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Bitcoin Price Shows Bottom Signal Not Seen Since 2022

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Bitcoin Supply In Profit

Bitcoin has attempted to recover in recent sessions, but upward momentum has stalled as the market waits for a clearer direction. Price remains range-bound after a sharp correction, frustrating short-term traders. 

Despite this pause, historical indicators suggest a bottom may be forming. Past cycles show similar conditions often precede renewed recovery phases.

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Bitcoin Profitable Supply Hits 2022 Level

Bitcoin’s recent decline triggered a signal last seen during the 2022 bear market. The percentage of supply in profit fell to around 50%, meaning half of all circulating BTC is now underwater. This threshold has historically coincided with market bottoms rather than prolonged sell-offs.

When profitable supply compresses to these levels, selling incentives weaken. Holders become less willing to realize losses, reducing sell-side pressure. In previous cycles, this dynamic encouraged investors to hold through volatility, allowing the price to stabilize before recovery resumed.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Bitcoin Supply In Profit
Bitcoin Supply In Profit. Source: Glassnode

Lower prices also attract fresh capital. Value-oriented buyers tend to enter when downside risk appears limited relative to upside potential. This influx of new demand has historically helped revive Bitcoin recoveries once profitable supply falls to or below the 50% mark.

Why Is Bitcoin Likely To Bounce Back?

Macro indicators reinforce the bottoming narrative. The Pi Cycle Top Indicator, which compares the 111-day moving average to a doubled 350-day moving average, remains far from signaling BTC overheating. This indicator historically flags major tops when the shorter average crosses the higher threshold.

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Currently, the opposite setup is unfolding. The shorter moving average is diverging below the longer one, signaling cooling conditions rather than excess speculation. In past cycles, such divergence often preceded sustained rebounds as Bitcoin reset from overheated levels.

Bitcoin Pi Cyle Top Indicator
Bitcoin Pi Cyle Top Indicator. Source: Glassnode

This cycle differs from prior ones. Since March 2023, Bitcoin has maintained a macro uptrend without excessive overheating. Gradual price appreciation limited speculative excess, making this the first clear bottom signal in nearly three years rather than a sharp capitulation-driven low.

BTC Price Levels To Watch

In the short term, Bitcoin is holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near $63,007. At the time of writing, BTC trades around $68,905, maintaining support despite repeated tests. However, price remains capped below the $71,672 resistance, limiting immediate upside.

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If on-chain signals continue holding and inflows strengthen, Bitcoin could break above $71,672. Such a move would open the path toward $78,676. Stronger confirmation of recovery would come only if BTC reclaims $85,680 as a sustained support level.

Bitcoin Price Analysis.
Bitcoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Risks remain on the downside due to the shifting market structure. The short-term holder to long-term holder supply ratio has moved above its upper band. This reflects growing short-term participation, often linked to higher volatility. 

Bitcoin STH/LTH Supply Ratio
Bitcoin STH/LTH Supply Ratio. Source: Glassnode

This would hurt Bitcoin’s price chances of crossing the $71,672 barrier, continuing its consolidation. Even if BTC does push past said resistance, the selling will pull it back down towards $63,000, invalidating the bullish thesis.

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Crypto World

Will ETH & SOL bounce back?

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Ethereum, Solana price prediction: Will ETH & SOL bounce back? - 2

Crypto markets are definitely under pressure. The year got off to a shaky start, and weakness has continued as traders remain cautious in a low-liquidity, macro-uncertain environment. That’s left Ethereum and Solana stuck in corrective moves for now.

Let’s take a closer look at ETH and SOL, analyzing recent price moves and network fundamentals to gauge their near-term price predictions.

Summary

  • Crypto markets remain volatile and risk-off as of February 10, 2026, with large-cap coins like Ethereum and Solana trading below last year’s highs.
  • ETH is around $2,016, showing short-term bearish momentum, with key support at $1,760 and resistance near $2,150–$2,500.
  • SOL trades near $84 in a clear downtrend, with short-term support at $80–$90, major downside at $70–$65, and resistance at $100, keeping the SOL outlook cautious.

Current market scenario

As of February 10, crypto markets remain unsettled. Volatility is elevated, sentiment is fragile, and rallies are quickly met with selling pressure. Many large-cap coins are still trading below last year’s highs, highlighting a risk-off environment.

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Altcoins have borne the brunt of selling, with investors either rotating into cash or waiting for confirmation of trends. Ethereum and Solana remain technically bearish for now, although network activity continues in the background.

Ethereum price prediction

Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading around $2,016, having failed to hold above the key $2,100 resistance zone. Year-over-year, ETH is down roughly 20–25%, showing the ongoing pressure on large-cap altcoins. Short-term momentum hasn’t helped either, with the ETH price falling 0.9% in the last 24 hours and 11.6% over the past week.

