a pair of statements on social media site X on Thursday and Friday to clarify what she expects from the rule that’s set to emerge soon. Her posts suggested that the proposed rule won’t pave the way for synthetic tokenized securities — third-party tokenization that references a security but doesn’t carry the equity, voting and other rights associated with the security.

Peirce, the commissioner behind the SEC’s Crypto Task Force, wrote that she expects the coming rule would be “limited in scope & would facilitate trading only of digital representations of the same underlying equity security that an investor could purchase in the secondary market today, not synthetics.”

Peirce posted again to explain what she meant by synthetics, directing people to read the SEC’s January statement on tokenized securities, “which distinguishes tokenized versions of issuer-sponsored stocks and of stocks that SEC-registered firms hold for their customers from synthetic instruments that provide exposure to stocks.”

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The flames had been fanned by Bloomberg News reporting this week that predicted the agency was leaning toward including a path for synthetic tokens tradeable on decentralized crypto platforms. Peirce said she appreciates the public’s keen interest in the rule “but not the hyperbole” about it.

Peirce did not return a request for comment about her posts.

The consequential rule will represent the most meaningful step the SEC has taken to-date to forge a new regulatory approach to crypto trading in the U.S. Chairman Paul Atkins has been saying for months that his agency is poised to release the wide-ranging proposals to provide regulatory exemption in the crypto space.

He outlined some of the effort in a March speech at the DC Blockchain Summit, saying the agency was contemplating safe harbors from certain regulatory demands for various crypto activities, including giving startups something like four years of registration exemption “provide developers with a regulatory runway during which they could work to reach maturity”; a “fundraising exemption” for certain crypto assets in which “entrepreneurs could raise up to a defined amount (say $75 million) during any 12-month period”; and an “investment contract safe harbor” to keep certain crypto assets from being defined as a regulated security, with the safe harbor triggering when the issuer finishes all their managerial efforts.

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Atkins said at the time that Commissioner Peirce’s “fingerprints are all over” the SEC’s rulemaking.

While the SEC — alongside its sister agency, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission — has been writing crypto rules, Atkins and CFTC Chairman Mike Selig have said they’re doing so with the understanding that Congress is right behind them with the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act to put some of the same ideas into permanent law.

“Only Congress can ensure that regulation in this area is future-proofed through comprehensive market structure legislation,” Atkins said in March.

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US House Lawmakers Launch Probe into Kalshi, Polymarket Insider Trading

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US House Lawmakers Launch Probe into Kalshi, Polymarket Insider Trading

The chair of the US House of Representatives’ Oversight and Government Reform Committee sent letters to the CEOs of Kalshi and Polymarket, questioning the companies’ response to incidents of insider trading on the platform.

In a Friday X post, Committee Chair James Comer confirmed reports that he had sent letters to Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan and Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour, asking them for internal records on how the companies were handling insider trading. The Kentucky lawmaker said there were concerns in Congress over elected officials using “basic insider knowledge” to profit off the government’s actions.

“More than 80 suspiciously timed trades were placed ahead of Iran military operations,” said Comer. “Politicians and government officials with inside information are placing bets and taking profits. This insider trading must end.”

Source: James Comer

The “suspiciously timed trades” to which Comer was referring included those from a May 13 New York Times report, detailing incidents of prediction market users betting on Israel’s military actions against Iran, US President Donald Trump announcing a ceasefire in the country’s war with Iran and event contracts related to congressional elections.

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Polymarket said in March that it had updated its approach to potential insider trading on the platform, while Kalshi announced in April that it had banned three US politicians for betting on their own races. 

Related: Polymarket team says user funds safe as exploit losses climb above $600K

Cointelegraph reached out to Polymarket and Kalshi for a response on the House inquiry but did not receive an immediate response from either company.

US soldier who allegedly profited from Venezuela bet still in court

In April, the US Justice Department announced a criminal indictment against Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a soldier who was involved in the military operation that led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Prosecutors alleged that Van Dyke used event contracts on Polymarket related to Maduro’s capture to profit by more than $400,000 using classified information.

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Van Dyke pleaded not guilty to the charges, which included commodities fraud and the unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain. He was released on $250,000 bail and limited to traveling between areas of North Carolina, California and New York.

Magazine: ETH bears growling, Tom Lee’s buying, XRP to ‘explode’: Market Moves

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

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Companies keep investing in prediction markets despite legal battle

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Companies keep investing in prediction markets despite legal battle

In this photo illustration, Apps for online prediction market sites are shown on an electronic device on Feb. 25, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois.

