Wintermute is moving into prediction markets as institutional market makers race to dominate event contracts that already clear more than $20 billion a month.

Wintermute, one of crypto’s largest quantitative market makers, has begun providing continuous two way liquidity on several “leading” prediction market platforms, extending its infrastructure into event contracts that straddle both digital assets and traditional macro themes, according to The Block.

The firm told The Block it has already been streaming bilateral buy and sell quotes across multiple venues, where aggregate monthly prediction market trading volume has climbed past $20 billion in 2026, even as liquidity remains “early stage” by institutional standards.

Wintermute itself executes more than $3.5 trillion in annual trading volume across spot, derivatives and DeFi markets, and the new business line is pitched as a way to extend that cross asset machinery into event contracts ranging from elections and macro data prints to crypto specific flows.

Wintermute’s thesis on event contracts

Jake Ostrovskis, Wintermute’s head of OTC trading, argued that the underlying demand in prediction markets already resembles traditional asset classes, with structurally similar flows but thinner books and wider spreads than blue chip futures or options.

“There is clear demand for these markets, but liquidity is still insufficient,” he told The Block, saying Wintermute’s goal is to post continuous bilateral quotes that tighten spreads, deepen books and make the implied probabilities more usable for traders and institutions.

A former chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) responded to the agency’s move to vacate a $5 million settlement with cryptocurrency company Gemini.

In a Wednesday motion filed in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, the CFTC joined the Gemini Trust Company in seeking relief from the judgment of a case initially filed in June 2022. The company reached a $5 million settlement with the CFTC in January 2025 while the agency was under former US President Joe Biden.

“[T]he CFTC’s action in reversing itself on a settled case is extraordinarily unusual,” Tim Massad, a former CFTC chair and research fellow at Harvard Kennedy School, told Cointelegraph. “The explanation seems to be that the staff got it wrong, not that the law was unclear.”

According to the CFTC’s motion, the agency sought relief based on claims that a whistleblower was found “not to be credible” and evidence was concealed by the commission’s previous leadership.

The motion alleged that the whistleblower, Gemini’s former chief operating officer, made false statements related to the company’s Bitcoin futures pre-certification review. The CFTC’s complaint against Gemini included allegations that the company reported inflated trading activity and volumes, misrepresenting user demand.

“Based on the CFTC’s comprehensive review, the CFTC concurs that there were significant deficiencies in [the Division of Enforcement’s] evidence and the Complaint should not have been filed,” said the filing.

Amended motion by CFTC filed in SDNY on Thursday. Source: PACER

Related: Prediction markets legal battles heat up in Minnesota, Rhode Island

Although the CFTC and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dropped several enforcement actions and investigations into crypto companies after Donald Trump assumed the office of the presidency, there had been no filings on the public docket in Gemini’s case since January 6, 2025.

Massad added:

“I know of nothing like this happening before, and I think the public deserves a better explanation.”

Gemini co-founders tied to the current administration

Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, co-founders of Gemini, each donated $1 million to Trump’s 2024 election campaign. The two have also met with Trump and attended White House events, including the signing ceremony for the stablecoin-related GENIUS Act. 

Source: Brian Quintenz

According to a text chain made public in September 2025 by former CFTC commissioner Brian Quintenz, Tyler Winklevoss raised the CFTC’s litigation as Quintenz was set to be considered for Trump’s nomination to head the agency. Trump later withdrew Quintenz’s nomination, leading to his pick, Michael Selig, being confirmed as chair and the agency’s current sole commissioner.

Notably, some of the language in the CFTC’s motion to vacate was similar to that in the Winklevoss text chain, including “abuse” of regulatory authority and “false whistleblower.” Cointelegraph reached out to Gemini for comment but did not receive an immediate response.

Magazine: HYPE chases $100 target, ETH could dump below $1800: Market Moves

Bitcoin (BTC) traders have placed new buy orders near $70,000 as the price approaches a key liquidity zone. Order-book data shows more than $500 million in bid liquidity between $72,000 and $70,000, creating a demand zone that could shape BTC’s next move.

BTC buy bids form key support zone

Data from CoinGlass shows dip buyers have placed 6,235 BTC in bid liquidity between $72,000 and $70,000. At current prices, the buy orders are worth roughly $443 million.

The largest cluster sits directly above $70,000, where buyers are positioned to absorb the current selling pressure. Bid liquidity refers to limit buy orders waiting below the market price. When price trades into those orders, it can slow a decline and trigger a sharp rebound if demand absorbs available BTC supply.

