Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research Geoffrey Kendrick says bitcoin BTC$67,073.08 may have already put in its low for the current market cycle, arguing that a combination of improving investor flows, corporate buying and easing macroeconomic pressures points to a stronger recovery ahead.

The latest call marks a shift in sentiment after several months in which crypto markets struggled with rising geopolitical tensions, concerns about inflation and persistent outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs.)

Last Friday, Kendrick told clients he believed bitcoin’s decline to roughly $59,000 represented the cycle low. At the time, however, he outlined three developments he wanted to see before gaining more confidence in that view: renewed bitcoin purchases by Strategy (MSTR), a return to positive ETF inflows and continued weakness in oil prices.

By Monday, all three had materialized.

Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, disclosed that it purchased another 1,587 BTC last week. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted net inflows of $86 million on Friday after a stretch of notable redemptions. Oil prices also continued to move lower, reducing concerns that higher energy costs could push inflation and bond yields upward.

The rest of the Clarity Act depends on that guarantee, because there is no digital asset market to regulate if the people who build it cannot afford to build it in the U.S. The provision survived the committee markup intact, despite a filed amendment that would have gutted it, and it must stay in through the final vote, fully and without dilution.

Here is why this matters to people who will never read a word of the statute. The engineers who write this software, from core Solana contributors to the designers of new DeFi protocols, publish code that anyone in the world can download and use. They hold no money. They cannot freeze an account or move funds, because they never touch them. Treating a software developer like a bank teller makes about as much sense as calling an email app’s engineer a mail carrier. Treasury’s 2019 FinCEN guidance already recognized that merely providing software or network tools used by money transmitters does not, by itself, make someone a money transmitter. The BRCA aligns the criminal code with that standard.

When laws are murky, regulators and prosecutors fill the gap. Treasury has pursued builders who wrote and released software but never held a customer’s assets. The conviction of Tornado Cash developer Roman Storm for conspiring to operate an unlicensed money transmitting business is the case people know, and it fits a pattern that should worry anyone who cares about American innovation. Cases like it are already pushing developers overseas.

Standard Chartered is projecting a major expansion of decentralized finance activity tied to tokenized assets, forecasting that the total value of tokenized assets actively used in DeFi could rise from today’s small base to roughly $2.7 trillion by the end of 2030.

In a research note released on Monday, Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said the growth would be powered by two streams: tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) finding their way into onchain lending, liquidity and trading venues, and crypto-native assets being routed through DeFi protocols.

Key takeaways

• Standard Chartered expects tokenized assets active in DeFi to grow 37x to about $2.7 trillion by 2030.
• Only a small portion of currently circulating stablecoins and tokenized RWAs are used in DeFi today, according to the bank.
• Standard Chartered forecasts the share of tokenized value used in DeFi to increase to 30% by 2030, from around 3.5% currently.
• The bank sees Uniswap as a plausible hub for tokenized markets as more assets move onchain.
• Other industry voices warn that tokenization alone does not ensure liquidity or unified markets, and may increase fragmentation.

Standard Chartered’s 2030 DeFi tokenization forecast

Kendrick’s central estimate is that the amount of tokenized assets “active in DeFi” will expand by a factor of 37 by the end of 2030. He framed DeFi protocols as the next major channel for wealth-building and scaling exposure to onchain assets.

The bank’s assumptions start from a relatively low present-day level of DeFi participation. Kendrick said only about 3% of stablecoins and roughly 10% of tokenized RWAs are currently used in DeFi. From there, Standard Chartered projected a substantial shift in utilization: the proportion of tokenized assets used in DeFi should rise to about 30% by the end of 2030, up from around 3.5% at present.

While the directional logic is straightforward—more tokenization could mean more onchain activity—Standard Chartered’s own math implies a demanding pathway. Reaching the $2.7 trillion outcome would require both rapid growth in the underlying stock of onchain assets and a steep increase in the fraction of tokenized value actually routed into DeFi protocols.

Previous RWA outlook, and why DeFi adoption is the crux

The forecast builds on earlier work from Standard Chartered, including a previous projection that non-stablecoin tokenized RWAs could reach $2 trillion by the end of 2028. That earlier view highlighted tokenized money-market funds and US equities as major components of projected growth.

However, Monday’s note puts the spotlight on utilization rather than issuance. Tokenization may increase the total addressable market, but investors ultimately benefit from an ecosystem where tokenized assets can be accessed, traded, and used efficiently—often through DeFi infrastructure.

This is where Standard Chartered’s numbers become both persuasive and challenging. A near ninefold rise in the share of tokenized value used in DeFi would be required to support the $2.7 trillion estimate, suggesting that liquidity routing, custody, compliance frameworks, and market-making would all need to evolve alongside the growth of tokenized supply.

Liquidity fragmentation remains a key concern

Some market participants have cautioned that tokenization does not automatically solve liquidity and market-structure problems. Axis CEO Chris Kim previously told Cointelegraph that issuing “the same asset” across multiple blockchains and formats can lead to siloed liquidity, pricing gaps, and higher costs—factors that can limit how easily tokenized assets trade even as overall market size increases.

Similarly, Oya Celiktemur, Ondo Finance’s sales director for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, said at Paris Blockchain Week in April that tokenizing an illiquid asset does not “magically” make it liquid. The implication for Standard Chartered’s outlook is clear: the path to a larger DeFi share likely depends on whether market design and distribution reduce fragmentation rather than amplify it.

Why Uniswap could matter for tokenized markets

Kendrick also pointed to decentralized exchanges as potential distribution and liquidity layers for tokenized assets. In his view, Uniswap could develop into a key hub for trading tokenized markets as more of these assets move onto public blockchains.