Scott Olson | Getty Images

States and the federal government may be battling over who has the power to regulate prediction markets, but the companies building them are chugging along as the platforms continue to experience huge growth.

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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and six states across the country are in lawsuits over who has the jurisdiction to develop regulations on event contracts. Seventeen states in total are challenging companies with prediction markets — like Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase and Robinhood — and one has moved to ban them entirely. 

States are arguing that they have the ability to regulate these platforms due to their sports businesses, which they say are equivalent to gambling. Sports event contracts make up the majority of volume on prediction markets. However, the CFTC argues its right to regulate swaps and derivatives places all of these contracts under its jurisdiction. 

Congress is also stepping in with its own plans. House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman James Comer told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Friday that he is seeking information from Kalshi and Polymarket’s CEOs on their internal efforts to regulate insider trading.

But legal uncertainty isn’t halting the confidence to invest in growing these platforms, based on comments from private companies’ leadership and private ones’ valuations. 

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“There’s a lot of noise around the legal position-setting prediction markets,” said Flutter Entertainment CEO Jeremy Peter Jackson in its earnings call earlier this month. Flutter owns FanDuel Predicts. “Until we get through and understand ultimately what the Supreme Court says, I think we’re going to live with this uncertainty.”

Jackson said his company will continue to invest in market-making on third-party prediction market platforms, a new strategy it unveiled in its last earnings report, despite the legal questions.

People walk by a banner outside of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) for the IPO of Flutter Entertainment, the parent company of FanDuel, on January 29, 2024 in New York City. 

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

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DraftKings CEO Jason Robins said on a May earnings call that he sees the investment in the company’s prediction market platform as a long-term one. 

“Obviously, there’s always the chance that something regulatory wise or other changes, but assuming a consistent environment to what we see today, I expect that we’ll continue to invest in 2027.”

Legal questions aren’t slowing down private company growth either. Kalshi said its valuation is now $22 billion after a recently announced funding round, rising from $11 billion in December. Polymarket’s reportedly $15 billion valuation is up from $9 billion in October. 

Terrence Duffy, CME Group CEO — which helped develop FanDuel Predicts — said on an earnings call last month that while the legal fuss is over sports, other event contracts like on economics, politics and financial predictions are under less scrutiny. That’s why he thinks they’re growing. Bernstein estimates sports contracts will make up only about 30% of volumes by 2030. 

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While he disagrees with the states, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said he understands their frustrations. 

“I would love it if the states didn’t have concerns, but it’s also … not irrational, right?” he said on Robinhood’s April earnings call. “This is a jurisdictional dispute … and this is something that’ll play out in the coming years.”

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.

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Yield surge in ‘risk-free’ treasuries has bond investors on high alert

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Where to watch for risks and opportunities in bond market as Warsh era at Fed begins
Where to watch for risks and opportunities in bond market as Warsh era at Fed begins

U.S. treasury bonds typically occupy a special place in an investor’s portfolio — the asset class against which all other market risk is measured. But a surge in long-dated yields is forcing investors to rethink this assumption.

The yield on the 10-year treasury recently surged to a level it had not seen in over a year, while the 30-year treasury yield this week hit a level it has not seen since 2007 — right before the financial crisis. The moves are being driven by geopolitical conflict and an oil price shock that have rekindled inflation and resulted in a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve will not lower rates at the next meeting, the first since new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh was confirmed with a mandate from President Trump to bring rates down. In fact, traders are now betting there will be no interest rate cut over the remainder of 2026, and that a rate hike is becoming more likely. Warsh was being sworn in by Trump on Friday.

The shift in bond market assumptions is a wake-up call for investors in an asset class that has long been called a “safe haven” due to bonds’ predictable income and guarantee of the return against maturity. HSBC wrote in a note this week that U.S. treasuries are now in a “danger zone.”

On Friday, the 10-year U.S. treasury yield was at 4.57% while the 30-year treasury bond was up to 5.08%.

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CHICAGO – MARCH 28: Traders in the Ten-Year Treasury Note options pit at the Chicago Board of Trade signal offers in a flurry of activity following the announcement by the Federal Open Market Committee that it was raising short term interest rates another .25 percent March 28, 2006 in Chicago, Illinois. Trading in the pit was at a trickle in the moments leading up to the announcement. The raise was the 15th consecutive increase by the Fed and the first since Ben Bernanke took over as chairman of the FOMC.