BTC/USD, one-day chart, buy liquidity analysis. Source: Velo chart

Below $70,000, the next notable pocket of demand sits at $68,505, where traders have placed another 1,012 BTC worth approximately $69 million. Outside that level, the order book thins considerably, with few visible bids below $68,500.

Meanwhile, liquidation heatmap data shows about $2 billion in cumulative long positions at risk near $70,000, compared to more than $5 billion in short positions around $78,000. Once BTC taps the bid cluster near $70,000, the larger liquidity pool may trigger a sharp rebound toward overhead liquidation zones. 

BTC liquidation map. Source: CoinGlass

Related: Bitcoin falls out of the global top 10 assets as market cap dips below $1.5T

RSI hits three-month low as daily BTC trend turns bearish

Bitcoin’s daily trend turned bearish after losing support at $74,800, confirming a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The price is trading inside a descending channel and is currently testing support near the lower boundary around $72,000–$73,000.

The relative strength index (RSI) has fallen to roughly 33, its lowest level since Feb. 24. Momentum has stayed below the neutral 50 level throughout the recent decline, suggesting sellers still control the short-term price action.

BTC/USD, one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Crypto trader Ardi outlined a similar view. The analyst said the $74,500–$75,500 region now acts as resistance across multiple time frames. A rejection from that area could keep focus on the $71,500 region, while a move through channel resistance near $76,000 may challenge the ongoing downtrend.

Options markets show investors have also been preparing for a move toward $70,000. According to Glassnode, traders spent nearly $10 million on put options with a $70,000 strike during the recent dip. 

Put options rise in value when prices fall, making them a common hedge against downside risk. Recent flows show some easing in that protection demand as traders lock in profits, though the concentration of hedging activity highlights how closely the market is watching the $70,000 level.

BTC options market analysis at $70,000. Source: Glassnode/X

Related: Bitcoin’s major holders halt buys as demand slows: CryptoQuant

The U.S. derivatives watchdog is edging crypto markets closer to a 24/7 trading model, signaling a more permissive posture toward crypto-based derivatives. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued an order granting Kalshi approval to list Bitcoin perpetual futures tied to the spot price, while also granting Coinbase a no-action position for similar BTC-based contracts. The moves come as the agency weighs how prediction markets and traditional futures frameworks can coexist with rapidly evolving digital assets.

The CFTC’s Friday notice confirms Kalshi’s BTCPERP perpetual futures contract, designed to track Bitcoin’s spot price and settle accordingly. The regulator emphasized that the approval rested on Kalshi’s representations about the contract’s terms, the underlying market, and compliance with the Commodity Exchange Act and the Commission’s core principles for designated contract markets. In parallel, Coinbase was granted a no-action stance for its own BTC perpetual futures, underscoring a willingness to explore crypto derivatives within a regulated framework.

Paul Grewal, Coinbase’s chief legal officer, described the decision as a “massive first for the industry” in a post on X, noting the broader trend toward more permissive access to crypto derivatives. Coinbase previously expanded into perpetual futures for non-U.S. traders in March, broadening the reach of crypto derivatives on mainstream trading venues.

The agency didn’t stop at Kalshi and Coinbase. In a separate notice, the CFTC contrasted the suitability of 24/7 trading for crypto-based derivatives with more traditional markets, like agriculture, where 24/7 activity may be less appropriate given regional customer bases and other market dynamics. The regulator highlighted that derivatives referencing crypto assets may be well-suited for around-the-clock trading due to their digital infrastructure and global reach. At the same time, it signaled a cautious stance on applying 24/7 models uniformly across all asset classes.

Industry echoes of that sentiment arrived from other corners of the market. CME Group has signaled intent to offer 24/7 crypto futures trading, subject to regulatory review, signaling that a broader ecosystem shift toward continuous trading could be on the horizon.

Key takeaways

• Kalshi wins approval for BTCPERP: The CFTC approved a Bitcoin perpetual futures contract on Kalshi’s prediction-market platform, marking a notable step toward exchange-like crypto derivatives on the regulatory map.
• Coinbase receives no-action relief: The exchange can explore BTC perpetual futures under the agency’s current stance, signaling growing U.S. legitimacy for retail crypto derivatives.
• 24/7 trading under scrutiny: The CFTC separately underscored that crypto derivatives may be better suited to around-the-clock trading than some traditional markets, while acknowledging not all asset classes share this feature.
• Regulatory and market dynamics: The developments occur amid ongoing regulatory repositioning and broader industry moves toward 24/7 crypto trading, including CME Group’s potential entry into the space.
• Political context: The evolving framework unfolds alongside political commentary on CFTC authority and jurisdiction over prediction markets, with nominations for commissioners still outstanding.