Ethereum, Solana price prediction: Will ETH & SOL bounce back? - 2
ETH 1-day chart, February 2026 | Source: crypto.news

Technically, the short-term trend is still bearish. On Sunday, a bearish pin bar showed up just under $2,100, meaning sellers are in control there. If price can’t get past this level, the next downside target is around $1,760, which acted as support the last time price dipped this low.

From a fundamentals perspective, things are still solid for Ethereum. Developers are busy, users are active, and Layer-2 adoption keeps expanding. These network improvements ease congestion and boost throughput, even if the ETH price doesn’t show it yet. They remain a key part of the longer-term ETH forecast.

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If buyers step in and push Ethereum over $2,150 for a daily close, the bearish trend would start to fade. After that, a move toward $2,500 looks more likely.

Solana price prediction

Solana (SOL) is currently trading near $84. While the SOL price is up 0.5% on the day, the bigger picture remains ugly, with the token down nearly 18.4% over the past week.

Ethereum, Solana price prediction: Will ETH & SOL bounce back? - 3
SOL 1-day chart, February 2026 | Source: crypto.news

From a technical standpoint, Solana is still in a clear downtrend. Price recently dropped below a descending channel and is now holding in the $80–$90 zone as short-term support. Trend-wise, nothing much has changed— lower highs and lower lows remain dominant.

If this support breaks, the next downside area to watch is $70–$65, which marks the last strong demand zone before liquidity dries up. On the flip side, $100 is the key resistance bulls need to reclaim to shift sentiment.

For now, the SOL outlook remains cautious, at least until we see buyers show real strength.

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Final thoughts

Right now, Ethereum and Solana aren’t having an easy time. Bears are in control in the short term, but Ethereum’s bigger picture is still intact. Until the price can get back above key resistance levels, rallies are likely to be shaky. Patience and waiting for confirmation will be important for anyone following ETH or SOL.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News & Price Indexes

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Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News & Price Indexes

Bitcoin’s sharp correction at the start of the month may represent a critical “halfway point” in the current bear market, according to Kaiko Research.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $59,930 on Friday, marking its lowest level since October 2024, before the re-election of US President Donald Trump, according to TradingView data

The decline suggests the market has moved out of the euphoric post-halving phase and into what Kaiko described as a historically typical bear market period that lasts about 12 months before a new accumulation phase begins.

In a research note shared with Cointelegraph on Monday, Kaiko said Bitcoin’s 32% crash was the most significant correction since the 2024 Bitcoin halving and may mark the “halfway point” of the current bear market.

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“Analysis of on-chain metrics and comparative performance across tokens reveals a market approaching critical technical support levels that will determine whether the four-year cycle framework remains intact,” Kaiko said.

Bitcoin halving cycles, all-time chart. Source: Kaiko Research

Related: Trend Research cuts ETH exposure by over 400K as liquidation risk rises

Kaiko’s report highlighted several emerging onchain bear market signals, including a 30% drop in aggregate spot crypto trading volume across the 10 leading centralized exchanges, from around $1 trillion in October 2025 down to $700 billion in November.

At the same time, combined Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) futures open interest declined from $29 billion to $25 billion over the past week, a 14% reduction that Kaiko said reflects ongoing deleveraging.

Open interest for BTC and ETH futures, top 10 exchanges. Source: Kaiko Research

While Bitcoin has realigned with the historical four-year halving cycle since the beginning of the year, determining the depth of the current bear market is complex, as “many catalysts that fueled BTC’s rally to $126,000 are still in effect,” said Shawn Young, chief analyst, MEXC Research.

“With oversold indicators emerging on multiple timeframes, the rebound conversation around BTC is more a question of when, not if,” Young said, adding that Bitcoin may be entering a new cycle that will only become clear over the next year.

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Related: Binance adds $300M in Bitcoin to SAFU reserve during market dip

Is $60,000 the bear market bottom?

The key question for investors is whether the dip to $60,000 represents the low of the current bear market. The level roughly aligns with Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, which has historically acted as long-term support.

Still, more market volatility is expected in the absence of crypto-specific market catalysts, Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen, told Cointelegraph, adding:

“With that said, it is still very hard to say if it means we are going back to the conventional 4-year cycle. I have seen many prominent figures in the space air the idea, but equally many who do not think so.”

However, Kaiko pointed to a 52% retracement from Bitcoin’s previous all-time high being “unusually shallow” compared to previous bear market cycles.

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A 60% to 68% retracement would “align more closely” with historical drawdowns, which implies a Bitcoin cycle bottom around $40,000 to $50,000, Kaiko said.

Source: Michaël van de Poppe

Still, some market participants argue that $60,000 already marked a local bottom. Analyst and MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe called the crash to $60,000 the local market bottom for Bitcoin’s price, citing a record low in investor sentiment and a critical low in the relative strength index, which sank to values last seen in 2018 and 2020.

Magazine: Would Bitcoin survive a 10-year power outage?