Scott Olson | Getty Images News | Getty Images

JoAnne Bianco, senior investment strategist at BondBloxx Investment Management, voiced similar concerns on CNBC’s “ETF Edge” podcast this week. “You are calling it the risk-free rate. It is not risk free. There is a lot of risk associated with this,” she said.

“Now the next likely action is they are going to be raising rates at some point, potentially starting later this year,” she said.

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The bond market action leads Bianco to make two recommendations for fixed income-focused investors. While a higher yield offers investors more income, it also punishes bond prices. Bianco suggests investors focus on the intermediate part of the treasuries curve, specifically the 5-year to 7-year range. That part of the bond market lets investors “step in at these higher rates” without the price volatility that has punished holders of long-dated bonds, she said.

She also recommends investors look to opportunities in the bond market that reflect the underlying strength of the U.S. economy and corporate earnings within the investment grade and high yield markets. While it is true that corporate bonds spreads are tight, Bianco said, “they are tight for a reason.”

Corporate fundamentals and recent earnings are strong and many companies in both the investment grade and high-yield market have issued positive guidance.

Within investment grade, Bianco says BBB-rated corporates stand out as the best opportunity, and that is nothing new, she added. During almost any time period, “the coupon income advantage that you get from BBB bonds” has driven complete outperformance versus both the broad U.S. corporate index and the U.S. aggregate bond index. In corporate bonds, income is the dominant driver of total return and BBBs carry a yield premium over high-rated investment grade bonds.

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An income premium comes with a higher degree of default risk, but she said while default risk is an issue investors should always be aware of, the current market environment does not suggest to her there is reason for elevated concern at this point in the economic cycle. With issuer fundamentals currently strong, she says investors are getting the income premium “without the material increase in default risk” that many assume comes with the territory.

She noted that default risk in the BBB segment of the investment grade market, while higher than AAA, is very low — under 0.3% over the past 30 years.

The high-yield market, meanwhile, where yields are as high as 12%, currently features strong average credit quality, as well as strong corporate earnings and business fundamentals from issuers. Bianco noted many issuers are focused on their leverage ratios and interest coverage, and there is more focus on refinancing in the market than on speculative on M&A and leveraged buyout issuance, with the latter having moved more to the private side of the bond market.

“The market is open for companies to refinance and we expect defaults to be well below the long-term average through the rest of the year,” Bianco said.

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Why Minnesota is empowering local banks to fight Wall Street for crypto revenue

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Why Minnesota is empowering local banks to fight Wall Street for crypto revenue

Minnesota financial institutions can no longer afford to remain on the sidelines as Wall Street aggressively captures digital asset infrastructure, driving a state-level legislative push to halt deposit flight and insulate the local economy, a local legislator and a banker told CoinDesk.

“Over the last several years, I’ve consistently heard concerns about the increasing amount of deposit flight from local financial institutions to crypto exchanges and digital asset platforms,” said Rep. Bernadette “Bernie” Perryman (R-St. Augusta).

The lawmaker, who authored the bill recently enacted by Governor Tim Walz, paving the runway for state banks and credit unions to provide crypto custody service, explained that deposit flight has created significant challenges for Minnesota.

“When those dollars leave local institutions to crypto exchanges outside our state, there are fewer opportunities for those funds to be reinvested locally through small business lending, mortgages, and community development,” Perryman said.

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From the state’s bankers’ perspective, the issue is also about remaining competitive, Meggan Schwirtz, chief experience officer at St. Cloud Financial Credit Union, told CoinDesk.

“This is no longer simply a question of ‘belief’ or consumer curiosity,” she said, “it’s a matter of commercial and competitive relevance for financial institutions.”

‘Aggressively positioning’

Schwirtz said the “reality is that large financial institutions and Wall Street firms are aggressively positioning themselves around digital asset infrastructure because they recognize the long-term implications for payments, settlement, custody, and the future movement of value.”

She also said local banks and credit unions could not “afford to ignore that shift if they intend to remain relevant to future generations of consumers.”

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And Schwirtz is not wrong. Wall Street giants are increasingly deepening their crypto exposure through stablecoins and tokenization to stay ahead of the competition in the race to adopt blockchain technology.

A recent Jefferies report found that although stablecoins are unlikely to spark a sudden run on U.S. bank deposits, they could steadily erode bank earnings as they gain traction. The firm estimated that privately-issued digital dollar adoption could drive a 3% to 5% runoff in core deposits over five years, cutting average bank earnings by about 3%.