Kalshi’s BTCPERP: a milestone for prediction markets meeting crypto futures

The CFTC’s approval of BTCPERP places Kalshi at a unique crossroads between prediction markets and crypto derivatives. By tying a perpetual contract to Bitcoin’s spot price, Kalshi offers a mechanism for participants to speculate on crypto prices without owning the underlying asset. The regulator’s decision rested on Kalshi’s representations about contract terms, market structure, and compliance with applicable laws and core principles for designated contract markets. This move positions Kalshi as a platform that could operate with a more derivatives-exchange-like footprint within the U.S. regulatory framework.

As Kalshi moves forward, market participants will be watching how liquidity, margining, and settlement mechanics evolve in a framework that combines elements of prediction markets with perpetual futures dynamics. The BTCPERP contract promises to unlock new hedging and speculation avenues for both retail and institutional users who want continuous exposure to Bitcoin’s price movements.

Coinbase’s no-action stance: signaling incremental openness for U.S. crypto rails

Coinbase’s no-action relief, paired with Kalshi’s approval, signals a cautious but notable expansion of permissible crypto derivatives in the United States. The decision aligns with Coinbase’s broader strategy to offer perpetual futures products to diverse client bases while navigating the regulatory environment. Paul Grewal hailed the development as a turning point for the industry, underscoring the potential for regulated, 24/7 access to crypto derivatives on mainstream platforms. This follows Coinbase’s March rollout of stock perpetual futures for non-U.S. traders, illustrating a broader push into continuous, instrument-driven trading outside traditional stock markets.

24/7 trading: regulatory nuance, market implications

The CFTC’s second notice clarifies that the suitability of around-the-clock trading for derivatives is not universal. Crypto assets, with their digital infrastructure and global reach, may be well-suited to 24/7 trading, the agency contends. Traditional markets—such as agricultural commodities—pose distinct considerations tied to regional customer bases and physical delivery dynamics, which may complicate non-stop trading schemes. The nuanced stance suggests regulators are weighing the benefits of continuous liquidity and accessibility against the risks of around-the-clock activity in more service-heavy or regionally segmented markets.

Beyond Kalshi and Coinbase, the broader market is watching CME Group’s public statements about 24/7 crypto futures trading as an indicator of where the mainstream exchange ecosystem might converge. Pending regulatory review, the industry could see a broader rollout of continuous trading across multiple venues, potentially reshaping liquidity, risk management, and price discovery for crypto derivatives in the United States.

Regulatory context and political backdrop

The regulatory narrative surrounding crypto derivatives remains active. In parallel to these developments, U.S. President Donald Trump publicly supported the CFTC’s authority over prediction markets in a social media post, reflecting ongoing debates about jurisdiction and enforcement. The CFTC chair, Michael Selig, remains the sole commissioner in a five-member panel, with no announced nominations to fill the other seats as of Friday. The political and regulatory dynamics suggest continued scrutiny and potential shifts as more platforms seek to offer crypto-based derivatives under a U.S. regulatory umbrella.

As the year unfolds, observers will be monitoring how these approvals translate into real-world activity: Will Kalshi’s BTCPERP attract meaningful liquidity? How will Coinbase’s no-action status influence retail adoption and platform competition? And what further clarifications will regulators provide on the contours of 24/7 crypto trading versus traditional markets?

In the meantime, the market should brace for continued evolution in the U.S. framework for crypto derivatives, with investors and traders watching for further platform approvals, margin and settlement standards, and any forthcoming policy guidance that could redefine the boundaries of permissible crypto exposure on national exchanges.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has approved Kalshi to launch the first federally regulated Bitcoin perpetual futures contract in the United States, opening a new path for crypto derivatives trading onshore.

According to a CFTC announcement released Friday, Kalshi received approval to list and trade a Bitcoin-referenced perpetual futures contract under the ticker BTCPERP. The regulator said the approval requires the exchange to maintain the product in compliance with the Commodity Exchange Act and other applicable regulations.

The decision gives U.S. traders access to a type of crypto derivative that has largely been offered through offshore venues.

Unlike traditional futures contracts, perpetual futures do not expire, allowing traders to keep positions open indefinitely while speculating on the future price of an asset.