He cited Uniswap’s scale, its brand recognition, and its long operational history through multiple crypto market cycles. Kendrick argued these strengths could be especially relevant to traditional financial institutions, which are likely to prioritize security, reliability, and established operational risk management when integrating tokenized RWAs into onchain systems.

Standard Chartered further suggested that if Uniswap can “commercialise enough” and secure enough TradFi partnerships to scale, its market cap-to-transaction fees multiple could rise—potentially narrowing the gap with Coinbase, according to the bank’s framing.

What to watch next

For investors and builders, the next signal will be whether tokenized assets increasingly find meaningful DeFi usage—moving beyond issuance headlines into sustained liquidity, cross-venue trading efficiency, and deeper integrations with major market participants. Standard Chartered’s forecast may be directionally aligned with tokenization trends, but the durability of that growth will likely hinge on whether fragmentation and liquidity limitations can be reduced as adoption accelerates.

Bitcoin has reclaimed the $66,000 level after remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump and reports of a tentative U.S.-Iran peace agreement revived risk appetite across global markets.

According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) climbed nearly 5% to an intraday high of roughly $66,829 on June 15 before settling near $66,460 at press time. 

Bitcoin price rallied following comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who wrote on Truth Social that ships carrying oil were once again moving through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy supplies.

“Ships are starting to move, many loaded up with Oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz. They are going along the Southern “Highway,” which is totally safe, secure, and pristine. There are other areas of travel, also!!!”

The comments arrived shortly after reports that the U.S. and Iran had reached a tentative peace agreement expected to reduce risks surrounding the strategic waterway.

Crude oil fell about 5.7% to below $80 per barrel, hitting its lowest level in two months and unwinding part of the geopolitical risk premium that had built up during recent weeks. The decline eased concerns about renewed inflationary pressure and helped improve appetite for risk assets after a difficult start to June.

Institutional flows also showed early signs of stabilization. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $85.9 million in net inflows after five consecutive days of withdrawals. Even so, the rebound remains limited in scope. According to SoSoValue data, the funds have recorded positive flows on just two trading days since May 15 and have collectively lost roughly $5.71 billion over the past five weeks.

Alongside the return of ETF demand, corporate accumulation re-emerged as a source of support. As reported by crypto.news, Strategy disclosed the purchase of 1,587 BTC worth approximately $100 million, just two weeks after its first reported Bitcoin sale in years raised questions about whether the company’s long-standing accumulation strategy was changing.

The latest acquisition helped restore confidence among investors who viewed the earlier sale as a potential sign of weakening institutional conviction.

Bitcoin breaks above key resistance as short sellers unwind

On the daily chart, Bitcoin has reclaimed a major support-turned-resistance zone near $65,150 that had repeatedly acted as a pivot throughout March and April. Bitcoin price has now moved back above that level after briefly falling below $60,000 during last week’s sell-off.

Momentum indicators have improved alongside the recovery. The daily MACD has produced a bullish crossover while its histogram has turned positive for the first time since the June decline began. Chaikin Money Flow has also recovered from deeply negative territory, suggesting capital is returning to the market after weeks of distribution.

The four-hour chart shows Bitcoin breaking out from a descending trendline that had capped price action since late May. Bulls have also pushed the asset above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $66,402, placing the next resistance zone around $68,640, which aligns with the 50% retracement level. Beyond that, the $70,880 region represents another key hurdle.

Derivatives activity accelerated the move. CoinGlass data showed more than $556.5 million in crypto liquidations over the past 24 hours, including roughly $459.9 million from short positions. 

Bitcoin alone accounted for approximately $168.7 million in short liquidations compared with about $23 million from longs, highlighting the scale of the squeeze as traders rushed to cover bearish bets.

Liquidation heatmaps also show dense clusters of leverage concentrated between $67,000 and $68,000. Those zones could act as magnets for price if momentum continues, while substantial liquidity remains below the market around the $64,500-$65,000 area.

On-chain data suggests buyers have returned after Bitcoin’s correction to the $60,000 region. According to Glassnode, accumulation trend scores have increased across multiple wallet cohorts following the recent decline. The firm noted that supply is being absorbed after the move lower, a development that historically accompanies periods of renewed demand.

Options positioning presents another supportive factor. Glassnode observed that Bitcoin has moved back into a dense cluster of options exposure around the $65,000 strike, where dealer hedging flows may help stabilize price action after recent volatility.

Fed uncertainty and $65K support remain critical

Not all analysts view the move as a confirmed trend reversal. Commenting on the rally, crypto analyst Ted Pillows argued that recent price action looked more like a liquidity grab than a decisive breakout.

“If $BTC can maintain strength above $65,000, a move toward the $68,000-$70,000 range is possible.”

Despite the bullish price action, Pillows said the overall market trend remains bearish until further confirmation appears.

A different view came from crypto analyst Scott Melker, who pointed to Bitcoin’s repeated defense of its 200-week moving average and a bullish divergence on the weekly RSI. Melker noted that similar conditions have historically appeared near major market bottoms.

Attention now turns to next week’s Federal Reserve meeting on June 16-17. Any indication from policymakers that inflation remains a concern despite the recent decline in oil prices could weigh on risk assets and challenge Bitcoin’s recovery.

From a technical standpoint, a sustained move back below $65,000 would weaken the recent breakout and place the $63,200-$64,000 support region back into focus.

From a technical perspective, a move back below $65,000 would place the reclaimed support zone at risk and expose Bitcoin to another test of the $63,200-$64,000 area, where the recent breakout structure would begin to weaken.