In fact, tokenization and stablecoins were the main topics at Consensus Miami this year, overshadowing all other crypto-related topics. “We’re moving into a world where essentially the entire economy is going to be tokenized,” said Joseph Lubin, CEO and founder. Meanwhile, Circle SVP of marketing Tim Queenan said institutions are increasingly exploring how to move core financial infrastructure onchain, adding that stablecoins are becoming so embedded in payments that many users no longer even think of themselves as crypto users.

Major milestone

Minnesota recently became the first Midwestern state to pass an explicit, unified legislative framework authorizing both state-chartered commercial banks and credit unions to offer cryptocurrency custody services.

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The new law was signed by Governor Tim Walz last week and is scheduled to come into full force on Aug. 1, after passing with overwhelming bipartisan support in the legislature earlier this month.

Ryan Smith, chief Advocacy Officer at Minnesota Credit Union Network, said that while the passage of the law is vital, it is not the last word on crypto custody regulation.

“Federal requirements for financial institutions that offer these services will have to comply with a wide variety of federal regulations, as cryptocurrency custodians must specifically implement anti-money laundering (AML) programs, file Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs), and conduct enhanced know-your-customer (KYC) diligence.”

While digital assets remain entirely excluded from federal FDIC or NCUA insurance, local institutions are developing private compliance alternatives. Schwirtz confirmed that St. Cloud Financial Credit Union has proactively secured a strategic underwriting partnership with a Lloyd’s of London-backed insurance solution specifically tailored to their custody operations.

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While more work remains to be done, state Representative Steve Elkins (DFL) hailed the new law as a major milestone, marking a significant shift in how digital assets are managed.

“The community banks and credit unions wanted to be able to offer this service for their customers and members as part of a comprehensive array of financial services,” Elkins, one of the three authors of bill HF 3709, told CoinDesk.

The new law coincided with a regulatory clampdown on all crypto ATMs and kiosks across the state. Walz separately signed a bipartisan bill (SF 3868) implementing a statewide ban on the ATMs effective August 1. One of the U.S.’s largest bitcoin ATM providers, Bitcoin Depot, filed for bankruptcy on Monday.

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Cardano governance dispute puts IOG lab at risk

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OpenClaw enforces zero-crypto rule after scam fallout

Cardano governance is in crisis as an 81% stake majority opposes a 32.9 million ADA research funding proposal.

Summary

  • An 81% active stake majority is opposing a 32.9 million ADA proposal to fund Input Output Global’s research lab for another year through Cardano’s treasury.
  • Founder Charles Hoskinson called the vote existential for Cardano’s identity as a science-based blockchain, warning scientists could leave if the proposal fails.
  • The vote runs through June 8, with several dReps demanding competitive open RFP bids rather than an automatic IOG budget renewal.

A Cardano governance crisis has emerged on-chain as an 81% active stake majority is currently opposing a 32.9 million ADA proposal to fund Input Output Global’s core research team for another year. The opposition is led primarily by Japanese delegated representatives who argue the proposal lacks tight, auditable milestones.

“This doesn’t have anything to do with me. This has to do with destroying the entire core of our ecosystem. Cardano is the science coin. That’s our brand,” Charles Hoskinson said in response to the vote.

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Why the IOG vote matters for Cardano’s long-term roadmap

The IOG research lab is responsible for Cardano’s peer-reviewed development approach, including the Ouroboros consensus protocol. A failure to renew its funding would leave the protocol without its primary academic development engine.

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Several dReps want competing teams to bid against IOG through open RFPs rather than automatic renewal. ADA was trading near $0.25, down approximately 60% over the past 200 days.

Crypto.news has reported on Hoskinson’s earlier warning that crypto markets would get “redder,” made during a February 2026 livestream where he positioned Cardano as entering a commercialisation phase.

What the milestone controversy reveals about decentralised governance

Critics of the IOG proposal argue it lacks specific, time-bound deliverables that a decentralised treasury process should require. The sentiment reflects a broader tension in Cardano’s Voltaire governance era between institutional efficiency and community accountability.

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Crypto.news has tracked Hoskinson’s January 2026 warning that White House crypto czar David Sacks should resign if the Clarity Act failed to pass. Both episodes reflect the same impatience with institutional processes that fail to deliver tangible outcomes on a predictable timeline.

The voting period runs through June 8. If the proposal fails, scientists could leave, ending the peer-reviewed research model that defines Cardano’s identity. Crypto.news has covered analysis examining the gap between Hoskinson’s ambitions and Cardano’s on-chain adoption metrics, a tension the governance dispute now makes impossible to ignore.

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