Kalshi chief executive Tarek Mansour said in a statement published on the company’s website that the launch represents the firm’s next step beyond prediction markets and into regulated derivatives trading. Mansour said federally regulated perpetual futures could improve risk management and capital allocation for U.S. businesses.

The approval comes as Kalshi continues to expand its role in financial markets while facing multiple regulatory and political battles linked to prediction markets.

The approval opens a regulated U.S. market for Bitcoin perpetual futures

For years, perpetual futures have become one of the most heavily traded products in global crypto markets, particularly on exchanges operating outside the United States. Their popularity stems from the ability to gain leveraged exposure to Bitcoin and other digital assets without dealing with contract expiration dates.

Alongside Kalshi’s approval, the CFTC issued a no-action letter to Coinbase on Friday covering certain perpetual futures products the exchange plans to offer through its Coinbase Financial Markets subsidiary.

According to the regulator, those contracts will be routed through Coinbase Bermuda and treated as foreign futures products. The no-action relief allows Coinbase Financial Markets to accept digital assets, including Bitcoin, Ether, and stablecoins, as margin collateral for eligible customers.

The CFTC’s twin announcements arrived days after President Donald Trump highlighted crypto perpetuals in a May 28 Truth Social post. Trump argued that previous regulators had pushed Bitcoin, crypto perpetuals, and innovation offshore before his administration reversed that trend.

“Gary Gensler and the “Anti-Crypto Army” nearly DESTROYED the American Crypto Industry by driving Bitcoin, Crypto Perpetuals, and INNOVATION offshore, but “TRUMP” SAVED IT.”

While perpetual futures can offer traders substantial gains from relatively small market moves, industry participants have long noted that leverage can also amplify losses during periods of volatility.

Kalshi expands beyond prediction markets amid regulatory disputes

The Bitcoin perpetuals approval lands during a period of rapid growth and heightened scrutiny for Kalshi’s business.

Earlier this month, the company filed a federal lawsuit against Minnesota seeking to block a state law that would prohibit prediction market platforms from operating in the state beginning Aug. 1.

Kalshi argued in its complaint that the Commodity Exchange Act grants the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts and that Minnesota’s law improperly interferes with federally regulated exchanges.

The legal challenge followed a separate lawsuit filed by the CFTC against Minnesota. As previously reported by crypto.news, the regulator described the state’s legislation as one of the most aggressive attempts by a state government to restrict federally regulated prediction markets.

At the same time, Kalshi has increased its policy engagement efforts through Americans for Fair Markets, a newly launched advocacy group backed by the company. The organization, which counts former White House deputy chief of staff Taylor Budowich as a strategic advisor, said it plans to advocate for federal policies affecting prediction markets and regulated exchanges.

According to the group, its priorities include know-your-customer requirements, insider trading prohibitions, full CFTC funding, and restrictions on contracts related to war, death, terrorism, and assassination.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has greenlit the nation’s first bitcoin perpetual futures contract on a regulated exchange, marking a watershed moment for domestic crypto derivatives trading.

The CFTC announced Friday it had approved an unnamed regulated exchange to list and trade bitcoin perpetual futures contracts, ending the offshore monopoly on these high-volume derivatives instruments. The approval follows months of signals from CFTC leadership that the agency would move aggressively to onshore crypto perpetuals, which allow traders to speculate on Bitcoin (BTC) price movements indefinitely without expiration dates.

“Having true perpetual contracts in the United States is a major step forward in delivering on President Trump’s goal of cementing America as the crypto capital of the world,” CFTC Chairman Mike Selig wrote in an opinion piece published Friday at CoinDesk. Selig argued the contracts represent “a foundational risk management and price discovery tool in the global crypto asset markets”.

Regulatory Shift Under Trump Administration

The announcement comes days after President Donald Trump posted on social media that the previous administration “nearly DESTROYED the American Crypto Industry by driving Bitcoin, Crypto Perpetuals, and INNOVATION offshore, but ‘TRUMP’ SAVED IT”. Selig echoed this sentiment in March, stating he aimed to repair damage that “drove a lot of these firms and the liquidity offshore”.

Perpetual futures contracts differ from traditional futures by having no expiration date, allowing positions to remain open indefinitely through a funding rate mechanism that keeps contract prices aligned with spot prices. These instruments have dominated offshore crypto trading since 2016, with perpetuals accounting for over 70% of centralized exchange volume. In 2025, perpetual futures trading volume reached $61.7 trillion, up 29% from 2024.

Kalshi and Polymarket Race for Market Share

While the CFTC did not identify which exchange received approval, prediction market platform Kalshi had announced plans to launch cryptocurrency perpetual futures in April, with co-founder Luana Lopes Lara celebrating regulatory progress since December 2024. Kalshi secured a CFTC margin trading license and scheduled an April 27 launch event in New York City for its perpetual futures product, internally codenamed “Timeless”.

The platform planned to offer at least 10x leverage on Bitcoin and other assets, with U.S. dollar collateral at launch and Bitcoin trading to follow. Rival platform Polymarket also entered the perpetual futures market in April, intensifying competition for the lucrative derivatives sector.

Selig wrote Friday that the CFTC’s approach would “limit excessive leverage, volatility and systemic risk”. The announcement carries weight as agency guidance rather than formal rulemaking, meaning future CFTC leadership could reverse the policy without congressional action. The shift aligns with broader CFTC regulatory changes under the Trump administration, including joint SEC-CFTC coordination on crypto asset taxonomy and expanded tokenized collateral frameworks.

Crypto.com and OG Prediction Markets have signed a multi year global partnership with the United States SailGP Team, ahead of this week’s New York Sail Grand Prix, bringing CFTC regulated prediction markets directly into elite foiling yacht racing for the first time.

With the New York Sail Grand Prix set to light up the city’s harbor this weekend, the U.S. SailGP Team has named Crypto.com and its OG Prediction Markets platform as Global Partners, tying a top tier U.S. sailing franchise to a CFTC regulated crypto backed prediction venue.

Under the multi year deal, Crypto.com becomes the team’s Official Crypto Exchange while OG is designated Official Prediction Market Partner, with both brands to appear on the American F50 catamaran, race kit and team environments at SailGP regattas worldwide.

“Crypto.com has always backed those who compete at the highest level — and the U.S. SailGP Team is exactly that,” said Steve Humenik, EVP and Global Head of Legal for Prediction and Capital Markets at Crypto.com. “The OG Prediction Markets partnership reflects our long term commitment to a diverse offering of sports prediction markets, including highly technical and data driven sports like SailGP,” he added, arguing that the tie up helps make “the U.S. the Prediction Markets Capital of the World.”

The deal gives OG a highly visible entry point into a league that is already positioning itself as “Formula 1 on the water,” with 50 foot foiling catamarans capable of speeds above 60 mph racing across iconic global venues and beaming data to broadcasters in real time. SailGP says its tracking systems capture hundreds of data points per second per boat, a rich stream that underpins live odds making and now, through OG, fan facing prediction markets linked directly to U.S. team performance.

“Having Crypto.com and OG Prediction Markets commit to a multi year Global Partnership is a tremendous statement of confidence in where the U.S. SailGP Team and this league are heading,” said Mike Buckley, Team Principal, CEO and Co Owner of the U.S. SailGP Team. Buckley called the agreement “monumental,” stressing that “the ability for fans to engage with our races through OG’s prediction platform is just the beginning of what we’ll build together.”

For Crypto.com, the SailGP partnership extends a push beyond conventional spot trading into derivatives and event contracts, following the February rollout of OG as a social prediction app where the first one million users can earn up to $500 in rewards for trading real world outcomes. It also builds on the exchange’s growing sports sponsorship portfolio and could help drive volume in regulated event markets that some analysts see evolving into a multibillion dollar asset class.

Crypto.com’s native token cronos is currently tracked on the Crypto.com market cap page, alongside major assets like bitcoin and ethereum, underscoring how deeply the exchange is embedded in both trading and fan facing products. In a previous crypto.com launch report, the company framed OG as a way for sports fans to “act on uncertainty, capitalize on the future, and celebrate triumph” in a regulated environment.

Prediction markets are also gaining traction elsewhere in crypto, with platforms like Polymarket continuing to prove that trading on probabilities can double as a powerful information aggregator. In a related crypto.news feature, OG was cast as Crypto.com’s bid to bring that model into a regulated U.S. framework, marrying trading mechanics with social leaderboards and sports obsessed communities.

As the new livery hits the water in New York and co branded campaigns roll out across digital channels, both sides are betting that SailGP’s high speed, data heavy format can turn sailing into fertile ground for prediction market adoption. Whether fans treat OG’s contracts more like trading or like wagering, the partnership signals that the line between sports betting, derivatives and crypto native prediction markets is getting thinner with each new deal.